Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Beatle a PS. Sorry I forgot to mention that I have not yet read Cadel Evan's book but will get a copy soon. I actually ride around 300 to 400 klms per week and have seriously considered riding in the Phils but having seen the driving on relatively narrow roads have resisted the thought. Subic Bay area would be ok, a lot of training goes on there I noticed. Cadel is currently competing in the Giro D'Italia and is a real chance. AB
 
You're obviously a lot fitter (and younger) than I Anderbond, but having seen the traffic and maniacs on the road in phils I think you should reconsider, lol!

The gold price has gone through a rough patch the last hour, down US$25!, lets hope its just an over-reaction. The thing I find hard to believe is that RED didn't gat anywhere near its latest highs with the gold price yet its now had the positives of acquiring Merrills' interest AND a positive hole#1 at Mapawa since its recent high of 19.5cents. Lets hope it doesn't retrace too far back if the gold price goes through a bit of a breather!
 
My apologies too Anderbond, I overlooked your earlier question re senior RED management being seen in Sydney Deutsche Bank office. I got that news from a reliable source, but actually its to be expected as we know from from the quarterly that they're in the midst of the financing and presumably that requires continuous meetings - I understand those at the bank were CJ and GE.

I'm actually a bit disappointed we didn't get hole#2 this week but I guess they're too busy at the moment with the finance - which might also be a positive sign (or am I seeing the glass half full, lol?).
 
Hi Beatle, I think you must have a remarkable network of friends if they can pick up on GE & CJ visiting Credit Suisse in Sydney!(lol). I couldn't agree more re the SP. It has not responded to the higher gold price not the most recent announcements in the way one might expect. It can only be selling pressure holding it back, or perhaps the "bots" are busy at work at the moment? I watched an interview with Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management who again reiterated in his opinion that it is only a matter of time for the small producers and emerging producers to really take off. By the way, I notice Sprott is reducing or selling out of its MML position. Interesting? Maybe they figure the MML SP has run so hard it is time to take profits and reinvest elsewhere. Would be fascinating if they bobbed up in RED(lol). On the cycling side, I see Cadel sits second on GC in the Giro. Go RED, Go Cadel! AB
 
HI Alderbond - again an interesting post from you (I get an update on the Giro D'Italia etc at the same time, and yes lets hope Cadel does us proud just like F1 and M Webber, but I don't really follow that other than barrack for the Aussie!).

Of course you meant Deutsche Bank? Mining and finance really are a small world, and it only takes one sighting and the whole world gets informed - if they know about ASF Lol!

As for Sprott Asset Management maybe looking to extend beyond MML into other smaller gold producers/developers etc. I don't know that investment group but would assume they would be aware of RED due to it being only a couple of humdred k's up the road from MML. I assume you are in GD's company still?
 
Hi Beatle, Yes I put the wrong bank name in. Ha ha, I actually find that amazing as I know all these names well. Sprott Asset Management is a Canadian based fund management company that runs a number of funds including one that specialises in the physical gold space. They also cover gold equities and the founder Eric Sprott is very highly regarded for his expertise. One of the things that is interesting to me is that not many of the Australian fund managers seem to be very interested in gold, either physical or equities based. Obviously NCM would be the one most would look towards (or maybe LGL) but according to Charlie Aitken of SCE, the NCM register is more slanted to off shore investors. There are of course a few specialist gold funds available but overall the level of interest by Australian domiciled managers seems cursory. Perhaps they are much more happy with the iron ore and coal producers given the ongoing demand for these commodities. I have recently seen some interesting charts showing the outperformance of gold compared to a range of other things, such as currencies, equities, property and these give me great heart as to where RED will eventually go. The cycle seems to be that the physical price of gold moves first, followed by the SP of the big producers, and then followed by the smaller producers then the explorers. The greatest leverage lies with the smaller producers and explorers (obviously the greatest risk lies here too). Although some are saying the gold price is already in a "bubble", if so it is probable that it is very early days yet. We should not forget that the inflation adjusted price of gold from the seventies is something along the lines of US$2400. I see that some of the institutions on the RED register are steadily building their stake, so this is further evidence of the sensational potential of RED. It is only a matter of time imo, and the current weakness will not last much longer. AB
 
Thanks for the information on Sprott Asset Management, lets hope they are watching how things develop for RED.

Today was another terrible day for RED and for the rest of the market, and its getting to the stage now of just hoping that calm eventually returns to the market without too much damage to the gold price. IMO RED future share price is guaranteed to outperform so long as they can get the project finance and with a reasonable gold price. I have a feeling that the current RED weakness is all about the general selling pressure than anything that might be related to RED alone, lets hope so - that second hole at Mapawa must be close to having its assays reported subject to it being worth reporting at all!

(BTW, I have been suspended for life from HC as I mentioned previously, despite the claim that I have more than one account is false - posters I believe to be on the SIH threads accused me of that to get rid of me, as I was a fly in their ointment, lol! - someone else via this website ASF privately emailed to me that they had become aware of my plight through one of their mates who apparently is a moderator on HC, and also mentioned that many of those moderators on HC are corrupted!).
 
Hi Beatle, yes I asked the question on HC if you were still suspended and someone responded about two log ins or something like that. I have commented that it seemed like a hanging judge trial (or kangaroo court lol). But enough said about HC.
Yesterday I took the opportunity to top up with another batch @ 13c, then lo today they are down further. A friend who already has a few has decided to double his holding today hoping to pick them up @ 11c. I imagine there are others out there doing the same, although it seems that BOAC is in there building their stake. Like you I am not worried about the SP eventually moving up, it is just a matter of time. I have been wondering whether the current winds of negative sentiment might have an impact on the financing package but on reflection have concluded that things would have to get a lot worse before this was likely. Gold price was down a little but again this looks to be nothing to worry about. There are some that believe that gold is a risky asset but I think this group is probably now in the minority as the gold price has held well despite the recent days carnage in equities markets everywhere. I see the OZ market is down around 13% from its April peak at lunchtime today (Fri) so in effect that is a healthy correction. The A$ has taken a pasting, but this is partly to do with its status as a "risky" currency and partly to do with worries about a Chinese slowdown (bulk commodities) but most of all to do with the Krudd RSPT! In one announcement Krudd has succeeded in making Australia an unattractive destination for foreign capital.
So out of the country it goes with a resultant impact in resource stocks. But I won't get too political, it is not worth space, time or thought except to note that we should concentrate on stocks that are unaffected by the tax such as RED. Beatle, given the Phils election outcome, IYO do you think that there could be any concerns weighing on stocks like RED? I have thought this through and given they are fully permitted, unlikely I suppose, but could the tax regime there change? AB
 
Re: RED - Red 5 Limited Dilution

Ordinary Fully Paid Shares - 659,288,043
Options (unlisted various exercise prices and expiry dates) - 19,900,000
 
Hi Anderbond, sorry for my delayed reply, I have been caught up on a lot of other business lately.

With regard to the Philippine elections, from my understanding the election of NoyNoy is very good for business certainty. The reason being that he was the favoured candidate, but unlike in past elections where the President had been elected on reasonably close results, NoyNoy has had the majority of backing from the people in this election, thus there is no other candidate (and their following) likely to “stir the pot” on any particular issues. He effectively has got the mandate from the people to pursue his policies and his policies for business are seen to be positive.

KRudd has now brought home the fact to us all that its probably better to invest in ASX listed mining companies with projects offshore - those companies are not going to be affected by the super profits tax and the uncertainty element surrounding it. RED should therefore benefit from super tax implementation, and I’m sure in particular offshore investors will see that strategy beneficial as the furore over the tax increases in media, particularly around Aussie election time.

At least the gold price has now started to move up a bit, and that continues to suggest RED valuation on Siana around 35 cps.

I would say that RED having not put out the #2 drillhole for Mapawa doesn’t consider it to be market sensitive, thus unlikely to be a world beater, but then as I have explained previously that it was clearly drilled peripheral to the core of the mineralization and that was probably confirmed with the increase in sulphides in the hole, which is of the type typical of zonation of porphyry alteration common in these deposits. Thus if #2 was put out it probably would not have been such an exciting hole from a mineralization point of view, but in fact only goes to substantiate the typical pattern derived in thus style of mineralization. Thus its probably a positive in the overall situation of Mapawa. #3 is clearly the biggy to establish the potential extent of mineralization at depth, but even that is not necessarily implying a dud project if it doesn’t come up with the goods as it could still be missing the heart of the real mineralization, although it would imply the deposit tonnage is lesser than to be hoped for.

Its good to see Bank of America topping up, I guess the more informed institutional investor is now just picking up stock as it desires with the occasional weakness in the general market.

If RED announces debt funding through Deutsche Bank in the next few weeks (and that’s about the original timeframe that we should be expecting the announcement) then RED will become RED_HOT in my view! It would be good timing with the gold price as it is.

(I'm not sure what Badger7's point is, if it is a reference to the previous shares on issue prior to this latest placement or what?).
 
had a chat with RED 5 office a week or so ago ..

#2 will be included with #3 report (#3 still a few weeks off from completion) since the #2 results were not price sensitive and combined with #3 would provide a more accurate summary of the intial exploration. Goes with your logic beatle.

Finance supposedly looking good. Fixed costs are below initial estimated costs in most cases so they were confident of no glitches in approval. Mid June was the target for this.

Re Mapawa, they are seeking further funding from the board to expand exploration drilling and are confident that will be approved.

They were happy to see reduction in Anglo holding.
 
Thanks Auscan, a most informative post of yours, especially with regard to the finance - I'm just waiting for an announcement of that to get some more. So mid-June is the time to watch!

With the Mapawa drilling, it sounds from what you are saying that RED wants to add value for the project before doing anything silly like a farm-out to a major, and I am very happy to hear that. Lets hope that #3 is what we are hoping for, then we are on the way with 2 projects, Siana AND Mapawa, to add to the RED share price - I have got bored just looking at the DCF valuation on Siana alone as a valuation tool for RED, there's nothing like having the blue sky of a BIG exploration play to add real excitement into the mix.
 
that reminded me Beatle ..

GE said numerous JV enquiries are coming in --

He didn't go any further into who or how good.
 
HI Auscan, and that's interesting you mention about JV inquiries. But my view is that at this stage there is tons of blue sky in Mapawa, but no big company will take a view on anything significant until the next couple of holes confirm the likelihood of Mapawa developing into a bigger animal. Until then IMO any JV proposal will be firmly waited in favour of the incoming party, with out-clauses at minimal exploration spend. Thus its better to go wholly into it with the possibility that it might fall over, but with much more upside to any proposed deal coming in if the next holes outline great potential.

I do like the view that RED goes it alone at Mapawa, and possibly entertains some how linking in Mapawa to Boyongan down the track, that would give a very exciting future, even though Philex is a small player and not capable of assisting much with the major capital expenditure, the amalgamation of the 2 deposits would be very exciting if we know that Mapawa has a big tonnage to it as well. But of course until Mapawa is more fully defined Philex would be seeking the major part of any deal and that should not be contemplated until we know how big Mapawa could be!

With this rising gold price I hope that Deutsche Bank see the benefits of moving fast to offer the finance, it would be good for RED to set in concrete the gold loan tranche of that debt finance (and also good for RED to do some forwards covering some percentage of the open pit resource ozs if the bank will allow it).
 
Beatle .. I think RED is simply flattered by the proposals but prefers to remain footloose and fancy free at this stage.

They are encouraged by the finance situation, progress in mine development planning, milling equipment obtained and initial results of Mapawa, so while they are nicely cashed up why would they want to share the soon to be seen rewards after such a long period of waiting.
 
Hi auscan and beatle, IMO footloose and fancy free is the best way to go! Reminds me of me(lol!). One of my friends has now increased his stake by 800,000 shares, so the message is getting through to many smaller holders. Globally, I can't see the gold price dropping much as it looks to me to be in a longer term upswing as many Governments continue with their money printing programs. Still, the gold price is notoriously difficult to understand and predict. There is thinking that the gold price is continually being shorted by JP Morgan and a couple of other major investment banks. If this is so then sooner or later you would have to think it will move higher, but who knows?
Beatle, unfortunately Cadel could not finish on top as he was battling illness but 5th is still pretty good. But how about all the Aussies winning ALL of the Giro secondary jerseys! Sensational stuff! And of course Mick Rogers won the Tour of California! Go Aussies! Go RED!
 
Anderbond, yes I agree that footloose and fancy free is best for RED at the moment with Mapawa. I assume not having got any announcement in the past week re #2 we are not going to see one now until #3 is being reported on, as Auscan mentioned earlier.
With regard to the gold price, I agree its been a wild unpredictable ride, but so long as its around US1,000 and above then RED is at a HUGE discount, so the bargain hunters as you note yourself must be slowly building up reasonably big positions. I have no doubt that there will be a time when we ALL kick ourselves that we didn't load up to the brim! I am already heavily committed in RED, but will buy more again once the finance is confirmed, as then there is no threat to it not developing the project from that point and it will be a steal at whatever that price is (the thing that bugs me though is that i am sure as the financing approaches that RED's share price will have moved up already - its a shame that some people are closer to the news than others, even though in the case of RED I believe the management are very straight batters!).
With regard to the cycling, to be honest I didn't follow the Giro D'Italia in the final stages as I got sidelined with some other business which kept my head down, but now its getting closer to the Tour de France, so thats the event I love to watch on tv each night. (seems we should be well represented by a few aussies that have got a hope!).
 
Hey Beatle....did you see this little gem? I assume Sr Domingo was talking out of school, and talking about Mapawa, but interesting! The CG.


Phoenix-based mining firm interested in Surigao project
ONE OF the world’s largest miners, the Phoenix, Arizona-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc., has expressed interest to invest as much as $5 billion in a mining project in either Kalinga or Surigao del Norte, a Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) official said.
“Freeport-McMoRan is willing to invest as much as $5 billion in the Siana gold project in Surigao del Norte, which is operated by Australian miner Red 5 Ltd.,” Edwin G. Domingo, MGB director, told reporters late Friday. The firm is also studying the Batongbuhay mine in Kalinga.

Mr. Domingo said Freeport-McMoRan Executive Vice-President for Exploration David W. Potter met with him and Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) Secretary Horacio C. Ramos two weeks ago over the Siana gold project.

“The amount of investment will mainly rely on the results of drilling in the site, and Mr. Potter said they are willing to invest as much as $5 billion, which is almost as big as Xstrata Copper’s $5.2 billion investment in their Tampakan copper-gold project in Mindanao,” he said.

The Siana gold project in Surigao del Norte is already in the construction and development stage and is expected to start mining operations anytime soon, Mr. Domingo said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Domingo said Philex Mining Corp. has allocated P200 million to P300 million for exploration projects this year.

“Philex has a budget of P200 to P300 million this year for exploration projects. They have properties in Southern Negros and Zamboanga,” Mr. Domingo said.

The government official added there was a possibility of LG International Corp. forging a partnership with Philex Mining in one of the latter’s projects.

Meanwhile, Mr. Domingo said an investigation team was sent last May 26 following the suspension in November of the environmental compliance certificate of Intex Resources ASA over its Mindoro Nickel Project. “The DENR has created and mobilized an investigation team, and results of this are expected by June 4 at the latest,” Mr. Domingo said.

The government suspended the environmental permit of Intex after local government units in Oriental and Occidental Mindoro picketed DENR’s office in Quezon City.

The local governments claimed they were not consulted on the mining project’s impact in their respective communities.

“Intex doesn’t have any problems with MGB with regards to permits and other papers, so after the DENR has resolved the issue, there are no further problems with their mining operations,” Mr. Domingo said. -- Kathleen A. Martin
 
Hugh_Jarzz, I hadn't seen it and I'm staggered with the comments, but of course they may have been taken out of context by the press? I guess the upside is that provided Mapawa comes up with the goods it means that we have a real ride ahead, even after Siana finance comes through?

Its frustrating just waiting around, and watching the share price gives nothing away at the moment, but I suggest that if the finance is about ready to be granted and announced maybe the price and volume will give us a sign -then IMO its all systems a go, and RED up and away!
 
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