War threat in Ukraine

[Stockbailx]

Air support will be considered an act of war. There is zero chance of that happening.

Its the negativity that bugs me! Ukraine already at war. It wouldn't be an act of war. More like a sign of solidarity for Ukraine. Putin can considerate a act of war, but he started it. So lets finish it!

 

[moXJO]

Its the negativity that bugs me! Ukraine already at war. It wouldn't be an act of war. More like a sign of solidarity for Ukraine. Putin can considerate a act of war, but he started it. So lets finish it!

It not a COD mission.
It would also increase casualties.
And no telling who else would get involved.

 

[Stockbailx]

What can still be done is passing over the migs from Poland and Bulgaria like it was planned but stalled. Its a very thin line there but russians are apparrently flying in some planes from belarus now

Russia got friends, supplying planes, Ukraine's got more friends but no real mates ( Cowards ) DAMN

It not a COD mission.
It would also increase casualties.
And no telling who else would get involved.

I find it hard to understand your digression, I must be devastated. Must be more we can do! Ukraine got the short end of the straw! DAMN
I'm not sure how that support going or if it will ever get to the Ukrainians in time. Its certainly not flying in. Interesting meeting on the 23/24th but even that seems to late! DAMN

 

[waterbottle]

Just how long will sanctions be palatable for the Western world when this is happening less than a month into the conflict?

 

[Telamelo]

Just how long will sanctions be palatable for the Western world when this is happening less than a month into the conflict?

Cost of bread alone up 40% already in Spain & Portugal... we in Australia just starting to get a taste of inflation with fuel prices soaring & grocery items rising significantly - Coffee tin up 25% already this past week, insurance up 25%, gas,water & electricity is next.. Meanwhile, our big4banks have cut interest rates in Aussie bank accounts next to zilch whilst increasing pain on mortgage holder's..

 

[againsthegrain]

Meanwhile, our big4banks have cut interest rates in Aussie bank accounts next to zilch whilst increasing pain on mortgage holder's..

There is no angry icon unfortunately

 

[moXJO]

Example of what happens if a thermobaric gets hit with anti-tank missile. Syrian video.

 

[Logique2]

Anyone advocating for escalating is a damn idiot. At the moment deaths are in the tens of thousands. Escalate and its damn well in the hundreds. Bloody fools without a clue.
This is a grind them on all fronts. Be it sanctions, trade, banking system, military assistance to Ukraine, etc. I'd rather see Putin taken out with an internal struggle then watch Europe and Russia in flames.

The worst thing you could do is kick off WW3 you pack of idiots. You have no bloody idea who else will get involved or what Russia is willing to do. And Russia isn't even the biggest threat in the room.
Utter madness.

On the energy stuff I'll simply observe that none of this is new, indeed it's far more well established than most seem to realise.

This issue, not climate change, is the reason the International Energy Agency was established in the first place with its associated agreements and so on.

It's also the actual reason why the then newly elected state government in Victoria, back in 1982, proposed an assortment of energy regulations in that state which had as their object a move away from oil and gas.

At the risk of lobbing an off topic rock - it's also a key focus in the planning documents circa 1977 which ultimately lead to the highly controversial at the time but never built hydro scheme involving the Franklin River in Tasmania.

Also the actual reason why France went all in on nuclear, dismissing economic cost as a comparatively unimportant consideration.

Same reason for the US' Energy Efficiency Act of 1979.

Same reason the New Zealand government established the New Zealand Synthetic Fuels Corporation which in a joint venture with Mobil Oil (now ExxonMobil) built and operated the world's only synthetic petrol production plant with production commencing in 1986 (since closed). The petrol produced was 97 RON for the record (without lead or other such additives) so it sure wasn't junk.

Same reason Shell, ARCO, Exxon and several others jointly blew USD 5.5 billion circa 1980 proving that oil shale could be developed but without actually building a permanent operation. That's $5.5 billion in actual 1980 $, equivalent to about USD 19 billion today adjusted for inflation. It was a joint effort by multiple companies at a single site.

And on I could go. There's a rather long list of these.....

Point being this wasn't just an issue that an academic or a few data geeks sitting in a back office somewhere knew about. 40 years ago - that's quite a while but it's well within living memory so it begs the question "how on earth was this forgotten?" How on earth has the West ended up in such a mess over something that was clearly understood by all sorts of people, from big corporations and major national governments down to relatively small countries and Australian state governments, less than 40 years ago?

Heck even National Geographic put out a special issue devoted solely to the subject and complete with lots of technical details and so on. So even the general public had access to the information at the time.

There's a broader lesson in there I think - I'm no guru on anything about wars but I strongly suspect those who do know about them are thinking much the same "how have we managed to fail to learn from relatively recent history that was so well understood not that long ago?"

Smurf
mate none more knowleable in here on energy policy, ..but we need you to spell it out for us..

Words in your mouth, but aren't the energy policies of the West delivering Putin his expected victory?
..He has coal-fired power electricity.. and no resistance to nuclear generation..

 

[Knobby22]

Someone pointed out to me that Putin is very sick and if you look at his recent photos of his face you can see the effects of cortosoids. They are used for many treatments.

Maybe this is his last hurrah?

 

[Smurf1976]

aren't the energy policies of the West delivering Putin his expected victory?

The big problem and the reason for historic concern ultimately comes down to the distribution of reserves.

Russia itself has 23% of world natural gas reserves, the most of any country.

The other former USSR countries have 8% between them.

Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan between them have 41% with Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia being dominant in that group.

African countries 8%, China 3.1%, Venezuela 2.7%.

USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, UK, Norway and all EU countries combined don't quite get to 10% with the US (6.2%), Australia (1.5%), Canada (1.0%) and Norway (0.7) dominating that group.

The basic thinking is that the distribution of natural gas is such that for the West, particularly the UK and EU, to be a major consumer was always going to involve buying it from countries that were at best problematic with unreliable supply and at worst would either use the money to launch a war or hold the West to ransom by threatening to cut supply off.

That's not something I came up with, it was a pretty widespread notion during the 1970's and 80's and along with very similar concerns about oil, and noting the existence of an actual cartel in the case of oil (OPEC) which was highly active at the time, gave rise to much concern.

So long as the West, and in particular Europe, continues to use so much of the stuff it's going to involve being reliant upon and sending large amounts of money to places that we don't get along with particularly well. It might not be a problem at any given time or with any given country but it's always going to be a looming threat so long as it continues.

I won't go as far as claiming that Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if nobody bought Russia's oil and gas, since it's impossible to prove either way, but I think it's fair to say that handing Russia over 1 billion USD* each and every day and being reliant on them to literally keep the lights on does put them in a much stronger position than they'd otherwise be.

*Very rough figure given how volatile prices have been recently. Reserve figures I've quoted based on current US Energy Information Administration data.

 

[waterbottle]

The West is caving

Renault resumes car production in Moscow as rivals cut ties with Russia

Carmaker’s move backed by French government as Nestlé also comes under pressure to withdraw business

www.theguardian.com

 

[basilio]

The war in Ukraine is creating havoc across a wide range of essential products. We know that wheat prices are going through the roof as their crops are unable to be exported.

However there are also a wide range of critical industrial products that are impacting on global manufacturing.

Carmaker BMW has also cut production at its factories and deleted touchscreens from some of its models because of the chip shortage. The car maker also warned of further supply chain disruptions due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and expected the chip crisis to drag on this year.

Ms Hunter said Ukraine is a major producer of neon which is a key component of microchips.

"Neon is an absolutely essential input into chip making [and] chip production. You can't substitute it for anything else," she said.

"We've obviously seen the fallout in terms of oil markets and what's happened to the oil price, and indeed to other commodity markets and commodity supplies as well.

"Russia, for example, is a major supplier of copper, but those supplies are now being disrupted in the global marketplace. It's generally a challenging time for manufacturers in all sectors. And car producers are no exception to that."

Ukraine is also a key source of wire harnesses that are used to power automotive electric systems.

"There are vehicle manufacturing capabilities in some of those markets. And as they close, that's just going to add to the the global disruption in production," Mr Voortman said.

"There are also some very critical minerals being made, particularly in the manufacture of catalytic converters, and a lot of that's based in the Ukraine. So expect this to only add to the problem."

'Luckily I'm not desperate to have a car tomorrow': Buyers face a 12-month wait for new cars

Delivery times for popular car models have blown out to more than a year, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbates supply chain issues, driving up the cost of new and used cars.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Craton]

As per @basilio post above...

From Silicon Republic on Neon and reads in part:

Ukraine is a significant supplier of neon and Ingas and Cryoin account for anywhere between 45pc and 54pc of the world’s total neon output, according to Reuters calculations.

Ingas, based in the heavily bombed city of Mariupol, typically exports neon to customers in countries such as Taiwan, Korea, China, Germany and the US, with about 75pc going to the chip industry. Now, the city is under siege with limited phone and internet access.

Cryoin, which is based in the city of Odessa in southern Ukraine, told Reuters that that it could weather at least three months with the manufacturing plant closed, after which it would face a sharp financial crunch. If equipment is damaged or access to raw materials is restricted, the company said it would make it difficult to restart operations.

From Automotive News Europe on Wire Harnesses and reads in part:

Automakers including Volkswagen, BMW and Porsche are struggling to obtain crucial wire harnesses as suppliers in western Ukraine have been shuttered by the Russian invasion of the country, forcing production stops at car factories in Germany.

Production of the part, needed for organizing miles of vehicle cables, has affected suppliers including Leoni, Fujijura and Nexans.

A wire harness is a vital set of parts which neatly bundle up to 5 km (3.1 miles) of cables in the average car. They are a crucial part of a vehicle's electrical system.

Leoni, which has two wire harness factories in western Ukraine, is scrambling to compensate for production losses. The Germany company has two Ukrainian plants in Stryi and Kolomyja.

Alongside energy and food, the Putin cagey mongrel strategies are becoming very clear and, in my mind, this "special military ops" against Ukraine was always an indirect declaration of war against the West. From the outset designed to hit and inflict the most human and economic pain and disruption on as many fronts as possible.

Any talk of Russia's weaknesses falls into the carefully planned subterfuge that is classic Putin. With years of planning and stockpiling, I'm just waiting for the surprise attack/s and killer punch.

The West's speed for greed and don't you dare rock that apple cart has been well and truly baited and trapped. The wake up call is perhaps too late...

 

[basilio]

Thanks Cration I noticed this comment at the end of one of the stories in the website

VW, BMW and Mercedes-Benz have been forced to reduce production at their German factories because supplies of wire harnesses produced in the Ukraine have been disrupted.

The disruption is spreading to other countries in eastern Europe because many of their Ukrainian workers are returning to their home country to fight the Russians, media reports said.

Suppliers in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are affected.

Ford's European output hit by Ukraine war

The automaker's plants in Germany and Spain are pausing or cutting output after Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted parts supplies.

europe.autonews.com

 

[Stockbailx]

The West's speed for greed and don't you dare rock that apple cart has been well and truly baited and trapped. The wake up call is perhaps too late...

Indeed, although I hate to say it's too late. Rather it's been going on to long, with out the no fly zone, constructed by NATO and the west. I feel there will be no resistance by anyone except the Russian's, and if Putin wants a war let's give him one. Put a end to his de-meaner of the old USSR.
I feel for the Ukrainian's, and don't approve of their way of life been terminated by someone else's greed for power and domination...
I look forward to Biden's meeting with NATO tomorrow or Thursday, and hope their not threatened by Putin and some thing constructive can come out of it, and that they will provide some logistical support and air support, besides what can be offered on the ground. If that assistance get there? Protect the mother land that is Ukraine for Ukrainian's and NOT for Russia's/Putin...

 

[Craton]

Cheers @basilio
A little more on the caginess of you know who.
Back in late 2019 Russia tested a total disconnect from the internet. Obviously a plan was already in place to curtail free speech and access to the broader global community.

@Stockybailz
I'm a never too late type and like you, feel for the Ukrainian's. I cannot even imagine what it must be like. Just thinking what it would be like if my main street or the block where I lived looked like the images I've seen. Geez, what absolute horror!

 

[wayneL]

Cheers @basilio
A little more on the caginess of you know who.
Back in late 2019 Russia tested a total disconnect from the internet. Obviously a plan was already in place to curtail free speech and access to the broader global community.

@Stockybailz
I'm a never too late type and like you, feel for the Ukrainian's. I cannot even imagine what it must be like. Just thinking what it would be like if my main street or the block where I lived looked like the images I've seen. Geez, what absolute horror!

We are pretty spoilt and insulated here in Australia. My own parents used to tell me the stories of being bombed by the Nazis during world war 2 in their hometown of Newcastle upon Tyne, because of the shipyards there... and there are dozens and dozens of more recent examples which we really haven't paid that much attention to.

The only difference is the narrative.

Shock and awe was etc was all good because it was us doing the shocking and aweing, even though under seemingly false pretences... and the situation in Yemen has been invisible to us, because I want media has ignored it.

This does not say anything to diminish the situation in the Ukraine, but one must wonder about the attention given to various conflicts and how our reactions to them are being largely guided by the media.

 

[Craton]

@wayneL
For obvious cultural reasons we relate more to the British and European "way of life" and hence, our foreign policies and media reflect that fact.
I'm fairly certain that most of us are equally appalled at what has/is occurring in other parts of the world.
Other hostilities and issues are certainly no less relevant to me.
E.g. the immense environment damage carried out daily to the great Amazon should see the same sort of sanctions imposed on Brazil.

 

[Smurf1976]

Alongside energy and food, the Putin cagey mongrel strategies are becoming very clear and, in my mind, this "special military ops" against Ukraine was always an indirect declaration of war against the West. From the outset designed to hit and inflict the most human and economic pain and disruption on as many fronts as possible.

Natural gas I've said much about so won't repeat it but for things like neon and wiring harnesses there's no excuse at all for the West to be relying on others.

Both could be done in Australia if we wanted to indeed I've personally made wiring harnesses for other uses in the past. Probably not as efficiently as a proper setup would do it, but just did it in the workshops a long time ago now. It ain't rocket science, it's the kind of thing someone can be trained to do very easily.

 

[Stockbailx]

President Biden in Europe, for summit with NATO and Meetings with the EU. After watching and hearing on the ABC's Breakfast programme, I found it quite lame their only strengthening the borders rather then entering Ukraine. Still early day's, more can be done, from NATO and the EU. One thing that play's with my convenience is that they trip over the scare mun-ga tactics of chemical warfare and Nuke's ( leave it out ).

NATO estimates up to 15,000 Russian soldiers killed so far in Ukraine

NATO estimates 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in four weeks of war in Ukraine and says it will likely ramp up military forces on its eastern flank.

www.abc.net.au