VAU - Vault Minerals

[LostMyShirt]

Boggo - I just wanted to mention that your T/A on the chart you posted - beautiful. More proof that this drop was due to trader involvement and not investors fleeting confidence.

Really
How does it prove this?
I look forward to enlightenment.

I may be wrong - but my reasoning is that if a stock with heavy trader involvement demonstrates DOW theory prediction then it is due to the stock being traded rather than invested in. When investors, like insto's start pulling out then that's bad news, and the pattern would show abnormalities. Since consolidation RED has been traded more frequently and follows the movements of the Ords now.

You know I'm just a beginner Tech/a, but that was the conclusion I came to. I may be wrong and am in a lot of cases. Still, that doesn't stop me from at least putting the opinion out there.

StarcraftMaster - Yes I see your point. I understand the downfalls of considering a dropping SP from original range as a "bargain". My reasoning on this was that due to other drops that RED has demonstrated in the past, it always has been snapping back into it's range. Also taking into account that there is no dire situation in the company as they are close to moving into production and its financial situation, I see no reason for fleeting confidence and majour correction.

 

[tech/a]

Do you actually understand Dow Theory?

What's it got to do with RED?
Or this discussion?

It's actually following the Gold price
Not suprising

 

[LostMyShirt]

Do you actually understand Dow Theory?

What's it got to do with RED?
Or this discussion?

It's actually following the Gold price
Not suprising

I'm not a DOW theory expert, no. More of an L plater if you ask me.

I claimed that the volatility was due to more-so trader involvement rather than fleeting investor confidence.

Gold price is indeed a contributing factor as Q3 2011 hikes saw RED appreciate. Drops saw the reverse, naturally.

In RED's defence I'd say that the current value of Gold exceeds that done in feasibility study whos forcasted price exceeds the current and previous 52 week high.

Anyway, by the sounds of things I'm probably wrong. Shall ponder further.

 

[Boggo]

Do you actually understand Dow Theory?

What's it got to do with RED?
Or this discussion?

It's actually following the Gold price
Not suprising

Thanks tech/a, the visual confirmation.

(click to expand)

 

[tech/a]

Well I guess it's following ONE aspect of Dow theory
Lower highs lower lows.

For those interested
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_theory
Dow Theory

 

[LostMyShirt]

Well I guess it's following ONE aspect of Dow theory
Lower highs lower lows.

For those interested
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_theory
Dow Theory

I'd say most people know what DOW theory is. I went and threw in the term "DOW theory" when I probably just should have thrown in "technical pattern" or something, I don't know. Terminology bad.

Regarding the claim I made, is there anything about that in which you wish to comment? Is there any reason to think LT investor confidence is fleeting?

 

[tech/a]

I'd say most people know what DOW theory is. I went and threw in the term "DOW theory" when I probably just should have thrown in "technical pattern" or something, I don't know. Terminology bad.

Regarding the claim I made, is there anything about that in which you wish to comment? Is there any reason to think LT investor confidence is fleeting?

At what point do you believe LT investors would leave RED?
Longterm investors may or may not remain longterm due to any number of reasons.
I'm yet to see a course of trades identifying investor or trader type involved in a trade.

Frankly I saw the comment as baseless.

 

[LostMyShirt]

At what point do you believe LT investors would leave RED?
Longterm investors may or may not remain longterm due to any number of reasons.
I'm yet to see a course of trades identifying investor or trader type involved in a trade.

Frankly I saw the comment as baseless.

Haha Well fair enough.

Rather than analyzing trade by trade and coming up with the theory; I had deduced that because consolidation exposed the stock, and volatility increased and further followed the movements of the ASX, more active trades are taking place. In fact, when you explained that the share price moved closer to that of the Gold price, the deduction made more sense since these by the minute indications were what, in my belief, traders follow.

That is all. Nothing overly complicated, just a simple deduction.

 

[tech/a]

I would argue that many longterm gold investors have closed their positions.

Evidently one longterm holder of RED has finished selling his holdings in RED.

Mathews

Over looked conveniently I think!

 

[LostMyShirt]

I would argue that many longterm gold investors have closed their positions.

Evidently one longterm holder of RED has finished selling his holdings in RED.

Mathews

Over looked conveniently I think!

Matthews has been selling out for quite a while now, first I took notice of it was through an Announcement during Q3 2011. Petra on the other hand upgraded its target.

When you say "finished" does that mean Matthews no longer listed as a substantial holder? I have not looked at the list as of late.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Doesn't really explain where the sp is and even with the POG as it and management being slack. The sp was well above this before insto getting in at 17c. Other than the obvious it doesn't justify it to where it is.

Risk risk risk justifies it....

So far RED is yet to prove it can do anything without significant delays and problems. Once it does it will surely be boosted in sp, but until then there's too much risk.

RED's margin is what, $800/oz? There are MSM people who are saying gold is now in a downtrend/bear market, etc. All idiots of course, but that doesn't change much.

Gold needs to reconquer good technicals and RED needs to show production, then it will go to $2 and much higher IMO. This is the fundamental analysis.


Technically, I will say that apart from slightly higher overall trading volumes, I would describe them as sporadic more than anything. Apart from that, technically it does not look good to me, but I defer to others due to my lack of experience here.

I think the direction of RED in the short-term will be determined by the longevity or short-liveliness (thats a word right?) of the current gold rally. I do not think there will be any noteworthy news for at least a month.


I am still watching this by the day, there will be a time in 2012 when it will be a stellar buy. Unless they screw up with production of course...

When you say "finished" does that mean Matthews no longer listed as a substantial holder? I have not looked at the list as of late.

I believe that's correct.

 

[LostMyShirt]

Risk risk risk justifies it....

So far RED is yet to prove it can do anything without significant delays and problems. Once it does it will surely be boosted in sp, but until then there's too much risk.

RED's margin is what, $800/oz? There are MSM people who are saying gold is now in a downtrend/bear market, etc. All idiots of course, but that doesn't change much.

Gold needs to reconquer good technicals and RED needs to show production, then it will go to $2 and much higher IMO. This is the fundamental analysis.


Technically, I will say that apart from slightly higher overall trading volumes, I would describe them as sporadic more than anything. Apart from that, technically it does not look good to me, but I defer to others due to my lack of experience here.

I think the direction of RED in the short-term will be determined by the longevity or short-liveliness (thats a word right?) of the current gold rally. I do not think there will be any noteworthy news for at least a month.


I am still watching this by the day, there will be a time in 2012 when it will be a stellar buy. Unless they screw up with production of course...



I believe that's correct.

Righto - so Matthews is out. could be for any number of reasons but I doubt it is the fundamentals.

With RED's delays, I do admit they are extremely frustrating. I was hoping to head into the new year with a gold bar (pour) at the very least. I am optimistic though. I didn't think they wouldnt run into any issues setting up their mine for the first time and I suppose a slight delay or two should be expected. The real majour delay was the rain all that time back that flooded the pit and since then it was uptrending until the drop off the peak.



Yeah, there are many risks, but I think those risks will be undone in time. They got the Gold, they got the machine and they got the money. Unless they find out it's fools gold or something, I don't see anyone getting bitten in the medium to long term. Short term? I don't know.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

The gold rally continues, touching $1600 now. Good leads from US markets, so RED should continue up for now I think.

Another matter I've been curious about, when is the next rain season and what makes you guys think the mine won't get flooded again this year?

 

[Chasero]

Another matter I've been curious about, when is the next rain season and what makes you guys think the mine won't get flooded again this year?

Curious about that as well.

Isn't medusa mining or some other big mine near RED as well and their mines didn't get flooded while RED's mines did?

Curious..

 

[fastbuck1]

Curious about that as well.

Isn't medusa mining or some other big mine near RED as well and their mines didn't get flooded while RED's mines did?

Curious..

red was draining the pit during record rain fall , they now have an empty pit ,i beleive some kind of aquafire releif system was also drilled into the pit, red also has metioned that wet weather won't be a problem once in production....trucks are 6x6 ect...

 

[beatle]

Some very interesting posts, and actually the gloomed worked in my favour - it assisted to push the price of RED down way below where I could ever have imagined, thus I decided rather than post to put a more balanced view of the true situation I took advantage and kept silent and bought more shares, lol!

Thanks guys for all the negativity, it looks good in my portfolio of RED which are ready for the rebound. If you want to push it down to the $1.40's again just let me know, I will gobble up some more!

As for the pit, Fastbuck is correct, the pit has been full of water soon after the old mine was finished in 1989! Whilst there was a lot of rain and water continuing to pour into the pit during the wet season this last year, the pit is effectively now removed of water to the extent that RED want to have it. Their pumping capacity is considerable if there happened to be a requirement to empty the pit, the only issue being the extent of water that can be put into the river system at any time.

Of course there has been a lot of concern about the gold production that is way behind, due to material handling issues that are being worked on at the moment. I understand that the transfer points are almost done and once that happens the first cyanide will be put in the tanks. At the moment the pulp densities are at operating levels, of around 35% in 5of the 6 tanks, they are just waiting for the front end changes to be completed.

And Chasero, there is nothing curious about MML not having a flooded pit - its actually due to the fact that they have an underground operation and not an open pit, lol!

And I'm expecting that Matthews liquidation is just about done now as well, great timing as he can't influence the market so easily with just a few million shares (perhaps less now!) left in his kitty. Whatever reason Matthews has been sold, its clearly nothing related to his understanding of the fundamentals of Siana, it probably relates to his own investing strategy re gold equities or similar.

Good luck all RED holders.

 

[Chasero]

S

And Chasero, there is nothing curious about MML not having a flooded pit - its actually due to the fact that they have an underground operation and not an open pit, lol!

What are the advantages of having an open pit?

The open pit in tropical weather has delayed the first gold pour by what 7 months now?

Is it cheaper to produce gold this way? Or will it take longer?

 

[jancha]

Beatle i dont think you should be thanking the guys on this thread for REDs fall in share price. You should be thanking REDs management on the sp slump.
Did RED give a time frame in how long it would take to iron out this so called minor delay in production?
Gold was up 2.5% today and so was most other gold stocks except for RED. Say no more.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

What are the advantages of having an open pit?

The open pit in tropical weather has delayed the first gold pour by what 7 months now?

Is it cheaper to produce gold this way? Or will it take longer?

I don't think RED had much of a choice, as the mine was already an open pit.

Anyway, pretty embarrassing performance today, being down on a day like this.

 

[tech/a]

Beatle i dont think you should be thanking the guys on this thread for REDs fall in share price. You should be thanking REDs management on the sp slump.
Did RED give a time frame in how long it would take to iron out this so called minor delay in production?
Gold was up 2.5% today and so was most other gold stocks except for RED. Say no more.

I think he should be considering what the market is telling him.
Not pig headedly insisting that he is the only " enlightened " investor in RED.
Both can be very costly.