WBC - Westpac Banking Corporation

[ozambersand]

All the banks are taking a hammering, probably because of the Greenspan comments.

Westpac also just passed its "record date" post dividend (23rd May). A lot of people think they have to own the share till this date to ensure they get the dividend and there is traditionally a big sell off immediately after. (They went ex-dividend on 17th May)

Note that NAB has also gone down a lot and it still hasn't reached its ex-dividend day, so in some ways its downward share price momentum is more unusual than Westpac's as you would be expecteing it to hold firm or go up (like CSR and LNN are doing who have similar ex-dividend dates).

I just hope that WBC goes up again after I have picked the bottom and bought in for some more!

But who knows when that will be..........

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I am seeing some weakness after the recent purge. If it can't get back up what is stopping it? If it is out of favour why?

I see resistance of sorts and considering a short sale. I am just waiting for confirmation.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

In response to a PM.

My signal was a significant down day which happened. I expect further down ward movement before any significant upward movement appears.

Discussion only.
Cheers

 

[Moneybags]

Snake,

I see where you are coming from with closing prices being lower than open for last 6 days........then a significant down day. I suspect you are right with more downward movement to follow after the Dow.

Cheers
MB

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

and today tells the story of where I was hoping to get my $$$$ from, if my provider had let me go short.

 

[rico01]

and today tells the story of where I was hoping to get my $$$$ from, if my provider had let me go short.

I've never got into CFD's cos of so many unknowns,but with options yesterday you could have paid 45c/$450 per contract of 1000 shares for a july $26 put which gives you 49 days to expiry. If you get it wrong thats all you risk unlike Cfd's. I usually trade in lots of 10 which gives you leverage to $260,000 of stock in WBC. How does that compare to CFD's?

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I've never got into CFD's cos of so many unknowns,but with options yesterday you could have paid 45c/$450 per contract of 1000 shares for a july $26 put which gives you 49 days to expiry. If you get it wrong thats all you risk unlike Cfd's. I usually trade in lots of 10 which gives you leverage to $260,000 of stock in WBC. How does that compare to CFD's? :

Yes I may need to take the options route I think.

I am beginning to think CFD's may be like bucket shops of the twenties.

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

Yes I may need to tak ethe options route I think.

I am begining to think CFD's may be like bucket shops of the twenties.

Correct me if I'm wrong Snake ....but like every toy for the investor, the onus is on you to deliver a profit and the stakes are dreamy...you can loose much more ..... Perhaps I'm conservative old school, but greedy I'm not, just cautious.....

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Correct me if I'm wrong Snake ....but like every toy for the investor, the onus is on you to deliver a profit and the stakes are dreamy...you can loose much more ..... Perhaps I'm conservative old school, but greedy I'm not, just cautious.....

...and your point is?

Conservative old school is?

We all have the tools that we need - toys are for children.

 

[rico01]

Yes I may need to take the options route I think.

I am beginning to think CFD's may be like bucket shops of the twenties.

Well snake after looking hard at WBC yesterday I actually did buy some put options, but june $26's at 41.5c, risky I know, but this morning it's lookin good for a bit of a correction, so i might owe u a beer or two, also I picked up those 100,000 YML u dropped at 26c so thanks 4 those too.
Cheers:bier:

 

[GreatPig]

Westpac showing some bullish RSI divergence as it bounces near the trend line and comes out of oversold territory.

The current uptrend has been pretty solid and steady since the start of my data back in 1997, with the only hiccup being in late 2002. So short of a major change in trend, I think now is looking as good a time as any. I picked some up for my investment portfolio last month.

Cheers,
GP

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Westpac showing some bullish RSI divergence as it bounces near the trend line and comes out of oversold territory.

The current uptrend has been pretty solid and steady since the start of my data back in 1997, with the only hiccup being in late 2002. So short of a major change in trend, I think now is looking as good a time as any. I picked some up for my investment portfolio last month.

Cheers,
GP

Hi GP,

I picked up some today just a small lot to let run for a while. I like the fact it has taken some time to start coming back up. Brokers are positive on it and the PE is ok.

 

[nomore4s]

Was looking over the charts of the banks and noticed that Westpac has held up quite well lately, especially compared to the other major banks.

Anyone got any ideas on why?

 

[ozambersand]

Brokers have been tipping it as the best bank of the Big Four. That might explain it, but I doubt that is enough.

It has also consistently had more "buys" than "sells" in their market depth. I find that strange particularly as in the last fews days everyone else has had almost 4:1 sells to buys.

Something is going on.

 

[voigtstr]

I'm considering buying a $2k parcel of shares in WBC next payday (15/09)
Is it just a matter of watching intraday prices and picking a dip?

 

[Julia]

I'm considering buying a $2k parcel of shares in WBC next payday (15/09)
Is it just a matter of watching intraday prices and picking a dip?

It's a pity your payday doesn't fall tomorrow, given there is likely to be a large fall here following the 250pt drop in the US on Friday night.
There will be other similar opportunities. Good luck.

 

[Arturius]

WBC - Westpac

I've been keeping an eye on this stock for a little while, after the strong up move in late October, it looks like its retracting to a better value zone. Its been by far the biggest dog of the major banks in my opinion, which is a good thing, because reversion to mean trades with strong fundamental stocks is a solid way to trade.

Here's what I wrote about in my blog:

Westpac (WBC) has been getting creamed lately. It seemed to produce only sideways movement over the August financial sector decline, but I think thats because its gains have been more modest in previous years then the other big 4. I feel very good about its outlook. Looking to buy RAMS Home Loan Group (RHG), a company which has seen most of its value sliced this year, gives it a good opportunity to buy itself a broader customer base and further sell its innovative banking products. WBC hasn’t been getting the love of the other big Australian banks have been seeing this year, and for that reason I think its due for a catch up. The RHG buy out spooked investors into an early November sell off, but its starting to make its way back. I’d like to hold this one for the next 6 months and see how it plays out. If it dips below $26, I’d probably sell, the stocks getting way to weak. Come on, just look at the graph. Doesn’t this scream to you under appreciated? And once again, like almost all of my buys, insider trading has been very strong. This one is ready to shoot towards $38+. Go long at $27.60.

Any thoughts on the RAMS acquisition? Technically it looks like a strong place to buy, fundamentally I could see the RAMS buy out go either way.

 

[TheRage]

Just thought I would comment on some of your points. Don't take this as an attack but I wish to clarify on some of your points of discussion.

1) In relation to the comment it's been the biggest dog of the four banks I am wondering what you are using to support that argument. From my research Nab wins that title hands down. 10yr Total shareholder returns for the big four are as follows. NAB 12.4%, CBA 18.8%, ANZ 16.9% and WBC 17.0%. Seems to me WBC stacks up quite nicely.


2) With respect to the comment Westpac hasn't been given the love of the other banks this year, well again I must disagree. Total 1 year shareholder returns WBC 18.7%, NAB 4.3%, CBA 28.9%, ANZ 1.9%. Again WBC comes out second best.

3) The comment that the RHG buyout spooked investors seems the unlikely culprit rather I suspect the fact that the market droped 7% before the election might have a little more to do with it.

4) The comment Insider trading has been very strong perhaps should be worded more carefully. I assume your refer to management purchasing the stock on market. I have not seen great evidence of this. By the way one could mistrue your wording to suggest that you were infact insider trading.

5) The comment this one is ready to shoot to $38+ is unsubstantiated. I realise you are a graph trader but perhaps some analysis on this might be useful. From a fundamental perspective if earnings growth is around 12% (historically close to this) then it is likely this will be the annual growth. From WBC's average 5 yr PE of around 13 Westpac is fairly valued at the moment. However in two years time using a conservative annual eps return of 12% and providing PE ratio is preserved at 13 the value of westpac should be around $31. Of course overvaluations always occur.

For the record I believe Westpac is probably the best bank. However all banks have a payout ratio of around 70% of earnings as dividends and why banks will never grow more rapidly due to only 30% of earnings being returned to retained earnings and therefore used to create more earnings.

I own Westpac. DYOR

 

[2020hindsight]

just for the record
here's WBC for the last 2 years (High Low Close) + averages
Also WBC vs XAO for last 12 months (candlestix) + ditto (percent indicates relative preformance campared to datum of XAO)

PS I plan to do this to a few stocks - please feel free to either
a) help out and divvy the job up between a few of us
b) suggest amendments to graphs
c) request some stocks you'd like me to post (maybe PM me)
d) tell me it's not necessary lol (or too wasteful of memory maybe?)

 

[treefrog]

westpac woes

westpac hasn't seen $20 since aug 05 but looks like revisiting soon.

strong 5yr trendline break and now retracing almost 50% of 5years of gains in last 4months