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VAU - Vault Minerals

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Fwpike, your comment "I am stunned that any effort would be made to impede "opposing views" on this site.."Group Think" is a very dangerous thing. I find that I learn most from those who disagree with me. " I have no problems with.

BUT I suggest you consider our mate Tech/a who suggests..."Hows it prove that? Its still nowhere!!" which fails to accept that RED is UP more than 8% today at 20.0 cents, touching 20.5 cents, on a substantial volume.

For my money Tech/a does not want to accept that RED is going somewhere, and that somewhere is UP!!!

Whatever, this positive day might indicate that some positive announcement is around the corner, hopefully re the commissioning commencing or similar.

And Fwpike, I'm sure you're also happy with that if you haven't sold your shares! I'm HAPPY with it!
 
Not sure if something is happening to be honest. RED's rise in SP could just a result of general market bullishness today as well as the rise in price of gold; not a result of impeding announcements.
 
Whatever, this positive day might indicate
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DOW +4% thats what it indicates!!

Your a cup half full kinda guy.
For me there is nothing on the chart which screams buy at this point.
Maybe oneday but not now and not for me.
 
tech/a said:
DOW +4% thats what it indicates!!

Your a cup half full kinda guy.
For me there is nothing on the chart which screams buy at this point.
Maybe oneday but not now and not for me.
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Tech/a, my cup is not half full, its full to the brim (with champagne, lol). I couldn't help myself!

Yes it might be that the general market is up, and actually RED is a slightly cheaper price overseas to US investors due to a slight falling away of the ozzie dollar. But IMO the trading prior to breaking through 19.5 cents was clearly different to what it has been lately - it might be that Matthews is reducing the velocity of his exit!
 
beatle said:
Tech/a, my cup is not half full, its full to the brim (with champagne, lol). I couldn't help myself!

Yes it might be that the general market is up, and actually RED is a slightly cheaper price overseas to US investors due to a slight falling away of the ozzie dollar. But IMO the trading prior to breaking through 19.5 cents was clearly different to what it has been lately - it might be that Matthews is reducing the velocity of his exit!
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See this is where the vast difference in trading styles are.
I have no idea who is buying and selling ---Dont care. I dont guess or speculate I anticipate. but for me to anticipate i need to clearly see a change of momentum.

Cant see that.
A change well maybe maybe not which brings me to---

Chasero said:
tech/a, what do you see as going somewhere then?

+5% on high volumes over a few days? Yes, I may have posted a bit soon, needs to break 21c
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A break of 21.5c for a start.
Id prefer to see the break as decisive and well above average volume and following through to do the same at 24c
Then youd have my attention.
Till then this is stuck 18c to 24c.
Sure you can make great $$s at 18c buy sell 24c if it does that.
Lets see how it reacts at these resistance levels.

Would want to see gold continuing up as well because if it comes off so will this!
 
tech/a said:
A break of 21.5c for a start.
Id prefer to see the break as decisive and well above average volume and following through to do the same at 24c
Then youd have my attention.
Till then this is stuck 18c to 24c.
Sure you can make great $$s at 18c buy sell 24c if it does that.
Lets see how it reacts at these resistance levels.

Would want to see gold continuing up as well because if it comes off so will this!
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Agreed.

Might be a week or so till (if) we break 21.5c
 
Hi all TRUE RED club members...

It was a good day today, 8% rise on great volume. Maybe the seller has backed off a bit. Yes market sentiment and gold price was stronger, but you could see the flurry that was happening with RED. The sales activity is starting to expand, ie, at 1 stage near 17 million to buy, against 9 million to sell. It has been on an even par for a couple of weeks.

This is exactly what i was referring to, RE, the dumper holding RED back from its potential. I can feel RED starting to breath a little more easier. Maybe this is the start of a re-rating. Maybe there is something around the corner. Only a few weeks away guys.

And tech/a, I'm a little confused again with your 20 years trading experience. How do you figure, you sound 15 !!! Your negativity and arrogance is really starting to shine, and you seem to be stepping on quite a few toes other than mine at the moment. Why do you have to cat fight with every comment ?? :banghead:
 
Moit said:
And tech/a, I'm a little confused again with your 20 years trading experience. How do you figure, you sound 15 !!! Your negativity and arrogance is really starting to shine, and you seem to be stepping on quite a few toes other than mine at the moment. Why do you have to cat fight with every comment ?? :banghead:
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I don't understand why you're jumping all over tech.

He's pointed out that he doesn't see opportunity for his trading style, acknowledging that he trades short term and only when there is already momentum. From the wealth of info he's posted on this site it's clear to me the type of trading that he is successful at and I recognise that he knows what he's talking about.

He's just keeping the thread honest. A new opinion is refreshing.

On a more relevant note, nice little move today (albeit on an up day), but agree that we need a big push through the levels already mentioned before we get too excited.
 
Good point tremmas, i just don't see why he has to continue rubbishing a stock he doesn't even hold... if it were me, i wouldn't be bothered posting on a stock in my watch list. Ive got 50 odd. Christ id be busy...
 
Moit said:
Good point tremmas, i just don't see why he has to continue rubbishing a stock he doesn't even hold... if it were me, i wouldn't be bothered posting on a stock in my watch list. Ive got 50 odd. Christ id be busy...
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Maybe the reason why he doesn't hold it is because he believe it's not going to do what you guys are thinking it will. Everyone has an opinion, don't go attacking others because they don't see things the way you do. Especially since tech/a's been using graphs and such to back his opinion up.
 
Moit said:
Good point tremmas, i just don't see why he has to continue rubbishing a stock he doesn't even hold... if it were me, i wouldn't be bothered posting on a stock in my watch list. Ive got 50 odd. Christ id be busy...
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You have a strange definition of rubbishing?
I trade only 3 things at the moment
FTSE
DAX and SPI futures
So on the stock front plenty of time.

Running a small company with 21 employees takes a little longer
My interest is sparked by people like yourself and the absence of an alternate view.
There is one you know!
 
Rubbishing carries a negative connotation and implies that the attack is personal.
I am by no means an authority on anything and extremely talented at not understanding things quickly, but there is no attacking anywhere intended.

RED is technically weak and has been since early September. That is all that is being put across. Fundamentally, a whole other story perhaps - and remains exciting; but the point to take out of it is that holding a stock blindly because of a story is dangerous in some people's eyes and thus they seek to try and aid those that they perceive to be at risk by bringing some balance into the discussion by offering their interpretation of the situation.

So anyone that sees an attack on their investment and responds defensively portrays their reasons for holding as emotional (not arguing whether these reasons are valid or not) and this is in complete contrast to the way that technicals work. Profit comes from emotional buyers and emotional sellers.

So; whilst it may seem gruff to some, that seed of doubt that may have crept in is actually a favour, not an attack, and is worth considering.

Everyone make their own mind up of course. Certainly at this stage the fundamentals and technicals are at odds, and that is exactly why we are in this situation posting here and expecting higher prices.
We now have some technical analysis on RED and a wealth of fundamental analysis, so cheers all round, thank you all for contributing.
 
tech/a said:
15 hell I wish!

Enjoying the discussion.
Particularly your comments.
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Hmmm my guess would be about 50 years old, sucessfully self employed, but got into business in the last 15 years after making a few good bucks from the stock market (how close am I ?)
Anyhow I do agree with your veiws on RED, although I do hold.
Today was a good day for RED but it was also good for a massive amount of others.
If RED doesnt hit 24 cents soon I will be out (not to say that I wont get back in at some stage), I think its worth holding on to RED for the next week to see what happens.
MACD is changing direction/momentum which is a posative but in saying this Monday could see a reversal back to 18.5/19.0...just see what happens.
If there is posative trading early next week I believe that confirmation of the BUY will be at 22.5 with fair volume breaking its recent highs.
Here is my chart.
 

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How close
Self employed for 35 yrs
Business is a civil construction company
In my 50s
Trade because I can and not because I have to.
Couldnt think of anything worse would bore me to death as anyone who can turn a profit trading will attest to.
 
Looking across gold equities, EAU, MML, RED, etc...

They all are following the same pattern. The question is... are gold equities worth going long?
 
tech/a said:
See this is where the vast difference in trading styles are.
I have no idea who is buying and selling ---Dont care. I dont guess or speculate I anticipate. but for me to anticipate i need to clearly see a change of momentum.

Cant see that.
A change well maybe maybe not which brings me to---



A break of 21.5c for a start.
Id prefer to see the break as decisive and well above average volume and following through to do the same at 24c
Then youd have my attention.
Till then this is stuck 18c to 24c.
Sure you can make great $$s at 18c buy sell 24c if it does that.
Lets see how it reacts at these resistance levels.

Would want to see gold continuing up as well because if it comes off so will this!
Click to expand...

Tech/a, I agree that your trading style is vastly different to mine. I have stated so many times that I don't have much knowledge of charting, other than to be aware of what chartists are thinking so I can develop my view of what traders using that as a basis for their own trading. But in fact since I watch the screen most days on and off unless I fall asleep (lol) I do notice the patterns of the various trading activities that are employed for RED. And whilst you don't give a damn about who is trading, as you state, I do as it tells me whether a major player seems to be buying or selling - and I will give you an example:

I have consistently bought RED over the years, now I have quite an accumulation. There are times over the years when I bought at a considerable premium to the share price of the following weeks when I have bought up shares only to find out someone substantial has been dumping. In latter times I have been more aware of who is exiting - for instance when Matthews was dumping a few months back he enabled me to buy more when it retraced all the way back to 12.0 cents (but I was buying at 14.0 cents a little earlier). So while I know Matthews has been selling recently I was not prepared to buy more shares while he was dumping, who knows how low he was prepared to take it down.

Now from your technical analysis, maybe a good chartist can convert that into charting information, without the need to know the exact reasons for it going down, but for my purpose I am more comfortable with knowing the seller (or the buyer), if its possible. And of course you can't be confirmed on my interpretation on anyone who is not a substantial shareholder (and Matthews has proved to be very poor at putting in substantial shareholder notice variations, its lucky that RED does publish them at the base of most announcements!).

And whilst you are happy with your trading style then I'm also happy with my investing style too. I took your comment as RED having similar trading patterns to PEN as a generalisation that proved you didn't really know much about the company, and for your trading maybe you don't need to know it, but for my investing style I do need to know, and I am very comforted that RED has got a fundamental valuation north of the mid 30's, it just depends on how high you want to apply the following years gold prices to get a better idea. Petra Capital at 37 cents is an indication of their view on gold price.
AND by the word valuation, I am basing it on value as determined from a cash flow forecast using ore reserve information. For the uninformed, its the best way to determine an NPV for a company in production, and for any company that NPV tends to be an underpinning value as most successful lower cost, longer life operations tend to trade at a considerable premium to that underlying value.

I just want to see how RED goes once it announces it is ramping up its gold production in line with the production schedule in the coming months (of course AFTER the commissioning and first gold pour).
 
There is nothing wrong with becoming an expert in one or a handful of companies.
You only really need a few exceptional growth stock in a lifetime if you have enough initial capital behind you---- to change your life--or even lifestyle.

Westfield
Commonwealth
West farmers
Fortesque

Are a couple which spring to mind
Perhaps RED will join those ranks
 
tech/a said:
There is nothing wrong with becoming an expert in one or a handful of companies.
You only really need a few exceptional growth stock in a lifetime if you have enough initial capital behind you---- to change your life--or even lifestyle.

Westfield
Commonwealth
West farmers
Fortesque

Are a couple which spring to mind
Perhaps RED will join those ranks
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Whilst I do show a love affair with RED, I'm also a realist Tech/a!

Based on its current gold project at Siana, RED can only become a small-mid tier gold producer, it would not develop into anything beyond that. IF Mapawa or one of the other porphyry prospects start to prove more than additional feed into the Siana gold plant then RED could build its market cap beyond A$1.0 billion, but it would never be able to achieve anything like that without additional projects to its core Siana gold project.

I'm not sure if you were being facetious with your comment Tech/a about it possibly being another FMG, but just to let you know I don't have a business with 21 employees, but I have been involved in the mining industry a lifetime until I retired, was an executive company director and investment banker before that, so I do know a little about what might be achievable.

But I agree that you only need a few good investments to set yourself up for a lifetime. RED does provide an opportunity for those who want to be patient to make more than a quick trade due to its significant discount at present, but one must also recognise that it still has the risks associated with any resource project!

I'm comfortable with that risk, and since my first shares in RED (GNR as it was known at the time) were purchased as a placement at around 2 cents I'm well in the money despite me buying many more at much higher prices in recent years, and at a few times when Siana wasn't even a consideration in the company or when I was so frustrated with developments at Siana a few years ago I did sell a some RED shares too. AND RED has helped set me up for many other successful investments over recent years, but now I'm simply holding to wait for its true value being determined by the market! And I don't mean another PEN!
 
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