War threat in Ukraine

[noirua]

I'm just reposting part of a post I just did on the Ruble thread.

For those interested in following matters Ukranian on TV I find the best method of following the events is to set your VPN to the UK and go to https://wwitv.com/tv_channels/b5791.htm

Click on News TV English and it will give you a choice all the way from Sky News UK ( not our idiotic one here ) to Russia Today (RT). I have not been impressed with the Australian coverage of events nor that of the BBC.

gg

Russia TV RT seems to have its main interest in Eastern Ukraine - Donetsk - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk & Kharkiv Oblast https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv_Oblast & Luhansk Oblast https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_Oblast

The main problem with this is it is war and each side has the need for propaganda to favour them.

I favour the TV programme Aljazeera that reports information with much fewer opinions. RT TV favours Russia in its choice of views. BBC favours Ukraine in its choice of views,

Aljazeera TV: https://www.aljazeera.com/live/

 

[sptrawler]

I'm just reposting part of a post I just did on the Ruble thread.

For those interested in following matters Ukranian on TV I find the best method of following the events is to set your VPN to the UK and go to https://wwitv.com/tv_channels/b5791.htm

Click on News TV English and it will give you a choice all the way from Sky News UK ( not our idiotic one here ) to Russia Today (RT). I have not been impressed with the Australian coverage of events nor that of the BBC.

gg

Thanks for the heads up GG, one question, how do you set you VPN? Or better still what is your VPN.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks for the heads up GG, one question, how do you set you VPN? Or better still what is your VPN.

Nord VPN.

gg

 

[waterbottle]

 

[MovingAverage]

It's really not going well for Vlad.

 

[JohnDe]

It's really not going well for Vlad.

View attachment 138357

Be wary. So far Russia hasn’t sent in their elite regiments, why is that?

 

[waterbottle]

Be wary. So far Russia hasn’t sent in their elite regiments, why is that?

Agreed.

Many social media posts are making fun of Russia's poor military performance to date but failing to acknowledge that unlike the US wars against Afghanistan and Iraq, Russia is not trying to level a country.
Their goal is to remove the government.

I think we'd be underestimating them if we assume this is all they had...

 

[MovingAverage]

Be wary. So far Russia hasn’t sent in their elite regiments, why is that?

I'm certainly no military strategist, but I am surprised at Putin sending in what appears to be a rabble of cut lunch commandos. I thought Russia would be slightly more organized for this. But lately I've been wondering whether Vlad has intentionally led with his rabble of cut lunch commandos as a deliberate strategy to wear down the Ukrainian forces to then only send in his elite regiments to finish the job against a weakened Ukrainian force.

 

[MovingAverage]

I'm certainly no military strategist, but I am surprised at Putin sending in what appears to be a rabble of cut lunch commandos. I thought Russia would be slightly more organized for this. But lately I've been wondering whether Vlad has intentionally led with his rabble of cut lunch commandos as a deliberate strategy to wear down the Ukrainian forces to then only send in his elite regiments to finish the job against a weakened Ukrainian force.

But then again Vlad has pulled out the nuke card very early, which to me suggests maybe what we are seeing from his military is all he has--a rabble of cut lunch commandos and nothing else. Why come out of the gate early and reach for the last resort of nukes if he had serious elite troops to come?

 

[JohnDe]

But then again Vlad has pulled out the nuke card very early, which to me suggests maybe what we are seeing from his military is all he has--a rabble of cut lunch commandos and nothing else. Why come out of the gate early and reach for the last resort of nukes if he had serious elite troops to come?

Or his Generals are mocking him.

 

[MovingAverage]

Or his Generals are mocking him.

I suspect his Generals value their lives so doubt they are mocking Vlad. Maybe his Generals are just incompetent

 

[basilio]

My understanding was the original plan was to drop 5000 elite paratroopers into Kyiv who were supposed to take the main Government buildings and in particular the President. Swift, clean and hopefully over in a day or so. Not messy at all. One of the assumptions was that Ukrainian soldiers would give up quickly against the perceived overwhelming odds

The paratroopers were repelled and the Russians have been using some pretty ordinary foot soldiers to take back the initiative. That hasn't been flash at all.

 

[martaart077]

I suspect his Generals value their lives so doubt they are mocking Vlad. Maybe his Generals are just incompetent

Some generals and military advisors will have their heads on the chopping block for the poor performance so far.
To date, their actions have been an embarrassment for Russia.

 

[MovingAverage]

Some generals and military advisors will have their heads on the chopping block for the poor performance so far.
To date, their actions have been an embarrassment for Russia.

I can't even begin to imagine what Putin has planned for some of his military's top brass.

 

[MovingAverage]

My understanding was the original plan was to drop 5000 elite paratroopers into Kyiv who were supposed to take the main Government buildings and in particular the President. Swift, clean and hopefully over in a day or so. Not messy at all. One of the assumptions was that Ukrainian soldiers would give up quickly against the perceived overwhelming odds

The paratroopers were repelled and the Russians have been using some pretty ordinary foot soldiers to take back the initiative. That hasn't been flash at all.

makes sense given he's resorting to nukes

 

[againsthegrain]

he did lose some elite commando troops + the leader when the Ukrainians took back a airport but it was only around 100-200 so not a whole army of commandos. Also the Chechen battalion, who were supposed to be hard guys got minced along with the commander.

Putin was hoping for Ukraine to give up in the face of large but novice army. Same mistakes exactly the same mistakes as Grozy... almost too stupid to make the same mistakes like you guys say he has a ace up his sleeve or his mind is fried

 

[MovingAverage]

he has a ace up his sleeve or his mind is fried

or more worrying--both

 

[JohnDe]

‘Last safe day in Kyiv’ as Russian forces close in, with an approaching military convoy three times the size as first thought.

Satellite imagery company Maxar Technology has clarified a report of a Russian military convoy approaching Kyiv, saying it is up to 40 miles (64km) long. Maxar had estimated it was 17 miles in length.

It added that new images also show ground troops and military helicopters in southern Belarus, about 30km from the border with Ukraine.

 

[JohnDe]

Putin and Russia are not going to back down, and it looks like they are sending in everything to crush the Ukraine resistance.

Expect further market volatility including stronger Australian dollar and possible European recession

The western world has not experienced a Ukraine style war since 1945. Selected markets have now responded dramatically and there are more swings to come including a likely further strengthening of the Australian dollar.

After looking at these market swings, I am going to take readers into the homes of people in both Moscow and Kyiv so readers can understand how this horrible drama could escalate much further.

And then we go to Berlin where there is a heightening sense of fear.

The gold bulls have been waiting patiently for a crisis that would send the yellow metal surging. They have their wish. But the money leaving paper currencies is also flowing into the crypto currencies as rich Russians hope the block chain trading base for crypto currencies may provide protection not available in banks. And for the first time Swiss banks have frozen Russian assets.

In coming weeks, many banks and financial institutions are going to report large losses as a result of transactions with Russians who no longer can pay.

Last week, I foreshadowed a looming cyber war. Telstra chief executive Andy Penn has now issued a warning to Australian companies.

Ukraine actually has a large number of hackers and they managed to close that Moscow Stock Exchange, but Russia has the best hacker armies and they will be let loose on the world. Meanwhile, oil, wheat and gas are surging in price which means we will benefit and those benefits could be large if the war is extended as result of the breakdown of the peace talks.

I don’t have contacts in either Ukraine or Russia but Russian-born Den Burkyin and his family migrated to Australia in 2006 and he later set up Fastlane Solutions, a technology consultancy based in Sydney. He retains contact with friends in Ukraine and Russia. Here are some of the experiences that have been related to him.

In this war, media channels whether they be in Ukraine or Russia concentrate on publishing versions of what is happening that are highly favourable to their side. It’s a repeat of what happened in both the First and Second World wars. Information on what is really happening comes from people on the ground.

Ukraine troops have bravely slowed the Russian advance and killed many Russians.

But gradually the horror of what may be ahead is becoming apparent.

Already in some of the smaller cities Russian troops have surrounded the populations and began a blockade that prevents food water, power and another essentials from coming into the city – exactly what the Germans did in the 1940s to Russia’s Leningrad, now called St Petersburg.

Russia controls the air so dropping food and/or arms into these blockaded cities is very perilous. Blockaded citizens must find away to break the blockade within one to two weeks or large numbers will begin dying. It is likely some will be forced to surrender. Of course the citizens of St Petersburg lasted two years and suffered a huge death toll.

In other smaller Ukraine cities, the Russian troops have adopted a different strategy and taken control of the streets. Many petrified families find fully armed Russian troops entering their homes. There are no rule books for the Russians.

Ukraine’s largest city Kyiv is now either surrounded or very close to being surrounded by Russian troops who will be debating whether to enter the city or to force the city into starvation via a blockade. Russia hopes that the combination of these horrific tactics will bring Ukraine to its knees in a week or two. If Russia chooses a Leningrad/Petersburg style blockade on Kyiv then the community pressure on NATO to break the blockades via high risk air drops will be intense. That may be why Putin has issued his nuclear warning.

In Moscow, well connected people can use the China/Russia trading system which avoids western sanctions.

Ordinary people go to the bank each day and withdraw the maximum amount of about 100 Australian dollars. Muscovites accept suffering but their savings have been frozen and with the Russian currency slumping costs will rise sharply. Their new hardships are blamed on the US. Soon they will hear of the rising death toll among troops in Ukraine.

Berlin is fearful because Germany has strong trade ties to Russia which will be hit by international sanctions. Russia may retaliate against these sanctions by cutting off the supply of oil and gas.

Germany is dependent on Russia for almost 65 per cent of its natural gas despite a deliberate shift towards renewable energy.

Even a temporary disruption to energy supplies would hit industrial operations, new business investment, job creation and consumer spending. A German recession extending to a European recession is possible.

All these forces will head share markets into volatile tines if the war extends into weeks, let alone months.

ROBERT GOTTLIEBSEN BUSINESS COLUMNIST

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Putin and Russia are not going to back down, and it looks like they are sending in everything to crush the Ukraine resistance.

Depending on how it pans out long term, the assaults over the last 2 days on Kharkiv and Kyiv are the stuff of War Crime Tribunals.

Cluster bombs on civilians is horror.

Europe has always been the seat of great culture, and immense genocide and cruelty.

The victors write the history. Hopefully Ukraine and NATO win.

gg