VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
- Start date
hey guys
thought i just pop in here to say hello to everyone esp beatles.
anyway RED just ann "Siana open pit mining contract award" and sp keep going down. large seller at 13.5. Look like me someone tryin to scare the buyers away so they can accumm cheaper. May be big holders looking to exit or shorters are playing with the market fear atm.
anyway keep up the good work guys.
yuyu
thought i just pop in here to say hello to everyone esp beatles.
anyway RED just ann "Siana open pit mining contract award" and sp keep going down. large seller at 13.5. Look like me someone tryin to scare the buyers away so they can accumm cheaper. May be big holders looking to exit or shorters are playing with the market fear atm.
anyway keep up the good work guys.
yuyu
Hi Yuyu, great to get your post here in ASF. I'm currently traveling so not able to post so regularly and just watching RED share price from afar, so not able to make informed comment about blow by blow trading as I have done previously.
I just want to make the following comments re RED share price - I am wondering if someone has got news of hole 2 assays at Mapawa and have decided its not as good as hole 1 and dropping shares. IF that is the case then they are doing so without the bigger picture about Mapawa AND more importantly about Siana:
1. RED share price based on Siana is north of 35 cents now, based on current gold price. All we need now is the finance finally approved then there is not another milestone required to initiate share price going north IMO. Once that announcement has been made then I will be buying a few more despite my finances now mostly used up buying RED previously (but IMO any share price bought around current price will be worth MORE THAN double that in the coming months!).
2. Mapawa is the cream on the share price of RED, but without it as I say above RED is worth more than 35 cps based on the current gold price. BUT hole 2 of Mapawa does not necessarily have a significant bearing on whether Mapawa will be an economic proposition in its own right, as it was drilled about 350 metres away from hole 1, and drilled at a direction at right angles to hole 1 - if hole 2 were to be mineralised to any extent it would mean the extent of Mapawa mineralisation is HUGE!!! Hole 3 is a more important hole in determining the potential down dip extension of the existing mineralisation outlined in hole 1.
As for the question re RED hedging, as I have mentioned previously, RED has previously indicated its intention to minimise hedging for Siana, although the current financing plan requires a minimal hedging of around 13,000 odd ounces (ie < 2%) of gold to be mined at Siana. IMO I would prefer RED hedge more as it will lock in considerable future profits (the only risk is delivery risk which is bugger all when the operating cost of production is US$351/oz). And it ensures that eventually RED share price will move up to and likely trade beyond its share price valuation based on DCF values.
I just want to make the following comments re RED share price - I am wondering if someone has got news of hole 2 assays at Mapawa and have decided its not as good as hole 1 and dropping shares. IF that is the case then they are doing so without the bigger picture about Mapawa AND more importantly about Siana:
1. RED share price based on Siana is north of 35 cents now, based on current gold price. All we need now is the finance finally approved then there is not another milestone required to initiate share price going north IMO. Once that announcement has been made then I will be buying a few more despite my finances now mostly used up buying RED previously (but IMO any share price bought around current price will be worth MORE THAN double that in the coming months!).
2. Mapawa is the cream on the share price of RED, but without it as I say above RED is worth more than 35 cps based on the current gold price. BUT hole 2 of Mapawa does not necessarily have a significant bearing on whether Mapawa will be an economic proposition in its own right, as it was drilled about 350 metres away from hole 1, and drilled at a direction at right angles to hole 1 - if hole 2 were to be mineralised to any extent it would mean the extent of Mapawa mineralisation is HUGE!!! Hole 3 is a more important hole in determining the potential down dip extension of the existing mineralisation outlined in hole 1.
As for the question re RED hedging, as I have mentioned previously, RED has previously indicated its intention to minimise hedging for Siana, although the current financing plan requires a minimal hedging of around 13,000 odd ounces (ie < 2%) of gold to be mined at Siana. IMO I would prefer RED hedge more as it will lock in considerable future profits (the only risk is delivery risk which is bugger all when the operating cost of production is US$351/oz). And it ensures that eventually RED share price will move up to and likely trade beyond its share price valuation based on DCF values.
Beatle:
I'm doubting if Drill 2 results is the cause. The unloading seems too calculated and drawn out over what is now a fair time period. If someone did know the results since this regular dumping has started, I would assume the report would have been out by now.
I think its a major holder slowly reducing their position, but for other reasons. From memory Anglo still has shares, so they may be just getting out in a methodical manner.
Unfortunately, the unloading is combined with a crap market environment atm, resulting in a struggling share price that is continually capped by a consistent seller.
I can't imagine the slide to continue much further, or perhaps this prediction is more of a wish than a prediction.
I'm doubting if Drill 2 results is the cause. The unloading seems too calculated and drawn out over what is now a fair time period. If someone did know the results since this regular dumping has started, I would assume the report would have been out by now.
I think its a major holder slowly reducing their position, but for other reasons. From memory Anglo still has shares, so they may be just getting out in a methodical manner.
Unfortunately, the unloading is combined with a crap market environment atm, resulting in a struggling share price that is continually capped by a consistent seller.
I can't imagine the slide to continue much further, or perhaps this prediction is more of a wish than a prediction.
Hi Auscan, thanks for your comments which I value - particularly as I'm on the road and won't be back home for a few weeks.
If you are correct about it being a bigger holder selling out (in a crap market) such as Anglo then its clearly not going to help the share price but it will give us a further opportunity to top up once it stops! (IF its Anglo then we won't know about it until the next release by RED of top 20 holders as Anglo had sold down to less then 5% so don't have to alert the market). I agree that Anglo would be the most logical holder to be selling since they have lost the prize they have been holding out for.
Why do I say it will give us an opportunity down the track to buy shares cheaply? As far as I'm concerned there are only 2 reasons why RED won't reach a share price of about 3 times its current price in the next few months - being a substantially reduced gold price or failure to get project finance.
IF the gold price remains above about US$880 then RED value for Siana is above 20 cps EVEN if the exchange rate remains at 92 cents which is unlikely!
The only threat to RED value being attained now is therefore project finance not being granted, and we will know about this within the next 5 or less weeks! (If project finance was not possible then RED could conceivably continue to development with existing cash, plus another equity raising of around $20 million or alternatively farm-out Mapawa for a large cash injection. Those are just contingencies in the event that debt is not forthcoming.)
If you are correct about it being a bigger holder selling out (in a crap market) such as Anglo then its clearly not going to help the share price but it will give us a further opportunity to top up once it stops! (IF its Anglo then we won't know about it until the next release by RED of top 20 holders as Anglo had sold down to less then 5% so don't have to alert the market). I agree that Anglo would be the most logical holder to be selling since they have lost the prize they have been holding out for.
Why do I say it will give us an opportunity down the track to buy shares cheaply? As far as I'm concerned there are only 2 reasons why RED won't reach a share price of about 3 times its current price in the next few months - being a substantially reduced gold price or failure to get project finance.
IF the gold price remains above about US$880 then RED value for Siana is above 20 cps EVEN if the exchange rate remains at 92 cents which is unlikely!
The only threat to RED value being attained now is therefore project finance not being granted, and we will know about this within the next 5 or less weeks! (If project finance was not possible then RED could conceivably continue to development with existing cash, plus another equity raising of around $20 million or alternatively farm-out Mapawa for a large cash injection. Those are just contingencies in the event that debt is not forthcoming.)
Hi Guys, IMO it is almost certainly Anglo selling down their holding as it is clear they no longer have any reason to continue to hold any shares at all. Therefore given the present market turbulence and negative sentiment, once again we are all presented with another excellent buying opportunity. I agree with Beatle's thoughts that even if the project finance does not arrive, RED has the option of simply raising more capital as I don't think they would have much trouble given the current advanced state of the project. I am purely speaking of Siana with this. We know they have already commenced drill hole 3 at Mapawa, so the drilling program will continue to assess the potential of Mapawa and we will have a far better picture in the coming weeks or months.Of course the RED management approach has generally been to not pursue any form of "sensationalism" with drill results anyway. In addition, based on the large amount of drilling at Siana, a thorough grid based approach will be undertaken with Mapawa so it will take further time to properly delineate the true potential of Mapawa. But the strategy remains to get Siana into production and thus whatever is happening with Mapawa is cream on the cake (or longer term may become the cake lol). I personally am very happy with progress, and take little notice of the SP gyrations at the moment except to use the opportunity to top up.
I note that MML has released some further very encouraging preliminary exploration results today, which again emphasises the prospectivity of the region. As we know there are many other foreign owned projects" on the go "in the Phillipines, so over time there will be much greater notice taken of the potential of the whole region.
In addition, there is a very supportive government (which is not expected to change no matter who wins the forthcoming elections) and tax concessions, plus the mining industry is one of the designated industries by government to help drive the economy. I note China has pressed the government for some loosening up of foreign ownership restrictions as well, so there is interest all round. All in all, I believe it is simply a matter of maintaining a longer term perspective, and not get worried about the short term aspects of SP, or the fallout from various other events. My only concern would be if the bottom fell out of the gold price totally, but that seems extremely unlikely given the state of the global economy. AB
I note that MML has released some further very encouraging preliminary exploration results today, which again emphasises the prospectivity of the region. As we know there are many other foreign owned projects" on the go "in the Phillipines, so over time there will be much greater notice taken of the potential of the whole region.
In addition, there is a very supportive government (which is not expected to change no matter who wins the forthcoming elections) and tax concessions, plus the mining industry is one of the designated industries by government to help drive the economy. I note China has pressed the government for some loosening up of foreign ownership restrictions as well, so there is interest all round. All in all, I believe it is simply a matter of maintaining a longer term perspective, and not get worried about the short term aspects of SP, or the fallout from various other events. My only concern would be if the bottom fell out of the gold price totally, but that seems extremely unlikely given the state of the global economy. AB
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beatle, your earlier potted history on Anglo got me thinking ..i didn't know things had been cool. I like to see cornerstone investors so its been good having them. When i saw they reduction to precisely 4.99% my thoughts were "good they want to stay in, just out of sight". My thinking now is along anderbonds, yours and auscan..i think it was a ruse so as not to scare other holders and that they have been feeding the market since then..its been from sidelines and not placed in the depth, they are careful.
It was 40mil so we may have some weeks left yet.
It was 40mil so we may have some weeks left yet.
Hi All,
From my brief review of the market this afternoon its been carnage generally again today, and strangely I was disappointed that RED didn’t go down further to follow the others! It’s a funny thing to say I guess, but IMO RED remains one of the biggest certainties for a HUGE move up some time, whether the gold price hangs around current levels or even drops appreciably to around US$1,000 – at any price above US$1,000 RED will bounce in a big way once finance has been granted and the doubters have been silenced for all time. So any weakness that we have observed in RED price now is just more opportunity for making easy money sooner or later IMO.
And thus it really doesn’t matter if it is Anglogold selling at present or even if some other insto is now calling it a day. One thing for sure, eventually the DCF valuation will become the guideline for future trading once production is around the corner, thus current RED share price of 13 cps compared with a DCF valuation of around 36cps tells me that current share price won’t stay that price once finance is approved!
Anderbond also makes some very interesting and relevant comments about Philippines as an improving destination for resource development, from the point of view of general country risk, and the focus of China moving into the country in a bigger way. Its relevant to note that up until the late 1980’s Philippines was in the top copper producing countries in the world, so its resources potential is immense, thus China clearly has a good reason to develop increasing interest in the country. And this is demonstrated further by one of its biggest gold miners Zijin Mining taking control over Tampakan and with an eye on any other resource of significance in the region.
The irony of the point that Anderbond has made is that, here we are investing in RED, an Australian company with a highly valuable Philippine gold asset, seen to be worth a discount because its not an Australian located property!!! Good old Kevin Dudd and his cronies have just demonstrated that there remains as much country risk with Australia as other countries!!! And note that RED will not be affected by any resource rent tax, but in fact will enjoy a TAX HOLIDAY for around 5 years!
I remain as confident as ever for the positive future value of RED share price, and will be buying more shares in the coming weeks!
(Please note, I am not a follower of either of the major, or for that matter minor, political parties at present, there is nothing any of them stand for at present that gives me any confidence in Australian politics!).
From my brief review of the market this afternoon its been carnage generally again today, and strangely I was disappointed that RED didn’t go down further to follow the others! It’s a funny thing to say I guess, but IMO RED remains one of the biggest certainties for a HUGE move up some time, whether the gold price hangs around current levels or even drops appreciably to around US$1,000 – at any price above US$1,000 RED will bounce in a big way once finance has been granted and the doubters have been silenced for all time. So any weakness that we have observed in RED price now is just more opportunity for making easy money sooner or later IMO.
And thus it really doesn’t matter if it is Anglogold selling at present or even if some other insto is now calling it a day. One thing for sure, eventually the DCF valuation will become the guideline for future trading once production is around the corner, thus current RED share price of 13 cps compared with a DCF valuation of around 36cps tells me that current share price won’t stay that price once finance is approved!
Anderbond also makes some very interesting and relevant comments about Philippines as an improving destination for resource development, from the point of view of general country risk, and the focus of China moving into the country in a bigger way. Its relevant to note that up until the late 1980’s Philippines was in the top copper producing countries in the world, so its resources potential is immense, thus China clearly has a good reason to develop increasing interest in the country. And this is demonstrated further by one of its biggest gold miners Zijin Mining taking control over Tampakan and with an eye on any other resource of significance in the region.
The irony of the point that Anderbond has made is that, here we are investing in RED, an Australian company with a highly valuable Philippine gold asset, seen to be worth a discount because its not an Australian located property!!! Good old Kevin Dudd and his cronies have just demonstrated that there remains as much country risk with Australia as other countries!!! And note that RED will not be affected by any resource rent tax, but in fact will enjoy a TAX HOLIDAY for around 5 years!
I remain as confident as ever for the positive future value of RED share price, and will be buying more shares in the coming weeks!
(Please note, I am not a follower of either of the major, or for that matter minor, political parties at present, there is nothing any of them stand for at present that gives me any confidence in Australian politics!).
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Let's see what happen today with gold above 1200USD currently after a carnage in Wall street..
I own RED and major gold miners....
Oliver
I own RED and major gold miners....
Oliver
Hi Oliver and All,
Well despite the continued sell-off seems that gold is now the commodity that will turn it around for gold stocks, and RED also demonstrated that it might be at its low point now prior to any announcement out re finance and Mapawa.
If gold continues to move up towards its all-time US$ price and beyond then maybe RED will be amongst all gold stocks out-performing. And RED has got so many other things going for it compared to many existing producers:
1. Many still doubt that it can get into gold production, but if finance is announced then that doubt should well and truly be gone!
2. As a potential gold producer RED continues to trade at a HUGE discount to its DCF valuation, yet most gold producers (ie those with low costs, long lives) tend to trade at a premium, not a discount!
3.Mapawa has already demonstrated its potential to be a major additional asset for RED, and has not been valued at all within its current share price, and in fact does also upgrade the value of all its other porphyry targets either within the Mapawa MPSA or the Siana MPSA (eg Madja).
As an interesting aside, in euro terms gold is now at its highest point ever! For reference to this I attach the following thread for your interest:
http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2010/May/6/America-s-gold-wake-up-call
I still think that RED will hover around the current share price until the markets re-stabilise and until finance is finally announced to the market, within the next month.
Well despite the continued sell-off seems that gold is now the commodity that will turn it around for gold stocks, and RED also demonstrated that it might be at its low point now prior to any announcement out re finance and Mapawa.
If gold continues to move up towards its all-time US$ price and beyond then maybe RED will be amongst all gold stocks out-performing. And RED has got so many other things going for it compared to many existing producers:
1. Many still doubt that it can get into gold production, but if finance is announced then that doubt should well and truly be gone!
2. As a potential gold producer RED continues to trade at a HUGE discount to its DCF valuation, yet most gold producers (ie those with low costs, long lives) tend to trade at a premium, not a discount!
3.Mapawa has already demonstrated its potential to be a major additional asset for RED, and has not been valued at all within its current share price, and in fact does also upgrade the value of all its other porphyry targets either within the Mapawa MPSA or the Siana MPSA (eg Madja).
As an interesting aside, in euro terms gold is now at its highest point ever! For reference to this I attach the following thread for your interest:
http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2010/May/6/America-s-gold-wake-up-call
I still think that RED will hover around the current share price until the markets re-stabilise and until finance is finally announced to the market, within the next month.
Hi guys, I see 3.3 million shares traded on Friday. There seems to be good demand at around the 13 to 13.5 cent mark. Just imagine if you were an institution that participated in the CR at 15.5 cents level and now have an opportunity to increase your stake at a cheaper figure. I say this because we have been told the CR was oversubscribed which I don't doubt for a moment. Given the massive increase in the "fear" index in recent days, the gold price seems likely to hold up, despite the massive shorting that is reported almost on a daily basis. Maybe the shorters will lose their shirts (thought to be around four US investment banks) and US taxpayers will once again have to bail them out. But I digress from my purpose here, as my real interest is to hope that wherever the selling is coming from, that the seller/s finish exiting their position in reasonable time. In some ways it is exasperating to see the Red SP hover around present levels but the market is the market, and there are many factors that play on the stock price. Unquestionably, eventually the fundamentals will start to prevail, so it is just a matter of time before we see Red really fire up. If a rise based on fundamentals coincides with the end of overhang selling, then we might really see the SP rocket up. Beatle has very detailed knowledge and has set out the basics of the whole project, the history, the current state of progress, and mentioned the one remaining outstanding in the form of finance. This cannot be far away so for anyone having jitters, have faith. AB
In regards to the results for #2 drill, could it be possible they are waiting for at least the results from #3 (which should be finished drilling by now) so they can provide a little bit more comprehensive report using the first 3 holes.
IMO they are not obligated to report on a single drill by drill basis, or are they?
IMO they are not obligated to report on a single drill by drill basis, or are they?
Hi Auscan, its an interesting question you pose re Mapawa #2 drillhole. As you probably are aware, under the Listing Rules RED must provide continuous disclosure and provide the market with anything market sensitive (subject to it not being of a commercially confidential nature). Thus if #2 was a dud then its questionable whether RED would need to disclose the results and whether they would want to disclose - clearly without an explanation of where exactly #2 is located with respect to the overall geophysical anomaly etc then RED would have done an injustice to the overall Mapawa project - but I believe that RED has learnt enough about the market to sufficiently explain #2with regard to its overall relevance. With that in mind I suggest the RED will put something out once the #2 assays have been received and reviewed. If that is the case then its likely that the announcement will be out in the next week or soon thereafter.
With #3, when I last inquired, about 1 1/2 weeks ago it was at about 200 metres or thereabouts, and total depth target was 800 - 1,000 metres, thus it still has a long way to go - at the time of the quarterly I think it was expected to take at least 2 months! So we won't expect any announcement soon about #3 unless it gets stuck or some other reason for it to be pulled short of target depth.
As for Anderbond's comment re selling pressure I guess the only question I have got is whether any instos are feeling the heat re the entire market and being forced to pull out of any smaller stocks, such as RED. IMO provided we get the finance and the gold price holds up then its another buying opportunity for us all! (I just want to hear that the finance is granted without any other conditions precedent then its open slather with the buying for me!).
With #3, when I last inquired, about 1 1/2 weeks ago it was at about 200 metres or thereabouts, and total depth target was 800 - 1,000 metres, thus it still has a long way to go - at the time of the quarterly I think it was expected to take at least 2 months! So we won't expect any announcement soon about #3 unless it gets stuck or some other reason for it to be pulled short of target depth.
As for Anderbond's comment re selling pressure I guess the only question I have got is whether any instos are feeling the heat re the entire market and being forced to pull out of any smaller stocks, such as RED. IMO provided we get the finance and the gold price holds up then its another buying opportunity for us all! (I just want to hear that the finance is granted without any other conditions precedent then its open slather with the buying for me!).
Current RED valuation:
Based on the following assumptions for DCF analysis I consider RED share price fundamental value as being
37.6 cps.
Gold price US$1,200
Silver price US$18.00 (this spiked up along with gold last week)
Exchange rate 88.5 c
10% discount rate
10% bank interest
A$17 million cash
97.6% beneficial interest to RED
THere is no value attributed to Mapawa, but from a different valuation basis I have suggested Mapawa is separately worth about 9cps to RED now, based on highly discounted probability factors using only first hole results, thus this gives a potential lower end value!
ie total potential current valuation for RED = 46.6 cps
Lets see what happens if either Mapawa comes in or if the finance for Siana is announced!
Personally if RED announces the finance being approved I hope that they also include a hedging through forward sales, of 70% of the open pit gold Probable Reserve ounces. This will set in stone HUGE PROFITS over the next few years, with only delivery risk which is bugger all risk knowing the operating costs and mining operation being stock standard.
Based on the following assumptions for DCF analysis I consider RED share price fundamental value as being
37.6 cps.
Gold price US$1,200
Silver price US$18.00 (this spiked up along with gold last week)
Exchange rate 88.5 c
10% discount rate
10% bank interest
A$17 million cash
97.6% beneficial interest to RED
THere is no value attributed to Mapawa, but from a different valuation basis I have suggested Mapawa is separately worth about 9cps to RED now, based on highly discounted probability factors using only first hole results, thus this gives a potential lower end value!
ie total potential current valuation for RED = 46.6 cps
Lets see what happens if either Mapawa comes in or if the finance for Siana is announced!
Personally if RED announces the finance being approved I hope that they also include a hedging through forward sales, of 70% of the open pit gold Probable Reserve ounces. This will set in stone HUGE PROFITS over the next few years, with only delivery risk which is bugger all risk knowing the operating costs and mining operation being stock standard.
Just perhaps, our unloader(s) of RED have finished unloading?
RED's broker / backers would have been monitoring who was selling and how much if any is left to sell. Have they been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the sell overhang to disappear before they stepped in to revive the share price.
I hope this is the scenario we saw today. Tmrow will confirm if the unloader has left the building ..
RED's broker / backers would have been monitoring who was selling and how much if any is left to sell. Have they been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the sell overhang to disappear before they stepped in to revive the share price.
I hope this is the scenario we saw today. Tmrow will confirm if the unloader has left the building ..
Hi auscan, Yes I was wondering about the seller too. But I am not sure if there has been enough volume pass through over the past weeks. For example if it is Anglo they still had a lot of shares to dispose of. I wonder if anyone can provide a volume total for say the past 6 weeks. An alternative thought is that there may be buying pressure emerging based on the discounted SP, gold price, and/or the possibility of a very near announcement re the finance package. AB
Hi Anderbond, with regard to an announcement imminent, I would presume that subject to Auscan's earlier point of whether a not so interesting Mapawa #2 hole would be grounds for not announcing, I would have thought that the next announcement out will be Mapawa drilling rather than the finance. I think the finance is still some weeks away, but I'm happy to be wrong and it be brought forward, lol!
As for the latest share price and events such as the general market and gold price. I believe that with the turnaround of the overall market, and RED having gone up in sympathy with that, its a great sign. To me it suggests that there is nothing sinister in the recent RED sell down, in regards to either finance or Mapawa - if either of them were a possible coming issue I don't believe we would have seen the bounce in RED along with the rest of the market.
Therefore its likely to have been nervous sellers - it could be Anglo which means we still have another opportunity to buy cheaper shares maybe if the market comes off - but I have wondered if some shares were sold by the Merrill Crowe Corp for instant profits.
For me things are looking very good (except I didn't buy any shares in the past few days!).
As for the latest share price and events such as the general market and gold price. I believe that with the turnaround of the overall market, and RED having gone up in sympathy with that, its a great sign. To me it suggests that there is nothing sinister in the recent RED sell down, in regards to either finance or Mapawa - if either of them were a possible coming issue I don't believe we would have seen the bounce in RED along with the rest of the market.
Therefore its likely to have been nervous sellers - it could be Anglo which means we still have another opportunity to buy cheaper shares maybe if the market comes off - but I have wondered if some shares were sold by the Merrill Crowe Corp for instant profits.
For me things are looking very good (except I didn't buy any shares in the past few days!).
Hi Beatle, You have raised a good point re Merrill Crowe. I had not thought of that. That is definitelya further possibility. I cannot imagine that institutions that have come onto the register in more recent times would be selling at a loss therefore the explanation must lie elsewhere. I understand from my broker that a lot of today's trades were crosses, so it is hard to get a handle on what is happening, but the volume was in line with most days rather than the volume spike we saw yesterday. I agree entirely with you that everything is in order to see the SP run a bit, or maybe a lot (lol). I am not concerned re the second Mapawa hole, as we know GE is quite conservative in his approach (he may not think so of course!) but whilst this is a good thing in many ways it means the SP does not ride any wave of emotion. I continually get announcements from MML that are clearly designed to both inform and push sentiment along, whereas this has never really been the RED approach. Nevertheless I fully believe that soon the quality of the Siana project will be seen clearly by the market, plus the Mapawa potential as time goes by. In reflecting on the sluggish performance of the SP, it seems to me that it may well be the Mapawa results that finally ignite the SP which would be ironic given that us longer term shareholders have been focussed on Siana for such a long time. One of my passions is professional cycling, and it is interesting to follow the fortunes of the current world champion, an Aussie by the name of Cadel Evans( an absolute champion in every way). If you check him out you will be amazed at his resume in what is one of the most difficult endurance sports around.There are so many things that conflict on a cyclist and prevent him from showing his absolute best everytime he sits in the saddle. But as Cadel has shown, when the quality is there, eventually you win out! This I feel is the story of RED, one of moving through periods of adversity, but always with a firm objective in sight. Despite a few setbacks along the way, the senior management and Board of RED have maintained focus on the end game. As the saying goes, the END GAME IS NIGH! There is no chance that RED will not move higher, it is simply a matter of recognition of the quality of this great little project(Siana). Mapawa may be the trigger to awaken the market to the true potential of this company. And just like Cadel stunned everyone with his World Champion victory, its onwards and upwards for RED!(IMO) AB
You make some interesting points AnderBond, and the analogy with Cadel Evans is of interest - I have watched the last 3 tour de frances with great interest and thought that last year was Cadel Evans year, so I hope that is not a bad omen (lol) for my expectations with RED! (I understand that his recent book is quite enlightening so maybe I should read it to get some inspiration for RED (have you read his autobiography?). To be honest I thought that he would not continue after last year so his recent success is a tribute to his own personal belief and desire to excel.
Back to RED, I thoroughly agree with your comments about conservatism, actually its a bit frustrating, and yet I would imagine that RED should be giving Deutsche Bank great confidence since the Feasibility Study document was very carefully prepared by highly competent consultants, and I have had word from a guy still involved on the consulting side with RED that the project work has been well put together and management are very well regarded, with expectations that the project will be very successful. From another angle, I understand that senior RED management were seen walking into Deutsche Bank headquarters in Sydney for a long session yesterday and it seems things must be in the final throes to finessing the debt finance arrangement - lets hope so!
As for Mapawa, its going to be a long drawn out story IMO, but if hole #2 surprised us all and actually had some value for the markets to consider (bearing in mind it was not targeted towards the centre of the potential orebody but at a marginal location aimed at delineating the possible boundary to economic mineralisation), then I have no doubt that Mapawa LSY project will result in a considerably increase in RED market valuation. I believe that RED will report on #2 regardless of its overall success, and that announcement shouldn’t be more than a couple more business days away.
I must admit though, that now I am really excited with this recent move in gold price to all time highs. Now my sights for RED shares is a lot higher than it was previously, and its an interesting thing to note that MML is now sitting at close to a market capitalisation of $900 million, which suggests that RED could move towards a dollar per share given it gets the finance and Mapawa makes all the right noises. Of course if it gets another bottler of a result from Mapawa#3 hole then it could exceed a dollar easily!
Back to RED, I thoroughly agree with your comments about conservatism, actually its a bit frustrating, and yet I would imagine that RED should be giving Deutsche Bank great confidence since the Feasibility Study document was very carefully prepared by highly competent consultants, and I have had word from a guy still involved on the consulting side with RED that the project work has been well put together and management are very well regarded, with expectations that the project will be very successful. From another angle, I understand that senior RED management were seen walking into Deutsche Bank headquarters in Sydney for a long session yesterday and it seems things must be in the final throes to finessing the debt finance arrangement - lets hope so!
As for Mapawa, its going to be a long drawn out story IMO, but if hole #2 surprised us all and actually had some value for the markets to consider (bearing in mind it was not targeted towards the centre of the potential orebody but at a marginal location aimed at delineating the possible boundary to economic mineralisation), then I have no doubt that Mapawa LSY project will result in a considerably increase in RED market valuation. I believe that RED will report on #2 regardless of its overall success, and that announcement shouldn’t be more than a couple more business days away.
I must admit though, that now I am really excited with this recent move in gold price to all time highs. Now my sights for RED shares is a lot higher than it was previously, and its an interesting thing to note that MML is now sitting at close to a market capitalisation of $900 million, which suggests that RED could move towards a dollar per share given it gets the finance and Mapawa makes all the right noises. Of course if it gets another bottler of a result from Mapawa#3 hole then it could exceed a dollar easily!
Hi beatle, your news re senior management being seen in Sydney is very interesting. May I ask how you know this? I too believe that a dollar or more is a distinct possibility especially if Mapawa produces further great results.
But regardless, the present SP remains something of a joke. Again today there is a little bit of buying pressure despite the SP dropping to 14.5c at the open. It may be that if Anglo are selling down that they are doing it very gradually, but it actually seems to me there is some buying pressure. All in all, I think there are some clever things going on, somebody exiting and somebody accumulating and care being shown along the way. Maybe I am completely wrong with this, but my instinct is that this is what is happening. I see Noy Noy looks home in the elections. This is what I thought would happen from the moment he overcame his reluctance and announced his candidacy. I see he promises to run an honest administration and to stamp out corruption. Good luck I say as the Phils is the Phils! AB
But regardless, the present SP remains something of a joke. Again today there is a little bit of buying pressure despite the SP dropping to 14.5c at the open. It may be that if Anglo are selling down that they are doing it very gradually, but it actually seems to me there is some buying pressure. All in all, I think there are some clever things going on, somebody exiting and somebody accumulating and care being shown along the way. Maybe I am completely wrong with this, but my instinct is that this is what is happening. I see Noy Noy looks home in the elections. This is what I thought would happen from the moment he overcame his reluctance and announced his candidacy. I see he promises to run an honest administration and to stamp out corruption. Good luck I say as the Phils is the Phils! AB