WBC - Westpac Banking Corporation

[Real1ty]

Westpac was absolutely smashed today and very harshly in comparison to other banking stocks.

95% acceptance rate for the merger but i can't see how this could have had any negative effect on the SP as it was always going to go through.

I've been caught out a bit on this one and am a little concerned.

 

[coolacoola]

I believe several factors are at play. When Westpac merge with St George they will be giving out shares, thus more supply of shares, likely to drive the SP down. Remember 1.31 for every St George share. Also possible exposures to other companies might be a factor. Also capital raising to a lesser extent

Would be interesting to here from anyone else following whats been going on

 

[shccbell]

The dilution of shares can't be an issue as the underlying assets exceed what is being paid for them. The exposure surely was factored in weeks ago and reserves are in line with Westpac anyway, I assume they did due diligence. I've been caught out as well having bought a lot at 19.10 but think this is simply an over reaction like the rest of the market.

The market simply isn't trading on technical or fundamental analysis should have been out months ago but to late. My bet is we will see a major rally of banks in the next 3 months as the fear slowly subsides and people realise the banks are trading below fair market.

 

[Sean K]

All the banks are on a pe of 9 ish at the moment, so if earning stay stable they look undervalued on a long term perspective with ave pe of 14 ish (to be corrected). They are either oversold, or the market is correct that their future earnings are going to come off about 40%.

I bought this a few weeks ago as a long term hold for the grandkids, but bailed as the bad news just got badder .... How much more to come? All factored in, or not, that is the question I'm asking myself across a lot of companies that one day will regain old highs, but how much lower can they go and how long till recovery ...

 

[Real1ty]

I believe several factors are at play. When Westpac merge with St George they will be giving out shares, thus more supply of shares, likely to drive the SP down. Remember 1.31 for every St George share. Also possible exposures to other companies might be a factor. Also capital raising to a lesser extent

Would be interesting to here from anyone else following whats been going on

But the dilution has been known about for months.

The merger once given the go ahead by the Govt was always going to go through easily and the market knew this, so why on the day that it is made official and gets through with a resounding vote of confidence with a 95% acceptance rate is it smashed by about 12%?

I could understand it if it limped over the line with 75-80% but at 95% and with it always going to get through it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Probably just an anomaly and i almost averaged down yesterday at a touch over $17.00 but decided to tread carefully as my "Something is smelly here" radar was on high alert.

Cap raising or at least rumour of one possibly?

 

[agro]

i got a target of $10 on WBC - is this realistic?

either WBC or ANZ - one of the two

also, they likely to keep their dividends next year

 

[Sean K]

i got a target of $10 on WBC - is this realistic?

either WBC or ANZ - one of the two

also, they likely to keep their dividends next year

It could go further down as with the rest of the sector, but by how much is a pure pluck withought any analysis.

You do probably need to decide which stock your talking about too, their share structure is different, so $10 for ANZ may not be as lower in MC value as $10 for WBC ... at a pluck.

I don't think the banks will maintain their dividends but by how much is another pluck. They say they are not going to cut, but I think they'll have their pants on fire shortly ...

I see $14-15 as a decent support zone for WBC, but it's been defying gravity like all the rest. 50% off highs is probably a decent phychological support level too.

But heck, the world's on fire. All the banks could go rupt too ...

 

[Miner]

It could go further down as with the rest of the sector, but by how much is a pure pluck withought any analysis.

You do probably need to decide which stock your talking about too, their share structure is different, so $10 for ANZ may not be as lower in MC value as $10 for WBC ... at a pluck.

xxxxx

I see $14-15 as a decent support zone for WBC, but it's been defying gravity like all the rest. 50% off highs is probably a decent phychological support level too.

B ...

Kennas

Thanks

What do you think the decent support zone for ANZ will be ?

It has less robustness than WBC and probably Westpac is the best share in today's bank fraternity with debt and hedging losses.

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

Kennas

Thanks

What do you think the decent support zone for ANZ will be ?

It has less robustness than WBC and probably Westpac is the best share in today's bank fraternity with debt and hedging losses.

Cheers

I thought $16 was going to be....

The 98-99 highs at $12 look to have held.

For now...

eeeek

 

[GundamZeta]

WBC going to offer SPP @ $16.. is it a good price to add more or it still value too high in this recession environment?

 

[sardines]

I'd wait for the folks to dump their stock below $16. No idea how low this can go, but wait and see. Hard to see a big sp rebound any time soon. So far Aussie stocks haven't taken much of a US led rally, and I think another bout of selling would come by end Jan 09 so I'm sticking to mostly cash atm.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I thought $16 was going to be....

The 98-99 highs at $12 look to have held.

For now...

eeeek

WBC going to offer SPP @ $16.. is it a good price to add more or it still value too high in this recession environment?

It is now time for the gumnut superfund to make a decision, partake in the spp or wait for WBC to tank down to $12 and just buy some more.

A useful article on the conundrum.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/westpac-dilemma-for-shareholders-20090128-7rih.html

gg

 

[YELNATS]

It is now time for the gumnut superfund to make a decision, partake in the spp or wait for WBC to tank down to $12 and just buy some more.

A useful article on the conundrum.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/westpac-dilemma-for-shareholders-20090128-7rih.html

gg

As I recall the spp offer expires on 30/01, so tomoorow may the last chance to send your subscription by internet Bpay payment.

I have been watching the share price closely while on holiday in Singapore/Tokyo for most of the month and although I was leaning towards taking up the offer, $16 doesn't seem such a good deal now. I'd rather buy on-market at $14.50 or below.

I'm holding all of the top 6 or 7 banks and the only attractive capital raising which I took up recently was BEN's at $10.

 

[roofa]

As I recall the spp offer expires on 30/01, so tomoorow may the last chance to send your subscription by internet Bpay payment.

I have been watching the share price closely while on holiday in Singapore/Tokyo for most of the month and although I was leaning towards taking up the offer, $16 doesn't seem such a good deal now. I'd rather buy on-market at $14.50 or below.

I'm holding all of the top 6 or 7 banks and the only attractive capital raising which I took up recently was BEN's at $10.

I don't think it wll be $16, from memory it is to be average of last five days before close of offer.

 

[Bill M]

As I recall the spp offer expires on 30/01, so tomoorow may the last chance to send your subscription by internet Bpay payment.

I have been watching the share price closely while on holiday in Singapore/Tokyo for most of the month and although I was leaning towards taking up the offer, $16 doesn't seem such a good deal now. I'd rather buy on-market at $14.50 or below.

I'm holding all of the top 6 or 7 banks and the only attractive capital raising which I took up recently was BEN's at $10.

It is averaged out over the last 5 trading days to Jan 30. I bought my load today, it will still be cheaper through the SPP in any case. That of course is if there is no major catastrophes next week.

 

[YELNATS]

It is averaged out over the last 5 trading days to Jan 30. I bought my load today, it will still be cheaper through the SPP in any case. That of course is if there is no major catastrophes next week.

Sorry, you're correct, looks like the average may be say $15,20 to $15.40, just my prediction based on last 3 days plus today so far, and tomorrow to come.

Still mulling over whether to take it up, not much time left. Not as good as BOQ's offer of a 7.5% discount to their average price, although it's a bit hard to compare BOQ with WBC I know.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sorry, you're correct, looks like the average may be say $15,20 to $15.40, just my prediction based on last 3 days plus today so far, and tomorrow to come.

Still mulling over whether to take it up, not much time left. Not as good as BOQ's offer of a 7.5% discount to their average price, although it's a bit hard to compare BOQ with WBC I know.

I decided to spare gumnuts superfund any more pain at present. I can see them falling to $12 on a technical basis, see my chart above. I have not taken up the spp. The instos must be quaking I hear you say. !!!

gg

 

[YELNATS]

Today's ann re WBC's capital raising:
Quote

Australia's biggest bank by market value, Westpac Banking Corporation, has received applications for about $422 million worth of new shares from retail investors.

Successful applicants will receive shares at $15.26 each, which was the volume weighted average market price for the five trading days up to and including January 30, the Sydney-based bank said in a statement on Tuesday.

Unquote

Trading today as high as $16.63, so not too bad for those, like myself who (in a limited way), took up the offer.

 

[Sean K]

Potential breakout through 17 on WBC perhaps. Has that basing over the past 4 months been the bottom? Or a major bottom, whatever that means. Few stocks looking like this. Hmmmm.

 

[nomore4s]

Kennas alot of stocks have put in solid basing patterns atm and a few are now breaking out, as per my blog I'm now totally long (probably stupid) as I cannot find a decent short set up and am only getting buy signals. I think we are getting close to some kind of bottom but we might see 1 more strong leg down then could go sideways for a few years.

WBC & CBA are my 2 favoured banks based on stronger relative strength and the patterns that are forming, will be looking to add some WBC to my income portfolio in the near future but only a 1/2 parcel at the most for now.