VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
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Flat Day?
Because Matthew is dumping, he is hindering the rise of the SP so close to November! Another reason why I believe any chance of getting fair value at pour is a pipe dream at best.
ASX up, RED down. ASX Down, Red Down. It is a lose/lose situation here for this stock and I am kicking myself that I did not exit at 24cps.
The frustration is building to peak levels.
Because Matthew is dumping, he is hindering the rise of the SP so close to November! Another reason why I believe any chance of getting fair value at pour is a pipe dream at best.
ASX up, RED down. ASX Down, Red Down. It is a lose/lose situation here for this stock and I am kicking myself that I did not exit at 24cps.
The frustration is building to peak levels.
A few on here need to relax a little bit imo and let the market sort out the value of RED. Watching and moaning about each 0.5c move or algo bots trading a handful of shares at a time is a waste of energy and pretty pointless.
For all RED's promise, it is still just that promise atm. Until we start seeing earnings from gold production I very much doubt we will see RED re-rated too much past 25c. I personally don't think an announcement of the first gold pour will have an major effect on the sp because it is well known to the market. The overall market conditions also need to be taken into account - the market is in a phase where risk is priced into share prices at a higher ratio and whether holders of RED like it or not while RED has no or limited earnings the market will price more risk into it's sp.
Earnings is now the thing that will start to truly move the sp with gusto. How long before we see earnings? I have no idea but if you are in for the long term and the company can actually deliver we will eventually see the sp rise, but of course if the company fails to deliver we will also see the sp drop accordingly.
For all RED's promise, it is still just that promise atm. Until we start seeing earnings from gold production I very much doubt we will see RED re-rated too much past 25c. I personally don't think an announcement of the first gold pour will have an major effect on the sp because it is well known to the market. The overall market conditions also need to be taken into account - the market is in a phase where risk is priced into share prices at a higher ratio and whether holders of RED like it or not while RED has no or limited earnings the market will price more risk into it's sp.
Earnings is now the thing that will start to truly move the sp with gusto. How long before we see earnings? I have no idea but if you are in for the long term and the company can actually deliver we will eventually see the sp rise, but of course if the company fails to deliver we will also see the sp drop accordingly.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Can't believe people trade this way.
Can't believe people hang on every post and react the way they do!
Trading isnt hard people
RED
Ain't going anywhere soon.
That took all of 3 minutes analysis.
When it does move you'll all see it as clear as day with plenty of Time to profit from it.
No reason to think that's anytime soon
Can't believe people hang on every post and react the way they do!
Trading isnt hard people
RED
Ain't going anywhere soon.
That took all of 3 minutes analysis.
When it does move you'll all see it as clear as day with plenty of Time to profit from it.
No reason to think that's anytime soon
I can't see Red above 24.5c for a long time. We have shareholders with millions and millions of shares issued to them at 17c who would see a 50% profit at that price. The pity of it all is that much of the money raised is just sitting there paying for remuneration increases etc but not working. That IMHO will prove to have been be a very expensive capital raising.
Red share price will increase, or at least shareholders will share the bounty, when we shareholders demand dividends from the income stream that is about to begin. Otherwise I see Mapawa eating capital for years to come with the share price languishing.
Red share price will increase, or at least shareholders will share the bounty, when we shareholders demand dividends from the income stream that is about to begin. Otherwise I see Mapawa eating capital for years to come with the share price languishing.
Well your 3 minutes of analysis Tech/a compares with my 40 odd years of being in the stock market, and I suggest to you that shares actually do tend to increase in the expectation of some event happening, even ahead of time, believe it or not! (Lol).
If you look at history you will see time and again that a company going into production of whatever mineral resource will move up in expectation of it producing, notwithstanding the risk that the project will not deliver. Of course it won't jump to some considerable level seen by the market as its intrinsic value overnight, it will move towards that level, some of that ahead of production, in anticipation.
RED has already moved somewhat with anticipation, but its had a few hiccups along the way, and at the moment is treading water despite an expectation of various newsworthy items due any day! Thus its yet to move appreciably in line with its fundamentals based on current gold price.
And yes, RED will at some point in the future, provided it meets its forecast gold production, revenue and costs, should move above that fundamental value (ie at a premium), of course that time won't happen until its clear that all is well and the project is a successful operation.
Fwpike, I agree that it would be good to have an early small dividend after it has begun to build up a significant cash reserve! That will take time though, its like counting the chickens before they hatch! I hope that RED does undertake a careful analysis of Mapawa, plus a number of other potential mega gold porphyry prospects within the MPSA's at both Siana and Mapawa. Its only once they start getting some real positive intersections (and in gold production) that RED will begin to move appreciably above fundamental value.
Thanks MrJeff, yes the quarterly confirms that everything remains on track for wet commissioning and first gold pour (with ramp up thereafter in the coming weeks). There are no surprises occurring since the last update. Its positive that:
1. Pit has now been dewatered to the extent necessary, the balance to be used in the commissioning process;
2. Mine material movement is ahead of budget, which is positive for future mine production. Drill/blast has commenced, that is another confirmation that the mining procedure is working;
3. Capex costs are as previously forecast, and yet the project is bolstered by the additional safety (as in risk mitigation) measures such as including double pit ramp, onsite power, new and larger SAG mill.
Matthews has dropped another 0.5% of his stock (ie around 6.4 million shares) in the past few weeks since October 4. He remains the outstanding issue IMO!!! I wish RED would approach him to discuss his situation and possibly facilitate some behind the scenes share transaction if he wants to get out.
1. Pit has now been dewatered to the extent necessary, the balance to be used in the commissioning process;
2. Mine material movement is ahead of budget, which is positive for future mine production. Drill/blast has commenced, that is another confirmation that the mining procedure is working;
3. Capex costs are as previously forecast, and yet the project is bolstered by the additional safety (as in risk mitigation) measures such as including double pit ramp, onsite power, new and larger SAG mill.
Matthews has dropped another 0.5% of his stock (ie around 6.4 million shares) in the past few weeks since October 4. He remains the outstanding issue IMO!!! I wish RED would approach him to discuss his situation and possibly facilitate some behind the scenes share transaction if he wants to get out.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Well 20 yrs of Trading has given me the experience to read a companies chart in minutes.
RED's trading today reflects the ho hum response to todays announcements.
Volume is rubbish.
Currently trading 5 c from its recient and historic high.
This resistance is not being challenged.
Until it is rehetoric and speculation wont help your or anyones position in the company.
On the flip side if you know how to trade these little speccies.
(It has traded from 5C to 24C) there is good $$s to be made.
You need to know when --- speculation as to value---isnt the best indicator---in my opinion as its only your/or someone elses opinion. Have a look at the PEN thread and see how massive profit was turned into spectacular losses. But hey if your happy then ----
Im just amazed at the amount of speculation and back slapping that goes on in these fundamental threads prior to and after announcements. It seems like a fellowship of cleverness in speculation.
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We are the fellowship of the RED. Evil times are approaching.
I read your last post a few times trying to work out what your point is but not completely sure, other than that you are apparently a good chartist -I am the first to admit, and I have said this on a number of occasions in the past, that I have NO IDEA how to interpret a chart other than general trends.
As to a fundamental view, I do have 40 plus years experience as both a share investor plus work in the mining industry. And yet it still takes me more than a few minutes to form a view on whether a project and a company will make money. Maybe I'm a slow learner, lol!
BUT I can assure you I have spent many years scrutinising RED and its Siana gold project, it is no more a speculation than other gold producing operations are (ie still subject to the same risks as other gold producers, plus the start up risk that might relate more to the possibility of delays). It has gone through a full and comprehensive bankable feasibility study, with rigorous assessment by industry competent consultants, it WILL produce gold in the short term, and it will deliver very good profits subject to those risks I suggest above.
I don't understand what the relationship is with PEN, that company I understand is still going through its DFS and is focused on uranium. What's your point about this, I don't see the commonality?
But one thing I agree on, we are a strong RED club that I am proud to be a member of and am happy to post for the benefit of all. AND differences of opinion are welcome, it adds to the discussion and might even allow us all to consider things from a different perspective. Believe it or not I have an open mind! So don't assume that we all are saying RED has done everything right or whatever, amongst us we do have our gripes at times, I certainly do!
A new Petra Capital research report is on Red 5 site - worth a look.
Petra's view on today's quarterly confirms a couple of things: 1. Sound fundamentals continue to underpin the future prospects of Red 5. 2. With project close to finality it is derisking by the day. 3. Progress on track with first gold pour imminent. 4. Petra's states with regard the pending review of mine plan and cut-off grades, that the company's objective is to keep prodcution cost below $400 /oz. 5. They believe valuation remains at NPV of 0.37 Cents.
My view is it's a screaming BUY! I don't know whether it will have a re-rating this week, next or the month after that - but at some stage (possibly sooner rather than later) word will get out!
Mind you (speaking of getting word out), if there is one massive lacking of management, particularly in the build up to mine commencement - it's their seeming lack of commitment to fully embrace the Australian investment community (ie. all brokers, funds managers etc) with information and promotion about the imminent commencement of the NEXT listed Australian gold miner to commence production. I know GE is up to his armpits, but they do have the cash resources to allocate to the proliferation of the Red5story in the market place. To date, poor show guys!
Lots of attention has been payed to smattering North American and London based F/Mgrs with info and presentations though. What about Australian brokerages houses? You could count on one hand the number local brokers giving Red regular coverage.
Management has even decided to progress with a share consolidation (at 10 to 1!) so that the northern hemisphere brigade will (hopefully) stop viewing Red as a penny dreadful. That's at least 6 to 12 months early in my view. The inevitable market re-rating alone should have been allowed to keep a consolidation at 5 to 1 and hence maintain more liquidity in the share (i.e. 250 million shares instead of 125 million). Liquidity of the stock is the big issue here! With 60% of the shares held by only 20 participants, Matthews aside, for arguments sake let's assume that the other 19 want to hold for the long term, that means only 40m to 50m shares are potentially tradeable. This is not a good move. I feel management has been given bad advice here.
It also means that holders with substantial quantities find it harder to adjust their portfolios (i.e. sell down some or buy some more) in any significant $ quantities due to the challenges of low liquidity. This could also account for why some seem to have decided to lighten their load now rather than be caught in a low liquidity stock in 4 weeks time. I'm in for the long haul so personally I'm not that concerned - but I just though the thread my be interested in this line of thought.
On the flip side, scarcity of a sought after commodity also translates into higher prices, so when the North Americans decide to buy-in, hopefully they'll pay through the nose!
Let's hope Red management also decides as some stage soon that the Australian broking and funds management community deserve to be bombarded with the Red5 story before the rest of the world has driven the price to dizzy heights (lol).
Petra's view on today's quarterly confirms a couple of things: 1. Sound fundamentals continue to underpin the future prospects of Red 5. 2. With project close to finality it is derisking by the day. 3. Progress on track with first gold pour imminent. 4. Petra's states with regard the pending review of mine plan and cut-off grades, that the company's objective is to keep prodcution cost below $400 /oz. 5. They believe valuation remains at NPV of 0.37 Cents.
My view is it's a screaming BUY! I don't know whether it will have a re-rating this week, next or the month after that - but at some stage (possibly sooner rather than later) word will get out!
Mind you (speaking of getting word out), if there is one massive lacking of management, particularly in the build up to mine commencement - it's their seeming lack of commitment to fully embrace the Australian investment community (ie. all brokers, funds managers etc) with information and promotion about the imminent commencement of the NEXT listed Australian gold miner to commence production. I know GE is up to his armpits, but they do have the cash resources to allocate to the proliferation of the Red5story in the market place. To date, poor show guys!
Lots of attention has been payed to smattering North American and London based F/Mgrs with info and presentations though. What about Australian brokerages houses? You could count on one hand the number local brokers giving Red regular coverage.
Management has even decided to progress with a share consolidation (at 10 to 1!) so that the northern hemisphere brigade will (hopefully) stop viewing Red as a penny dreadful. That's at least 6 to 12 months early in my view. The inevitable market re-rating alone should have been allowed to keep a consolidation at 5 to 1 and hence maintain more liquidity in the share (i.e. 250 million shares instead of 125 million). Liquidity of the stock is the big issue here! With 60% of the shares held by only 20 participants, Matthews aside, for arguments sake let's assume that the other 19 want to hold for the long term, that means only 40m to 50m shares are potentially tradeable. This is not a good move. I feel management has been given bad advice here.
It also means that holders with substantial quantities find it harder to adjust their portfolios (i.e. sell down some or buy some more) in any significant $ quantities due to the challenges of low liquidity. This could also account for why some seem to have decided to lighten their load now rather than be caught in a low liquidity stock in 4 weeks time. I'm in for the long haul so personally I'm not that concerned - but I just though the thread my be interested in this line of thought.
On the flip side, scarcity of a sought after commodity also translates into higher prices, so when the North Americans decide to buy-in, hopefully they'll pay through the nose!
Let's hope Red management also decides as some stage soon that the Australian broking and funds management community deserve to be bombarded with the Red5 story before the rest of the world has driven the price to dizzy heights (lol).
Geezuguys, some great points made and thanks for the comments about Petra, I hadn't noticed it and at least the valuation is getting within a bulls roar of what I think it can get to without the consolidation. I'm not sure if they will manage to achieve an operating cost of less than US$400/oz to get anything like the increase in gold inventory in reserves that should be considered appropriate with a gold price around $1,500 per ounce or above, but we are yet to hear that result.
I agree entirely with you regarding reasonably poor Australian PR, and lack of promotion of the company within the Australian broking fraternity. Certainly they do have some supported already there, including Wilsons, Evans, BellDirect, that I am aware of, but the broader industry seems to have been forgotten. And certainly RED should be putting more oomph into its team to beef that up if GE is to remain MD based in Philippines (but by the same account it brings me back to having to pay more people to cover the same bases due to having the MD based in Philippines!).
The consolidation is an interesting topic, I am wondering how much support RED has been provided by the insto's who are currently in the stock. And yes you make a good point in suggesting perhaps a 1 for 5 consolidation would give more liquidity for trading volumes. Actually RED has been sprouting 31 insto's, not 20, so clearly they have already got a lot of insto support, ie a relatively high shareholding held by so few. I would have thought RED would feel less comfortable with some many larger shareholders on its books, giving it less control in the event of a mutiny, for whatever reason!
I'm still waiting for the re-rating, but at some point we will all be wondering why we didn't buy more! IMO of course.
I agree entirely with you regarding reasonably poor Australian PR, and lack of promotion of the company within the Australian broking fraternity. Certainly they do have some supported already there, including Wilsons, Evans, BellDirect, that I am aware of, but the broader industry seems to have been forgotten. And certainly RED should be putting more oomph into its team to beef that up if GE is to remain MD based in Philippines (but by the same account it brings me back to having to pay more people to cover the same bases due to having the MD based in Philippines!).
The consolidation is an interesting topic, I am wondering how much support RED has been provided by the insto's who are currently in the stock. And yes you make a good point in suggesting perhaps a 1 for 5 consolidation would give more liquidity for trading volumes. Actually RED has been sprouting 31 insto's, not 20, so clearly they have already got a lot of insto support, ie a relatively high shareholding held by so few. I would have thought RED would feel less comfortable with some many larger shareholders on its books, giving it less control in the event of a mutiny, for whatever reason!
I'm still waiting for the re-rating, but at some point we will all be wondering why we didn't buy more! IMO of course.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Nothing to do with the two companies and everything to dowith the same "type" of fanatical following by those with a vested interest.
In PEN'S case a few went from riches to rags kicking and screaming all the way.
It was and still is un thinkable that their pet could possibly drop 400%
Not only that but they rode it all the way to the bottom " averaging down" all the way!
The comparison is limited to the above without the 400 % crash but certainly with the same dissection of every announcement and in depth discussion/speculation.
But RED IS different isn it!
Thanks for the clarification Tech/a, i guess the commonality you refer to is the apparent love affair that I have with RED, that some others may have had with PEN.
The fact that I can actually put a fundamental value based on NPV cash flow valuation for RED's Siana gold project is why I continue to support RED and consider it being hugely discounted at present (by around 50% to that NPV estimate). Clearly that could never have been done for PEN which doesn't have an ore reserve even to this day!
Since completing its bankable feasibility study RED has now raised all the cash it has required, it is now around 95% completed with its process plant, completed dewatering the old pit, is forging ahead with drill/blast within the pit, and about to undertake commissioning of the plant, plus has around $16 million in reserves and another undrawn credit line of $8.0 million. And by the company's own statement yesterday its on the verge of pouring first gold! So if you can't see why I hold the view that RED remains an outstanding buy in the market place, then I suggest you should look elsewhere for a bargain. Maybe the industrial sector is more for you.
Good luck RED holders.
The fact that I can actually put a fundamental value based on NPV cash flow valuation for RED's Siana gold project is why I continue to support RED and consider it being hugely discounted at present (by around 50% to that NPV estimate). Clearly that could never have been done for PEN which doesn't have an ore reserve even to this day!
Since completing its bankable feasibility study RED has now raised all the cash it has required, it is now around 95% completed with its process plant, completed dewatering the old pit, is forging ahead with drill/blast within the pit, and about to undertake commissioning of the plant, plus has around $16 million in reserves and another undrawn credit line of $8.0 million. And by the company's own statement yesterday its on the verge of pouring first gold! So if you can't see why I hold the view that RED remains an outstanding buy in the market place, then I suggest you should look elsewhere for a bargain. Maybe the industrial sector is more for you.
Good luck RED holders.
It looks like we have a stalemate at the moment. This is about the lightest trading after an hour that I can recall for some time! Seems like everyone is waiting for some news about commissioning, but since we have just had the quarterly maybe we won't see an announcement for a week or so re update status. I might go have a midday nap...