VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
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tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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This is all spectulation.
You all feel better if you can explain why there are sales.
Simply you dont know who is selling let alone why?
Its not a sign of weakness
Nor is it strength.
Infact its on par with most everything else in the market today
You all feel better if you can explain why there are sales.
Simply you dont know who is selling let alone why?
Its not a sign of weakness
Nor is it strength.
Infact its on par with most everything else in the market today
Yes Moit/Snsdmonkey I was referring to the dump ~10.20am. And if it was Matthews there might be more to follow based on his recent past. And yes Tech/a I have no clue why he's selling if it's him (although there seems to be some problem with his relationship with management from what I can gather)!
But I'm not so worried about why he's selling, more that he could cap it's rise for a while.
But I'm not so worried about why he's selling, more that he could cap it's rise for a while.
15th of April 2010. No offence Beatle but at 18c back then and with those too many reasons it hasn't really changed a year+ on. Perhaps now with the on coming gold pour it may have hopefully the right reason for moving up but you would think that the market would have factored that in already? I've tipped it to move up in the November stock contest on the news of a gold pour and if there's a delay i reckon i'll be on the bottom of the list at the end of the month.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Id be suprised if much of the Fundamental expectations have not been already factored into the price.
If so you maybe suprised at the performance of RED.
Doubled in price June- Sept
If so you maybe suprised at the performance of RED.
Doubled in price June- Sept
gday beatle wondering if you could give me some advice.
I have most of my cash in a company that will give me an almost guaranteed 25% in May next year, but it means my money is tied up until then. I respect your wisdom and experience in the market as I have followed your posts for a long time. Do you think it would be wiser to accept the 25% annualised 40% or sell now at a loss and put it into RED or other specs that could give me a better return. TIA
I have most of my cash in a company that will give me an almost guaranteed 25% in May next year, but it means my money is tied up until then. I respect your wisdom and experience in the market as I have followed your posts for a long time. Do you think it would be wiser to accept the 25% annualised 40% or sell now at a loss and put it into RED or other specs that could give me a better return. TIA
H Jancha, no problems with your observations, and I agree that its been a dismal price performer in the last year or so. The biggest issue has been the expectation of a gold pour in April this year, and due to the quagmire onsite related to historically high rainfall the share has suffered due to continued disbelief for its failure to meet the company's own timeframes and announced gold pour date!
I personally have been onsite a few times recently, and guess what - the photos RED has put on their website ACTUALLY are of Siana, lol! AND the progress towards actual gold production is definitely clear to see. AND whilst there could be slippage of a week or 2 to first gold production, it certainly is gearing up as expected, and I won't be too concerned about these micro-moves.
Tech/a, I have no problem with your comments about it already peaked - perhaps you just need to watch and see how things work out in the coming months.... (I have got my money where my mouth is, and whilst I don't have a big mouth, I have got more than a few million shares in RED, so let's see how it pans out!). What many have failed to recognise with its share movements up from the single digits through to its current share price, is that most gold producers do trade at a PREMIUM to the NPV value, and generally at a significant premium if the gold producer has a long life, low cost mine. RED is still about 50% of that NPV value, and it will re-equilibrate in its own time, once the milestones are achieved, viz, Wet commissioning completion, first gold pour, steady state gold production, confirmation of production rates/cost levels. Then it will be priced more on its EPS, P/E rather than the NPV, plus any successes it may have with its exploration outside of the Siana pit. And yes you are quite right, all of that depends also on gold price in the coming months. I can't see it falling below US1,000/oz any time soon, thats why I am confident that RED will perform well in the coming months. (Regardless of how it looks like on the charts today).
(Oh Moit, I forgot to add that I thought that bollinger was a type of champagne - and I reckon that's what we will be drinking when it really does re-value, lol).
I personally have been onsite a few times recently, and guess what - the photos RED has put on their website ACTUALLY are of Siana, lol! AND the progress towards actual gold production is definitely clear to see. AND whilst there could be slippage of a week or 2 to first gold production, it certainly is gearing up as expected, and I won't be too concerned about these micro-moves.
Tech/a, I have no problem with your comments about it already peaked - perhaps you just need to watch and see how things work out in the coming months.... (I have got my money where my mouth is, and whilst I don't have a big mouth, I have got more than a few million shares in RED, so let's see how it pans out!). What many have failed to recognise with its share movements up from the single digits through to its current share price, is that most gold producers do trade at a PREMIUM to the NPV value, and generally at a significant premium if the gold producer has a long life, low cost mine. RED is still about 50% of that NPV value, and it will re-equilibrate in its own time, once the milestones are achieved, viz, Wet commissioning completion, first gold pour, steady state gold production, confirmation of production rates/cost levels. Then it will be priced more on its EPS, P/E rather than the NPV, plus any successes it may have with its exploration outside of the Siana pit. And yes you are quite right, all of that depends also on gold price in the coming months. I can't see it falling below US1,000/oz any time soon, thats why I am confident that RED will perform well in the coming months. (Regardless of how it looks like on the charts today).
(Oh Moit, I forgot to add that I thought that bollinger was a type of champagne - and I reckon that's what we will be drinking when it really does re-value, lol).
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Beatle
What was your buy in price?
What was your buy in price?
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Weird close for the day. Massive dump down to 0.195 and then it rose back to 0.205 in no time.
Adjusted back to 0.195 LOL
Adjusted back to 0.195 LOL
8% friday 2% today
Haven't been this in this many profits since early this year.
nvm -ve today! Man why can't I edit!
Tech/a, my buy in price is problematical, noting that I have bought a lot of shares very cheaply many years ago, then sold some, then bought some, etc etc (I have held shares for more than 14 or so years!), and bought more during the early part of the GFC, but more recently bought a lot at around 14.0 cents, plus 18.0 cents so those last buys have affected the overall average price. I confirm that it would have to drop appreciably for me to be even square.
But that sort of investment (or at points it was definitely speculation of the highest order!), is not available to traders. I tend to take a position very early on and hold it and slowly average as it moves in step with my view - this has not always worked out, I lost out on ATN when the company put out misleading information and that hurt my investment. And at the moment I have been slowly accumulating on COZ, i consider this will be a real bonanza but no way would a chartist consider buying COZ at the moment!
Because RED has been so important for me, as I say I have made a lot on those shares I traded out of much earlier (bearing in mind initially I was buying at prices around 2 cents back in 1997!) and I hold an appreciable amount (in value terms) currently I watch it like a hawke, I talk with the main players continuously, and I have gone onsite to establish that progress is as the reports confirm.
Whilst I'm not privy to anything that is not already available to the market I get more comfort by being so close to the daily activities of the company, and it gives me something to do when I get bored watching the screen (and having a nap). Being a chartist, what you do not understand and don't want to know about, is that RED will be a serious gold producer, its bankable feasibility study is sound in all respects, its capital investment is substantial, it is being put together by a competent team of professionals who have been involved in the mining industry for many years and the contractors, both processing and mining wise, are industry experienced.
In all my years I have never had so many frustrations due to the delays experienced with the project however, the fact the Mapawa MPSA took forever to be granted, the first resource statement and the underground ore reserve statements were exceedingly slow in being determined, the first expected development based on Soc Gen finance in 2008 didn't eventuate. ALL these factors have built a high level of disbelief that RED would ever produce gold at Siana. But to give them credit they have continued to fight against the grain on all these issues, and despite the rainfall early on in the year impacting the development, they have finally got to the stage where they on the cusp of gold production. Its all these delays and failed attempts to develop the project that has enabled RED to be very attractively priced now, and remains still full of doubt by many participants following the share price on a daily basis.
But that sort of investment (or at points it was definitely speculation of the highest order!), is not available to traders. I tend to take a position very early on and hold it and slowly average as it moves in step with my view - this has not always worked out, I lost out on ATN when the company put out misleading information and that hurt my investment. And at the moment I have been slowly accumulating on COZ, i consider this will be a real bonanza but no way would a chartist consider buying COZ at the moment!
Because RED has been so important for me, as I say I have made a lot on those shares I traded out of much earlier (bearing in mind initially I was buying at prices around 2 cents back in 1997!) and I hold an appreciable amount (in value terms) currently I watch it like a hawke, I talk with the main players continuously, and I have gone onsite to establish that progress is as the reports confirm.
Whilst I'm not privy to anything that is not already available to the market I get more comfort by being so close to the daily activities of the company, and it gives me something to do when I get bored watching the screen (and having a nap). Being a chartist, what you do not understand and don't want to know about, is that RED will be a serious gold producer, its bankable feasibility study is sound in all respects, its capital investment is substantial, it is being put together by a competent team of professionals who have been involved in the mining industry for many years and the contractors, both processing and mining wise, are industry experienced.
In all my years I have never had so many frustrations due to the delays experienced with the project however, the fact the Mapawa MPSA took forever to be granted, the first resource statement and the underground ore reserve statements were exceedingly slow in being determined, the first expected development based on Soc Gen finance in 2008 didn't eventuate. ALL these factors have built a high level of disbelief that RED would ever produce gold at Siana. But to give them credit they have continued to fight against the grain on all these issues, and despite the rainfall early on in the year impacting the development, they have finally got to the stage where they on the cusp of gold production. Its all these delays and failed attempts to develop the project that has enabled RED to be very attractively priced now, and remains still full of doubt by many participants following the share price on a daily basis.
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Short term testing of previous resistance, now support.
Rectangle target either 18.5c or 21.5c
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I had an idea that today would see some sort of reversal from Friday (I did post it on Friday I think) and I think tomorrow will see a continuation of today with a possible (very possible) 18.5 cent close.
Your forcast of 21.5 is quite a bit away from 28 cents?
Regards
Dougs Antiques
Sorry Rick64, you & I were posting at the same time earlier so I failed to see your post. As you will be aware, I'm not a financial advisor so all I can do is make some general comments that might give you some food for thought to assist your own decision. And I'm sure you don't want me to tell you how to suck eggs but you might think I am!
Firstly, there is no doubt that the equities market is highly volatile at the moment, & many sectors of the market are trading at relatively low historic prices. Some sectors such as retail deserve that due to very difficult market conditions, but others such as the banks are trading at low prices as translated into dividend yields.
You need to consider whether your current investment is in a sector that really will provide the guaranteed 25% return that you refer to-this is completely unrelated to whether you invest any money in RED. I personally have never bought shares with money that should've been used to say for example pay down outstanding debts (long term home loan excepted).
With regard to the general market I'm of the view the only sector that will likely benefit from the demise of the euro zone & USA debt burden - remains the gold sector, especially with an increasing possibility of QE3 for the USA. That will benefit RED along with other gold producers. I'm confident that RED will produce gold within the next 4 or 5 weeks & that its therefore got the added bonus of a rerating plus the gold price move. But like any gold producer it will always have the usual risks associated with gold producers plus the added risks that start up operations incur.
There are other factors which could affect share price in the coming weeks, such as:
1. Matthews selling down further - this could push the share price down a tad, not just cap the price (he did that over the past few months when he moved from 17 odd % down to 6 odd %!).
2. Whilst the proposed consolidation is probably favourable for RED in the longer term, it may place some pressure on the price at the time it does occur (again this depends on how many positive announcements might coincide with any consolidation).
I suggest if you decide you want to invest more in RED it won't hurt to remove some of those factors by delaying your purchase to once the consolidation has occurred & when RED has made an announcement regarding commissioning or first gold pour.
In the meantime Matthews may have lowered the price as well!
I wouldn't be recommending buying into any spec stocks at the moment with the way things are going, having said that I admit to slowly accumulating my "next big thing".
Firstly, there is no doubt that the equities market is highly volatile at the moment, & many sectors of the market are trading at relatively low historic prices. Some sectors such as retail deserve that due to very difficult market conditions, but others such as the banks are trading at low prices as translated into dividend yields.
You need to consider whether your current investment is in a sector that really will provide the guaranteed 25% return that you refer to-this is completely unrelated to whether you invest any money in RED. I personally have never bought shares with money that should've been used to say for example pay down outstanding debts (long term home loan excepted).
With regard to the general market I'm of the view the only sector that will likely benefit from the demise of the euro zone & USA debt burden - remains the gold sector, especially with an increasing possibility of QE3 for the USA. That will benefit RED along with other gold producers. I'm confident that RED will produce gold within the next 4 or 5 weeks & that its therefore got the added bonus of a rerating plus the gold price move. But like any gold producer it will always have the usual risks associated with gold producers plus the added risks that start up operations incur.
There are other factors which could affect share price in the coming weeks, such as:
1. Matthews selling down further - this could push the share price down a tad, not just cap the price (he did that over the past few months when he moved from 17 odd % down to 6 odd %!).
2. Whilst the proposed consolidation is probably favourable for RED in the longer term, it may place some pressure on the price at the time it does occur (again this depends on how many positive announcements might coincide with any consolidation).
I suggest if you decide you want to invest more in RED it won't hurt to remove some of those factors by delaying your purchase to once the consolidation has occurred & when RED has made an announcement regarding commissioning or first gold pour.
In the meantime Matthews may have lowered the price as well!
I wouldn't be recommending buying into any spec stocks at the moment with the way things are going, having said that I admit to slowly accumulating my "next big thing".
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I just had a look at the weekly chart and it indicates quite a different story than Chalea.
My methods may be quite different than most and some may scrutinise my methods (Tech/a,Chalea) but it works for me.
Anyhow the weekly chart with MACD indicator shows that a change in direction is near and wil be a negative change.
This assumption is ofcourse based on no announcements from RED which would change the chart accordingly.
Im open for discussion on the RED chart.
Regards
Dougs Antiques
My methods may be quite different than most and some may scrutinise my methods (Tech/a,Chalea) but it works for me.
Anyhow the weekly chart with MACD indicator shows that a change in direction is near and wil be a negative change.
This assumption is ofcourse based on no announcements from RED which would change the chart accordingly.
Im open for discussion on the RED chart
.Regards
Dougs Antiques
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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You maybe right you maybe wrong.Too early to tell.
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This method that I use is very basic, no smoke or mirrors, just plain simple weekly chart with 12/26 indicator.
Just a plain and simple and not complicated system that has a high percentage hit rate.
Regards
Dougs Antiques
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Its correct ALL of the time.
Its an average of price shown as a line over laid on a price chart.
Its just one average crossing another.
Like all oscillators if you enjoy getting whipsawed in Real time you'll love them.
Its an average of price shown as a line over laid on a price chart.
Its just one average crossing another.
Like all oscillators if you enjoy getting whipsawed in Real time you'll love them.
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The daily has too many micro moves to be stable but the weekly serves my purpose better.
Just my way.
I dont have time to spend all day going over micro moves on multiple stocks.
It certainly isnt showing 28 cents (barring announcements)
Regards
Dougs Antiques
Just my way.
I dont have time to spend all day going over micro moves on multiple stocks.
It certainly isnt showing 28 cents (barring announcements)
Regards
Dougs Antiques