Got into VOC this week. SP has been pretty weak and I haven't filled right up on VOC yet. With data rates increasing exponentially at 9x earnings this looks like a pretty good buy. Time will tell.
Got into VOC this week. SP has been pretty weak so I haven't filled right up on VOC yet. With data rates increasing exponentially and the stock on 9x earnings this looks like a pretty good buy. Time will tell.
VOC had roughly 3m of its NPAT as an FX gain I think..will have a look later today.
Got into VOC this week. SP has been pretty weak and I haven't filled right up on VOC yet. With data rates increasing exponentially at 9x earnings this looks like a pretty good buy. Time will tell.
$3.67m FX income before tax so ~$2.57m after tax. Strip that out and the NPAT ~$7.82m. On an enlarged shares on issue of 61m, that's 12.8cps. So current share price is ~PE 10.4 - a bit higher than 9x but isn't expensive for the growth that VOC can potentially achieve.
skc said:I do think this chart is interesting.
Good first half guidance guidance out today. EBITDA and excluding FX gains and losses up 63%, revenue up 57%. No debt.
Last year they had NPAT/EBITDA ~60%, so the guidance extrapolates to a full year EPS ~15c. But with growth like these you think a PE of 14+ wouldn't be unwarranted in the right market.
The year before NPAT/EBITDA was 45%. IMO, a company like VOC has fairly high fixed costs (relative to their own costs), ie they buy/build/lease the network and then have to sell bandwidth on it. Whether they have 1 customer or 1000 their network costs remain fairly static. It's possible that because they haven't started to earn on their dark fibre network in this half NPAT/EBITDA will be similar (or may have regressed) but as they fill out their capacity marginal cost of delivery should fall.
IMO, anyway.
After last year, 14x earnings seems like the Wonderful World of Oz!
I took the full year figures... NPAT = $8.11m, EBITDA = $13.48m. NPAT/EBITDA ~60%.
Agree with the operational leverage for VOC's earning. So I hope the 60% can be replicated and is conservative.
Sorry, I was a bit unclear, I meant the 2010 year was 45%. Hopefully the trend continues up.
Well... the account says NPAT/EBITDA was only 46%. If you use the underlying NPAT it's 52.7%. I don't really fully understand their account entry known as
EPS is ~5.5c so not quite the number I was hoping for... and full year EPS of 15c is definitely not going to happen.
Might still be a decent longer term hold for those with the patience. But a breakeven trade for me just trying to ride the upgrade..
Known as...??
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