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War threat in Ukraine

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Vladimir Putin is uncomfortable with potentially having NATO troops based 5-600 km from Moscow in Eastern Ukraine.

He will naturally have more skin in this game than Joe Biden and the European leaders.

Already he has commanded world attention and had Western leaders flying to Moscow.

The pressure will not let up from the Russian side and a successful invasion of Ukraine is always on the cards.

gg
 
Interesting piece in the Quadrant yesterday:

"Russia’s Ultimatum and the Future of a Self-Inducing Conflict"
15th February 2022 ; By: Anton Bendarzsevszkij
Quadrant Online: https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed...m-and-the-future-of-a-self-inducing-conflict/

"...Military conflict is not in Moscow’s interests - a war with Ukraine would certainly cause enormous casualties on
both sides and further damage the already stagnant Russian economy, not to mention bringing tougher Western sanctions than ever before...
...So, if there is no compromise between the West and Russia, the most likely scenario would be another escalation - some kind of
Russian response due to the lack of Western guarantees...

...In short, no war, but no peace either."

So get talking diplomats.
 
Logique2 said:
Interesting piece in the Quadrant yesterday:

"Russia’s Ultimatum and the Future of a Self-Inducing Conflict"
15th February 2022 ; By: Anton Bendarzsevszkij
Quadrant Online: https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed...m-and-the-future-of-a-self-inducing-conflict/

"...Military conflict is not in Moscow’s interests - a war with Ukraine would certainly cause enormous casualties on
both sides and further damage the already stagnant Russian economy, not to mention bringing tougher Western sanctions than ever before...
...So, if there is no compromise between the West and Russia, the most likely scenario would be another escalation - some kind of
Russian response due to the lack of Western guarantees...

...In short, no war, but no peace either."

So get talking diplomats.
Click to expand...
I haven't read Quadrant for a while, they usually have good commentary.

Put simply Russia is not going to agree to the status quo.

Ukraine, sitting as it is like a dog's ball under Russia, is a state I would not tolerate being a member of NATO if I were Putin.

It is similar to the Cuba crisis where Russia wanted warheads close to the US mainland. Kennedy objected and for the American Empire his call was correct.

Putin is now objecting for the Russian Empire and has precedent on his side.

Similarly from a military point of view, and remembering that war is just another form of diplomacy, ( Von Clausewitz ) , Ukraine needs in Russian eyes a rapprochement with Moscow or occupation and change of leadership.

cis7_big.jpg
gg
 
"Ukraine...a state I would not tolerate being a member of NATO if I were Putin....GG"

A point well made GG. And alluded to by no less an identity than Nigel Farage (that well known left-wing appeaser), on a domestic media outlet last night.

The US is arming Ukraine. What is Putin supposed to do? Make Biden, Johnson and Morrison look like strong leaders?

Oh well it could be worse, we could be in Canada and having PM Justin Tr. garnisheeing our bank accounts..
 
Russia ends its military drills in Crimea and Moscow has now said that its soldiers were returning to their garrison. The announcement comes a day after Russia had earlier announced a first troop pullback from Ukraine's borders.
 
Here’s a stupid idea ......

‘Ukraine is an independent country, we like them, you attack Ukraine and I bomb Moscow’

outside the box. ...... yes but why not. ?
 
Gunnerguy said:
Here’s a stupid idea ......

‘Ukraine is an independent country, we like them, you attack Ukraine and I bomb Moscow’

outside the box. ...... yes but why not. ?
Click to expand...
IMHO, I'd reckon that was always on the cards. Besides, nothing like a war to line the pockets eh?
Putin playing poker, again, seeing if we'd call his bluff. Looks like he's doing some more huffing and puffing...

Russia launches hypersonic missiles as part of nuclear drills
 
Even without any shot being fired, the utter barbarity of a huge nuked-up nation encircling it like Israelites marching around walls of Jericho has gotta be bad long term for Ukraine. There's already been ongoing brain drain from eastern Europe after Communism, but this threat level can hardly be conducive to those with good qualifications or prospects wanting to stick around, raise kids there and otherwise build up Ukraine. Russia, stop bullying your little brother!
 
a
Gunnerguy said:
Here’s a stupid idea ......

‘Ukraine is an independent country, we like them, you attack Ukraine and I bomb Moscow’

outside the box. ...... yes but why not. ?
Click to expand...
after the Gulf of Tonkin

or maybe those Iraqi WMDs

who do you believe

after all we are talking about Australia lives likely to be risked , when there is little to gain ( for most Australians , maybe if we went in to destroy the wheat crop we can sell more wheat to Europe ( at a better price )

much like saving those East Timor oil/gas resources for Woodside , is that the reputation Australia wants
 
StockyGuy said:
Even without any shot being fired, the utter barbarity of a huge nuked-up nation encircling it like Israelites marching around walls of Jericho has gotta be bad long term for Ukraine. There's already been ongoing brain drain from eastern Europe after Communism, but this threat level can hardly be conducive to those with good qualifications or prospects wanting to stick around, raise kids there and otherwise build up Ukraine. Russia, stop bullying your little brother!
Click to expand...
i am guessing Zekenski will be rolled by a civil war , and it won't be the pro-Russians doing it ( they control to little territory )
 
Gunnerguy said:
Here’s a stupid idea ......

‘Ukraine is an independent country, we like them, you attack Ukraine and I bomb Moscow’

outside the box. ...... yes but why not. ?
Click to expand...
That is one reason why Putin will annex Ukraine.

If I were he, I would not want NATO within 600k of Moscow as would occur if the present course of NATO expansion occurred up to the Russian border.

Nobody's going to bomb Moscow, nor Washington, nor Beijing. Unless it is the cousins from Saudi or Israel with a small "nutters" bomb.

gg
 
divs4ever said:
who do you believe

after all we are talking about Australia lives likely to be risked , when there is little to gain ( for most Australians , maybe if we went in to destroy the wheat crop we can sell more wheat to Europe ( at a better price )

much like saving those East Timor oil/gas resources for Woodside , is that the reputation Australia wants
Click to expand...

You reminded me of an old quote - "We, too, born to freedom, and believing in freedom, are willing to fight to maintain freedom. We, and all others who believe as deeply as we do, would rather die on our feet than live on our knees."

Interesting article in the Weekend Australian, I don't agree with all of it but there is sense in some of it.

"More than 50 million people died in World War II. Would it have been better to let the Nazis rule Europe and Imperial Japan run Asia to avoid those deaths?"

"Ukraine, Taiwan are connected: we can’t show weakness over either
The two conflicts are intimately connected. While they have their differences, they share striking similarities, not least that they will have a big effect on Australian security."

 
JohnDe said:
You reminded me of an old quote - "We, too, born to freedom, and believing in freedom, are willing to fight to maintain freedom. We, and all others who believe as deeply as we do, would rather die on our feet than live on our knees."

Interesting article in the Weekend Australian, I don't agree with all of it but there is sense in some of it.

"More than 50 million people died in World War II. Would it have been better to let the Nazis rule Europe and Imperial Japan run Asia to avoid those deaths?"

"Ukraine, Taiwan are connected: we can’t show weakness over either
The two conflicts are intimately connected. While they have their differences, they share striking similarities, not least that they will have a big effect on Australian security."

Click to expand...

Complex topic, apparently more died as a result of direct and indirect communism then ww2
 

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