War threat in Ukraine

[Logique2]

Russia is not going to war, they are playing the game that they are best at - chess. The current US leadership is falling for it, and so are many internet experts.

Not far wrong I'm guessing.
As I've said elsewhere, JFK was considered a hero for hunting the Soviets missiles out of Cuba.
Ukraine borders Russia, and wants to join NATO.

 

[divs4ever]

i am almost tempted to urge Russia to let the Ukraine join NATO and drag NATO into an even worse state of dysfunction .. oh and the EU will have to rush in and save the Ukraine economy to boot dragging the Fortress Europe into deeper despair

AND Russia can happily distance itself from the responsibility of the aging gas-line

 

[JohnDe]

Watch to the end

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

While not in any way endorsing Vladimir Vladimirovich's poor record on human rights many overlook the long term consequences of leaving Ukraine afloat between East and West.

Ukraine has in the past applied to join NATO.

Purely from first military principles it would be disastrous for Russia to have NATO literally "up its a*se" leaving no quick avenue for it to protect its only sea opening at Sevastopol to the Black Sea and on to the Mediterranean. The Motherland and its vassal/slave state Belarus would prefer to just head straight south. ( look at a map ).

It is only about 500k from the north eastern suburbs of Kyiv to the south western suburbs of Moscow.

I wonder if the cousins at Langley are aware of this proximity as they were all over the place with The Donald and now they have Ole Joe.

Anyways nobody likes war, particularly soldiers, so an outbreak of hostilities is unlikely particularly with an early northern spring tipped to make the going very muddy and sticky.

There will not be peace with Ukraine in the western orbit. Perhaps some diplomacy and then a return to sabre rattling next northern winter.

Meanwhile oil and gas and gold will be bullish.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

While not in any way endorsing Vladimir Vladimirovich's poor record on human rights many overlook the long term consequences of leaving Ukraine afloat between East and West.

Ukraine has in the past applied to join NATO.

Purely from first military principles it would be disastrous for Russia to have NATO literally "up its a*se" leaving no quick avenue for it to protect its only sea opening at Sevastopol to the Black Sea and on to the Mediterranean. The Motherland and its vassal/slave state Belarus would prefer to just head straight south. ( look at a map ).

It is only about 500k from the north eastern suburbs of Kyiv to the south western suburbs of Moscow.

I wonder if the cousins at Langley are aware of this proximity as they were all over the place with The Donald and now they have Ole Joe.

Anyways nobody likes war, particularly soldiers, so an outbreak of hostilities is unlikely particularly with an early northern spring tipped to make the going very muddy and sticky.

There will not be peace with Ukraine in the western orbit. Perhaps some diplomacy and then a return to sabre rattling next northern winter.

Meanwhile oil and gas and gold will be bullish.

gg

Just a map showing the German advance through Ukraine and in to Russia in 1942 to explain my post above further.



gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

There are some interesting military and ethnic maps and opinions on the "Where is gold heading thread" for anyone interested.

Gold and war and maps are intimately connected.

gg

 

[againsthegrain]

I am just another armchair bandit, but I think there will be no war, and on the slim chance there is, two losers will emerge.
I can only look back to Grozny and Kabul, both sides took heavy loses.

Ukraine has a similarity with Chechnia where both countries were part or Ussr and training under the old Soviets. Yeah for Ua more time has passed but they will employ and understand Russian tactics.

When you are defending your homeland it is a different game than invading in the name of a Dictator.

The slavic soul has it deep-rooted to defend the homeland due to no peace in its history.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just in relation to possibles.

Between Yalta and Kremenchuts'ke Reservoir the ground I am told is now still quite hard.

Rain has started in Kyiv and slush may result within the next few weeks. So if there is to be an advance from Russia it will be the Southern route.



gg

 

[InsvestoBoy]

very muddy and sticky.

Thank goodness for TikTok





I think if you click you can see a couple more muddy videos.

Great reminder of the difference between the blather posted by warmongers and the reality on the ground of every single war, ever.

Nobody knows what will happen but I do not think there will be a war. But if there is, this is the song for it.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thank goodness for TikTok





I think if you click you can see a couple more muddy videos.

Great reminder of the difference between the blather posted by warmongers and the reality on the ground of every single war, ever.

Nobody knows what will happen but I do not think there will be a war. But if there is, this is the song for it.

Got it in one.

Returned soldiers and servicemen/women are never warry.

Civilians caught up in it neither. It sells newspapers and Harvey Norman sh*ite furniture on TV.

gg

 

[sptrawler]

Anyways nobody likes war, particularly soldiers, so an outbreak of hostilities is unlikely particularly with an early northern spring tipped to make the going very muddy and sticky.


gg

I wonder if the politicians have thought about that problem GG, getting soldiers to fight? These days I think it would be a difficult task in Australia's case.
It was only a couple of weeks a go the cricket team got rid of the coach, because he had them on edge and was a disciplinarian. Imagine the backlash if you were asking them to be shot at, I don't think it would be an easy call in Australia's case.
Interesting times IMO.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I wonder if the politicians have thought about that problem GG, getting soldiers to fight? These days I think it would be a difficult task in Australia's case.
It was only a couple of weeks a go the cricket team got rid of the coach, because he had them on edge and was a disciplinarian. Imagine the backlash if you were asking them to be shot at, I don't think it would be an easy call in Australia's case.
Interesting times IMO.

Well living in Townsville I probably see more soldiers about than many on ASF.

Unlike in my day most are more muscled, more articulate, and better educated and trained than in my day from speaking to them. They are realistic about being deployed and I believe they would do a good rotation if ordered.

Most forces overseas prefer to be co-located with Aussies if that helps.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

Thank goodness for TikTok





I think if you click you can see a couple more muddy videos.

Great reminder of the difference between the blather posted by warmongers and the reality on the ground of every single war, ever.

Nobody knows what will happen but I do not think there will be a war. But if there is, this is the song for it.

so you haven't seen the Russian tanks fitted with screws ( or worm-drive ??) , sure they haven't got thousands of THEM , you can bet the Russians have other strategies for soft ground as well , after all they have lived and fought in such conditions for nearly 100 years ( using tanks )

HOWEVER i cannot see where the gain is for Russia by invading , even if there was trivial resistance , the place is a financial wreck and they already owe Russia billions in a disputed loan

 

[divs4ever]

BTW the Russians also have some BIG helicopters ( if they really need to get something heavy somewhere )

 

[Jeda]

so you haven't seen the Russian tanks fitted with screws ( or worm-drive ??) , sure they haven't got thousands of THEM , you can bet the Russians have other strategies for soft ground as well , after all they have lived and fought in such conditions for nearly 100 years ( using tanks )

HOWEVER i cannot see where the gain is for Russia by invading , even if there was trivial resistance , the place is a financial wreck and they already owe Russia billions in a disputed loan

russia's best kept secret no one has seen one since the 60's

 

[JohnDe]

 

[divs4ever]

russia's best kept secret no one has seen one since the 60's

View attachment 137537

they have newer models with a real tank built on top

not full of hi-tech mind you , but Russia veers to basic and functional

 

[Jeda]

yeah they've been in storage since 1969 waiting for more mud. look at the fun these guys had

Russians Get T-90 Tank Stuck in the Mud

During opening winter military exercises in Alabino (Moscow), a T-90 tank drives through a deep puddle of mud and gets firmly stuck. The only way to free it was to bring in another T-90 and pull it out.

www.military.com

 

[Dona Ferentes]

russia's best kept secret no one has seen one since the 60's

When a Soviet MiG-25 (or Foxbat) came into Western hands through the defection of the pilot, in 1976, the initial assumption was that they were technologically behind, because of vacuum tube rather than solid-state electronics. This was quickly altered when there was a realisation the avionics were robust and would continue to operate; the use of vacuum tubes made the aircraft's systems resistant to an electromagnetic pulse, for example, after a nuclear blast.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

so you haven't seen the Russian tanks fitted with screws ( or worm-drive ??) , sure they haven't got thousands of THEM , you can bet the Russians have other strategies for soft ground as well , after all they have lived and fought in such conditions for nearly 100 years ( using tanks )

Relax mate