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Weekly Portfolio - ASX

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Perhaps ROC and ATR together? ATR is just a measure of volatility, which can be in either direction.

Let me know how those sim's go!
 
MovingAverage said:
My initial thoughts would be to base position size on something like rate of change (ROC) of the individual stock instead of based on sector index--interesting to see how ROC compares to a conventional approach such as ATR. Either way, would make for an interesting analysis via simulations I reckon :xyxthumbs
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This is what I did - deliberately bought all the major players in sectors, sat on them for a bit, then torched the lowest performing stocks.

I got 4/5 right doing absolutely *no* research into why they weren't performing at ALL, and the 5th only matched its competitor's gains after I sold/made no net difference at seeing as I pumped the sale money into the other anyway.

I said this in another thread but some companies are getting slammed SIGNIFICANTLY harder than others in particular sectors. Obviously you can do your research to hopefully pick the right ones, or you can do what I did and whilst maybe lose a few (net) gains/cop a few more fees, save yourself a ton of time with which you can work on something else.
 
over9k said:
This is what I did - deliberately bought all the major players in sectors, sat on them for a bit, then torched the lowest performing stocks.

I got 4/5 right doing absolutely *no* research into why they weren't performing at ALL, and the 5th only matched its competitor's gains after I sold/made no net difference at seeing as I pumped the sale money into the other anyway.

I said this in another thread but some companies are getting slammed SIGNIFICANTLY harder than others in particular sectors. Obviously you can do your research to hopefully pick the right ones, or you can do what I did and whilst maybe lose a few (net) gains/cop a few more fees, save yourself a ton of time with which you can work on something else.
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You understand that in an irrational bull market, Here is a time where we have a laggards catch up phase ?
So unless you manage this discretionarily, you should continuously repeat your process reintroducing the eliminated losers,...
 
Nah that's the thing - the losers didn't bounce back. It's not like they were just more volatile on the up as well as the downside or something. They *didn't* recover when the others improved.

Only one of them increased again and it was only by the same amount as its competitor, so spending the sale money buying its competitor meant that the final result was exactly the same, and the other 4/5 I ended up waaaay up on (relatively speaking).

I'm itching to get into a mining position again but I'm anticipating more outbreaks in china yet so just have to sit & wait. My gold miners are up massively though.
 
over9k said:
This is what I did - deliberately bought all the major players in sectors, sat on them for a bit, then torched the lowest performing stocks.
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I'm thinking of a slightly different approach to what it sounds like you're doing--using sector rotation to rank sectors and then only buy in the top X ranked sectors only--not buying across all sectors which is what I think you're suggesting you do. What I'm think is, assume there are 10 sectors, rank those sectors based on some metric and then only buy in say the top 3 ranked sectors. A very crude way of ranking the sectors may be based on the RSI of the index for each of those sectors. You could rank sectors many different ways but a lot of rotational systems seem to use RSI. Periodically I would re-rank the sectors and only buy in the top 3 ranked sectors.
 
Nah I analyse sectors, buy into what I think are the best sectors in a fairly diverse fashion (depending on how many players there are obviously), then nuke the non-performers. I effectively bet on sectors and then trim/refine my position by company.

So I start with best sectors/industries, then end up (eventually) at best companies per sector. I have quite a good discussion going on with a couple of other guys in a couple of other threads (trading the trend, trading the bounce, economic implications of a sars/coronavirus outbreak) about what sectors are/aren't bull markets but for example, microchip manufacturers - intel & AMD have both been flat for a couple of months and I don't own anything in them now, but skyworks was/is a star performer. Same goes with zoom, which is miles and miles above slack, despite them both being stay-at-home stocks.
 
Week 22:

Buy: None
Sell: None

OpenPL = +3.9%, total = -19.25%.

I was close to +8% until thursday took a huge hit to my stocks (in particular AEF). Overall my positions are doing very well though. This is only my 7th week of my index filter being on. I'm remaining positive in this crazy market.

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Warr87 said:
Week 22:

Buy: None
Sell: None

OpenPL = +3.9%, total = -19.25%.

I was close to +8% until thursday took a huge hit to my stocks (in particular AEF). Overall my positions are doing very well though. This is only my 7th week of my index filter being on. I'm remaining positive in this crazy market.

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Aef hit my results a big way too
If it helps, aef is victim of the super funds reducing their overall ethical investment?
 
are they? i haven't read any financial news lately. As a fund they aren't bad (I had some money in their funds before I started designing systems).

While it lost some ground this week I'm sure its going to go further.
 
MovingAverage said:
Monday is going to be ugly, so strap yourself in
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can't be as bad as march lol.

MovingAverage said:
i'm with you. i thought in these highly PC times they were all for things that were ethical. i know the big funds were winding back their exposure to coal, but AEF really--why are they on the nose?
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yea I'm with your thinking there. AEF has had pretty steady returns in their ethical funds too.
 
Warr87 said:
can't be as bad as march lol.



yea I'm with your thinking there. AEF has had pretty steady returns in their ethical funds too.
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For AEF down 21% in a week, the only explanation I can find is exodus from super fund;
Both my wife and I had some super in the ethical investment option, all back to cash last week and I am probably not the only one, so here it goes...that was my reasoning, anyway, just one code
 
MovingAverage said:
very true, march was nasty. must admit the up one day down the next is doing my head in
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It's more the scale of the volatility than anything. 2, 3, 4% swings per day have become *normal*. Depending on the sector it can be in the double digits. It's reopening numbers fighting with virus numbers. We'd seen serious chop for the past few weeks with the market as a whole ending up basically flat but there's now a trend change and it's only going to get worse.

There's going to be plenty more ugly virus data for the next week but the big thing I'm hanging out for is jobs data on the 3rd. If that's bad (and I reckon it will be), combine that with the virus data, the IMF's global and U.S economic downgrades (from 3% contraction to 4.9%), mortgage delinquencies now spiking, and wall st now actively calling for the already planned 2nd stimulus package to be brought forward and I'm tipping a virtual certainty of stimulus to follow it.

Either way, buying the day before it is looking like a good bet - either the jobs data will be good (not likely) and we'll see a spike or it'll be bad and you just hold (or buy more) and then bounce on the stimulus.
 
Yeah you could trade the chop and basically buy/sell on a daily basis as there's just been chop for the last few weeks (I've been slowly buying the dips on aus based travel stocks to fill a long position) but I was saying weeks ago that U.S WILL get a 2nd wave and 2nd market slump and people are still ignoring me even now. It's very simple exponentials.

I have a fair bit of cash ready & waiting because oooh boy the next week is going to be ugly.

The other thing to think about is seasonality - U.S/northern hemisphere is over the hill of summer now so is due for an overall contraction anyway but the southern hemisphere is not so we can expect a decent pickup in at least domestic travel and economic activity down here whereas up there it's going to be non-existent. I haven't and wouldn't be thinking about *anything* other than stay-at-home tech. It's going to be armageddon.

The one that always gets me is australian market irrationality - things here will still follow the U.S movements even when they have almost nothing to do with the U.S market. It makes it (relatively) predictable but god it's annoying.
 
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