Vishy's Trading Blog

[vishalt]

I bought PetroChina @ $18.90HK and it has already surged 4%+ to $19.60 in today's trade, how insane!

I sold Exxon Mobil off when I read PetroChina overtook GE as the world's second-biggest company, and after reading the site and seeing how many projects PC has, and the hype about the Chinese government trying to cool the Chinese market down by allowing their people to buy Hong Kong shares made it all the more tempting.

I bought PetroChina @ $18.90HK and it has already surged 4%+ to $19.60 in today's trade, how insane!

Bought more NAB as it dipped to $41.70 yesterday, its the only major bank that hasn't approached/hit its all time high because everyone is paying attention to WBC/ANZ as they're reporting sooner.

I'm still firm on Rio being an extremely strong performer with the merger of Alcan just on the horizon of completion.

Longed Newcrest as it broke bounced off support and gold surged overnight.

Shorted the index because the Dow took a pummel.

Nice $$ today!

 

[vishalt]

Bought NCM @ 28 and sold @ $29.60 as it approached its all time highs.

The market is experiencing increased volatality (not that it wasn't volatile already).

Expect these hiccups along the way, remember the Dow has been in an uptrend since July 06 to July 07, that's 1 year of upward run, expect periods of shock & consolidation.

The US economy still continues to grow (stuff what the media paints), the Fed will act as needed to stimulate growth, and earnings HAVEN'T even been that bad and they're predicted to be double digits next quarter.

It's a testing time, but its a time to hold on and if you have low gearing and hedging abilities you can ride this out.

 

[moneymajix]

Congrats, on NCM.

 

[Sean K]

I bought more last week on likely breakout from the pennant. Looks like it may fail a tad....

Or, perhaps the fall will be short lived and it's an opp to buy more.....

 

[vishalt]

I think you may be right in your analysis Kennas, NCM is looking good for further gains with a US cut.

 

[vishalt]

I recently went against my discipline of maintaining low gearing, a maximum of 20%.

I was hitting it pretty fast when I decided to buy PetroChina and do some other trading, it makes me uncomfortable.

I sold PetroChina at $19.26HK after buying at $18.88 and AMAZINGLY I took a small loss due to Hong Kong's high interest rates!

To hedge against the big market fall of yesterday not that I was worried anyway) I hedged my portfolio by shorting BHP at $45.66, luckily for me it came out with a quarterly update that analysts didn't like so I closed it for a small profit.

I shorted the Nikkei225 as its a pretty weak market and very sensitive to US news, shorted at 16,400 and was stopped out at 16,500 when the US reversed course.

I continue on to Rio Tinto and NAB, it seems I can only handle a maximum of 2 stocks at a time with the gearing policy I use, the rest are trades with strict stop-losses.

I hope the market falls further, the lines are points where I'd buy more.

 

[vishalt]

Well since its a blog why not, thanks to the stock market my savings have doubled in 2 months and I'm still going strong!

It's unusual being an investor, I recently sold NCM at $29.60 - its now $31 today. I sold NAB yesterday at $42.01 and it surged to $42.70 today.

I say its unusual because timing is impossible, but there are just endless opportunities in this market!

Anyway my gearing has dropped to just below 5%, very nicely in my comfort zone and I think Rio will really start kicking ass soon.

--

Rio Tinto has stepped up to the next level in the commodities fight, I hope everyone who holds Rio is excited as I am about the Alcan acquisition.

Alcan joins Rio Tinto to create global aluminium leader

Alcan today joined the Rio Tinto group following the successful Offer for Alcan by a subsidiary of Rio Tinto. The expanded aluminium product group, formed by the combination of Alcan and Rio Tinto's existing aluminium assets, today became the new global leader in aluminium and will be known as Rio Tinto Alcan.

Rio Tinto chief executive, Tom Albanese and Rio Tinto Alcan chief executive, Dick Evans hosted special events at Rio Tinto Alcan's Montreal headquarters and highlighted the opportunities created by bringing Alcan into the Rio Tinto Group, and the potential for continued strong growth in the aluminium sector. Similar employee events took place in Brisbane.

Last I checked analysts at Morningstar & I think UBS and several others rated it $122+, but I think it could go much much higher given aluminum's potential and the ongoing boom.

--

My average price for Rio stands at $109 with 205 shares, it's up 8 per cent in 2 days in London (but that usually doesn't translate onto our market for some reason

 

[vishalt]

My Rio Tinto Alcan shares now average around $110, I added another lot today at $110.60 which just soared to $113 in the last 30 minutes, momentum at its finest!

I sold NAB a bit too early, my plan had conviction, I just dogged it , its now $43.50!! lol, oh well these things happen.

Imo the world is waiting on the European stock markets to break past all-time highs, they're close to doing it but SO bloody slow..

 

[vishalt]

Big caps for the win, moderate gains and moderate risk!

I bought SGB at $35.40 as it had a pretty nice correction and well its a fantastic, liquid and mostly secure stock anyway .

I was quite lucky today... I didn't know it was reporting lol so it smashed estimates and surged a $1+ - I'm quite lucky!

SGB is the best bank to hold in my opinion. It moves really fast, has a nice dividend and is the most likely takeover target because of its size.

I continue to hold Rio Tinto Alcan even though it fell today, I'm confident it'll rise in the medium/long term.

 

[vishalt]

wow these things surged today, w00t $1200!

 

[prawn_86]

Looks like your set with Rio today Vishy. Alcan offer has reached 90% acceptance threshold

 

[vishalt]

getting smashed today but never to fear, ill just short BHP/index and buy more rio as it drops

 

[vishalt]

The Japanese index is actually a pretty damn easy one to make money in because its so weak and so laggy!

Once the US futures started tumbling, taking the SPI200 and FTSE down with by a good 1%, Japan's Nikkei index was the only one in gains ... essentially still lagging.

I shorted the Nikkei at around 16300 and woke up to see at 16100, a 200Y gain, and then the US market started suddenly recovering, the FTSE and the Aussie futures made rapid gains, and once again the Nikkei, still in losses, lagged.

So I went long at 16100 and sold it when I came home at 16295, an easy gain.

The Jap stock market might be slow and painful but its a damn good market for short-term index trades.

I bought SGB at an average price of $35.90 and dumped it at $36.92 today, I just want to lock in my gains as I go and find a cheaper bank.

I continue to hold Rio Tinto Alcan as my major asset.

 

[vishalt]

BHP made a bid for Rio,

Rio holders rejoice, coz we're going to see it $145-$150 tomorrow.

YES!!!!!

I also longed the FTSE & Nikkei and making gains of 60 pounds and lots and lots of yen (i can barely count that currency)

 

[vishalt]

Okay this is how it works, BHP and Rio are hand-holders who catch up to each others price, Rio always outperforms BHP in the short-term but BHP starts steaming soon after.

If you're holding Rio, DUMP IT tomorrow and buy only a few more, incase BHP makes a higher offer.

I've checked the premiums now, Rio's P/E has SURGED to 22, while BHP is still 16, there is a LOT of room to make money in BHP!

I'm dumping Rio tomorrow and looking to buy around 2000 shares of BHP.

And hey you never know, Rio could gang up Teck/Xstrata to make a hostile bid for BHP in return - I know that sounds crazy, but BHP making a bid for Rio was NOT conceivable itself in the first place.

 

[vishalt]

Well Rio is officially super-expensive, I do not touch stocks with a P/E of 25, I sold it off at $135, it felt crushing to see it surge to $150 today ... but hey, I'm the one who called on Rio as the best stock to invest in!

BHP is getting extremely cheap and these prices are just irresistible.

The worlds biggest miner is just on a P/E of 16, Rio is at a staggering 25, imo its suicidal to make a bet on Rio unless you love lottery tickets.

BHP introduced a sweetener today, a $30b buyback should they agree for a merge, but its not enough for Rio.

I think BHP will launch another bid, but its just too risky to buy it at such a price, and whats the most it can do, probably $160-$200? And if it falls it'll slide to a $100.

Should the bid fail or not pass competition regulators then people will pull out of Rio and restore their stakes in BHP again, BHP is at a ridiculous discount!

I've bought at $44, $43, $42 and $41.50, I hope it falls down to $38.50 where there is some heavy support, but even then it's still a fantastic buy!

 

[frosty]

hope your right i brought BHP for 4350and 4250 last week lets hopeit goes back up to 4700!

 

[vishalt]

I see no reason why it shouldn't, a broker I read in the Fin Review says $55+, most analysts I spoke to at work say this is an easy buying opportunity.

Just hold on and don't buy big, I wouldn't be surprised if it falls a bit more to those support points on my chart.

 

[vishalt]

BHP has fallen around 15% from its all-time highs now so it presents a good opportunity.

I'll just reinterate that this stock is the worlds biggest miner, it has all the fundamentals behind it like the Australian Cricket Team.

The world's biggest copper mine in Chille, Olympic Dam, Pilbara Iron Ore with its own rail line, plenty of other Zinc/Aluminum/Coal mines/projects and its bloody big petroleum division.

Is there any reason why this stock should fundamentally perform bad? No!

If you're worried about BHP going down I suggest you not look at the computer screen for several weeks/months, its extremely natural for predator stocks to go down when they make a bid.

There's no doubt that its takeover for Rio would be an expensive one, but just think about the upside it would have? Rio's big mines, Alcan, more Pilbara, Ranger mine.

A merge between BHP and Rio will take a year and could get knocked back by the EU, and I seriously doubt investors will focus on it too much till it passes all regulatory approvals.

BHP's P/E has fallen to around 14, almost 10% below the market and sectors average P/E of 16.

This is free money!

I keep topping up at the lines on my charts and I've also shorted 10% of the capital I have long - to the British variant of Billiton, which I've shorted to make money while the stock continues to fall in the short-term.

ALUE Company All Ords Sector
P/E ratio 14.78 16.45 15.42

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 275.0 302.9 347.2 311.5
DPS 55.4 62.0 73.3 76.8

 

[overule]

Interesting and i firmly believe BHP will perform well in the long term.

How much more do you think BHP will fall ? I am looking forward to be filling up anytime next week.