WDS - Woodside Energy Group

[rederob]

@rederob
Not that's it's relevent ATM but from memory, apart from the GFC fallout from the WPL peak in 2008, wasn't there a substantial sell down/out by a major WPL shareholder (Shell???) in play as well?
Perhaps that sell down came later but the WPL SP has languished for sometime since which, I've attributed in some part to the "climate change" mentally that is so prevalent.

So, are the days of having WPL as a sheet anchor in one's portfolio gone forever?
No, I don't think so, not with the BHP/WPL deal still to be finalised.

Coming back to the point in hand, this "special operation" or whatever Putin/Russia calls it (abhorrent as it is and I don't want to come across as callous in saying this) has certainly created some opportunities for the astute investor.

Yes, lots of water under the bridge since 2008, for sure.
As I read it, the biggest problem for oil/gas majors is the cost of exploration to maintain reserves which in turn maintain the company's share price. Looking for what's left to find has become progressively more expensive per barrel discovered. As a result, company profitability has been heavily reliant on a strong oil price, and that situation was thwarted first by OPEC's ability to manipulate prices and then by US unconventional oil which curbed OPEC's price fixing power.
Right now we are in uncharted waters.
Speculation is certainly driving POO right now, because nobody knows how bad the situation might get, nor for how long.
Interesting you mention climate change as I actually think vehicle electrification will be the real killer of oil price in years ahead.
As I have WPL, STO and BPT shares, this bump will be my opportunity to sell them in weeks to come - I hope!

 

[Craton]

Thanks @rederob and yes, OPEC and shale oil not withstanding, lots of factors in play acting upon oilers' SP.
I noted that according to the EIA, the US is set to become a net importer, albeit for a short time frame, adding to those uncharted waters.

Climate change is driving the change to EV across the global and so too, the take up of renewables and battery storage so yes, most certainly a huge dampener on the future of PoO.
Hell, even out here they testing old mine shafts to store compressed air to create renewable energy. Anything to get away from carbon consumption and creation...

WPL - I'll still hold but might dispose a few parcels if the SP is tempting enough. I'm fascinated, as an early adopter WPL's use of robotics could be a way forward down the time line.

STO - sold for a nice profit some years ago now.

BPT - missed the boat on that one, the shares were a mere 4c back when I started building the portfolio but I was highly risk averse and as s/brokering was $100 per trade at the time, well this pauper looked at the divvy providers, lol... Hindsight is so 20/20 eh!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

One person tells you the world is going to end or the War in Ukraine will lead to industrial stagnation and to sell oil shares.

The next tells you it is another Oil Shock a la the Saudi cousins' ravenous attack on Western wallets in the 70's and oil will hit all time highs.

The Gumnut Bowser test has been completed for Mid Feb-March and according to my eyes and my man on the inside from Chandigarh the price continues to rise.

The WPL price gained over $8 from $26 and now sits a bit down at $31.98.

To buy more or not to buy more, that is the question. WPL still owes me, so I'll not sell even though I have no idea what effect BHP giving WPL all it's oil assets will have on the price later this year.

Anywhere under $31 looks cheap.

It all depends on my man on the inside from Chandigarh and the Saudi cousins.

gg

 

[Ann]

To buy more or not to buy more, that is the question. WPL still owes me, so I'll not sell even though I have no idea what effect BHP giving WPL all it's oil assets will have on the price later this year.

Always the burning question GG. I have been in and out of this and made a few bob. Thinking it will be worth a bit more upside, the takeover of BHP oil interests may be the very catalyst for its upward travels. My swing trade calculation is looking at a bit over $70 as it stands at the moment, given the price doesn't fall back under the falling trendline, let's see how it goes. I have a few dollars earmarked for a buy back into WPL but would like to see it get a bit closer to the 200dsma before I buy back in, whether that be after a consolidation period or a fall and bounce back up off the 200sma. I am shocked to see I have never published a chart of WPL ever until today! I guess it always looked like such a loser for so long I would have been a constant bear, not kind to shareholders to always talk a company down.

However now I reckon it may be cheers, clink clink!

 

[Value Collector]

One person tells you the world is going to end or the War in Ukraine will lead to industrial stagnation and to sell oil shares.

The next tells you it is another Oil Shock a la the Saudi cousins' ravenous attack on Western wallets in the 70's and oil will hit all time highs.

The Gumnut Bowser test has been completed for Mid Feb-March and according to my eyes and my man on the inside from Chandigarh the price continues to rise.

The WPL price gained over $8 from $26 and now sits a bit down at $31.98.

To buy more or not to buy more, that is the question. WPL still owes me, so I'll not sell even though I have no idea what effect BHP giving WPL all it's oil assets will have on the price later this year.

Anywhere under $31 looks cheap.

It all depends on my man on the inside from Chandigarh and the Saudi cousins.

View attachment 139029

gg

Another question to ask yourself is whether it’s best to buy WPL directly, or buy BHP.

 

[sptrawler]

Another question to ask yourself is whether it’s best to buy WPL directly, or buy BHP.

Good point WPL has had a run since the announcement and the run up in oil price, do you think BHP price has factored in the loss of revenue already and their price run is due to the free WPL shares?
I wonder if the question is, how long is your investment horizon.

 

[divs4ever]

assuming the BHP-WPL goes ahead i will basically quadruple the current WPL holding

the reason i hold ( currently ) significantly more BHP than WPL is mainly because WPL been fairly disappointing to me

the current temptation for me is to take some profit ( investment cash ) out of the WPL while i am still in front

and possibly keep the cash for later ( extra BHP or WPL ) depending how the market reacts to the deal ( remember SOME are saying SOME instos and fundies will be obliged to divest those free WPL shares ) ( and BHP will be a less profitable company in the near term )

if such a worry was a concern would WPL do a share buy-back to protect the share price ??

 

[Gunnerguy]

Going YOLO WPL tomorrow.
Maybe STO also.
Selling WPL puts and buying WPL calls at $30/$31/$32. WPL SP Will be $40 in 1-2 months.
Looking forward, which is the purpose of an investor. WPL and STO will provide significant gains in next few months.
Going full in with WPL maybe STO BOPT OOO FUEL.
Gunnerguy.

 

[Value Collector]

Good point WPL has had a run since the announcement and the run up in oil price, do you think BHP price has factored in the loss of revenue already and their price run is due to the free WPL shares?
I wonder if the question is, how long is your investment horizon.

View attachment 139055


View attachment 139056

I am not sure I haven’t actually done the math on it yet.

 

[Ann]

I want to buy back into WPL but it is too far away from the 200dMAs. Just noticed a bearish Island Top pattern. Hoping this may offer some reasonable downside, perhaps a lot closer to those aforementioned MAs. I have only rarely had success with Island Tops resolving downward unlike bullish Island Bottoms which are one of my fave indicators!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

BHP and WPL have come out of the bushes with announcements.

Some of them are over 200 pages long.

Too much reading for this little cut n thrust.

From the AFR.

KPMG said a Woodside share would have an underlying value of between $25.25 and $29.81 if the deal progresses, more than the $23.09 to $26.42 that a Woodside share would be worth if the merger did not proceed.

Has anyone got any ideas on whether WPL taking over BHP's petroleum assets is good for WPL?

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

BHP and WPL have come out of the bushes with announcements.

Has anyone got any ideas on whether WPL taking over BHP's petroleum assets is good for WPL?

A line has to be drawn, a date chosen, to price assets.

Since then the PoO has risen, so it would be understandable that the valuations look attractive now.

[to me it will be an asset allocation issue]

 

[Craton]

From the WPL 21 page PDF ASX announcement.

Share Consideration
914,768,948 New Woodside Shares issued to BHP, with subsequent distribution to BHP shareholders1

BHP Shareholders receive ~0.1807 new Woodside shares per BHP share2

Pro forma equity ownership of approximately 52% Woodside and 48% BHP shareholders

Cash Adjustment
Effective transaction date 1 July 2021

Woodside entitled to ~$1,600 million for net cash flow from the BHP Petroleum business from 1 July 20213

BHP entitled to $830 million for dividends paid by Woodside since 1 July 2021

Cash Flow
Supports funding of Scarborough, Sangomar, Mad Dog 2, Shenzi North and other growth projects

Will be a top ten global independent producer.

Oddly, will be pursuing secondary listings on the NYSE and LSE when other Aussie companies, like BHP and WBC, are trimming that fat.

Of course all is moot without shareholder approval.

 

[Value Collector]

From the WPL 21 page PDF ASX announcement.




Will be a top ten global independent producer.

Oddly, will be pursuing secondary listings on the NYSE and LSE when other Aussie companies, like BHP and WBC, are trimming that fat.

Of course all is moot without shareholder approval.

BHP is maintaining its listing in London, NYSE and South Africa, they have just ended their dual listing structure where they were listed as two separate company entities.

 

[Craton]

BHP is maintaining its listing in London, NYSE and South Africa, they have just ended their dual listing structure where they were listed as two separate company entities.

Cheers @Value Collector. Thanks for pointing that out and clarifying my error.

 

[divs4ever]

BHP and WPL have come out of the bushes with announcements.

Some of them are over 200 pages long.

Too much reading for this little cut n thrust.

From the AFR.



Has anyone got any ideas on whether WPL taking over BHP's petroleum assets is good for WPL?

gg

i am thinking any silver lining will be in the BHP staff acquired in the deal ( there will be SOME quality staff , hopefully )

on the downside you have sudden extra complexity , and probably extra geopolitical risks

now i have seen the rough details ( guessing the bulk of shareholders will approve ) this is a lot of noise and paperwork to cover the extra risks

( BHP looks like just another shrinking company now without a poison pill protection , and WPL has will become much larger without the track record to instill confidence )

the amusing side ( and MAYBE even profitable one ) will be watching those fund managers with the virtue-signalling mandates , negotiate the paradigm shift , and some index funds will have to adjust to a much bigger WPL as well ( at least by alleged asset value )

but i bet the brokers and advisors have made a motza out of this

i will be watching to see in BHP finally gets the potash production into gear , or is that another dud like the shale oil

 

[divs4ever]

From the WPL 21 page PDF ASX announcement.




Will be a top ten global independent producer.

Oddly, will be pursuing secondary listings on the NYSE and LSE when other Aussie companies, like BHP and WBC, are trimming that fat.

Of course all is moot without shareholder approval.

oddly ??

not a probable red flag ??

the multiple listing SUGGESTS it is thinking of raising extra capital via these markets , now sure WPL might be doing this for the convenience of the new share-holders

but i have held WPL since 2011 ( first parcel in June 2011 @ $40 , second parcel in August 2011 @ $37.50 ) ( have average down in recent years ) so you can see why WPL has to ACTUALLY put the runs on the board to impress me

 

[Craton]

oddly ??

not a probable red flag ??

the multiple listing SUGGESTS it is thinking of raising extra capital via these markets , now sure WPL might be doing this for the convenience of the new share-holders

but i have held WPL since 2011 ( first parcel in June 2011 @ $40 , second parcel in August 2011 @ $37.50 ) ( have average down in recent years ) so you can see why WPL has to ACTUALLY put the runs on the board to impress me

Were those buys around the time Shell was selling down?

I suspect the WPL SP was artificially inflated to accommodate the sell down, but that's just the cynic in me talking. I realize that there's other factors impacting but the SP hasn't really recovered since.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

oddly ??

not a probable red flag ??

the multiple listing SUGGESTS it is thinking of raising extra capital via these markets , now sure WPL might be doing this for the convenience of the new share-holders

but i have held WPL since 2011 ( first parcel in June 2011 @ $40 , second parcel in August 2011 @ $37.50 ) ( have average down in recent years ) so you can see why WPL has to ACTUALLY put the runs on the board to impress me

I believe it will be quite easy for Australian companies to raise capital, particularly WPL and other resource companies as the $AUD will be an increasing element in Foreign Reserves of Overseas Central Banks.

How much easier than for funds to have assets in $AUD to convert and re-convert through a safe market

The listings make sense.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

I believe it will be quite easy for Australian companies to raise capital, particularly WPL and other resource companies as the $AUD will be an increasing element in Foreign Reserves of Overseas Central Banks.

How much easier than for funds to have assets in $AUD to convert and re-convert through a safe market

The listings make sense.

gg

there is a narrative to reduce/stop investment capital in fossil fuel projects ( especially in the US ) , now apart from that , we are coming into a period where cashed up investors ( that aren't pension-funds ) are going to demand higher returns , and ALSO WPL be will be operating in locales they haven't previously explored ( business-wise ) , so i am guessing there will be costs/expenses they won't have foreseen ( especially with broke governments trying to raise revenue )

now yes i agree where possible you should always borrow in YOUR native currency ( FX changes can be a killer ) but Australia isn't an unlimited piggy-bank and WPL will suddenly almost double in size , WPL might easily need to borrow more than what is available in Australia