War threat in Ukraine

[Telamelo]

How cheap is this Russian oil that you talk about?

It's cheap as UK then sell some of it onto poorer European countries like Spain & Portugal... keeps the UK economy ticking over to fund the military aid to Ukraine

 

[JohnDe]

It's cheap as UK then sell some of it onto poorer European countries like Spain & Portugal... keeps the UK economy ticking over to fund the military aid to Ukraine

"It's cheap" thanks that is very informative. I can now conclude that you have no idea how much Russian crude to the UK is.

Keep us posted

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Nice to see yet another Russian oil supertanker dock in the UK seems like business as usual - so why can't we here in Australia also get cheap oil from Russia to ease fuel prices ? Oh that's right sanctions as we aren't allowed to trade with China or Russia as only the UK & the USA can lol

Oil supertanker from Russian port docks in Southampton

ExxonMobil says cargo came from Kazakhstan

www.independent.co.uk

check the Viva thread ... VEA
Petrol prices are determined by Malasian crude ex Singapore refinery.

 

[moXJO]

Shell Buys Russian Oil at Bargain Price

Shell PLC has snapped up a cargo of Russian crude at a bargain price, ending a self-imposed embargo on Russian oil by the international energy industry. Shell bought 100,000 metric tons of Russi

www.wsj.com

I've heard $20-$40 a barrel under market.

 

[basilio]

We live in an information age, assessment is being made by thousands of people receiving info from satellite images, photos, twitter, email, intercepted radio chatter and so on.

Western defence officials have estimated Russian casualties at between 2,000 and 6,000. Based on ratios in similar conflicts, that implies three to four times as many captured and wounded. At its midpoint, such an estimate is more, in three weeks, than the losses of US and UK servicemen combined during 20 years in Afghanistan.​

The Russians are very good at military parades. They spend weeks getting everything shiny. But it’s a facade​

‘A serious failure’: scale of Russia’s military blunders becomes clear

First phase of offensive held back by intelligence weaknesses and poor planning and logistics

www.ft.com

Thanks for the full copy of that analysis. Seems to be excellent, professional research. Pretty sad picture of Russian preparation.

It does remind me of many earlier examples of USSR war processes. In particular the desire by agencies to tell the Leader what they wanted to hear rather than the reality on the ground. Also the use of "lower value" troops to soak up firepower.

The fear that Putin will now resort to scorched earth tactics to "win" the war is both troubling but bizarre. A trashed Ukraine will be an economic drag on Russia for many years.

 

[basilio]

President Zelinsky talking to his nation, soldiers in the invading army and Russian Citizens. Powerful. Copy taken from The Guardian

Here is the first part of his speech. It’s a long address so I’ll post the rest in two more chunks.


Free people of the free country, the 19th day of our resistance has come to end. Another hard day that made us closer to the victory and peace for Ukraine. As before, the enemy is perplexed. They didn’t expect such resistance. They believed their propaganda that lied about us for decades.

They still can’t recover but have begun realizing that they won’t achieve anything by war. Their soldiers know it. Their officers understand it. They flee from the battlefield, leaving behind their vehicles and equipment. We take the trophies and use them for defence of Ukraine. Russian forces have de-facto become a supplier of equipment for our army. They couldn’t imagine it in a nightmare.

[In Russian] I want to tell Russian soldiers, those who have already entered our lands and those who are only being sent to fight against us. Russian conscripts, please, listen to me attentively. Russian officers, you have already understood everything. You won’t be able to take anything from Ukraine. You will take lives – you are many – but yours will be taken too.

What are you dying for? I know, you want to survive. We hear in your intercepted calls what you really think of this war, of this shame, and of your state. Your conversations with each other, your calls home to your families, we hear everything. We make conclusions. We know who you are. That’s why I offer you a choice: On behalf of the Ukrainian people, we give you a chance to live. If you surrender to our forces, we will treat you as humans have to be treated: with dignity. The way you have not been treated in your army. And the way your army doesn’t treat our people. Choose.

[In Ukrainian]: Our brave defenders continue causing the Russian forces devastating losses. Very soon, the number of downed Russian helicopters will reach 100. They have already lost 80 military places, hundreds of tanks, thousands of other military vehicles and equipment. In 19 days, the Russian army had more soldiers killed than in two bloody wars in Chechnya. What for?

[In Russian] I’m thankful to those Russians who don’t stop trying to deliver the truth, who are fighting against disinformation and tell real facts to their friends and families, and personally to that woman who went in the studio of Channel One with an anti-war poster. Those who aren’t afraid to protest. As long as your country isn’t completely closed from the rest of the world, turning into a huge North Korea, you have to fight, you don’t have to miss your chance.

[In Ukrainian] The EU has approved the fourth package of sanctions against Russia. I’m sure it’s not the last one. We are working with partners on new restrictions that will be imposed against Russia. Every person who is responsible for the war, who is responsible for destroying a democracy and repressions against people. Everyone will get a retaliation from the world. And it’s only the beginning. Accountability for war crimes is inevitable. Accountability for deliberately manufactured humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine is inevitable. The whole world is seeing what’s happening in Mariupol, Kharkiv, Sumy, Okhtyrka, Hostomel, Irpin. All our partners are informed about crimes of the occupants against civilians and local governments in Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.

Here’s the final part of Zelenskiy’s address, in which he updates Ukrainians on his diplomatic efforts and says talks continue on Tuesday:

On March 14, we managed to evacuate 3,806 Ukrainians from [encircled] cities and towns. Our convoy of trucks with 100 tons of much needed humanitarian aid for Mariupol is still held up in Berdyansk. For a third day. However, we will keep trying to deliver food, water, and medication to the people of Mariupol. Every aggressive action of the invaders only pushes the world for more sanctions. I spoke to Ursula von der Leyen, Andrzej Duda, Xavier Bettel. There’s 100% of mutual understanding. I spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Bennett as part of negotiations effort to finish this war as soon as possible with honest peace. Our delegation has also worked on it at the talks with the Russian side. Pretty well, as it was reported to me. But we will see. They will continue tomorrow.

Cabinet of ministers approved a support package for the economy and businesses so that people had work where it is safe. We are launching a fiscal reform. Instead of an added-value tax and income tax, we will introduce a 2% turnover tax and simplified accounting. For small businesses, individual entrepreneurs, we make the payment of the unified tax voluntary. If you can, pay. You can’t, no questions. Secondly, maximum deregulation of business. We cancel all state inspections for all businesses so that they keep working and everyplace where there is no fighting continued to live. We have only on condition: You have to ensure your business operates within the Ukrainian law. And it’s only the beginning of our fiscal reform.

[In the end he said he signed an order to award Ukrainian soldiers]

 

[Logique2]

I'm just in awe of the courage and tenacity of the people of Ukraine.

And what about the neighbouring nations, most especially Poland ..so kind and so generous to the fleeing Ukraine citizens.

 

[Logique2]

Financial collapses will be far more likely. As Smurf pointed out there will be serious losses in speculative trades across many commodities.

I struggle to see how many companies will hold value as the implications of shortages and war type economies come into play. Somewhere I remember reading that derivative investments are in their trillions at the moment. Don't want to think about the implications of these coming unwound.

We know that food and energy prices are rising sharply. The impact on some countries could be catastrophic. May well be a lot of international debt going under water. International instability could also rise. Remember the Arab Spring rebellion ? Rising food prices was a big part of that movement.

Also wonder how insurance companies are going to cope under the pressures of word wide climate change events and economic turmoil from war.

Arab Spring - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"..word (sic) wide climate change events and economic turmoil from war.."..Basilio

Klaus Schwab (WEF) couldn't have said it better.

 

[noirua]

Zelenskyy predicts victory in Ukraine, offers Russian soldiers 'a chance to survive'

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy predicted victory over Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces in Ukraine Tuesday and offered Russian troops a “chance to survive” by surrendering.

www.foxnews.com

 

[waterbottle]

Zelenskyy predicts victory in Ukraine, offers Russian soldiers 'a chance to survive'

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy predicted victory over Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces in Ukraine Tuesday and offered Russian troops a “chance to survive” by surrendering.

www.foxnews.com

Time will tell

 

[Value Collector]

Once the dust settles after this war, we should limit the price russia can sell its oil for to $40, and use the remaining margin to fund a reconstruction fund to rebuild Ukraine.

 

[Stockbailx]

Once the dust settles after this war, we should limit the price russia can sell its oil for to $40, and use the remaining margin to fund a reconstruction fund to rebuild Ukraine.

Not long now; Kyiv after been surrounded by Russia on all fronts, is starting to be attacked. Capture, kill the President, of Ukraine. Then as it is all ready; on for young and old.
Question is who rebuilds, and runs the country when the dust settles, solid Ukraine, with help from the West, witch is fragile from the cowards of Nato/US. ( Victory Unlikely unless the west fights for Ukraine ) Whimps! Or Putin's Russia. Where's all the so called charity going to go? What happens to any Ukrainians left over, scattered all over the place, living under Russia's Rule. Back to square one!

 

[noirua]

A canceled check in the amount of $7.2 million, for the purchase of Alaska, issued on August 1, 1868. (National Archives)

Russian lawmaker demands return of Alaska, California fort and reparations amid US-led sanctions

A Russian lawmaker made an outlandish demand over the weekend that the United States return Alaska and a historic settlement in California, in addition to paying reparations to Russia over crippling American-led sanctions that have put Moscow's economy in a tailspin.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Not long now; Kyiv after been surrounded by Russia on all fronts, is starting to be attacked. Capture, kill the President, of Ukraine. Then as it is all ready; on for young and old.

or, in the real world

Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces continue to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern operational directions. Ongoing Russian efforts to replace combat losses with both Russian replacements and non-Russian sources, including Syrian fighters and the Wagner Group, are unlikely to enable Russia to resume major offensive operations within the coming week.

and then , the summary for 15 March (time difference => 12 hours old)

With Russian forces likely unable to complete the encirclement of Kyiv or resume mobile offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine in the near future, the Russian capture of Mariupol will likely be the next key inflection in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian forces have successfully encircled Mariupol and are conducting daily assaults on the western and eastern outskirts of the city. Russian air, missile, and artillery strikes continue to target residential areas and civilian infrastructure to force the city to capitulate. Russian forces have encircled the city to a depth that will likely prevent the defenders from breaking out and prevent Ukrainian efforts to relieve the defenders. Russian forces will likely be able to capture Mariupol or force it to capitulate despite strong Ukrainian defenses......

each point is backed with attributable footnotes. (Ukrainian sourced, but I'm not noticing much free flow of information from the aggressors)

Institute for the Study of War

www.understandingwar.org

 

[JohnDe]

 

[IFocus]

Worth aread perhapes

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice - U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor's Office of the State Council.

uscnpm.org

 

[noirua]

 

[noirua]

 

[waterbottle]

A no fly zone is WW3.

The US is being asked to decide between the plight of Ukrainians (via a no fly zone) and the future of the world (via ww3). The latter is unreasonable and criminal when a diplomatic solution (stop pushing NATO)

 

[againsthegrain]

A no fly zone is WW3.

The US is being asked to decide between the plight of Ukrainians (via a no fly zone) and the future of the world (via ww3). The latter is unreasonable and criminal when a diplomatic solution (stop pushing NATO)

Tell it to those people, this is what is criminal