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WDS - Woodside Energy Group

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Tyre Kicker said:
Citi are, well, a funny mob.

In April this year, Citi put a sell on the Big 4 banks with their price targets as follows:

ANZ $26
CBA $82
NAB $25.75
WBC $22.25

6 months later and CBA and WBC sp are up 30% since the sell call.

Ouch!
Click to expand...
funny wasn't the word i thought of with Citi

i suspect their bigger customers ( the ones that pay subscriptions ) are big short-sellers ( who get a week's warning on the downgrade )

but if the price moves in a way i can benefit , all the better
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I'd never recommend buying the dip in WDS. I've been damaged too many times before. There are no depths to which the board of WDS will not descend to destroy value in this company. Then there is the Oil Price.

gg
Click to expand...
Hey GG,
I haven’t followed WDS very closely at all over the years, so I don’t know the details, but what are the things Management have done to destroy value?
 
Tyre Kicker said:
Citi are, well, a funny mob.

In April this year, Citi put a sell on the Big 4 banks with their price targets as follows:

ANZ $26
CBA $82
NAB $25.75
WBC $22.25

6 months later and CBA and WBC sp are up 30% since the sell call.

Ouch!
Click to expand...
This usually occurs because CITI or maybe some of its clients wants to take some largish stakes in the banks.
Put out a BS sell target and buy the stock cheaply.
When they have had enough, just reverse the roles and start again.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
This usually occurs because CITI or maybe some of its clients wants to take some largish stakes in the banks.
Put out a BS sell target and buy the stock cheaply.
When they have had enough, just reverse the roles and start again.
Mick
Click to expand...

When I read a bank or ratings agency put a buy on something, I read or watch The Big Short.
 
Value Collector said:
Hey GG,
I haven’t followed WDS very closely at all over the years, so I don’t know the details, but what are the things Management have done to destroy value?
Click to expand...
Thanks VC, mate, @Value Collector , good question. I sometimes get so used to bollocking companies I don’t reflect on why.

Governance … Chair and board need a clean out.
Ill Advised purchase of expensive oil assets
Overseeing destruction of share price
Lowering it from a good dividend stock for a smsf.

Feni Fido Fini. I’ve got a new iPhone which won’t let me type proper.

gg
 
I understand where you are coming from. Although the good thing is that since most oil and gas stocks globally are undervalued at the moment if they decide to make any acquisitions currently the price will likely be reasonable. Although yes that risk longer-term is still there. Though to be fair most major commodity companies have really dumb management that buy assets high and then sell low. A quick look at the history of BHP, Rio, Newmont, etc will confirm this.
 
Its not even purely relegated to commodity companies.

I would say most major corporations run by non owner operators i.e. professional management do a bunch of dumb ****. Because its not their own money on the line.

Just in Australia outside of resources you have NAB's foray into the U.K. market which ended in multi-billion dollar write downs, Suncorp mismanaged its banking operations for a long time before selling them to ANZ, CBAs foray into the fintech/banking in South Africa and Asia which ended badly, Bunnings acquisiton in the U.K. market, Woolworths' Masters venture, Wesfarmers massively overpriced Coles acquisition in late 2007 right at the peak of the boom, AMPs multi decade woeful management which have made them irrelevant to consumers, Star Entertainments perennial failure to abide by regulation and their over-reliance on debt funding which led to huge destruction of value, Fairfax media back in the day had a string of dumb acquisitions,
 
My POV is that WDS formerly WPL had been on a long term downtrend since Shell sold their stake back in 2014 or thereabouts. Certainly the SP has struggled to even reach those 2014 highs.



From this historical post


Many factors as per alluded to including the regulatory manacles.
Not even absorbing BHP's oil/gas demergers has helped.

To my mind, a big factor and as with so many companies with Black Rock et all as a major stakeholder, WDS is just another company hobbled by ESG and the anti-carbon movement!
 
finicky said:
When they're running out of electricity and fuel it won't be (operational issues aside). Net zero will fail and Woodside is sitting in the box seat and paying dividends while we await that outcome.
(extract from theglibdigest.com)
Click to expand...
Too right and I'm just plain old enjoying the divvy building up my holding.
 
Market Matters morning report
Discusses Woodside. Also thumbnails on STO and BPT (neutral - difficult assets)

While our preferred scenario is that Oil prices ‘washout’ below $70, we believe oil and gas stocks are now “looking for a low,” a view reinforced by their stoic performance yesterday, considering the plunge in the oil price. The big question is: if/where is the risk/reward attractive and what stocks are top of the list.
Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) $24.28
Market heavyweight WDS has declined almost 22% year-to-date, but yesterday’s begrudging 1c retreat suggests some buying has resurfaced into the current weakness. We expect WDS will continue to payout 80% of profits, implying an FY24 div yield of over 8%, but falling toward 5% by FY26 with capex bills on the horizon. Hence, we don’t see it as the exciting yield play as looking at the “now,” would suggest. We see no compelling reason to buy WDS at current levels, but a washout on the downside would improve the risk/return.
  • We can see WDS trading between $23 and $27 over the coming 3-6 months.
WDS​
MM likes WDS around $23
​
CHART​
Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)
LAST UPDATED 29/10/2024​
 
I prefer to Hold with WDS. If the stock was to fall below $20, will buy more. Am not worried about permanent loss of capital. Am keen to see what the companies earning will be like in 2026 when all their new assets come online. The average price I paid for WDS was about $25.

You still make money with dividends anyway
 
ot to mention their appalling appra
Tyre Kicker said:
Citi are, well, a funny mob.

In April this year, Citi put a sell on the Big 4 banks with their price targets as follows:

ANZ $26
CBA $82
NAB $25.75
WBC $22.25

6 months later and CBA and WBC sp are up 30% since the sell call.

Ouch!
Click to expand...
Not to mention their appalling appraisal of JDO. double the price now than their value. FFS
 
Not too much happening with WDS this month. The ASX oil companies are all stuck in a bit of a funk.

The Trump presidency is likely to result in increased US oil production and more pressure on the oil price. Spiraling of the situations in the middle east and Ukraine would change this, but I'm hopeful that things will settle down there.
@debtfree
 

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Ferret said:
The Trump presidency is likely to result in increased US oil production and more pressure on the oil price.
Click to expand...
yes , but in what time-frame shale is quicker to ramp-up but needs a decent price to be profitable , but then maybe Trump slashes red tape and shale costs might be lower , normal crude takes longer ( unless you have a capped well waiting for a good price and/or infrastructure to help rapid transport )

the monkey wrench here could be the AUD which could spiral lower making WDS products cheaper than competitors ( but still profitable )

i hold WDS , but will watch and wait ( before selling or adding to the position )
 
UMike said:
The AUD is the only thing going for WDS at the moment.
Been a very disappointing year to say the least for WDS.
Click to expand...

yes , that is why i am watching and thinking

the position held is mostly courtesy of the BHP sell-off

but MAYBE they can deliver this time ( but am not holding my breath )
 
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