Hi Guys, I guess it is possible for BOA to have spent time with senior management as this would be the norm for any institution that is contemplating taking a fairly large stake in a company. Obviously senior management must observe the law in anything that is said, but if my experience in visiting projects is anything to go by, when one is visiting on site and discussing operations/potential, one will pick up much more than is read in a report. Simple things like body language, voice tone and eye contact can mean a heck of a lot in making an assessment. I am very happy to see the level of institutional support on the RED register. Also, we must remember one of Australia's very shrewd fund managers(Mathews Partners) is still sitting there with a very large stake. All in all, as a smaller investor I feel very comfortable with my investment in RED, despite the occasional bout of frustration with the SP and the apparent tardiness of the news flow at times. But a lot has happened over the past 12 months with a lot more to happen in the next 12 months. I still expect RED to help underwrite my eventual retirement. Beatle, wherever you are travelling, I hope you stay safe and sound. Cheers AB
VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
- Start date
Hi Anderbond, (thanks for the personal comments, I'm still away from the screen for the next few weeks - luckily otherwise I might be pulling what hair remains out, strand by strand!). I agree wholeheartedly with all your comments on RED (unfortunately also re the frustrating share price movements), and expect in a relatively short timeframe we will get word re project finance on Siana. I think that the current weakness also won't be helped by end of financial year traders/investors sorting out tax-focused trades.
I also remain very optimistic about RED, and its future outlook regardless of Mapawa outcome is almost assured based on its holding in Siana! Just that next important hurdle of finance will put the last nail in the coffin of the longer term doubters. Today is also momentous because we have the inauguration of NoyNoy that removes uncertainty for likely another 5 years with political influences, that are also important in Phils.
Of course the gold price has a lot to do with the future share price as well but we remain comfortably above the levels ever envisaged when I believed that RED was worth at least 20 cents, now we can almost double that with gold trading in its current range.
I also remain very optimistic about RED, and its future outlook regardless of Mapawa outcome is almost assured based on its holding in Siana! Just that next important hurdle of finance will put the last nail in the coffin of the longer term doubters. Today is also momentous because we have the inauguration of NoyNoy that removes uncertainty for likely another 5 years with political influences, that are also important in Phils.
Of course the gold price has a lot to do with the future share price as well but we remain comfortably above the levels ever envisaged when I believed that RED was worth at least 20 cents, now we can almost double that with gold trading in its current range.
Hi Mardo, seems strange that while BOA are building up a formidable position, the share price remains very lethargic, and investors are giving up their holdings so cheaply. I believe that BOA has helped support the price from sliding further, and its a joke as I am sure they are not buying shares on a punt!
A little birdie tells me that the finance remains some weeks away from being finalised, despite earlier thoughts it could have been completed by early July, so this might feed on the sellers minds a bit more - but remains an opportunity for the more astute believer (as is BOA) to buy it up cheaply!
On other grounds I understand that they now have 3 rigs on site at Mapawa, with a more definitive drilling program now underway to define the upper limits of mineralisation, above about 200 metres or so, while the third of the deeper holes is close to or already at its target depth of around 800 odd metres. I understand that the alteration and lithology suggests there is some likelihood for gold mineralisation, but of course until the core is assayed no one will know for sure!
RED share price is always going to strengthen/weaken with the gold price, but at the moment, with a discount of around 60% to the gold price RED remains very good value if you believe that the finance for siana will be delivered! The quarterly is now only a few weeks away at the very latest!
A little birdie tells me that the finance remains some weeks away from being finalised, despite earlier thoughts it could have been completed by early July, so this might feed on the sellers minds a bit more - but remains an opportunity for the more astute believer (as is BOA) to buy it up cheaply!
On other grounds I understand that they now have 3 rigs on site at Mapawa, with a more definitive drilling program now underway to define the upper limits of mineralisation, above about 200 metres or so, while the third of the deeper holes is close to or already at its target depth of around 800 odd metres. I understand that the alteration and lithology suggests there is some likelihood for gold mineralisation, but of course until the core is assayed no one will know for sure!
RED share price is always going to strengthen/weaken with the gold price, but at the moment, with a discount of around 60% to the gold price RED remains very good value if you believe that the finance for siana will be delivered! The quarterly is now only a few weeks away at the very latest!
Hi Guys, firstly regarding Mapawa. The report this morning is a significant announcement, in that it confirms the deeper extent of (relatively) high grade gold in porphyry and that the first hole was not a flash in the pan - it confirms gold tenor at a grade most likely to be commercial if similar grades exist in the top layers - and that is most likely based on much earlier Suricon drilling which indicated mineralised altered porphyry in a grade range of 1.5 - 2.5 g/t - it only needs to maintain a grade around 1.0 g/t Au from surface to these levels (of around 630 metres or more) to build up a large inventory of ore. I would say that a target upwards of 100 million tonnes around 1 - 1.2 g/t is possible, and if from surface would likely support a major new gold operation at Mapawa standing alone from the Siana development.
(Hole 2 does also confirm it being outside of the main mineralised zone but the fact it was drilled in a different direction (perpendicular to the earlier hole) and a distance away from that first hole is of no real consequence other than to say it has delineated a likely boundary to mineralisation in that direction (only!).
Its good to see the additional rigs on site as this will speed up drilling announcements, and in entirely different contexts gives an indication that RED management are prepared to spend much more on proving up Mapawa mineralisation, a vote of confidence in it as a separate project and also maybe a vote of confidence that management believe they can afford it since they must also expect the project finance for Siana soon!
As to why the delay for Siana finance, I am not close to the action (nor is anyone outside of the bank I would suggest), but i have my own opinion as to why it has been delayed, but i am not overly concerned other than to say it gives some more opportunity for the less confident to drop shares cheaply to those bolder investors. I am becoming more confident as the days go by though, I have heard no problems from my sources to suggest that its just one of the trials going forward, but should still be bedded down in the early part of August - in the meantime RED continues to use its own funds to develop the Siana gold project, and I understand that soon we will be getting those picture updates on the website that will assist our confidence that the work is getting done in a material sense!
Just remember though, once finance is secured I think RED share price will not be at these levels, subject to the gold price remaining above about US$1,000 (even at that price RED is worth more than 20 cents but the market would be prone to react negatively i suggest if gold karked it altogether!).
I notice that BOA continue to be involved in some funny business with trading, and that just prior to open 8 million shares have traded pre-open, not sure what that might be but i'm sure not significant as a news item!
(Hole 2 does also confirm it being outside of the main mineralised zone but the fact it was drilled in a different direction (perpendicular to the earlier hole) and a distance away from that first hole is of no real consequence other than to say it has delineated a likely boundary to mineralisation in that direction (only!).
Its good to see the additional rigs on site as this will speed up drilling announcements, and in entirely different contexts gives an indication that RED management are prepared to spend much more on proving up Mapawa mineralisation, a vote of confidence in it as a separate project and also maybe a vote of confidence that management believe they can afford it since they must also expect the project finance for Siana soon!
As to why the delay for Siana finance, I am not close to the action (nor is anyone outside of the bank I would suggest), but i have my own opinion as to why it has been delayed, but i am not overly concerned other than to say it gives some more opportunity for the less confident to drop shares cheaply to those bolder investors. I am becoming more confident as the days go by though, I have heard no problems from my sources to suggest that its just one of the trials going forward, but should still be bedded down in the early part of August - in the meantime RED continues to use its own funds to develop the Siana gold project, and I understand that soon we will be getting those picture updates on the website that will assist our confidence that the work is getting done in a material sense!
Just remember though, once finance is secured I think RED share price will not be at these levels, subject to the gold price remaining above about US$1,000 (even at that price RED is worth more than 20 cents but the market would be prone to react negatively i suggest if gold karked it altogether!).
I notice that BOA continue to be involved in some funny business with trading, and that just prior to open 8 million shares have traded pre-open, not sure what that might be but i'm sure not significant as a news item!
Why did I suggest a target tonnage of 100 million tonnes at Mapawa?
I did a very rough calculation based on simple geometric dimensions of 600 metres (depth) x 250 metres (wide) x 250 metres breadth (pure speculation) x 2.6 t/cu m
= 97,500,000 tonnes ~ 100 million tonnes.
If we assume an average grade of 1.1 g/t Au for 100 million tonnes
= 3.5 million ozs contained Au
If we value Mapawa contained potential gold @ $30/ozs = $105 million
= 10 cps
This is the current potential target value of Mapawa based on miniscule information, but provides some early guidance. If we assume that this prospect at Mapawa has mineralisation to surface then the valuation at $30/potential oz used in this value guidance should be increased upwards.
Its just an indication of what Mapawa could be worth. What it will do if drilling continues to confirm signficant mineralisation and continuity is that RED will be a very ripe target for takeover! Majors will always have an interested whilst the total potential gold ozs of a junior are around 4.5 million (including 1 million at Siana) ozs, at such a low market cap.
I did a very rough calculation based on simple geometric dimensions of 600 metres (depth) x 250 metres (wide) x 250 metres breadth (pure speculation) x 2.6 t/cu m
= 97,500,000 tonnes ~ 100 million tonnes.
If we assume an average grade of 1.1 g/t Au for 100 million tonnes
= 3.5 million ozs contained Au
If we value Mapawa contained potential gold @ $30/ozs = $105 million
= 10 cps
This is the current potential target value of Mapawa based on miniscule information, but provides some early guidance. If we assume that this prospect at Mapawa has mineralisation to surface then the valuation at $30/potential oz used in this value guidance should be increased upwards.
Its just an indication of what Mapawa could be worth. What it will do if drilling continues to confirm signficant mineralisation and continuity is that RED will be a very ripe target for takeover! Majors will always have an interested whilst the total potential gold ozs of a junior are around 4.5 million (including 1 million at Siana) ozs, at such a low market cap.
Hi Auscan, I would hope that we will get the first news of the shallower drilling by end of this month, for just the first few holes at least - I understand that RED had the second drill onsite some weeks ago so that should have already have drilled some of those holes (I'm not aware of the size of the rig though and what its capabilities are).
I would imagine that RED will put out a brief commentary in its quarterly about the shallower drilling but have another announcement purely referring to that drilling and its initial outcomes - again, that is speculation by me. And now as RED has stated, they have got a third rig onsite which will speed up the drilling of both deeper and/or shallower drilling - perhaps the 2nd and 3rd rigs are not capable of drilling the deeper holes, that I am unaware of.
Hi Yuyu - with regard to the finance, RED did the big placement (totalling A$45 million odd gross) to assist with the funding of Siana's development, but it is to be accompanied by a US$40 million debt facility to finalise development at Siana, and that project finance is being lead managed by Deutsche Bank with another major financing group (Ashmore). All the technical due diligence of that has now been completed and they are down to the legals and associated corporate arrangements now to complete that task. Whilst nothing is over until its over, I am of a view that this finance will be bedded down in early August. (Currently all the development works is proceeding with RED cash in bank and is not holding up the development schedule to any major degree that I am aware of).
With regard to your question Yuyu re the RED beatle and me being on holidays traveling, all I can say is that you are psychic Yuyu, and IF you can pick the market like that then you will driving more than the Nissan soon!!!
GO RED!!!
I would imagine that RED will put out a brief commentary in its quarterly about the shallower drilling but have another announcement purely referring to that drilling and its initial outcomes - again, that is speculation by me. And now as RED has stated, they have got a third rig onsite which will speed up the drilling of both deeper and/or shallower drilling - perhaps the 2nd and 3rd rigs are not capable of drilling the deeper holes, that I am unaware of.
Hi Yuyu - with regard to the finance, RED did the big placement (totalling A$45 million odd gross) to assist with the funding of Siana's development, but it is to be accompanied by a US$40 million debt facility to finalise development at Siana, and that project finance is being lead managed by Deutsche Bank with another major financing group (Ashmore). All the technical due diligence of that has now been completed and they are down to the legals and associated corporate arrangements now to complete that task. Whilst nothing is over until its over, I am of a view that this finance will be bedded down in early August. (Currently all the development works is proceeding with RED cash in bank and is not holding up the development schedule to any major degree that I am aware of).
With regard to your question Yuyu re the RED beatle and me being on holidays traveling, all I can say is that you are psychic Yuyu, and IF you can pick the market like that then you will driving more than the Nissan soon!!!
GO RED!!!
RED is starting to move up, is this the final chance to get shares prior to the re-rating that is long overdue?
In my estimation Siana has a discounted value, to RED, of 36 cps based on current gold/silver price, and with cash in bank amounts to 38 cps.
Holes 1 and 3 into the deeper gold mineralised porphyry at LSY prospect Mapawa confirms that the mineralisation is likely to extend to at least 600 metres depth, and based on some possible dimensions of 250 metres e-w and n-s, is likely to delineate around 100 million tonnes at about 1.1g/t = 3.3 million ozs based on an SG of 2.5 tonnes/cubic metre (a realistic bulk density in such altered rock - note, water has an SG of 1 t/m3!!!).
Mapawa has the potential to dwarf Siana, but based on the limited drilling to date, PLUS the surface trench sampling which confirms considerable mineralisation in the +1.0 g/t up to 2.5 g/t range, thus a very conservative initial estimate of 10 cps for Mapawa is suggested.
Thus RED valuation is:
Siana 36 cps
Mapawa 10 cps
Cash 2 cps
Total 48 cps
RED is sitting on 15 cents today after indicating that finance is about 2 weeks away! Thus RED is substantially discounted, sitting at 31% of my valuation, which has got considerable upside on Mapawa results indicated!
I think its time for RED to start revving its engine - as an interesting aside I understand that RED is likely to be involved in some overseas presentations in North America at the end of this month.
Mapawa gives RED the potential to be a significant takeover play with majors, bearing in mind the potential to host more than 4 million ozs, 1 million of which is Indicated status with full bankable study completed and ready to go. AND RED has got a number of other porphyry targets within both Mapawa and SIana MPSA's yet to be explored!
Go RED, GO UP!!!
In my estimation Siana has a discounted value, to RED, of 36 cps based on current gold/silver price, and with cash in bank amounts to 38 cps.
Holes 1 and 3 into the deeper gold mineralised porphyry at LSY prospect Mapawa confirms that the mineralisation is likely to extend to at least 600 metres depth, and based on some possible dimensions of 250 metres e-w and n-s, is likely to delineate around 100 million tonnes at about 1.1g/t = 3.3 million ozs based on an SG of 2.5 tonnes/cubic metre (a realistic bulk density in such altered rock - note, water has an SG of 1 t/m3!!!).
Mapawa has the potential to dwarf Siana, but based on the limited drilling to date, PLUS the surface trench sampling which confirms considerable mineralisation in the +1.0 g/t up to 2.5 g/t range, thus a very conservative initial estimate of 10 cps for Mapawa is suggested.
Thus RED valuation is:
Siana 36 cps
Mapawa 10 cps
Cash 2 cps
Total 48 cps
RED is sitting on 15 cents today after indicating that finance is about 2 weeks away! Thus RED is substantially discounted, sitting at 31% of my valuation, which has got considerable upside on Mapawa results indicated!
I think its time for RED to start revving its engine - as an interesting aside I understand that RED is likely to be involved in some overseas presentations in North America at the end of this month.
Mapawa gives RED the potential to be a significant takeover play with majors, bearing in mind the potential to host more than 4 million ozs, 1 million of which is Indicated status with full bankable study completed and ready to go. AND RED has got a number of other porphyry targets within both Mapawa and SIana MPSA's yet to be explored!
Go RED, GO UP!!!
hi beatle - spoke to CFO, joe mobilia
BOAC are buying on behalf of others - RED don't have details on who they are, hence the anns to date
a fund manager has been buying up quite a bit recently
they are pleased with channel sampling at mapawa (pronounced ma/parwa)
he referred to this phase in siana developement as sort of boring with not much to report - he mentioned that reporting for reporting's sake doesn't help anyone - i tend to agree
he suggested i keep the faith and that not everything, timewise, is under their control
auscan also contacted him re finance - joe told him delay only from meticulous bankers
BOAC are buying on behalf of others - RED don't have details on who they are, hence the anns to date
a fund manager has been buying up quite a bit recently
they are pleased with channel sampling at mapawa (pronounced ma/parwa)
he referred to this phase in siana developement as sort of boring with not much to report - he mentioned that reporting for reporting's sake doesn't help anyone - i tend to agree
he suggested i keep the faith and that not everything, timewise, is under their control
auscan also contacted him re finance - joe told him delay only from meticulous bankers
Thanks Fatsoh, its good to know that the word is slowly leaking out that RED is ready for blast off!
I have personally got a lot more confidence as the result of the Presentation released today, particularly as it brought forward slightly the expected date of the finance, which I had been led to believe wouldn't be finalised until early August. It seems the penultimate condition precedent referred to in that Presentation is nothing difficult to finalise and its the only thing holding back the final offer of finance.
I understand that a fund manager, that has got some powerful overseas backers and is waiting to enter ONCE the finance is announced, is watching it closely - that group will only enter once it achieves certainty of finance and usually tries to secure around 5% or slightly higher of any investment stake - in the case of RED that amounts to around 49 million shares minimum! Just imagine if the fund tries to take 49 million shares in RED - that will put a floor on RED from now on I would imagine.
I have started to buy more now, and although I'm considerably overweight in RED already I can see a time soon when the demand will push the share price beyond 20 cents with no turning back, so I think this maybe the last chance to get shares before the big push upwards over the next couple of weeks.
With regard to Mapawa, since the surface sampling already confirms considerable mineralisation +1.0 g/t, I think my early value guidance of 10 cps is actually far too conservative, and will immediately rerate RED as an outstanding BUY and target for gold majors seeking a cheap entry into a gold province with secured MPSA's. Mapawa is only 1 of the porphyry prospects, with a number of others already delineated in the Siana MPSA, eg Madja, just imagine if there is more activity on those prospects, RED will become RED HOT!
I think investors need to re-evaluate RED compared to MML (which is relatively close geographically) but which has already got a low cost production profile albeit with less indicated resource ozs cf RED, noting that MML market capitalisation is 755 million - RED market cap being 146 million! That suggests the potential for RED to move TOWARDS a share price 5 times its current 15 cents, ie 75 cents once in production plus whatever Mapawa etc adds in value to RED!!! That compares to my current conservative value for RED of 48 cents if we conservatively value Mapawa at 10 cents!
I can see RED at 30 cents quite soon, particularly if the fund manager that is watching it decides to enter the market, and from then on its only way will be up as it moves closer towards production!
(MY excited view of course!).
I have personally got a lot more confidence as the result of the Presentation released today, particularly as it brought forward slightly the expected date of the finance, which I had been led to believe wouldn't be finalised until early August. It seems the penultimate condition precedent referred to in that Presentation is nothing difficult to finalise and its the only thing holding back the final offer of finance.
I understand that a fund manager, that has got some powerful overseas backers and is waiting to enter ONCE the finance is announced, is watching it closely - that group will only enter once it achieves certainty of finance and usually tries to secure around 5% or slightly higher of any investment stake - in the case of RED that amounts to around 49 million shares minimum! Just imagine if the fund tries to take 49 million shares in RED - that will put a floor on RED from now on I would imagine.
I have started to buy more now, and although I'm considerably overweight in RED already I can see a time soon when the demand will push the share price beyond 20 cents with no turning back, so I think this maybe the last chance to get shares before the big push upwards over the next couple of weeks.
With regard to Mapawa, since the surface sampling already confirms considerable mineralisation +1.0 g/t, I think my early value guidance of 10 cps is actually far too conservative, and will immediately rerate RED as an outstanding BUY and target for gold majors seeking a cheap entry into a gold province with secured MPSA's. Mapawa is only 1 of the porphyry prospects, with a number of others already delineated in the Siana MPSA, eg Madja, just imagine if there is more activity on those prospects, RED will become RED HOT!
I think investors need to re-evaluate RED compared to MML (which is relatively close geographically) but which has already got a low cost production profile albeit with less indicated resource ozs cf RED, noting that MML market capitalisation is 755 million - RED market cap being 146 million! That suggests the potential for RED to move TOWARDS a share price 5 times its current 15 cents, ie 75 cents once in production plus whatever Mapawa etc adds in value to RED!!! That compares to my current conservative value for RED of 48 cents if we conservatively value Mapawa at 10 cents!
I can see RED at 30 cents quite soon, particularly if the fund manager that is watching it decides to enter the market, and from then on its only way will be up as it moves closer towards production!
(MY excited view of course!).
Some very big special cross trades first thing this morning, totaling just over 64 million shares, presumably a friendly arrangement either between related parties (but different entities) or an agreed arrangement between parties. Since the total is just over 5% we are likely to see a substantial notice in the next week crop up explaining the share movement. I don't see it as anything other than a possible sign of things to come:
Clearly we are at a vital time for RED, with expectations of announcement of finance, the quarterly report advising the market of latest status of development at Siana, and latest drilling at Mapawa (shallow holes PLUS the additional assays from the deeper Hole 3 already with the already announced mineralised 290 metres intersection).
RED share price is firming up, I can see the price moving up in the next weeks in anticipation of good news developing - and since funds management groups are involved they won't be playing too softly once the finance is finalised if they want a significant additional stake in RED!
With Mapawa already demonstrating likely potential to host upwards of 3.3 million ozs of gold, plus Siana holding 1 million ozs of gold, RED is surely a very strong takeover target now! The Insto's involved must be aware of that possibility too, so I can see the share price moving north rather rapidly soon!
Clearly we are at a vital time for RED, with expectations of announcement of finance, the quarterly report advising the market of latest status of development at Siana, and latest drilling at Mapawa (shallow holes PLUS the additional assays from the deeper Hole 3 already with the already announced mineralised 290 metres intersection).
RED share price is firming up, I can see the price moving up in the next weeks in anticipation of good news developing - and since funds management groups are involved they won't be playing too softly once the finance is finalised if they want a significant additional stake in RED!
With Mapawa already demonstrating likely potential to host upwards of 3.3 million ozs of gold, plus Siana holding 1 million ozs of gold, RED is surely a very strong takeover target now! The Insto's involved must be aware of that possibility too, so I can see the share price moving north rather rapidly soon!
Beatle -keep up the whispers from the frontline.
I believe Ross Stanley has left the register today ..todays cross trades were 39,642,769 and 24,547,264. The Red website lists May shareholding, and one of the Ross Stanley holdings is for, coincedentally, 39,642,769 shares . So if that one has gone then probably his total.
I believe Ross Stanley has left the register today ..todays cross trades were 39,642,769 and 24,547,264. The Red website lists May shareholding, and one of the Ross Stanley holdings is for, coincedentally, 39,642,769 shares . So if that one has gone then probably his total.
Thanks Mgm1a, and an interesting observation re Ross Stanley. I guess we will know sooner than later if his substantial holding has been removed, but of course it might be just that he has rearranged his share ownership to another related entity (if it was him, but your observation of the number of shares is interesting). (I understand he was the reason for one of the new directors coming on to the board a few months ago, so it would surprise me if he has decided to leave the scene so soon after that board appointment, but of course things can change quickly too).
It was a bit of a disappointment to see the share price fall away this trading session, but with the days getting ever closer to finance announcement day I can't see the share price sitting around current levels for long.
It was a bit of a disappointment to see the share price fall away this trading session, but with the days getting ever closer to finance announcement day I can't see the share price sitting around current levels for long.
A few points to consider:
On the investment side of things:
For every seller there is a buyer. If we have just lost a substantial shareholder, then we have just gained at least one and possibly two more interested and supportive investors! I am more than happy to know that someone who has already made a good quid in RED has been able to exit without any undue pressure on the RED share price whatsoever, and that/those new investor/s now have a cost base of 15.5 cents, not something like 3 cents!
I understand that RED management are preparing a roadshow in North America just prior to the expected time for announcement of project finance. That timing is very positive as it will allow more potential overseas investors to consider RED just as the market becomes aware of full steam ahead on the finance and development side!
As I pointed out previously, there is an un-named fund manager with very strong overseas backing who is currently looking at a significant investment in RED (potentially more than 5%, ie greater than 49 million shares) SUBJECT to finance being finalised. This should increase RED share price immediately once finance is offered, provided the Fund makes that decision to go ahead!
On the project side of things:
The Siana project continues its development without being delayed whatsoever with the project finance, from RED cash reserves.
Mapawa is now being drilled with 3 rigs, and around 2 shallower holes are being drilled each week. I understand that RED intends to maintain news flow on Mapawa to report around 4 holes each report, so we should see a continuing news flow from around the end of this coming month. Mapawa has already demonstrated continuity of mineralisation and grade at deeper levels, and if shallower drilling continues to confirm that then Mapawa is likely to become a major second focus for RED and has the potential to become a huge stand-alone project, probably attracting gold majors that would not have an interest in the smaller (1 million ozs) Siana gold project.
On the valuation side of things:
Siana NPV 36 cps
Mapawa 10 cps (initial highly discounted guidance only based on rough potential of 100 million tonnes gold project)
Cash 2 cps
Total 48 cps
This valuation is a theoretical value which does not take into account trading momentum BUT suggests the price to which RED share price should gravitate towards - except if Mapawa mineralisation moves closer to confirming a 100 million tonne resource at 1.1 g/t Au, then the value will increase as technical information for Mapawa becomes known.
Relative valuation to MML, a company with similar landholdings in Mindanao located less than 200 kms from Siana/Mapawa, but with an increasing gold production record suggests RED could move TOWARDS a market capitalisation around $700 odd million, ie a share price moving TOWARDS 5 x current share price, ie around 70 cps
On the investment side of things:
For every seller there is a buyer. If we have just lost a substantial shareholder, then we have just gained at least one and possibly two more interested and supportive investors! I am more than happy to know that someone who has already made a good quid in RED has been able to exit without any undue pressure on the RED share price whatsoever, and that/those new investor/s now have a cost base of 15.5 cents, not something like 3 cents!
I understand that RED management are preparing a roadshow in North America just prior to the expected time for announcement of project finance. That timing is very positive as it will allow more potential overseas investors to consider RED just as the market becomes aware of full steam ahead on the finance and development side!
As I pointed out previously, there is an un-named fund manager with very strong overseas backing who is currently looking at a significant investment in RED (potentially more than 5%, ie greater than 49 million shares) SUBJECT to finance being finalised. This should increase RED share price immediately once finance is offered, provided the Fund makes that decision to go ahead!
On the project side of things:
The Siana project continues its development without being delayed whatsoever with the project finance, from RED cash reserves.
Mapawa is now being drilled with 3 rigs, and around 2 shallower holes are being drilled each week. I understand that RED intends to maintain news flow on Mapawa to report around 4 holes each report, so we should see a continuing news flow from around the end of this coming month. Mapawa has already demonstrated continuity of mineralisation and grade at deeper levels, and if shallower drilling continues to confirm that then Mapawa is likely to become a major second focus for RED and has the potential to become a huge stand-alone project, probably attracting gold majors that would not have an interest in the smaller (1 million ozs) Siana gold project.
On the valuation side of things:
Siana NPV 36 cps
Mapawa 10 cps (initial highly discounted guidance only based on rough potential of 100 million tonnes gold project)
Cash 2 cps
Total 48 cps
This valuation is a theoretical value which does not take into account trading momentum BUT suggests the price to which RED share price should gravitate towards - except if Mapawa mineralisation moves closer to confirming a 100 million tonne resource at 1.1 g/t Au, then the value will increase as technical information for Mapawa becomes known.
Relative valuation to MML, a company with similar landholdings in Mindanao located less than 200 kms from Siana/Mapawa, but with an increasing gold production record suggests RED could move TOWARDS a market capitalisation around $700 odd million, ie a share price moving TOWARDS 5 x current share price, ie around 70 cps
Beatle i have had a very positive outlook on red , however i now have concerns regarding the 64mil crossover that has taken place so close to the pending ann regarding finance, the question needs to be answered why someone {speculation its Ross Stanley}would sell such a large holding when were only weeks away hopefully a positive ann that has most of us thinking this will be the catalyst to .30+ , sure there was a buyer at the other end of the sale, im just starting to think theres a rat trapped in the sewer pipe.....regards ...fastbuck