Where are all the bears now?

[Gringotts Bank]

What I'm trying to get at is.... what is the current read on sentiment? It's not extreme I don't think. Very positive but not extreme. So buy the dips.

 

[tinhat]

What I'm trying to get at is.... what is the current read on sentiment? It's not extreme I don't think. Very positive but not extreme. So buy the dips.

The last time I started putting trailing stop losses across a large proportion of my portfolio was in early 2011 and that served me well (not that all my subsequent decisions did!). I'd be quiet happy to be stopped out of a lot of my positions at the moment (except for those I'm holding for income). I suspect though that there will be another leg up some time this year. I just hope it all happens before Easter so I can chill for a while. The last couple of years have been a roller-coaster.

No stop losses yet, but I've got a few rising sell conditional orders in with my broker.

 

[So_Cynical]

Have decided to complete the 3 open trades i have that are in profit, was going to let 2 of em run but changed my mind, gona take 20K out and sit on the side lines for a while...wait.

 

[Muschu]

Have decided to complete the 3 open trades i have that are in profit, was going to let 2 of em run but changed my mind, gona take 20K out and sit on the side lines for a while...wait.

Care to disclose which 3 trades SC? Interesting decision which I would like to follow. No expectations of course.

Regards

Rick

 

[So_Cynical]

Care to disclose which 3 trades SC? Interesting decision which I would like to follow. No expectations of course.

Regards

Rick

Actually just noticed that its 4 open trades in profit, just that NHC isn't in enough profit (Currently 5.69%) to complete the trade.

PTM 16.8% profit, BSA 17.4% profit, CPU 11.6% profit,

CPU and PTM are both trades that i have been in for over 2 years, both with multiple average downs...18% of the portfolio value tied up in them....keep in mind Rick that i have a hopeless record for picking tops, i just cant see this rally going much above the last two tops (5000).

 

[skc]

What I'm trying to get at is.... what is the current read on sentiment? It's not extreme I don't think. Very positive but not extreme. So buy the dips.

Yup. "Not extreme" sums it up well.

Individual stocks may suffer from missed results this month, but those that offer income will be bid back up before long.

There are no major risks on the horizon until May - where the debt ceiling will re-surface and Fed may wind back QE. But until then, I don't think 5000 will offer much resistance. It will probably shoot past it for a couple hundred points just to make it a nice bull trap come May.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Sentiment is clearly 'risk ignore' while the 'forced' rotation into equities continues as freshly printed money burns holes in pockets while looking for yield.

And the sustainable annualised rate is....?

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 6.1 percent this year after advancing 13 percent in 2012.

The Dow is still only 350 pts from the previous September high.....

It's a one way valve as lot's of sweaty (and leveraged to the hilt) trigger fingers lay ready to hit the sell button at the first signs that the party is over, whenever that is......and the final chapter of wealth destruction commences?

According to a Bloomberg report, hedge-fund leverage is at its highest level since 2004. At the same time, investors have started taking on more margin debt, which stands at its highest level since early 2008. It seems like the money is flowing into stocks, which should be bullish for equities. Looking at the statistics, however, provides a more sobering view. Here's what you should consider doing.

While most investors would see the current leverage as a sign of strength, John Hussman of the Hussman Funds reviews the statistics. What he found is that stock margin debt is more than 2% of GDP. That may not sound like a big deal, but this level of margin debt has only been seen three times according to Hussman: “the 2000 market peak, the 2007 market peak, and the intermediate market peak of February 2011 (not a terrible outcome, but still followed by an 18% decline in the S&P 500 over the following 7 months).”

Margin debt is fueling the market rally, and the investors behind the wheel have no fear.
Consider the Risk Aversion Index.

By this composite measure, investors are more complacent than they were at the 1987 top, just before the biggest crash since 1929; the 2000 top, which in real terms has never been exceeded; and the 2006-2008 top, when real estate, stocks and commodities all registered their all-time highs in nominal terms.

Federal Reserve board members on a hunting trip......

 

[Knobby22]

Margin levels in Australia are still low. Interest rates are falling. There are a number of forces here causing the rise.
The Australian economy is doing well. The real story will be told with the profit reports.

Is it merely a short term bull market that will be enveloped by a larger bear market? We shall see but if you have been out of the market since mid last year, you have missed a lot. Even the Depression had good opportunities to make money in short term bull markets between the secular bear markets.

I am not convinced that we are still in a bear market. Asia is firing. The emerging countries around the world seem to be doing well The USA is re-inventing itself as it always does and Europe - well they are the fly in the ointment. No one really knows what will happen next so I am going with the flow...for now. I've been heavily invested since late October.

 

[white_goodman]

Margin levels in Australia are still low. Interest rates are falling. There are a number of forces here causing the rise.
The Australian economy is doing well. The real story will be told with the profit reports.

Is it merely a short term bull market that will be enveloped by a larger bear market? We shall see but if you have been out of the market since mid last year, you have missed a lot. Even the Depression had good opportunities to make money in short term bull markets between the secular bear markets.

I am not convinced that we are still in a bear market. Asia is firing. The emerging countries around the world seem to be doing well The USA is re-inventing itself as it always does and Europe - well they are the fly in the ointment. No one really knows what will happen next so I am going with the flow...for now. I've been heavily invested since late October.

+1

I even had the same timing with Sept/October ha

 

[Tyler Durden]

Good to know I have some support:

US stocks fell, driving the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its biggest decline of the year, on concern that the European debt crisis may intensify and a smaller-than-forecast increase in American factory orders.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/us-stocks-slump-on-renewed-europe-fears-20130205-2dv9p.html

 

[Muschu]

Actually just noticed that its 4 open trades in profit, just that NHC isn't in enough profit (Currently 5.69%) to complete the trade.

PTM 16.8% profit, BSA 17.4% profit, CPU 11.6% profit,

CPU and PTM are both trades that i have been in for over 2 years, both with multiple average downs...18% of the portfolio value tied up in them....keep in mind Rick that i have a hopeless record for picking tops, i just cant see this rally going much above the last two tops (5000).

Thanks for response SC...appreciated

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Monday - to infinity & beyond.
Tuesday - yes, but what about ******?
Wednesday - don't worry about that, just buy.
Thursday - yes, but what about ******?

 

[Porper]

Monday - to infinity & beyond.
Tuesday - yes, but what about ******?
Wednesday - don't worry about that, just buy.
Thursday - yes, but what about ******?

Uncle, your blinkered view is going to cost you dearly. You churn out as many negatives as you can while the stock market bounds along like a rocket. Yes, we maybe on borrowed time but why not profit from the current opportunities?

And please, no more DOW charts in Gold or any other bull**** commodity you care to throw at us. You'll be pricing the DOW in the cost of Possum skins before long just to feed your addiction to negativity.

You have been totally wrong in your doom & gloom outlook over the past few years...move on and join in on the profits available. We all know all is not well in the world but life and the markets will do what they've always done...prosper and continue to improve over the longer term.

 

[tech/a]

Uncle, your blinkered view is going to cost you dearly. You churn out as many negatives as you can while the stock market bounds along like a rocket. Yes, we maybe on borrowed time but why not profit from the current opportunities?

And please, no more DOW charts in Gold or any other bull**** commodity you care to throw at us. You'll be pricing the DOW in the cost of Possum skins before long just to feed your addiction to negativity.

You have been totally wrong in your doom & gloom outlook over the past few years...move on and join in on the profits available. We all know all is not well in the world but life and the markets will do what they've always done...prosper and continue to improve over the longer term.

Personally I agree with both of you.

I havent and wont venture into portfolio trading.
Because one morning we will find ourselves giving up a great deal of profit if not all
as the US finally pulls its debt driven head in.

But in the meantime there are profits there.
My solution has been Index futures FTSE specifically.
The odd quick moving equity.

No reason why you cant wear two hats.

 

[Knobby22]

To be fair Uncle Festivus did call the initial GFC crash.

 

[FlyingFox]

Personally I agree with both of you.

I havent and wont venture into portfolio trading.
Because one morning we will find ourselves giving up a great deal of profit if not all
as the US finally pulls its debt driven head in.

But in the meantime there are profits there.
My solution has been Index futures FTSE specifically.
The odd quick moving equity.

No reason why you cant wear two hats.

+1.

 

[white_goodman]

To be fair Uncle Festivus did call the initial GFC crash.

broken clock yada yada

 

[explod]

http://www.lombardifinancial.com/re...Alert/index.php?dept=PC&sb=BAR&sdate=02052013

If you put up the charts, have a bit of a read of the economic factors from other sources to back this up I think some of you may save yourselves.

Tick up to Uncle and tech/a as what he knows and trades in short spurts will hold him. Not for the newbie or inexperienced IMHO.

No more than June I'd say and the drop over the next six months on the Dow following that will be in excess of 50%, (I am calling August to February as the main falling period) and more than last time. Can no longer drop interest rates to further stimulate, inflation creeping in around the edges, banks in the Euro region going under. Whwew, could go on, but look about objectively, where is the content within reasoning for the case for continued stock market rises?

Be interesting to see what can be found.

 

[Aussiejeff]

http://www.lombardifinancial.com/re...Alert/index.php?dept=PC&sb=BAR&sdate=02052013

If you put up the charts, have a bit of a read of the economic factors from other sources to back this up I think some of you may save yourselves.

Tick up to Uncle and tech/a as what he knows and trades in short spurts will hold him. Not for the newbie or inexperienced IMHO.

No more than June I'd say and the drop over the next six months on the Dow following that will be in excess of 50%, (I am calling August to February as the main falling period) and more than last time. Can no longer drop interest rates to further stimulate, inflation creeping in around the edges, banks in the Euro region going under. Whwew, could go on, but look about objectively, where is the content within reasoning for the case for continued stock market rises?

Be interesting to see what can be found.

....thousands of rotting Bear carcasses washed up on the shores of the Lucky Country. Apparently all drowned by a t$unami of cheap ca$h.

 

[brty]

Explod, from your link....

Every morning, I wake up and ask this one question: when will Germany come to its senses and pull out of the euro? After all, Germany is the only real engine of the European Economic Community

Whenever I read such garbage, I really do have to question the knowledge of the author.

Germany is the last economy that would want to leave the euro. The low euro makes German exports relatively cheap, if they left the euro there would be a big hit on the economy as a revalued Dmark would curb exports, simple economics 101.