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War threat in Ukraine

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divs4ever said:
and the Eastern areas appear to be the more Russia -friendly areas
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I take it back to the Scythians and Pontic Greek admix. Then the Slavic hordes in their eastward quests. Sure , Kievan Rus was the beginning of nation building but this quickly moved N and E. Cyril brought Christianity and an alphabet. Then of course Chinggis (Genghis) Khan brought trauma and pillage across the land, and other migrating steppe peoples passed through. An influx of Jews (for this was part of The Pale) and the Ruthenian identity during the Polish-Lithuanian years. The Hapsburgs asserted themselves in the west . Peasantry was predominant, the elites and landlords were mainly imports. And then there were the Crimean Tatars, and their Khanate. Still struggling for an identity, 19th C nationalism and urbanisation were there in the mix, but so was Russian desire for a warm water port. Sebastopol? Balaclava? Industrial development saw Russians move into the Donetsk in big numbers. Come the 1917 revolution, the commies were well organised and took control.
And how did that go? Not well, with forced collectivisation. Holodomor. Russification. WWII was messy.

But Stalin drew the borders and ceded Crimea to Ukraine. Also, during entire USSR time, they held 3 seats at the UN, including Ukraine and Belorussia.
 
As you say, it is not uncomplicated.

History is written by the victors and who knows what the truth is.

The only experience I look forward to in continental Europe east of Alsace is to walk through the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin late in a northern autumn of an afternoon from West to East. I will savour that cold wind that many who thought to conquer Russia from Napoleon to Hitler would have felt on looking back in ignominy in their failure.

Ukraine will stay in the Russian orbit no matter what the Daily Mail says when it is looking for a headline.

gg
 
the current theory is Russia must invade ( if it does ) in Winter as the frozen ground will support the heavy armour

and Spring will make the ground too mushy

problem one Russians live a little North of the Ukraine ( and even controlled it for a while )

they have fought Napoleon and Nazi Germany in the Winter , so know precisely the problems an attacking army faces

problem two , you can bet the Russians have vehicle modifications for swampy/mushy ground ( if the old farm excavator could cope , i bet the Russians will ALSO )

problem three , Russia has huge transport planes ( and helicopters ) i bet they could fly the tanks and missile batteries right to the outskirts of any city they choose to flatten

Russia has already annexed Crimea , does it really want anything else ( apart from the money the Ukraine defaulted on in 2014 )
 
Another video highlights 12 Russian Pantsir-S anti-aircraft missile systems to Belarus ostensibly for joint military exercises.

Ukraine now estimates Russia’s manpower is up to 130,000, with the US claiming it has sufficient firepower to attempt a partial or complete invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said: ”Now we are observing units that include some 112,000 people, and it's about 130,000 with the naval and aviation components.

29 January 2022
 
Mr Boulegue, a Research Fellow with the London-based think tank's Russia and Eurasia Programme, was speaking at a time of rising tensions, with more than 100,000 Russian troops located close to the Ukrainian border. Many analysts have suggested it is just a question of time before Mr Putin green-lights military action - and while Mr Boulegue refused to give an unequivocal answer, he nevertheless struck a pessimistic note.
30 January 2022

​

 
It is my guess that Putin is weighing up just how far he can afford to move troops into the Ukraine and which parts. He knows Europe as the EU is too weak and fragmented, the UK power wise is a joke but many oligarchs hold assets in London and the rest of the UK, and America is not really over bothered if Russia take over only part of the Ukraine. Putin knows that after the Afghanistan debacle the United States will not want to move American troops into a similar situation. Biden has significant strength despite leading up front Zimmer frame and all.
 
A full on invasion of “Ethnic Ukraine “ is unlikely.

An annexation of Donblast in to Russia more likely will satisfy Putin and the West.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
A full-on invasion of “Ethnic Ukraine “ is unlikely
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But if push comes to shove, they will inflict economic damage, destroying infrastructure away from the fault lines.

Donetsk and Luhansk, the two eastern regions are ethnically majority Russian, anyway, and linguistically aligned. But there is a polyglot nature, of the two entwined communities throughout. The history is ever thus. (read up on Taras Bulba to see how fragmented the politics can get!). The Russian Orbit indeed.

The Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic declared independence from Ukraine following an unofficial status referendum in May 2014.
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... and don't mention ongoing sores like Transnistria (not to be confused with Trans-Dnieper), a member of the Community for Democracy and Rights of Nations ( Сообщество за демократию и права народов), also commonly known as the Commonwealth of Unrecognized States.
 
Some might say Taras Bulba is Russian propaganda, actually all those not Russian portrayed in the film might say that. But it does show the politics, just keep in mind it is presented and approved from the Russian version of history
 
againsthegrain said:
Some might say Taras Bulba is Russian propaganda, actually all those not Russian portrayed in the film might say that. But it does show the politics, just keep in mind it is presented and approved from the Russian version of history
Click to expand...
The victors write the history.

gg
 


The Patriarch Kirill, head of Russian orthodox church, in 2012. The $30,000 Breguet watch ... now you see it, now you don't.

They've come a long way. With Stalin, it was people that disappeared from the record.
 
noirua said:
Russia and China join hands so China gets Taiwan and Russia Ukraine. Both may move simultaneously as the west is forced to watch.
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Russia moves first by stealth and deception. Western countries put sanctions on Russia but can’t hurt themselves so leave commodities alone, gas, oil & minerals keep Russian economy propped up. No military action against Russia.
China accepts the West’s tepid response as a signal of nations unable to rally their constituents to follow through with the defense packs agreed to after the last world war. China start increasing their military buildup around Taiwan in preparation of following Russia’s lead.

The West is weakened to the point that fear creates further nationalism and isolation.

Russia & China become the dominant world power.

That’s how it could go if our governments, with the support of the people, don’t start working together on a solution.
 
but our governments don't want use working TOGETHER , they only want YES men and minions , and because of that they will still fall

China and Russia could easily just rattle sabres until most of the West implodes from greed stupidity and corruption
 

Australia and the Australian government have done well to stand up to a bully, but we’re only small fish on our own.
 
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