VBA - Virgin Blue Holdings

blogs said:

What did I say-up 7% Really need to start listening to myself one of these days I tell myself its going down but hold, I tell myself its going up and dont buy

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Dont worry blogs i started tracking VBA 3 weeks ago and made a small error in the first week then learnt from it, follow the range like what greg said and you should be okay.

anyone that bought at close yesty will be happy.

Picked up some on Friday at 43.5c. Surely this must be getting undervalued. Market Cap only $463 million. Despite their drop in profit they are still profitable overall. Oil prices have fallen, not to mention the fact 72% of their fuel requirements for FY09 are capped at US$112bbl. Anything I have missed?

ands said:

Picked up some on Friday at 43.5c. Surely this must be getting undervalued. Market Cap only $463 million. Despite their drop in profit they are still profitable overall. Oil prices have fallen, not to mention the fact 72% of their fuel requirements for FY09 are capped at US$112bbl. Anything I have missed?

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Apart from the fact that airlines are one of the most volatile industries to invest in, volumes are still pretty high, indicating that Toll shareholders are still selling.
If oil drops much further, hedging their fuel at USD112 may prove to be a competitive disadvantage.

Government departments are killing off aviation faster than any other factor.

Fees and charges are increasing without any justification and the service is inversely proportional to the charges.

When you get public servants trying to run a taxpayer built entity like private company without the ability or basic skills then its no wonder that international airlines see Australian airspace management being on par with some of the worst in the world.

Unknown to the travelling public we currently have a procedure known as "TIBA" in Australia.

"TIBA" stands for "Traffic Information Broadcast by Aircraft" (also sometimes "Traffic Information Broadcast Area"). It is a procedure that is used by pilots flying aircraft through airspace that is not monitored by Air Traffic Control. It occurs in some "third world" nations. Pilots must broadcast their positions on a common radio frequency and arrange their own separation with other pilots. In Australia, TIBA is now occuring almost daily due to a critical shortage of Air Traffic Controllers.

The attached pic is from Airservices site and the link to The Age tells the real story.

http://business.theage.com.au/busin...ill-to-air-traffic-control-20081006-4v4k.html

At 27c do people think this represents good value?

What is Virgin's balance sheet like at the moment...

dan-o said:

At 27c do people think this represents good value?

What is Virgin's balance sheet like at the moment...

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I picked some up at .27 cents and think it represents great value. However the market sentiment is not recognising that presently, its not good at all in particular toward aviation where business is trending down but could be ok. VBA is still profitable but for how long? That is the question on market mind. Its a great long term holding I think but in short term could be a little risky. the balance sheet is not bad, just check the company's website and do your homework and you will see for yourself.

I'd be looking hard to see how much of VBA's fuel is hedged at USD112 and what it would cost to unwind this if PoO remains down in the $60/70 range.

Disc: Not holding.

I think the balance sheet is not looking very good at the moment because VBA is funding the set up of V-Australia (the international carrier) which is not yet making any return on investment.

I think it is could be good value but the market is too wild at the momment for me to buy any.

peter g said:

I think the balance sheet is not looking very good at the moment because VBA is funding the set up of V-Australia (the international carrier) which is not yet making any return on investment.

I think it is could be good value but the market is too wild at the momment for me to buy any.

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yes the market is wild but the mood seems to be in recovery today.. I had planned to buy VBA .27 cents then sell in a few days for .31c/32c. Its worked out I could have sold today at a nice profit but decided to hold.

Whatever the balance sheet it was not bad enough for the SP to have been at .27c - this was way oversold. It has to get better and with credit easing up and oil going down it will improve outlook. At least that is how it seems to me and I will hold now and maybe sell tomorrow if things look shakey or maybe not sell. I am undecided I guess, will wait and see. I feel positive.

From the SMH...

Rex owners up Virgin stake

* Michael West
* November 3, 2008 - 9:25AM

The Singaporeans behind regional aviator Rex Airlines have quietly bought a strategic stake in Virgin Blue. They are lurking beneath the 5% disclosure threshold and had no comment when contacted by BusinessDay.

Entities associated with Rex have soaked up around 3% of the carrier. Whether Kim Hai Lim and Thian Soo Lee can get their hands on the readies to make a full bid is an issue in itself. Rex's market cap is only $120 million and though its management runs a tight ship - costs are low and government lobbying high - a scrip bid would have little chance of getting off the ground.

The move to soak up a few shares in Virgin is more likely strategic than a prelude to a bid although Virgin's bombed out share price and cash reserves could present a tasty asset strip.

At balance date Virgin had $604 million in cash. It looks cheap versus its current market cap of $360 million - and the reason is cash burn.

Thanks to a raging fuel price in the last half Virgin put its "average days cash reserves at 101" in its annual report.

Jet fuel costs have since fallen though, along with the diving oil price, and now the formidable challenge is the economy. People just don't fly as much in a downturn and recent traffic figures suggest the malaise is starting to bite.

The Virgin stock price - already under pressure from the economy and a "half-pregnant" strategy of venturing out of straight discount airline territory into international and business segments - was decimated by a barrage of selling when Toll Holdings flogged its 63% stake in the carrier to Toll shareholders via an in specie distribution in August.

The three options for the Rex shareholders would be: one, get some cash from somewhere and launch a bid then merge the two operations; two, buy cheaply and make a turn on the investment and, three, pull off a bid, strip out the cash and wind up the jet leases and other assets to make a profit.

Operationally, there is not so much in the way of synergies as a lack of overlap. It could work. Rex flies small regional routes and its fleet of turbo-prop SAABs would fit with Virgin's Embraers (a decent Brazilian jet) and its 737s.

Funding would be the issue. Via its investment arm, Temasek, the Singapore Government already owns Singapore Airlines and has a stake in discount carrier Tiger. It would not covet Virgin so Temasek is unlikely to get involved.

mwest@fairfax.com.au

BusinessDay

Just wondering if anyone has an opinion on VBA at the moment from a charting/VSA point of view.

A significant (?) change in volume and range today.

I have a price projection of up to 43c based on last run up.

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In my opinion, VBA is oversold - touched recent lows and looks to be a good buy at present.

Volume has decreased on the downward slide suggesting seller exhaustion, coupled with strong buying support at 25 and 25.5c.

This looks like it could run so will be putting on my watch list until confirmation!

cheers!

sagitar said:

In my opinion, VBA is oversold - touched recent lows and looks to be a good buy at present.

Volume has decreased on the downward slide suggesting seller exhaustion, coupled with strong buying support at 25 and 25.5c.

This looks like it could run so will be putting on my watch list until confirmation!

cheers!

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It closed at 18.5c yesterday. Whats your call now? Any chance of a takeover/hostile? Who would have the cash?

It hit 15c today. I too am wondering if it is good value! The international carrier has not been running for long enough to make any impact

i jumped on board at .17c
they seem to be holding steady lately, throughout all this volitility

This year looks like a writeoff . positive outlooks for next year

It appears there may be a capital raising announcement on the cards this week. Just wondering what others think about it?

I don't currently hold any VBA shares, so if i bought some today would i likely be eligible when they do announce it? any ideas?

Ohhh no, what are they up to this time? Is this going to be one of those, just a week ago "we wont/dont need to do a captial raising", and all of a sudden they are?

Any idea's from anyone out there on the lastest VBA tricks?

stocksontheblock said:

Ohhh no, what are they up to this time? Is this going to be one of those, just a week ago "we wont/dont need to do a captial raising", and all of a sudden they are?

Any idea's from anyone out there on the lastest VBA tricks?

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It is a cap raising alright. Doesn't take 2 days to respond to media speculation, does it?

Word is that Richard Branson will not partake...

anyone received VBA SPP offer letter yet?

thanks......................


Does anyone know if I apply for more than 1-1 share offer, if the application get more than 1-1 entitlement gets rejected, how is the extra money refunded?

Steven12 said:

anyone received VBA SPP offer letter yet?

thanks......................


Does anyone know if I apply for more than 1-1 share offer, if the application get more than 1-1 entitlement gets rejected, how is the extra money refunded?

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Previous refunds with other companies have been cheque in the mail for me. But that doesn't mean VBA won't do it differently.

31 Jul was the first day of dispatch... you should hopefully get it in the next couple of days. I have VBA with a custodian so I don't get any letter, however.