Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

VBA - Virgin Blue Holdings

oil was only up by 16 cents or so a barrel last night so, so far so good. Im very tempted to buy some more on open, only 1.3 mill up to 60, and with 20 mill odd traded a day you just never know, more and more people are holding in the high 50's and not looking to sell for a loss....lol then again

I think your right bloggs, my prediction of a cycle seems to have deminished..

MACD is in the right position for rally i think... i might jump in at close today :)
 
I wish I could share the enthusiasm but way off where i bought in :banghead:
But even a slow and steady crawl back would keep me slightly happy ;)
 
barnz-in my newbie opinion there is accumulation going on, a clear cap is has been put on 60, with million lots put up then pulled. MACD and RSI is looking the goods, plenty of upside from here, I think from memory just the assets alone are worth 50 cents a share..? Aslo oil is still dropping, down again last night to under $100 a barrel. Looking good!!
 
Market is raining on our enthusiam blogs..

support at 50, 52 and 54 respectively.. ive got a buy order in there somewhere, but im not telling! :p:
 
You're not wrong mate!! Sheesh what a open-still havent found a stock in the green lol If she can hold today and not go down 5% it will say a lot about the strength of this stock!!! Red every where!!!

Why dont you put in three orders ;) Think I might put one in at 52 just in case :)
 
Hey the 2 mill has been pulled from 60 lol!!!! Only 748k available there now!!! Buyers are holding strong, got a very good feeling bout this one-when every stock I look at is down at least 5% and this is holding I think that instills a lot of confidence!!!
 
Hey blogs the chart's cycles have been making higher lows since it bottomed out on the 22nd of August.

MACD in a good position too so im looking for a big jump tomorrow :)
 
I reckon mate :) I was seriosuly set for at least a 5% hit today, the fact it closed pretty much on open show's remarkable resiliance given the broader market today. As Big Kev (bless his soul..) would say IM EXCITED!!! :cool:
 
Energy stocks higher overnight in the US so it looks like VBA is entering the low 50s cycle again, i nearly pulled my buy order yesterday from the queue. lucky i didnt
 
Hendrick, given the OPEC announcement I would have expected oil to go up but it actually went down-it is still in a downtrend. Today/this week is short term negative sentiment due Dow and OPEC announcement, I call today a raging buy IMHO!!! Looking forward to a sensational week next week once the rubbish is cleared out-lots of volume has been removed from the run to and past 60!!:):cool:
 
lol :) I still think given the week we have had, with the markets getting smashed and OPEC, oil AND the falling AUD for this stock to be holding so well really gives me great confidence. Just wish I had more money, but I have that cash ear marked for another stock Im expecting to fall lower-MAK sub $1 soon I reckon ;)
 
Virgin is still high risk because of the ever-changing airlines environment, the question i keep asking myself is if oil has a few bullish days will that be enough to push VBA below support at 50? im had a set trade strategy for the next 4 or 5 days for VBA but i wouldnt want to be holding for any longer than that.

probably just me being pessamistic :cautious:
 
Geez I just dont know how to pick this one-she is showing so much strength!! Lots of big bids above 50, and not much above 50 for sale. Plus oil is still set to decrease by all accounts...Hmmm think its definately a HOLD

Oil prices continue to fall
September 11, 2008
AP


Oil prices closed slightly lower in jittery trading on Wednesday, as the strengthening US dollar and signs of a slowing economy outweighed inventory drops and word that OPEC would cut production.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said that crude inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels last week compared to the previous week, and that gasoline inventories fell by 6.5 million barrels.

The EIA also reported, however, that inventories of distillates - which include heating oil and diesel fuel - fell by a lower-than-anticipated 1.2 million barrels.

Refineries were running at a low 78.3 per cent of their capacity last week, the report said.

"It's being seen as somewhat aberrant because of the storms," said John Kilduff, senior vice president of risk management at MF Global LLC. "But I don't think you can ignore this data."

Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell 68 cents to settle at $US102.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after initially jumping on the EIA's report. It was crude's lowest close since April 1. The contract fell by more than $US3 a barrel in the previous session.

The supply readings came after OPEC said it would reduce output by 520,000 barrels a day.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, however, decided not to take the more dramatic step of slashing production targets. The decision was viewed as a compromise meant to avoid a backlash from the biggest petroleum consuming nations while halting the rapid decline in oil prices.

A number of analysts said they did not expect OPEC's output decision to spark a sustained rally in oil prices, as investors remain concerned over slowing economic growth in the US, Europe and Japan.

"All they're saying is, 'We've been cheating for the past year.' .... I don't think the market's going to take it that seriously," analyst and trader Stephen Schork said by phone from Vienna. "I think the general mood is we are heading lower."

Antoine Halff, an energy analyst with Newedge USA, said OPEC's move could "be the most bearish signal to date in the oil market rout."

"The ministers appear genuinely concerned that the bottom is falling out of global demand and that once depleted stocks are rebounding with a vengeance," Halff said in a note. "Their panic is a testament to how soft the market has become. It is likely to grow even softer."

"You just can't fight the weight of the market right now," said Darin Newsom, senior analyst at DTN in Omaha, Nebraska. "I still think we're going to drop below $US100."

Accumulating evidence that demand for crude is falling away in developed nations has created an exodus from the oil markets. The EIA's report Wednesday showed that demand for gasoline, distillate fuel and jet fuel over the past four weeks a falling from last year's levels.

The US dollar rose against the euro, pound and yen, encouraging investors who used commodities to hedge against a weakening dollar to unwind those bets.

At 2pm EDT (0400 AEST Thursday), Hurricane Ike was about 410km west of Key West, Florida, and was moving toward the northwest at about 21km/h with top sustained winds of around 160km/h. It was expected to cross the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening to a Category Three.

Forecasters said that it could hit on Saturday morning about anywhere along the Texas coast, with the most likely spot close to Corpus Christi, where there are number of refineries.

The US Department of the Interior's Minerals Management Service said that as of Wednesday, about 95.9 per cent of oil production and about 73.1 per cent of natural gas production in the Gulf remained shuttered as Hurricane Ike approaches Texas. Oil and gas operators have had the bulk of their production shut down since they began preparing for Hurricane Gustav nearly two weeks ago.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 2.23 cents to settle at $US2.9024 a gallon, while gasoline prices gained about a penny to settle at $US2.6616 a gallon.

Natural gas for October delivery fell 14.2 cents to settle at $US7.393 per 1,000 cubic feet; the EIA is scheduled to release its weekly reading on natural gas in US storage on Thursday.



OPEC cuts output to shore up market
September 11, 2008
AFP


The OPEC oil group has announced a cut of 520,000 barrels per day to its output, citing downside risks to the oil market as prices fell below $US100 for the first time since April.

After a marathon meeting in Vienna, which finished about 3am local time (1100 AEST) on Wednesday, the president said its members had agreed to begin reducing production immediately.

"If you do your own calculations, it is a cut of 520,000 barrels per day," said OPEC president and Algeria's Energy Minister Chakib Khelil, announcing a new OPEC output quota of 28.8 million barrels per day, excluding Indonesia - which officially left OPEC on Wednesday - and Iraq.

The cut, which immediately boosted sliding oil prices, was likely to dismay consumers hoping for bigger falls.

US energy secretary Samuel Bodman had asked for producers to keep oil markets well supplied.

Oil sank below $US100 for the first time in five months in London on Tuesday when Brent North Sea crude for delivery in October dropped to $US99.04 in late European trade.

But prices rebounded in Asian trade. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for October delivery rose by 92 cents to $US104.18 a barrel while Brent North Sea crude rose 65 cents to $US101.07.

Analysts had suggested OPEC would keep its official policy unchanged but would discreetly agree to rein in production by cracking down on output by some members, mainly Saudi Arabia, who are pumping above their quota.

Khelil said he did not expect the OPEC decision to reverse the downward trend of oil prices, which peaked at $US147 a barrel in July.

"My hunch is probably the price still will be going down despite the decision that we made," he said.

"I don't think this will affect the consumers in any way because first of all, there's an oversupply. Everybody agrees on that."

The stakes for OPEC were entirely different from the last time the group met in March when prices had broken through $US100 and were on a steep upwards trajectory.

The gathering this time led to questions about what price level the cartel wanted to protect as the market came down.

Iran, Iraq and Venezuela have identified $US100 as their minimum, while analysts see Saudi Arabia as being comfortable with a figure around $US80 or $US90.

Explaining its decision on Wednesday, OPEC identified a shift in sentiment in the oil market linked to falling economic growth, a strengthening dollar, easing geopolitical tensions and greater supply.

"All the foregoing indicates a shift in market sentiment causing downside risks to the global oil market outlook," it said.

OPEC also announced that Indonesia had formalised its departure from the group after it became a net importer of crude.

"The conference regretfully accepted the wish of Indonesia to suspend its full membership in the organisation," OPEC said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Russian vice premier Igor Sechin reached out to OPEC late on Tuesday, calling for greater cooperation between the cartel and his country, the world's biggest non-OPEC oil producer.

"Cooperation with OPEC is one of the priorities of Russia," he said, according to a statement read out at the opening of a meeting of OPEC's 13 members.

In production terms, the departure of Indonesia was more than compensated for by the arrival of Angola, which produces 1.85 million barrels a day; and Ecuador, which produces 500,000.

A statement from the group said Angola would hold the OPEC presidency for a year from beginning of next year.

The departure and arrivals brings OPEC's membership to 12 nations.

Their next meeting will be held in Oran, Algeria, on December 17.
 
Its definitely an interesting one blogs, then again what part of the market is responding the way you would expect it to?

I pulled my buy order, focusing on some mid caps at the moment, ill keep on discussing it with you although :)
 
Im all out at 51.5 :( :banghead: Lookin sick, and couldnt risk taking a gamble on a oil rally tonight. Good luck all still holding-still looks promising, 2 million on the bid above 50 cents, yet only about 1.2 mill on the sell below 56.5....
 
Hmm seems i picked that one, fell below support and its looking shaky.. there must have been thousands of high 50s buyers that dumped late in the day.
 
Here's a chart. A cent or so to go lower before it breaks support. Today was on higher volume, and looks bearish, but still in it's trading range so it's anybody's guess at the moment.

vba2.gif
 
Hmmm now technically this should rally today. Oil is still sliding down and our dollar is up, but as you know-the stock market is a totally irrational beast at the best of times lol..:banghead:
 
What did I say-up 7% :banghead: Really need to start listening to myself one of these days :( I tell myself its going down but hold, I tell myself its going up and dont buy :eek:
 
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