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War threat in Ukraine

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noirua said:
Explosions and fires ripped through an ammunition depot in Russia-annexed Crimea on Tuesday in the second suspected Ukrainian attack on the peninsula in just over a week, forcing the evacuation of more than 3,000 people.
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I find the site https://liveuamap.com/ to be more comprehensive, based on Telegram + Twitter to a large extent, as well as other sources. This of course has the bias of the posters, but is more immediate
This morning, for example, artillery hits continue along the front line (from Russian forces into Ukrainian defences and cities/ towns). Missiles are being fired into Ukrainian territory. Air raid sirens are active in most oblasts.

From what is probably HIMARS activity, several ammunition dumps have been hit deep in Russian occupied Ukraine (the Donbas/ Crimea), plus airbases. As well, there are hits on Russian territory (Usually sabotage or drones).

Most alarming is the activity around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant ZNPP, on the occupied side of the Dniepr,
 
Talking with a chap who has recently returned from a Rhine River cruise (very low on my bucket list)

- the tourist boats at about 60% capacity, lots of staff (every language you'd want)
- river levels dropping , then and now
- barge traffic going upstream was non-stop.... coal, gas and oil. All the talk was of getting stockpiles in for winter

And now the river is blocked in part, which doesn't auger well for the coming months.
 
The problem reported now is President Putin will declare war putting forward that they are now fighting western nations in Ukraine. So he can then call up 100s of thousands more troops and move wartime troops, weapons, and tanks into Ukraine. A more ugly phase of the war looks set to begin as Putin can not lose and the west cannot allow him to win. China wants to blockade Taiwan so no one will stand down.
 
noirua said:
The problem reported now is President Putin will declare war putting forward that they are now fighting western nations in Ukraine.
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Will?
or Russians show some spine and remove him? Or the West show some spine and indict him for war crimes?
noirua said:
So he can then call up 100s of thousands more troops and move wartime troops, weapons, and tanks into Ukraine.
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I think he has already done this.
noirua said:
A more ugly phase of the war looks set to begin as Putin can not lose and the west cannot allow him to win.
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possibly
 
noirua said:
The problem reported now is President Putin will declare war putting forward that they are now fighting western nations in Ukraine. So he can then call up 100s of thousands more troops and move wartime troops, weapons, and tanks into Ukraine. A more ugly phase of the war looks set to begin as Putin can not lose and the west cannot allow him to win. China wants to blockade Taiwan so no one will stand down.
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To quote Winston Churchill, who for younger members was PM of the UK during WW II ,

Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
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It is difficult to second guess Russia's intentions. It is am empire with something like 11 time zones. It is democratic and constitutional in name only. It has always had Czars who ruled with Cossacks to keep order, Aristocrats were kept close and a mercantile class was available to make money. Beneath at the bottom are a large mob of millions, uneducated, slavish, alcoholic peasants. It has always been thus.

The modern equivalent is Putin ( Czar ), FSB and Generals ( Cossacks ) Puppet Politicians, Oligarchs and Propagandists ( mercantile class ) and citizens/babushkas ( a large mob of uneducated, slavish, alcoholic peasants).

Power rarely moves lower than FSB and Generals, even in changes of ideology such as in 1917.

So imo trying to predict what will happen in Russia is more difficult than trying to predict the price of gold.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
To quote Winston Churchill, who for younger members was PM of the UK during WW II ,
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Hmmm maybe he didn't want to see what his heart probably knew: an alliance was needed to get a job done, but a Russia under Stalin and his ilk was always going to end up an enemy of the West. Like against Japan, a small tactical nuke or two on the USSR, before they could respond in kind, MIGHT have been for the greater good. Ah, the benefit of hindsight!

Of course it was never completely that easy, as although the USSR's first successful nuke test was 29 August 1949 they were stealing info from the US program constantly, and could have maybe cobbled together something functional in short order if push came to shove.
 
For those who are not better than I at using the internets and televisions, just a heads up for accessing news on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

It is just coming up to 37 minutes after sunrise in Kyiv. Remembering that further East in Ukraine it has been daylight for over an hour

The first bulletins via twitter.com usually get posted in about 90 minutes, although Kyiv is still in information blackout for strategic, tactical and operational reasons.

rt.com which is a Russian propaganda outfit can be accessed if you turn your vpnskies to Israel as they still allow rt to broadcast there. Quite hilarious misinformation. My grandchildren tell me Bluey is more fun.

Telegram has many useful posters but again with the ongoing information blackout it is limited on the
Ukraine side, although it is interesting from the Russian side as more panic settles in. Find them yeselves as my Cyrillic is ruskty.

Slava Ukraine.

gg
 
Izium has been de-occupied. If we are lucky, RUF has fled Lymnan. Pushilin has crossed the border to Rus. The Vovchansk administration in NE Kharkhiv has decamped to Belgorod. Large numbers of pro-Russians are thinking collaboration wasn't such a good idea and moving out of Ukraine lands.

It's a dynamic situation. The Kherson front is tricky; ultimately the Russians still want the warm water Black Sea ports and the krasnozem soils of the steppes. And a hard land to make frontal attacks, unless the adversaries panic and flee. Plus the nuclear plant ! A ticking time bomb. I believe it's called blackmail.
 
cointelegraph.com

Bank of Russia agrees to legalize crypto for cross-border payments: Report

The Russian central bank and finance ministry have reportedly reached an agreement to legalize crypto for cross-border payments in the near future.
cointelegraph.com cointelegraph.com
The idea of crypto payments for national trades in Russia surfaced in late 2021. Then, Russian President Vladimir Putin said it was “still premature” to use crypto for trades of energy resources like oil and gas.

The situation has apparently changed amid Western economic sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In May, the Minister of Industry and Trade declared that Russia would legalize crypto payments “sooner or later.” Bank of Russia governor Elvira Nabiullina also later suggested that crypto can be used for cross-border payments, but only if crypto doesn’t get into Russia’s domestic financial system.
 

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