War threat in Ukraine

[xris]

Your politics is visible through your omission (take note of post #339)

Bob Hawke lied about sending forces to Gulf War

As for how you determine what a dictator is, there is plenty of easily accessible reference material.

dictator​

​

a leader who has complete power in a country and has not been elected by the people​

The Australian voter always has the power to vote for their MP and government.

Thanks for the reminder:
I missed Hawke and the Gulf War.
I tried, but unable/not sure how to edit my post and include that.

as for definitions of Dictators,
whether they get elected or not, doesn't really matter, if/when they do things contrary to the majority opinion and approval.

 

[CityIndex]

The impact of world sanctions on Russia is becoming clearer. Rouble down 30%. Banks likely to fail. Much international trade stopping.
I also saw that BP has sold out a 20% stake inan oil development with a Russian company.

Moscow braces for rouble to crash at least 25% as new sanctions hit

Russian currency expected to plunge in first day’s trading since Swift ban and ECB says state-owned Sberbank subsidiaries are set to collapse

www.theguardian.com

BP announced that they can continue to work with Russian state-owned Rosneft, but not yet clarified whether they are looking to sell their 20% stake, or write it off.

The latest annual report showed Rosneft accounted for about 1/5 of the BP's profit, which could have a significant impact on the company's share price. All trading carries risk, but it'll be worth watching how this plays out, especially when considering how many traders may have been using BP to hedge higher oil prices.

 

[basilio]

BP announced that they can continue to work with Russian state-owned Rosneft, but not yet clarified whether they are looking to sell their 20% stake, or write it off.

The latest annual report showed Rosneft accounted for about 1/5 of the BP's profit, which could have a significant impact on the company's share price. All trading carries risk, but it'll be worth watching how this plays out, especially when considering how many traders may have been using BP to hedge higher oil prices.

Not sure about that. From my reading it seems BP have decided to completely exit from Rosneft. The story seems to have been repeated across many media outlets. The City Index report also confirms the situation.

BP exiting stake in Russian oil and gas company Rosneft​

BP says it's exiting its share in Rosneft, a state-owned Russian oil and gas company in reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine
By DEE-ANN DURBIN AP Business Writer
28 February 2022, 05:54
• 2 min read

The Associated Press
FILE - A view of the BP logo at a petrol station in London, Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2017. BP PLC...
BP said Sunday it is exiting its share in Rosneft, a state-controlled Russian oil and gas company, in reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

BP has held a 19.75% stake in Rosneft since 2013. That stake is currently valued at $14 billion.

London-based BP also said its CEO, Bernard Looney, and former BP executive Bob Dudley will immediately resign from Rosneft’s board.

“Like so many, I have been deeply shocked and saddened by the situation unfolding in Ukraine and my heart goes out to everyone affected. It has caused us to fundamentally rethink BP’s position with Rosneft,” Looney said in a statement.

BP Chairman Helge Lund said BP has operated in Russia for more than 30 years.

“However, this military action represents a fundamental change,” Lund said in a statement.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the U.K.'s secretary of state for business and energy, said he welcomed BP's decision.

“Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine must be a wake up call for British businesses with commercial interests in Putin’s Russia,” Kwarteng said in a tweet.

BP said it will take two non-cash charges in the first quarter to reflect the change, including an $11 billion charge for foreign exchange losses that have accumulated since 2013.

BP exiting stake in Russian oil and gas company Rosneft

BP says it's exiting its share in Rosneft, a state-owned Russian oil and gas company in reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine

abcnews.go.com

Under growing pressure from the UK government, BP PLC announced over the weekend that its involvement with Russian State-Owned Rosneft "simply can not continue". The company has not clarified whether it is looking to sell its 20% stake in Rosneft or write it off in a move that could cost as much as $25 billion.

BP to exit Russian State Owned Rosneft Stake

www.cityindex.com.au

 

[waterbottle]

Wow

If ~80% of the IMOEX truly is owned by foreigners then they've just had a massive haircut....

 

[waterbottle]

Reinforcements now on the way...

 

[JohnDe]

Thanks for the reminder:
I missed Hawke and the Gulf War.
I tried, but unable/not sure how to edit my post and include that.

as for definitions of Dictators,
whether they get elected or not, doesn't really matter, if/when they do things contrary to the majority opinion and approval.

Definitions do matter, otherwise what is the point of language?

As for opinions and approval, every Australian government has won the opportunity by having a majority of MPs elected, each MP wins their seat by having more votes than their opponent.

The leader of a political party is elected by the members of the party, that leader then becomes Prime Minister if the party wins enough seats.

The Westminster system is the basis of government in Australia, at the state, territory and federal level. It is based on the British model of responsible government.

Under this system public sector employees serve the people of their state, territory or country by implementing the Government's policies, decisions and programs. This includes:

• understanding that ministers and the Cabinet are responsible for deciding policy, and are free to accept or reject the advice of Departments and other agencies
• accepting that although executives are under the direction of their Secretary or agency head, they have a clear duty to respond promptly and professionally to ministers’ requests for advice or information
• providing advice to ministers that is apolitical, 'frank and fearless’ and non-partisan.

Key components​

The Westminster System comprises:

1. a head of state - the Sovereign or their representative
2. an elected Parliament, made up of one or two houses
3. a government formed by the political party or coalition that has majority support in the Lower House of Parliment
4. a Prime Minister or Premier, who heads the Government
5. a ministry, drawn from members of Parliament – usually members of the Government – who exercise executive authority and are accountable to the Parliament
6. an independent judiciary
7. an apolitical professional public sector that provides the Government with impartial advice and implements the Government's policies and programs.

Separation of powers​

At the heart of the Westminster system is the concept that power is separated between the three branches of government, creating a system of checks and balances. These branches are:

• The Legislature: the Parliament, which makes the laws
• The Executive: the Governor, Prime Minister, Premier, ministers, departments and agencies, which are responsible for implementing laws
• The Judiciary: the courts, which interpret and apply the law.

The separation of powers is considered one of the cornerstones of fair government. In Australia’s Westminster system of parliamentary democracy, the separation is not total because the executive is drawn from and accountable to the Legislature.

 

[rederob]

Wow

If ~80% of the IMOEX truly is owned by foreigners then they've just had a massive haircut....

Russia's biggest problem is going to be money.
SWIFT sanctions are one thing, but Russia had amassed large foreign reserves and seemed to have overlooked the stark fact that most of these monies are held in overseas banks. Without access to their reserve funds their economy is going to crash faster than Puting ever imagined.
As for Putin's nuclear deterrent threat, perhaps he is mad enough to nuke a country he wants to be part of Russia again, but that's more in the realm of batshyt crazy so he might just work out it's not that good an idea after all.

 

[JohnDe]

Ukraine agrees to talks with Russia as Vladimir Putin puts nukes on high alert

Ukraine says it will hold talks with Russia at its border with Belarus —– near the Chernobyl exclusion zone – after a call between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko.

“The politicians agreed that the Ukrainian delegation would meet the Russian one without preconditions at the Ukraine-Belarus border, near the Pripyat River,” Mr Zelensky’s office said early on Monday (AEST).

As the talks were announced – and Western countries lined up to send arms into Ukraine and impose ever more stringent sanctions — Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his defence chiefs to put the country’s nuclear “deterrence forces” on high alert.

 

[waterbottle]

RE: nukes, I'm not familiar with various types but surely nuclear weapons sit on a spectrum from city/nation destroying variants to those able to affect local towns?
Putin threatening to use nuclear weapons does not necessarily mean he is going to use weapons that are designed to level ukraine. Would still be devastating...

 

[Smurf1976]

Not sure about that. From my reading it seems BP have decided to completely exit from Rosneft.

That seems to be the case but there's the question of exactly how they go about doing it.

The destination has been set, how they're getting to it seems less certain beyond saying it'll be rather quickly.

Where there could be surprises for investors is that realistically any Western company with operations in Russia is going to find it pretty much impossible to continue. The only question being whether it's a total write off of the investment or whether they can get some capital out but it's gone as such - if they don't then the company, regardless of who it is, is going to face some pretty massive pressure and is making themselves a target.

 

[basilio]

RE: nukes, I'm not familiar with various types but surely nuclear weapons sit on a spectrum from city/nation destroying variants to those able to affect local towns?
Putin threatening to use nuclear weapons does not necessarily mean he is going to use weapons that are designed to level ukraine. Would still be devastating...

Using tactical nuclear weapons would be the equivalent of just a little pregnant. Or a little dead.

The risk and consequences of using tactical nuclear weapons are beyond thinking.

 

[Smurf1976]

scary thing is we thought he was bluffing on the whole Ukraine war and he wasn't so now you can't assume his bluffing on atomics

Agree in regards to Ukraine specifically but I think a lesson the West needs to learn is that the warning signs have long been there in my opinion that Russia was going to cause trouble at some point, the question being with the detail.

Just my opinion but that's how it always seemed to me, a country that probably would come back and cause trouble sometime down the track. I've said it many times in the context of oil and gas especially - if someone's got lots of it and isn't democratic then trouble is more than likely.

My reasoning is simple. A dictator in charge of a disproportionate share of anything critical, either natural resources or manufacturing, and with a substantial military has massive power. Once that setup exists, peace basically relies on them being a "nice guy" who's more interested in running an oil company or some factories than in ruling the world.

 

[waterbottle]

Using tactical nuclear weapons would be the equivalent of just a little pregnant. Or a little dead.

The risk and consequences of using tactical nuclear weapons are beyond thinking.

Wouldn't they? I don't think the West would be willing to fight Russia if their nukes only a small area. Assad and Saddam (who were using chemical weapons on local populations) were easy targets as neither had capabilities that could reach the West.

 

[Country Lad]

Andrew Forrest pulls back on Russian investments, while BP will dump Rosneft stake and Norway divests​

Russian has been dealt a string of further financial blows, as global corporate giants from BP to big banks and Australia's Fortescue scramble to pull their investments out of the country.
Australia's richest man Andrew Forrest told ABC News he had pulled back his renewable energy interests in Russia, and condemned Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

 

[waterbottle]

I thought I would dive deeper into the Moscow Exchange (MOEX), given recent financial sanctions + a 40% drop in the value of the ruble.

Events are happening relatively quickly. The MOEX has now been delayed, only to open at 3pm Moscow time pending an announcement by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBRF). They had already announce earlier that selling by foreign investors had already been banned.
During previous downturns, central banks have implemented the following strategies to 'maintain market order':

1. Plunge protection teams
2. Banning of short selling
3. Massive stimulus
4. Purchase of securities

I am no expert on the CBRF, and I'm not sure what tools they've implemented in the past. But given the Putin's comments RE: nationalisation of foreign assets, my bet would be that foreign share holders are going to end up with a $0 balance.

Of interest is the composition of MOEX shareholders. This information was taken from the MOEX website on 22nd Feb 2022, so I would assume there has been some shift up until Friday last week...


So, Russia had been enjoying an increase in the number of shareholders since 2017, up ~15x to 2021.

It had a market cap of $841.85 billion USD according to World Federation of Exchanges (as of Feb 2022). The West (USA, UK, France, Canada, Sweden) own 58.7%, or $494 billion USD.

The US alone has an interest of $309 billion USD - most likely held by institutional investors - and is no longer accessible.

I ask again, contagion?

 

[Value Collector]

It just keeps getting worse--Belarus has now renounced its non-nuclear status.

Maybe it’s time to buy some Boeing shares.

 

[JohnDe]

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky says next 24 hours 'crucial' for Ukraine



If Putin goes for broke, then the Ukraine people will have no choice but to also give everything they have, and then the worst of what wars brings will come to fruition - mass casualties. Let's hope that Russian politics come to their senses.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky says next 24 hours 'crucial' for Ukraine

View attachment 138322

If Putin goes for broke, then the Ukraine people with have no choice but to also give everything they have, and then the worst of what wars brings will come to fruition - mass casualties. Let's hope that Russian politics come to their senses.

It is Putin's show.

He treats his generals like he does everyone else.

It reminds me of that movie " Death of Stalin ".



gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

It is Putin's show. He treats his generals like he does everyone else.

It reminds me of that movie " Death of Stalin ".

totally paranoid about Covid (amongst everything else), I read somewhere.

(evidently Xi or nice Imran didn't have the virus)

 

[MovingAverage]

It is Putin's show.

He treats his generals like he does everyone else.

It reminds me of that movie " Death of Stalin ".

View attachment 138323

gg

I wonder if the two buttons to the left are Putin are the ejector seats for his General's chairs.

On a serious note. There have been a few photos like this doing the rounds the last few days--I think it says a lot about Putin and his style.