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VOC - Vocus Group

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Still going north (up), closed at an ATH of $3.27. No wonder Country Lad is spending so much time on holiday with most of his recent purchases doing so well - good on him

Out of curiosity does anyone else buy the stocks he highlights on breakouts?
 
No wonder Country Lad hasn't been around for a few days he must have gone travelling with his profit so far.... or Vocus has stuffed up his lines of communication.

 
which see the shareholding diluted by 13%: what you had last week, today you only got 87% of it..
And no you can not be part of it
Highway robbery IMHO..
 
piggybank said:
Up 8.5% today to close at $5.90, having hit an ATH of $6.00 during the session. This most likely would have been attributed to the release of the Annual Report 2014 today.
Click to expand...

Nah. The report contains nothing new. The jump is on the back of it's proposal to merge with AMM. While VOC is the acquirer in the potential deal, it has probably put itself on the radar as well.
 
Hi all,

Some of you may have seen, I jumped into VOC recently with an average purchase price at $5.90.

All the entry criteria I trade on were being hit so will be watching this with interest and hopefully adding some commentary from a technical point of view (well the technical I use and how I interpret action).

Hitting a nice intraday high at $6.29 this morning, it didn't really go on with the reach upwards. Looking at the weekly, already beating the last three weeks from a volume point of view and we are only 2 out of the 5 sessions in. I'd be expecting this to pull away from it's current price and head North but that's an expectation of mine and not a promise...

Wait and see folks
 
I've had this one on my watch list for a while, waiting/hoping for a dip. I only have enough available capital to purchase either VOC or BOQ (which is running up to a div). Totally different stocks, I know.

I note that today Vocus had dropped on an overall "up" day, perhaps due to an announcement of a joint venture with Spark NZ? I don't know if the speculated merger with AMM (which I hold) is still on the cards or not.

I'd be interested to hear a fundamentalist's opinion on this company.

Thanks,

DocK
 
Share price holding steady after the Amcom merger was all wrapped up, always good to see a little post merger rally...i imagine thats about it for telco mergers now that the Amcom and iiNet mergers are done.?
 
Sold a few today, 330% profit ~ Amcom shares that i have held since 2011 ($1.53) the dividends just can't compate with the open profit...the whole sector bar telstra is due for a pull back, perhaps TLS as well when they announce details of the Philippines adventure.
 
VOC through 9 dollars today, the all time highs just keep coming, one can only hope the yield follows the share price up.
 
Just had myself a capitulation sandwich - hope I don't get indigestion.


Some of the factors I think influencing price and should be transient.

A lot of VOC holders really never recognised the merger was really a MTU takeover if you looked at how the proportional ownership worked out.

MTU is not well understood generally, so VOC holders probably don’t fully recognise the value.

TPM results from yesterday

VOC directors and management selling and leaving.

Happy for MTU to be in control and happy to take a punt at this price. Clarity over long-term management and earnings power of the combined business should clarify over the next 12 months.

Longer term – there are still question marks for me over intensity of industry competition and hence profitability. Maybe that’s already starting to be factored in and I’m buying into the start of it????
 
craft said:
Just had myself a capitulation sandwich - hope I don't get indigestion.
Click to expand...

Lol... is that better or worse than premature accumulation?

craft said:
Longer term – there are still question marks for me over intensity of industry competition and hence profitability. Maybe that’s already starting to be factored in and I’m buying into the start of it????
Click to expand...

Morgans floated a piece today that TPM gross margin could half when customers migrate from TPG's network to the NBN. It also mentioned that VOC is not actually impacted because it's already a reseller (I am not sure how correct this is).

Network access under the old Telstra copper wires was priced by ACCC on operating costs mostly, while the NBN access charges are priced to recover the capital costs. Assuming end customers can't/won't wear all the cost increases, the likes of TPG / IIN of the world will experience lower margins.

Re: competition. I am guessing the one-off NBN switch event will mean intense competition for the transition period. Providers may have to offer discounts and other incentives to sign up someone, with the hope that they'd be long term customers. I hope we won't evolve to a stage where door knockers come and try to sell me internet plans.
 
craft said:
Just had myself a capitulation sandwich - hope I don't get indigestion.
Click to expand...
I've got a fairly similar understanding of what has happened as yourself. Although wasn't really as switched on about the effective takeover by MTU.

I think you'll find that most of the selling started after the big on-market sales by two of the directors. Keen observers noticed that they were using these funds as start-up capital for another venture.

However, the CFO resigning today was interesting.

It could be linked to MTU cleaning the floors with their new found control... or there could be a bit of friction after the merger.... or it could be just people using it as a good time for a clean slate now the integration is underway. I am sure there is a story, and there has definitely been a lot of rumours around, but like all good speculation, unless you are an insider, the truth won't come out.

My view is the company can move on pretty easily from the board related events. Shouldn't have an economic impact.

BUT - the TPG report is very interesting. Not so much for the 2016 numbers, but for the 2017 forecasts. The market had TPM/VOC on pretty hefty multiples and obviously expected heavy growth. Clearly 7% isn't enough. Talk of NBN margin compression etc. However, I note that both VOC and TPM are ploughing funds into growth capex still, and I think the market is under-stating this. The NBN isn't any where near their whole business. They both have extensive infrastructure. I'm seeing a bit of the old short-term pain for long-term gain, especially in terms of TPG. Teoh who runs the show is very well known for this and is more than happy to heavily re-invest profits into growth capex and use the depreciation as a tax-shield even if it takes years for the ROIC to ramp-up.

I can't buy any VOC at the moment, I don't have any investible funds unless I sell something. Life gets in the way sometimes.
 
skc said:
Morgans floated a piece today that TPM gross margin could half when customers migrate from TPG's network to the NBN. It also mentioned that VOC is not actually impacted because it's already a reseller (I am not sure how correct this is).
Click to expand...
My thesis for my MTU investment has always been that they are the lowest cost reseller and will have a clear first mover experience in the NBN reselling world. Some of the recent purchases/mergers brought with it infrastructure which I'm not totally sure will be complementary, in competition or stranded by NBN. BUT the core lowest cost most experienced reseller thesis still holds as far as I'm currently concerned.
 

Prior to the M2 Merger, Vocus merged with Amcom. The proportional ownership out of that was Vocus 46% & Amcom 54%

The proportional ownership following the M2 Merger was M2 56% and Vocus 44%. Splitting between Original Vocus and Amcom the relevant ownership proportions are M2 56% Amcom 24% Vocus 20%.

Spenceley (Vocus main shareholder) has now sold 76% of his holdings and Girst (Amcom main shareholder ) 35%. No material sales from M2 directors.


This is the makeup of the new board

David Spence: Non-Executive Chairman: Vocus origin
Craig Farrow: Non-Executive Deputy Chairman:M2 origin
Vaugh Bowan: Executive Director:M2 origin
James Spenceley: Executive Director: Vocus origin
Jon Bret: Non-Executive Director: Vocus origin
Tony Girst: Non-Executive Director: Amcom origin
Michael Simmons: Non-Executive Director: M2 origin
Rhoda Phillipo: Non-Executive Director: M2 origin


This is the make up of what I consider to be the key named Managers

Geoff Horth: CEO: M2 origin
Rick Correll: CFO: Vocus origin (resigned today)
M Callander: Chief Executive NZ: M2 origin
S Carter: COO: M2 origin
A Jegathesan: Secretary: M2 origin


Basically it seems to me M2 are firmly in control and the CFO resignation at this point if he doesn't fit the M2 culture doesn't surprise. How much more price pressure remains as the company finds its natural shareholding base remains to be seen. Spenceley did seem to have some ardent supporters, however personally I think Bowen/Horth increasing control is a positive hence why I see this as an opportunity. Spenceley, Teoh and Bowan I think have all done a great jobs for their relevant companies as entrepreneurs in the Telco industry, but Horth as an operational CEO is an unsung hero - If he resigns I'd get nervous.
 
Just comments in general - RSP's like VOC & TPG will be under intense pressure with dropping margins with the NBN, the cost of supplying the service are much greater than the amount consumers will bear, so two things happen, firstly the RSP's grossly oversell the service, which causes congestion and consumer fury at not getting what they are paying for and of course margins drop.

To give you an idea of the scale of the problem, the CSV charges for a 100mbps connection are over $1500 per month - so if my RSP were to provide a continuous 100mbps service to me - which is what I am paying for - they would make a massive loss! (there are other smaller costs as well.)

So RSP's run very low contention ratios, hoping like hell that not all the customers are trying to use all of the speed and date at the same time of day.

The double wammy is that at the same time users habits are changing with lots of users signing up to streaming services like Netflix which means the load on the infrastructure is quite different to when people just browsed the web and checked their email.

Its not a sector I have any interest in being invested in.
 
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