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War threat in Ukraine

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moXJO said:
Lecture from 6 years ago. On the whys and possible outcomes. Also the thinking behind it. He surprisingly got a lot of it right. Takes a very neutral stance overall. Some interesting points all the way through.

Lays out the basics of why this thing started.

Click to expand...


Some interesting view points there, like the one that "Russia didn't conquer or invade the Crimea, they were already there because they had a leasing agreement with a naval base".

Another interesting point is that of 2013/14; the Ukraine citizens want to be part of the EU but to be part of the EU, Ukraine must clean up its act in regards to internal corruption. Powerful people in the Ukraine do not want this and Russia through Putin does not want Ukraine to be part of the EU. Putin makes a very sweet deal to the Ukraine President to stay our of the EU and get closer to Russia. This infuriates the people of Ukraine, the majority want to be in the EU, they want an end to corruption. Massive protests start.

Your video shows the Ukraine as a divided country, this is no longer the case.

Putin has united the peoples of the Ukraine, by being the peoples common enemy. He has also managed to unite the majority of countries in the UN, all against Russia's invasion of the Ukraine.

Ukraine ethnic breakdown.png
 
Horror and outrage after Russian rocket attack destroys maternity hospital In Mauripol

Russia sparked an outpouring of outrage when their rockets destroyed a maternity hospital in Mariupol, according to the Ukrainian authorities.
President Volodomyr Zelensky spoke of the horror of the attack as he said children were hidden underneath the wreckage after the “direct strike by Russian troops”.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson led the condemnation of the attack on social media, his words echoed by the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.

www.standard.co.uk

Search for survivors after Russia shells Mariupol maternity hospital

President Volodymyr Zelensky said the attack was ‘final proof... that the genocide of Ukrainians is taking place’
www.standard.co.uk www.standard.co.uk
 
Now 2 weeks into this and this is looking like death by a thousand cuts for Ukraine. Russia has gained more territory, completed a land bridge to Crimea, and has started to escalate their offensive. Meanwhile, Zelensky is tossing up the idea of ditching NATO altogether.

On the economic front, Ruble has started trading again. The Central Bank of Russia has kept the Moex closed, probably indefinitely for now.

Now this:
newsinfo.inquirer.net

Russia will nationalize assets of foreign firms that leave – ruling party

Russia's ruling party, United Russia, said on Wednesday that a government commission had approved the first step towards nationalizing assets of foreign firms that leave the country in the
newsinfo.inquirer.net newsinfo.inquirer.net
 
JohnDe said:
Some interesting view points there, like the one that "Russia didn't conquer or invade the Crimea, they were already there because they had a leasing agreement with a naval base".

Another interesting point is that of 2013/14; the Ukraine citizens want to be part of the EU but to be part of the EU, Ukraine must clean up its act in regards to internal corruption. Powerful people in the Ukraine do not want this and Russia through Putin does not want Ukraine to be part of the EU. Putin makes a very sweet deal to the Ukraine President to stay our of the EU and get closer to Russia. This infuriates the people of Ukraine, the majority want to be in the EU, they want an end to corruption. Massive protests start.

Your video shows the Ukraine as a divided country, this is no longer the case.

Putin has united the peoples of the Ukraine, by being the peoples common enemy. He has also managed to unite the majority of countries in the UN, all against Russia's invasion of the Ukraine.

View attachment 138870
Click to expand...
I think he was correct when saying "Russia won't accept NATO on its doorstep anymore than the Russian missiles in Cuba".
Nor would Australia accept Chinese military bases in Fiji etc.

The other interesting view was the 19th century thinking vs 21st century and the difference between Washington and Moscow.

I cannot see a way in which Russia becomes less dangerous once they get 'outspent' out of this war. His other comment of "Russia will just destroy and level Ukraine" seems to be playing out. If you are going to lose, this seems like the option that buys the most time.
 
Turkey brokering a peace, or maybe they want to keep trade going with Russia?

www.dailysabah.com

'No progress for cease-fire' in Ukraine, Russia FM talks in Turkey

The much-anticipated trilateral meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine and Turkey has concluded in Turkey's resort town of Antalya....
www.dailysabah.com www.dailysabah.com

www.dailysabah.com

Trade can be conducted in ruble, yuan, gold: ErdoÄan tells Putin

Conducting trade in national currencies was among the topics discussed during President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄanâs phone call with his Russian counterpart...
www.dailysabah.com www.dailysabah.com

Sources say Erdoğan told Putin that, apart from the euro and dollar, trade between the two countries can be carried out using the Russian ruble and Chinese yuan.


“We can do it with gold,” he was quoted as suggesting.




Moscow is likely to seek alternatives as Western sanctions have removed several Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments network. Russia could in theory try to replace SWIFT's communications system that keeps international trade flowing smoothly.


During the conversation, Erdoğan brought up the issue of the 30 ships loaded with sunflower oil raw material and wheat en route to Turkey currently waiting in the Sea of Azov, the sources said.
Click to expand...
 
Drone footage of Ukrainians attacking Tanks and other armoured vehicles, I don’t know if it’s Javelins being used but it might be, they have a maximum effective range of 4.5 km, so you can attack concentrated forces like this from a safe distance.

Drone footage shows Ukrainian ambush on Russian tanks | Ukraine | The Guardian

Armoured vehicles in built-up area about 22 miles from central Kyiv come under repeated attack
amp.theguardian.com amp.theguardian.com
 
Value Collector said:
Drone footage of Ukrainians attacking Tanks and other armoured vehicles, I don’t know if it’s Javelins being used but it might be, they have a maximum effective range of 4.5 km, so you can attack concentrated forces like this from a safe distance.

Drone footage shows Ukrainian ambush on Russian tanks | Ukraine | The Guardian

Armoured vehicles in built-up area about 22 miles from central Kyiv come under repeated attack
amp.theguardian.com amp.theguardian.com
Click to expand...

Ben Barry, a former tank commander with the British army and a land warfare specialist with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a thinktank, said: “They either think they are going through a safe area, or they were not well trained or they are moving fast for some other requirement.”​
​
Tanks moving through a built-up area should normally use close infantry support to prevent ambushes from the side of the road, Barry said. Having watched the footage, he said he thought the Russian armour was probably targeted with artillery or mortar fire because the nature of the blasts.​
​
On the audio, the Russian apparently reporting the ambush speculates that they may been targeted by Turkish Bayraktar drones, but parts of the video show poor conditions and low cloud cover not considered ideal for drone attacks.​
 
JohnDe said:
Ben Barry, a former tank commander with the British army and a land warfare specialist with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a thinktank, said: “They either think they are going through a safe area, or they were not well trained or they are moving fast for some other requirement.”​
​
Tanks moving through a built-up area should normally use close infantry support to prevent ambushes from the side of the road, Barry said. Having watched the footage, he said he thought the Russian armour was probably targeted with artillery or mortar fire because the nature of the blasts.​
​
On the audio, the Russian apparently reporting the ambush speculates that they may been targeted by Turkish Bayraktar drones, but parts of the video show poor conditions and low cloud cover not considered ideal for drone attacks.​
Click to expand...
It could be, but it seems to accurate for mortar rounds.
 
JohnDe said:
Putin only wants the Ukraine, and China will not support Russia in any other territory claim.
Click to expand...
Agree.
Don't think Russia would be able to support anything further from here anyway. It's likely the Ukrainians will grind them out over the next few weeks that will tax his forces.

Putin currently has air superiority and is still taking heavy losses. Imagine ground troops and air-force going up against the western world. He wouldn't risk nuclear destruction (or those around him wouldn't) either.

He can just (barely) justify Ukraine to the Russian people. Anything further will see him ousted. Imo he wants a resolution as quick as possible. Russians are losing badly at the propaganda war and the eyes of the world are watching.
 
moXJO said:
Agree.
Don't think Russia would be able to support anything further from here anyway. It's likely the Ukrainians will grind them out over the next few weeks that will tax his forces.

Putin currently has air superiority and is still taking heavy losses. Imagine ground troops and air-force going up against the western world. He wouldn't risk nuclear destruction (or those around him wouldn't) either.

He can just (barely) justify Ukraine to the Russian people. Anything further will see him ousted. Imo he wants a resolution as quick as possible. Russians are losing badly at the propaganda war and the eyes of the world are watching.
Click to expand...
I think what this misadventure of Putin's might show is that any stored of wide-scale conventional warfare as in a conventional world war 3, would be absolutely intolerable and likely backfire spectacularly on the new world order (tin foil hats on, chaps).

... And nuclear exchange is just unthinkable, if that happens we'll have probably a few hours to say to each other it's been nice knowing you.
 
moXJO said:
Agree.
Don't think Russia would be able to support anything further from here anyway. It's likely the Ukrainians will grind them out over the next few weeks that will tax his forces.

Putin currently has air superiority and is still taking heavy losses. Imagine ground troops and air-force going up against the western world. He wouldn't risk nuclear destruction (or those around him wouldn't) either.

He can just (barely) justify Ukraine to the Russian people. Anything further will see him ousted. Imo he wants a resolution as quick as possible. Russians are losing badly at the propaganda war and the eyes of the world are watching.
Click to expand...
Dont be fooled by the mostly one sided media reporting you see everyday on the news.

As far as I know, Russia has over a million military personnel. They only sent an estimated 100k+ worth into Ukraine. They are just taking it slow to limit civilian casualties as well as to capture as much of Ukraine intact as possible. He needs Ukraine to be functioning to use it as an effective buffer to the NATO border countries. When you own the skies, you basically win the war. Putin is taking his own sweet time. I had thought they would try to end things before the spring weather starts thawing out the ground this month, but i guess they can use railway to bring in hardware/tanks now they have the eastern regions secured.

He doesnt need to justify anything, he had already in 2020 managed to get the people to vote for a removal of his 2 term limit( much like what Xi had done in china) so he gets to continue indefinitely as Prez. He is still hugely popular to the majority of Russian.

Whilst economic sanctions have caused some short term economic problems,
1) Russia has the gold to back their currency, unlike USA fiat dollars.
2)Russia can switch from SWIFT to other payment systems like chinese CIPS for bank payments
3) they have already started using chinese UNIONPay for businesses via phone apps/cards (chinas version of visa which now does higher transaction value than visa system).
4) Europe and the world is still buying their oil and gas (albeit at higher prices than before the war!! ROFL..) so the war is making them more money? Especially if you look at the other major stuff they still export like wheat and a whole heap of rare minerals and commodities, their exports may have gone down 50% but all these commodities have gone up 50%, some even 100%. Just look at the nickel prices. Even our coal export prices have shot up 30%!!!

Germany Says It Won't Stop Buying Russian Energy Despite Moscow’s War in Ukraine
www.wsj.com

Germany Says It Won't Stop Buying Russian Energy Despite Moscow’s War in Ukraine

Germany will continue to buy natural gas, oil and coal from Russia despite Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, the government in Berlin said Monday. Germany and Europe are too dependent on Russian energy imports for power, heating and industrial production to be able to cut trade links wit
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com

5) Businesses like macdonalds closing but Russia is going to allow their own companies to take over the american patents :)

Theres just a few small anti-war rallies last week that have been shutdown quick smart in the usual fashion.

Not many countries are on the side of the americans on this one, and unfortunately USA has its own internal problems with high inflation now almost certainly going into hyperinflation coupled with a recession -- STAGFLATION ala 1970s again. In fact I dont think USA can continue with their sanctions much longer, especially if the democrats wanna stay in power in the upcoming US election.
 
bluekelah said:
Dont be fooled by the mostly one sided media reporting you see everyday on the news.

As far as I know, Russia has over a million military personnel. They only sent an estimated 100k+ worth into Ukraine. They are just taking it slow to limit civilian casualties as well as to capture as much of Ukraine intact as possible. He needs Ukraine to be functioning to use it as an effective buffer to the NATO border countries. When you own the skies, you basically win the war. Putin is taking his own sweet time. I had thought they would try to end things before the spring weather starts thawing out the ground this month, but i guess they can use railway to bring in hardware/tanks now they have the eastern regions secured.

He doesnt need to justify anything, he had already in 2020 managed to get the people to vote for a removal of his 2 term limit( much like what Xi had done in china) so he gets to continue indefinitely as Prez. He is still hugely popular to the majority of Russian.

Whilst economic sanctions have caused some short term economic problems,
1) Russia has the gold to back their currency, unlike USA fiat dollars.
2)Russia can switch from SWIFT to other payment systems like chinese CIPS for bank payments
3) they have already started using chinese UNIONPay for businesses via phone apps/cards (chinas version of visa which now does higher transaction value than visa system).
4) Europe and the world is still buying their oil and gas (albeit at higher prices than before the war!! ROFL..) so the war is making them more money? Especially if you look at the other major stuff they still export like wheat and a whole heap of rare minerals and commodities, their exports may have gone down 50% but all these commodities have gone up 50%, some even 100%. Just look at the nickel prices. Even our coal export prices have shot up 30%!!!

Germany Says It Won't Stop Buying Russian Energy Despite Moscow’s War in Ukraine
www.wsj.com

Germany Says It Won't Stop Buying Russian Energy Despite Moscow’s War in Ukraine

Germany will continue to buy natural gas, oil and coal from Russia despite Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, the government in Berlin said Monday. Germany and Europe are too dependent on Russian energy imports for power, heating and industrial production to be able to cut trade links wit
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com

5) Businesses like macdonalds closing but Russia is going to allow their own companies to take over the american patents :)

Theres just a few small anti-war rallies last week that have been shutdown quick smart in the usual fashion.

Not many countries are on the side of the americans on this one, and unfortunately USA has its own internal problems with high inflation now almost certainly going into hyperinflation coupled with a recession -- STAGFLATION ala 1970s again. In fact I dont think USA can continue with their sanctions much longer, especially if the democrats wanna stay in power in the upcoming US election.
Click to expand...

I think this war will be more costly then Russia originally anticipated. I don't think Ukraine is winning. But I do think they are grinding out enough damage to be costly. The Ukrainian propaganda war is also beating the Russians at this stage. It's hard to keep a hostile country. But I think negotiations will eventually take place.

Missiles are a lot cheaper than tanks and aircraft. Seems like weakening Russia by proxy. Ultimate irony is its basically Russian vs their cousins in a battle to the death. All the while NATO and US provide the weapons.

I think it's taking a while as Russia was trying to keep civilian casualties to a minimum. Not sure how that's going at the moment though.

I think Putin is coming to the end of his term if it drags for much longer.
 

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