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VAU - Vault Minerals

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fastbuck1 said:
quote of what i posted on another forum today "this is a buying oppotunity, surely no one thought the plant would be bolted together then hit the on button and away it goe's???" todays sell of was a combination of the ann and a drop below $1600 gold price....buy the oppotunity......
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Yes, I expected startup with no issues. I also expected gold production when stated. And I also expected that there would be no further weather incidents. Call me hopeful and stupid. I would.

Now I see what is happening, not looking good. Still holding some and regretting it. Management by giving us these 2 releases are trying to say that they are being proactive when it appears that they are actually being reactive.
It is far more important to produce that first gold than to put it off indefinitely. This project needs it pretty badly.

Good luck and i hope to be proven wrong, but I guess on the up side is that management is now communicating a little better, but you know why, not because there has been a change in style !
 
Dougs Antiques said:
I still think that there will be a better buying oportunity below todays $1.64 I will be waiting for sub $1.60 actually mid $1.50's
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What a day for me...I sold another holding to buy RED when i saw it pop down to $1.47, well I thought I had sold the other holding @10:13AM sydney time.
My live trading platform had server issues so the sell didnt happen :banghead:
I immeadiatly rang my trading platform provider (who I wont name) and place a sell and a buy of RED @$1.50 at 10:20 AM.
Still it looks like no orders have been processed althought they told me after market close that my sell went through @ 10:20 AM but the buy of RED hasnt, but it will more than likely be honoured at $1.50 even if they need to pick up the difference on tomorrows open.
I spent quite a long time on the phone today trying to sort out this mess but I will be happy as long as my phone order at 10:20 AM is honoured.
What a comedy of events. :eek:

EDIT:this may have been the contributing factor of todays fall:

DJ MARKET TALK: Red 5 Whacked Again; Gold Slides


0050 GMT [Dow Jones] Investors clearly riled by postponement by Red 5 (RED.AU) of the first pour of gold at its Siana mine in the Philippines, marking shares down a further 11 cents or 6.7% to A$1.53 to be down 15% from Friday's close. Red 5 said Wednesday it plans minor engineering modifications to the plant after further problems emerged during plant commissioning and says it expects the costs to be "negligible." Investors have been more than patient with first pour of what is unhedged gold for Red 5 now at least a year behind schedule, and with spot gold sharply lower from year's high above US$1,900 foregoing returns on expected wide margins, which now have tightened somewhat. Spot gold loses US$1.70 from late New York, last bid US$1,554.60/oz, extending a decline after slumping from above US$1,590 on Wednesday. (ray.brindal@dowjones.com)


Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140; MarketTalk@dowjones.com
 
tech/a said:
Boggo
I'm thinking ABC correction ( for starters ) $1.50
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Boggo said:
Yes, likely to correct to around 1.44.
Really needs to be back above 2.10 before the possibility of sub 1.50 "C" is ruled out.
I have 6c at risk if my stop gets hit.
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The reading of the tea leaves has overcome the the poggy factor by the looks of it.
I did think there was going to be be a bit of a bounce off the 'Min Wave C' but that got taken out convincingly and today we got to within two cents of the original prediction of $1.44 https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8971&p=676819&viewfull=1#post676819

Where to from here ?
Not for the faint hearted at the moment until the required reversal confirmation triggers are hit.

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boggo - well done take a bow.

beatle - regarding the ann. on 28/12 - do you think they would have known about this before Christmas and were hanging back?

The plastic like clay was mentioned in earlier ann. about their not continuing with one of the drill extensions to the pit...do you read the geology around is full of this stuff?? My thoughts wander over to KRM who have been plagued by clay, so hopeful that RED won't have too much


Happy New Year all & just remember even with POG down to $1450, RED's NPV is still worth 3 bucks.
 
mgm1a said:
boggo - well done take a bow.

beatle - regarding the ann. on 28/12 - do you think they would have known about this before Christmas and were hanging back?

The plastic like clay was mentioned in earlier ann. about their not continuing with one of the drill extensions to the pit...do you read the geology around is full of this stuff?? My thoughts wander over to KRM who have been plagued by clay, so hopeful that RED won't have too much


Happy New Year all & just remember even with POG down to $1450, RED's NPV is still worth 3 bucks.
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RED has a well defined JORC resource so they know exactly what to expect surely.
Where does all this surprise to management come from!!!? My understanding was that it was a muck heap that they fed in and that was what gave the problems, the implication being that the feed ore was completely different.
 
Greetings all, and lets hope that the new year can be considered Happy once RED get themselves sorted out!

Mgm1a, I have read the announcements many times in the past couple of days, and I have also had a chat with management. Its clear from the earlier announcement (14 Dec) that they had problems with regard to the clay content, since they referred to "...materials handling and gravity mass pull are the subject of on-going minor design and operating practice adjustments...", but they didn't put any more emphasis on it other than that statement. It seemed to be noted but glossed over as my reading of it goes!

With regard to the clay content, it has always been known that the ore was very soft, thus obtaining a clear advantage in terms of crushing/grinding/power consumptions, all of which can contribute to lower operating costs. And its good to know that they prepared for that lower crushing requirement with the impact crusher - an ideal application for it. It seems that the ore is now just sticking up at 2 transfer point and it will take a few more days to get this resolved with slght changes in those transfer points, and once resolved for the ultra-sticky low grade stockpile material which has been treated to date it should be more able to handle the ROM ore more easily.

As I mentioned in my last post, the question of throughput becomes more of the longer term question, and the jury remains open as to how close to base case production they can get - but noting that the base case didn't allow for a 1.1mtpa mill rate, it was based on lower througput rates closer to 0.8mtpa most years, ie in practice if they can achieve closer to 1.1mtpa annually it will be a very positive outcome for Siana. If they manage only to get a lower throughput rate then naturally the overall return will be lower, but presumably still much higher than base case due to the higher gold/silver price plus the level above base case throughput rate they can achieve.

Happy New Year to all RED observers/holders.
 
Hi Mr Jeff, your post went through as I was preparing mine so I didn't respond to your comment, and I would like to.

I don't disagree with you actually, that the stockpile ore was clearly there to see and they should have realised the likely impact of putting through such clayey ore. The question that we don't have the answer to is whether the ROM ore will have similar characteristics to the low grade stockpile especially at the water/ore interface in the pit-presumably the clay content is more an issue once the ore becomes wet.

The positive aspect is that the plant front end in terms of crusher and mill has been able to handle the clayey ore, its the two transfer points that need variation, according to the announcements. Thus I remain confident the process won't be affected long term, but thats now for RED to demonstrate to all of us.

Clearly this start up is disappointing though.
 
I was not in favour of granting this management team increased remuneration at this time (to be paid out of capital). My stated preference was to wait until it was at least being paid out of the dividend flow. That would IMHO been a better motivator. I do not know enough to say that more competence on management's behalf would have avoided these problems but either way I would prefer that they had been sharing the pain.
However, thank you sellers, I have made a few thousand out of trading this volatility. Isn't the market amusing. A few hundred killed by flooding not too far away from this mine causes barely a tremor, a few bits of sticky clay causes this drop. If this mine was viable at $800 per ounce why the nervousness at $1500 odd?
 
The only Red5 here in North America ia software company.

Yahoo financial quotes was slow to adjust for reverse split.

Did I hear there was a dilution with the issuance of additional shares.

in a previous post I posted an etf that is all Junior gold stocks... I wonder how RED 5 compares
 
2011 has been an utter joke for RED.

Weather hits, pour delayed from mid-year, then schedualed for Nov' - postponed to December, then years end, then who knows.

Consolidation announcement during HIGH LEVELS OF VOLATILITY and WORLD MARKET INSTABILITY.

RED Mgmt have proved time and time again that their timing is not only poor, but mis-managed. How is it that you can make Ann's time and time again at the worst possible times? Consolidation could have easily taken place after the new year - there are no new insto's that have gotten onboard RED because right after consolidation we get a gold slump! All of a sudden goldies are not looking A1 as they were percieved to be in Q3 2011.

If it is any consilation, gold shouldn't drop further than this. It SHOULDN'T, that doesn't mean it won't. I'm no sage.

RED has bottomed out. It s way under value, and the drop in price is due to trader involvement trying to snag a quickie fromt he pour- once that was off the tables, so was the money.

Patience, patience - patience spread thin like the last spec of jam on toast.

Boggo - I just wanted to mention that your T/A on the chart you posted - beautiful. More proof that this drop was due to trader involvement and not investors fleeting confidence.
 
this is on their website under News - may be a one-off or maybe something more regular and indicates at a board level their attention to shareholding movements and site visits by northern hemisphere instos

QUOTE
share market and share register reports

Red 5 traded approx. 5.5 million shares since the last report for the 23 November Board meeting, in a range $2.05 up to $2.34 post consolidation before closing at $1.78 (down 27 cents) as the gold market violently retreated (opened the period at US$1,724 per ounce, hit a high of US$1,750 per ounce and closed at US$1,576 per ounce).
The Red5 share price outperformed for most of the period but was down 13% against the XAU (down 3.7%) and HUI (down 5.2%), but strangely in-line with Philippino operators CGA and Medusa, as the delay in the gold pour was magnified by the gold price fall. Petra issued a significantly downgraded production forecast.

Shareholder movements of note were as follows:
● Trading activity initially responded the AGM dividend comment then diminished as the first gold pour date passed.
● EIM sold 100,00 shares (balance 1.55 million)
● Other notable sellers – Eau Rouge (old guard) -330,000 shares and Jose Leviste (400,00 shares). Countered by new buyers in the 500,000 plus category.
● Overall, the number of shareholders decreased by 117 to 3,970 – down for the first time in nine months. The reduction in shareholders was 90% in the 10,000 to 100,000 range (previously 100,000 to 1 million shares on a pre-consolidation basis).

Completed IR activity

● CIBC (Brian Quast-Toronto) group site visit on 5 December 2011 - Yev Ruzhitsky (Equinox New York), Charles Fawcett (Earth Resources – London), Ramon Perrez (Carrelton – Florida) and Rebecca O’Dwyer (Colonial – Sydney)
● Substantial broker and shareholder enquiry traffic as the gold pour date passed

Scheduled IR Activity
● Conference call – Evans and Partners/Caledonia on 23 December 2011
● Casimir New York conference 26/27 March 2012

First Advisors are expected to have an updated beneficial shareholder report on 21 December.

There were two Company ASX releases – Share Consolidation complete (7 December) and First Production Gold status (14 December) plus AGM statutory advices.

CG Jackson 16 December 2011
END QUOTE


beatle et al...they know when you sell out!!
 
Boggo - I just wanted to mention that your T/A on the chart you posted - beautiful. More proof that this drop was due to trader involvement and not investors fleeting confidence.

Really
How does it prove this?
I look forward to enlightenment.
 
Im in at $1.50 and as far Im concerned that is a good entry (last close $1.62).
Im running a tight stop and will take quick profits if it drops, Hopefully we can see a rise to $1.80 or more and I will be happy.
GO RED GO!!!
 
LostMyShirt said:
RED has bottomed out. It s way under value.
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That is dangerous thinking. $1100 gold is predicted in the gold thread. Could be an opportunity for those who are patient.

Overall at the moment there is just not a strong enough case for a sustained rally. It could happen sure, but I would rather sit and wait.
 
Starcraftmazter said:
That is dangerous thinking. $1100 gold is predicted in the gold thread. Could be an opportunity for those who are patient.

Overall at the moment there is just not a strong enough case for a sustained rally. It could happen sure, but I would rather sit and wait.
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IMO I dont think we will see gold @ $1000 in the near forseeable futre.
I think more like a low of possibly $1440 to $1460 with a high of $1620 to $1680.
I will provide this assumption in a chart format if anyone cares to see it.
 
Dougs Antiques said:
IMO I dont think we will see gold @ $1000 in the near forseeable futre.
I think more like a low of possibly $1440 to $1460 with a high of $1620 to $1680.
I will provide this assumption in a chart format if anyone cares to see it.
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I think $1300-$1400 is possible. There will need to be some hint of QE3 before its over $2000 IMO.
 
IMO RED is still good value at 16c or as we now know it in the $1.60 region.
At $1.50 its a bargin, if it goes below $1.50 I will be buying up.
This is only my opinion and no-one should act on my thoughts.
See what happened to PEN (nothing is ever a definate in this volatile market)
Although RED have a very bright future if the management would just start to look after its owners ,THE SHARE HOLDERS
:2twocents
 
Agree that REDs management has been slow in keeping share holders up to date with progress and not delivered on given time frames but even so with that why should REDs sp be at lower level than it was when institutes buying in at 17c $1.70?
Nothing has really changed other than the resource being upgraded and the plant being completed other than a few hiccups production shouldn't be far off.
Even with POG dropping it doesn't explain why the current price of $1.60 or 16c old sp should be justified.
Is it possible for Institutes and management to play down RED and manipulate the sp to profit from it?

Boggo Tech i see why charting has it's advantages as fundamentals here dont add up.
 
The thing about red is that management has a terrible history of giving less than stellar announcements. AND they are few and always late.

The delayed gold pour, then delayed again in november, then negative news with problems given in MID december (Why wasnt this news provided beginning of december??) on top of falling gold prices hit RED hard.

Fundamentals are there, but perception of mgmt is hitting it hard imo.

If I were invested in a gold stock, it wouldn't be in RED atm.. (currently holding NST again as of today for a quick trade with stop losses)
 
Chasero said:
The thing about red is that management has a terrible history of giving less than stellar announcements. AND they are few and always late.

The delayed gold pour, then delayed again in november, then negative news with problems given in MID december (Why wasnt this news provided beginning of december??) on top of falling gold prices hit RED hard.

Fundamentals are there, but perception of mgmt is hitting it hard imo.

If I were invested in a gold stock, it wouldn't be in RED atm.. (currently holding NST again as of today for a quick trade with stop losses)
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Doesn't really explain where the sp is and even with the POG as it and management being slack. The sp was well above this before insto getting in at 17c. Other than the obvious it doesn't justify it to where it is.
Iam still in RED and would be buying more in RED at these prices over NST at it's current price.IMHO But i can understand your frustration in getting out.
 
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