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VAU - Vault Minerals

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40 cents was the price at the time of the stagnant trend, as well as testing bottom frequently - now worth almost 90 cents.
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Ill bet there are clear technical buy signals.

As For RED.
I'm opting for the Blue option.

Red 11.gif

Thats right $1.20
 
tech/a said:
Ill bet there are clear technical buy signals.

As For RED.
I'm opting for the Blue option.

View attachment 45710

Thats right $1.20
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Possibely. dpends what you consider a "buy signal".

As for your T/A on RED - it's valid I suppose. T/A is an art, not science. It may or may not hit that target, but in the face of the fundamentals, that is a price that doesn't make sense. Many contributing factors would have to set in in order for that price to hold. However there are contributing factors to suggest a price of 1.20 will be unrealistic. Heck, I say 1.50 resistance will hold out yet another test. $1.20 based on a single analysis ignoring all other factors makes sense only to the analysis, and not the reality of the matter.
 
Quick question, if the battle between Iran and US heats up, what would happen to the price of gold?

We all know what happened to the POO last night :eek:
 
LostMyShirt said:
Possibely. dpends what you consider a "buy signal".

As for your T/A on RED - it's valid I suppose. T/A is an art, not science. It may or may not hit that target, but in the face of the fundamentals, that is a price that doesn't make sense. Many contributing factors would have to set in in order for that price to hold. However there are contributing factors to suggest a price of 1.20 will be unrealistic. Heck, I say 1.50 resistance will hold out yet another test. $1.20 based on a single analysis ignoring all other factors makes sense only to the analysis, and not the reality of the matter.
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The problem with the plant is that the marerial is blocking up on the sharp bends (I assume) so some of the belt structure will need to be redisigned and moved to provide a suitable curve to create laminer flow of the product.
In order to do this some of the structure will need to be removed altered (to make a larger curve) and then replaced.
Now depending on the difficulty and weather conditions (now the wet season) will controll how long that this will take.
If it can be done in short period of time I doubt if we will see sub $1.50 but if it takes 8 weeks or more because of the weather RED could possibly see $1.20 with a few ups and downs on the chart.
I recently bought a parcel $1.50 and sold(stopped out) at $1.60 when it hit $1.62 then dropped to $1.60.
At this stage im on the sideline but if I do rebuy it will be with a close stop to protect my capitol.
I too have been stung by not using a stop and now I will always set up a trade with a $400 risk and when that trade is up $400 I will double my holding and bring the stop to $0.00(on the first parcel) so that my risk is still only $400 then with this in place let it run while increasing my stop accordingly (this way I protect my capitol and lock in profits).
My :2twocents
I dont hold ATM
 
Dougs Antiques said:
The problem with the plant is that the marerial is blocking up on the sharp bends (I assume) so some of the belt structure will need to be redisigned and moved to provide a suitable curve to create laminer flow of the product.
In order to do this some of the structure will need to be removed altered (to make a larger curve) and then replaced.
Now depending on the difficulty and weather conditions (now the wet season) will controll how long that this will take.
If it can be done in short period of time I doubt if we will see sub $1.50 but if it takes 8 weeks or more because of the weather RED could possibly see $1.20 with a few ups and downs on the chart.
I recently bought a parcel $1.50 and sold(stopped out) at $1.60 when it hit $1.62 then dropped to $1.60.
At this stage im on the sideline but if I do rebuy it will be with a close stop to protect my capitol.
I too have been stung by not using a stop and now I will always set up a trade with a $400 risk and when that trade is up $400 I will double my holding and bring the stop to $0.00(on the first parcel) so that my risk is still only $400 then with this in place let it run while increasing my stop accordingly (this way I protect my capitol and lock in profits).
My :2twocents
I dont hold ATM
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G'day Dougie,

seems you know quite a bit about the mining machinery - top stuff man :)

Weather conditions seems to be the only factor that is relevant as opposed to trivial situations or logistical problems.

I will say that weather is the least of my concerns, though. Keeping in mind that pit was flooded without contingency, now alternate flow mechanisms are put in place.

If what you say does happen per the 8 week length of time, then yes we may see yet another drop. However this drop may very well be the retailer and not the insto selling out. This is a matter of who is all the more patient.

Beyond all the trivialities, I will no longer hold concern when the machine is done. At this time it is indeed a risk, but not a risk of total loss - more-so a risk of lengthened time and locking away funds that may go to better use elsewhere.

Luckily for me, I am not all in for RED - diversification is beautiful, but a bastard when you are sunk negative on all stocks due to the downward trend the ASX is showing. Luckily again, the negativity is minimal and stops are a furlong away.

Here is a quote from the last ann;

The crusher, apron feeder, conveyors, SAG mill, cyclone and gravity concentrator equipment choice and respective commissioning phases have met or exceeded expectations; however, the discontinuous flow of material through two transfer points requires further minor engineering. The engineering modifications, which are primarily geometry changes to the flow presentation, are expected to be of negligible cost.

When I read this I see logistical issues and not dire eye popping concerns. However that is only my opinion. On that note, the minimal cost in bringing out the engi's does not seem to have the MGMT sweating over their balance sheet.

I can only go by the information provided and at this time I do not see any cause for alarm. I am sure we have all been in the situation when a decent stock at a decent buy takes a dip due to market flow only to find panic selling out and recovery trumping losses well into the green. Well, I believe this to be one of those situations. If news of pour is the only thing keeping the SP stagnant, then panic for minor challenges is just unreasonable, which leads me to believe LT investors are still in the game.

T/A may win the battle, but Fundi's surely will win the war.
 
tech/a said:
Ill bet there are clear technical buy signals.

As For RED.
I'm opting for the Blue option.

View attachment 45710

Thats right $1.20
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Anythings possible but unless something is seriously wrong with RED i'd be fairly confident that at its $1.58sp it would hit $1.90 before ever dropping to $1.20.
And if you had to stake your reputation on it which would you truely choose Tech?
 
LostMyShirt said:
G'day Dougie,

seems you know quite a bit about the mining machinery - top stuff man :)
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LOLZ I know nothing about mines, but what I do understand is laminer flow, Ive been involved in making cars go FAST....in partiticular NITROUS OXIDE and laminer flow is very important so it isnt to lean off (due to lack of fuel) so in this instance sweeping bends must be used in place of tight bends for the same reasons that RED needs to restructure certain aspects to ensure that slow bends dont impede the following fuel.
I refuse to follow a stock down...I will get out and rebuy when I feel there is an upside according to the charts until fundementals take over.
:2twocents
 
To be honest I would take a trade at this point.
But if you bought the low of this current move with a stop at the bottom of the spike
that would be a valid albeit low probability trade---technically.
 
tech/a said:
To be honest I would take a trade at this point.
But if you bought the low of this current move with a stop at the bottom of the spike
that would be a valid albeit low probability trade---technically.
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If it breaks below $1.50 at this stage just watch all of the conditional stops get opened up IMO
:2twocents
 
jancha said:
Lack of demand for RED has to have a REASON as in the past it has had support and followed the pog so why not now?
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Fundamental: Risk of further problems with mine
Technicals: Don't scream buy

1.50 could be the bottom or very close - but that in itself is speculation at this stage.

I can understand drops at least when gold or market is dropping, but drops when both of the former rise is not a bullish sign. You can see from the charts that volume usually comes from downward momentum not upward.

I just cannot buy this stock right now, there is no reason to. Yes it could turn around quickly - but once again that is pure speculation which is no way to make money short term.


Long term is another story, but alas I digress.


Chasero said:
Quick question, if the battle between Iran and US heats up, what would happen to the price of gold?
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Up is my guess, but who knows. If you think RED's sp is manipulated then you ain't seen nothing yet. Nothing is more manipulated in the world than gold.


Crap all volume today and no major activity.
 
During this down phase Red has attracted Franklyn Templeton to its books with a 5% stake,looks to me like the smart money has been absorbing stock over this period.It will be very interesting to see where we head when steady state production is reached.
 
mardo said:
During this down phase Red has attracted Franklyn Templeton to its books with a 5% stake,looks to me like the smart money has been absorbing stock over this period.It will be very interesting to see where we head when steady state production is reached.
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Franklin Templeton only buy things that go up?
 
G'Day All,
filter the funds by gold, and you find the gold fund has got a 20% return for the last 10 years & 7% return since 1969.

As for me , i sold half my red @ 1.90 bt some again at $1.50, will wait out.
Note another miner in similar circumstances is NMG (meant to pour in Sep 11) & still waiting. I have bt @ average of .50 and waiting, similar again is MCO, troubles in March 11 and still have not recovered 9 months on. Another stock to start up soon? is BDR in June. RED has made me cautious on this one too. So I guess getting a mine start is harder than us lay-people think...
Cheers
 
Some of you folks are a bit hard on Beatle methinks. He is putting his money where his mouth is it seems. His posts are matter of fact to my reading. Risk/reward ratios are a personal choice. No guts no glory.
IMHO RED has very great "sovereign risk" (does that that term includes Muslim terrorists? I will assume so) as well as physical isolation and extreme weather. So its risky. Risk deters people.
No extra gold is mined by management making "announcements". You guys just want to be entertained.
Once again IMHO once RED is banking money, then "charting" ,(and personal hopes and aspirations), will be overwhelmed by P/E. If the figures provided are correct then those earnings should be quite strong quite soon. My "back of an envelope" calculations on the known figures have the sp at $5 or at least a big dividend
 
filter the funds by gold, and you find the gold fund has got a 20% return for the last 10 years & 7% return since 1969.
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Granted but a 16% loss in the past year!
 
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