Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis?

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Outlook is more important than historical performance

A perfect example is BlueScope Steel

Former market darling; earnings heaps of cash

I own Bluescope, and it has gone up 19% since I bought it. Excellent purchase even though some analysts predicted it would be the worst stock in the ASX50 this year.

Which other stocks do you not recommend? I'm in the mood to buy.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

And thats exactly why you are happy with 12% a year

WHAT A COMPANY HAS DONE IN THE PAST WILL NOT DRIVE THE SHARE PRICE

12% per year will give me $9M in investments alone before I retire, and I will retire early.

You want more than that?

 

[Julia]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

12% per year will give me $9M in investments alone before I retire, and I will retire early.

You want more than that?

If you are happy with 12%, particularly for the last couple of years, it just might be a good idea to consider some of the alternative approaches various members have put forward on this thread.

Julia

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

If you are happy with 12%, particularly for the last couple of years,

Well last year I would not be happy with 12% of course.

12% is for every year averaged, last year was too easy and will cover for worse years to come...

 

[bunyip]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Hi Ed

Regarding your 70 odd positions and your heavy workload.......
I don't doubt that you're doing well, however I won't ask you to prove it by providing details of your trades or divulging your percentage return on your account - I respect your right to keep your private business private.
But I find myself wondering if perhaps you could do a lot less work and give yourself a lot less stress, yet still achieve excellent returns.
Over the last 10 years I've tried various strategies to profit from the market, including longer term fundamentally based investing. Depending on the method, I've spent anything from all day every day at the computer, to just an hour or so once a week.
The strategy that's given me the best results with the least amount of stress is a trend riding approach from weekly charts, based on finding the best performing sectors, (or worst performing sectors in a bear market) then focusing on the outperforming stocks within those sectors.
Even during sideways markets I've been able to find at least one or two sectors that are trending strongly either up or down, and no shortage of strongly trending stocks within those sectors. And that's without going outside the blue chips.
An example is the US Energy sector which was very bullish over the last few years even while the S & P 500 was drifting more or less sideways for lengthy periods.
What I'm suggesting, Ed, is that if you ever find yourself burning out from your heavy workload, you might want to investigate the more laid back approach of working from weekly charts and spending just an hour or two at your computer each weekend.
I'll believe you'd find this approach would lower your workload and stress levels considerably, but still produce excellent returns.

Bunyip

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Finally a bit of luck for me today.

I bought CDO for $3.40 a couple of weeks ago. It is $4.25 today.

Takeover!

Nice return. Buying undervalued companies works!!

 

[bullmarket]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

good luck with them if in fact you really did buy some

 

[eddievanhalen]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Hi Ed

Regarding your 70 odd positions and your heavy workload.......
I don't doubt that you're doing well, however I won't ask you to prove it by providing details of your trades or divulging your percentage return on your account - I respect your right to keep your private business private.
But I find myself wondering if perhaps you could do a lot less work and give yourself a lot less stress, yet still achieve excellent returns.
Over the last 10 years I've tried various strategies to profit from the market, including longer term fundamentally based investing. Depending on the method, I've spent anything from all day every day at the computer, to just an hour or so once a week.
The strategy that's given me the best results with the least amount of stress is a trend riding approach from weekly charts, based on finding the best performing sectors, (or worst performing sectors in a bear market) then focusing on the outperforming stocks within those sectors.
Even during sideways markets I've been able to find at least one or two sectors that are trending strongly either up or down, and no shortage of strongly trending stocks within those sectors. And that's without going outside the blue chips.
An example is the US Energy sector which was very bullish over the last few years even while the S & P 500 was drifting more or less sideways for lengthy periods.
What I'm suggesting, Ed, is that if you ever find yourself burning out from your heavy workload, you might want to investigate the more laid back approach of working from weekly charts and spending just an hour or two at your computer each weekend.
I'll believe you'd find this approach would lower your workload and stress levels considerably, but still produce excellent returns.

Bunyip

What you say has some merit Bunyip and that is the intention in a few years. I expect that by the time I am 35yo I will have the capital base I feel I need (being extremely conservative) to be able to retire properly and only spend one day a week working on shares. However until I reach my goal I am happy to continue doing the hard yards and wringing every last dollar out of the market...........especially seeing I'm recently married and we could very shortly be relying solely on my trading income if you know what I mean.

I spent 1-2 years managing things on a weekly basis quite a while ago and the returns were satisfactory for sure. As I mentioned earlier I have been through a long progression from "buy and hold" FA only to TA based futures trader to weekly share trader to full time active manager (shares). Having done them all I can guarantee you I wouldn't be busting my gut if it wasn't improving my returns considerably.

What you have said makes perfect sense though and is part of the longer term plan.

Cheers,

Ed

 

[bunyip]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

What you say has some merit Bunyip and that is the intention in a few years. I expect that by the time I am 35yo I will have the capital base I feel I need (being extremely conservative) to be able to retire properly and only spend one day a week working on shares. However until I reach my goal I am happy to continue doing the hard yards and wringing every last dollar out of the market...........especially seeing I'm recently married and we could very shortly be relying solely on my trading income if you know what I mean.

I spent 1-2 years managing things on a weekly basis quite a while ago and the returns were satisfactory for sure. As I mentioned earlier I have been through a long progression from "buy and hold" FA only to TA based futures trader to weekly share trader to full time active manager (shares). Having done them all I can guarantee you I wouldn't be busting my gut if it wasn't improving my returns considerably.

What you have said makes perfect sense though and is part of the longer term plan.

Cheers,

Ed

Fair enough Ed, your thinking is sound enough. I hope it all works out for you. If you can be pretty much retired by the age of 35, just working one day or less per week, then you will have achieved what very few people achieve.
I wish you well.

Cheers
Bunyip

 

[Julia]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Eddie

Re your post from yesterday which was very interesting, in particular this line

" I do hold a few "blue chips" but not many are acceptable to me.

Could you say why not many blue chips are acceptable to you, and if you mean "acceptable for relatively frequent trading", "for long term investing" or some other option?

Could you also if possible suggest which ones you do find acceptable for which situations?

With thanks

Julia

 

[eddievanhalen]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Hi Julia,

The term "blue chip" I suppose is a bit open to interpretation and everyone has their own idea. Some people would say maybe the top 10-20 stocks, some might say the top 100 and I have read someone somewhere saying technically it should be anything in the All ords. To me I tend to think of it in terms of the top 20-50 or so.

Well bearing in mind I am a "trader" AND an "investor"..........

With my trading hat on I find that not many of the top 50 trend in a way that suits me -just personal preference. They are just a bit too volatile for my liking and get thrown around like rag dolls half the time according to how the institutions view the nights action overseas. What I term "second tier bluechips" such as a WOR, JBH, BOQ, CTX etc........tend to move in a more predictable fashion, are less at the mercy of the instos and allow me to make clearer decisions. It's really only the top 50 I don't tend to "trade" - anything else is fair game. Having said that I did make an exception and buy BHP last week.


With my investors hat on it's pretty simple. In most cases (ruling out rare events like the current resources boom and related action in BHP,RIO etc...) the larger companies have their biggest growth behind them. Take HVN as an example. Still a great company, well managed etc............but a dinosaur that has a hard time getting up any speed and is trading at less than it was 6 years ago. A rapidly growing company like HVN from 1996 to 2000 is what interests me.............buying tomorrow's blue chips today. Hmmm...........sounds like a good slogan for my managed fund


Once again it comes down to how high you set your sights in terms of expected returns. Blue chips (eg the banks in recent times) can provide more than satisfactory returns for the average Joe that cannot it here all day like I do - even better when combined with margin. If ,however , you're doing it for a living or permanent part-time and are prepared to scour the small to midcaps accounts for the odd gem (a HVN/FLT in its infancy for example) then "blue chip" returns pale in comparison. Easier said than done ofcourse and some would say more risky ** etc........ but well worth the trouble IMO and also quite enjoyable for someone who likes the research.

Cheers,

Ed


** despite what some would say I would argue that a small-mid cap that is making nice,growing profits without debt is probably safer than holding a "blue chip" like Telstra .........or HIH A good example in recent years would be COU.

PS I realise HVN has provided nice returns in recent months but I'm talking more in terms of the "life cycle" of a company.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

good luck with them if in fact you really did buy some

No, Once a year I read the paper and find a share that went up (a bit) and I tell everyone I bought it just to pretend I'm a smart investor.

Oh dear oh dear....

 

[bullmarket]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

no problem realist

it's already well documented that I don't blindly believe unsubstantiated/unverifiable claims in chatrooms and why, so I'm not jumping on that merry-go-round again here

If for some obscure reason it's important to you that I personally believe you then my earlier posts describe what I need to be convinced.

In the mean time - if you did really buy some then good luck with them

cheers

bullmarket

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Fair enough BullMarket, I agree with you not believing other peoples claims.

CDO is the typical stock I would buy though, it makes a profit year after year and is (was) undervalued. Exactly what I buy!

If I told you I bought PDN 3 years ago - that would be suspicious.

Asuming I did by CDO - what should I do?

I bought them with a longterm view - if I sell them now I get hammered with tax. But I can offset that by selling a couple of my losers - and now is the perfect time, one week before Financial year end?

Would you sell or hold in my position. I'm sure most would say sell.

I'd like some money back as well - I wanna buy a car.

 

[cuttlefish]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Fair enough BullMarket, I agree with you not believing other peoples claims.

CDO is the typical stock I would buy though, it makes a profit year after year and is (was) undervalued. Exactly what I buy!

If I told you I bought PDN 3 years ago - that would be suspicious.

Asuming I did by CDO - what should I do?

I bought them with a longterm view - if I sell them now I get hammered with tax. But I can offset that by selling a couple of my losers - and now is the perfect time, one week before Financial year end?

Would you sell or hold in my position. I'm sure most would say sell.

I'd like some money back as well - I wanna buy a car.

haha - sounds like you could do with a slightly more structured plan - maybe if you put some metrics around your valuations then your plan would give you the exit signals (and entry signals).

Also mightn't be a bad idea to separate the investment funds from the lifestyle funds no?

 

[Julia]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

no problem realist

it's already well documented that I don't blindly believe unsubstantiated/unverifiable claims in chatrooms and why, so I'm not jumping on that merry-go-round again here

If for some obscure reason it's important to you that I personally believe you then my earlier posts describe what I need to be convinced.

In the mean time - if you did really buy some then good luck with them

cheers

bullmarket

bullmarket

I think we've all got the message. Perhaps you could consider not making a post about your disbelief every time someone happens to mention having bought something. It adds nothing useful to the general discussion, and is frankly irritating.

With thanks

Julia

 

[bullmarket]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

hi realist

re:

Would you sell or hold in my position.

If you did actually buy some then just simply do what your trading plans tells you to do.

cheers

bullmarket

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

haha - sounds like you could do with a slightly more structured plan - maybe if you put some metrics around your valuations then your plan would give you the exit signals (and entry signals).

Bollocks.

My plan was to buy and hold. Nothing more!! (piss off traders I know your thoughts on this )

They've rocketed quickly, time to change plans.

Sell, and cut some other losers from myportfoilo - just before Financial year end. I hate tax but this will even me out nicely.

I put a sell order for $4.35 - the price peaked at $4.34 and has gone down.

 

[cuttlefish]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Ok so if I understand your strategy it is to find stocks that you feel are undervalued, then buy them and hold them forever, unless you feel they've risen by a lot in which case you'll sell them, and you'll also sell them if they've fallen in price and its near tax time and you want to buy a car.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Ok so if I understand your strategy it is to find stocks that you feel are undervalued, then buy them and hold them forever, unless you feel they've risen by a lot in which case you'll sell them, and you'll also sell them if they've fallen in price and its near tax time and you want to buy a car.

I'll always sell stocks when they become overvalued. I just sold CDO at $4.35. My first sale in years. Time will tell if that was a good sale.

And yes I will sell stocks if I wanna buy a car, or for tax reasons - in this case both.

Otherwise I hold....


What is your selling strategy? (I admit mine is poor - I rely on buying well not selling well)