VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
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Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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I don't buy when the bid side is stacked falsely. They have already bought and want some fodder to push the price higher for them to sell to. The ones that do buy often get caught and sell at a loss in panic or hold at a paper loss till whenever.
I know.
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I'm surprised at the resilience of RED as the rest of the market tanks over these last 2 days. This did not happen during the August volatility. Would it be a fair assessment that this is due to the imminence of the Siana mine opening (last I remember, they said possibly start of September?), and that it is very unlikely RED will drop below $2 at this stage?
Or is it because unscrupulous forces are manipulating the stock to keep strong buyer pressure at the $2 mark?
Or is it because unscrupulous forces are manipulating the stock to keep strong buyer pressure at the $2 mark?
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Must have been in a fantasy world of one year in the future
Yeh it's meant to be $0.2
Yeh it's meant to be $0.2
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Yeah I must say if I woke up tommorow and RED was sitting at $2 a share I would be a very very happy person as would most in this thread execpt anybody that has been day trading them.
Intresting to see RED has finally hit 22 cents with demand at roughly 4:1 so it might not be to much longer and RED could be hitting the 30 cent bracket.
Over the last month when a lot of stocks have dropped a fair bit RED has seemed to be able to stay at evens if not actually go up when the market has been taking a hit.
Intresting to see RED has finally hit 22 cents with demand at roughly 4:1 so it might not be to much longer and RED could be hitting the 30 cent bracket.
Over the last month when a lot of stocks have dropped a fair bit RED has seemed to be able to stay at evens if not actually go up when the market has been taking a hit.
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And 24 hours later all the above orders would be up 10% right now
"Starcraftmazter
Re: RED - Red 5 Limited
Must have been in a fantasy world of one year in the future "
Are you sure its a fantasy world Starcraftmazter? Joshua fit de battle of jericho and the walls came tumbling down, lol.
i think we can say RED is now officiallly in transition - anyone who wants to get on for the ride better do so sooner than later, we are surely going to get another follow up announcement in the next weeks confirming the SAG mill is ready to turn! Todays announcement is another confirmation that things are looking good for Siana. I still think they are conservative with the first gold pour month!!!
Re: RED - Red 5 Limited
Must have been in a fantasy world of one year in the future "
Are you sure its a fantasy world Starcraftmazter? Joshua fit de battle of jericho and the walls came tumbling down, lol.
i think we can say RED is now officiallly in transition - anyone who wants to get on for the ride better do so sooner than later, we are surely going to get another follow up announcement in the next weeks confirming the SAG mill is ready to turn! Todays announcement is another confirmation that things are looking good for Siana. I still think they are conservative with the first gold pour month!!!
Hi Everyone,
Following the announcement from RED that basically said everything is progressing on schedule and for us to mark november down on our calendars, we see some movement in the SP today (up at around 22c atm).
But seeing the European debt issues becoming an ongoing concern and Deutche bank's CEO speech sounding rather pessimistic, it seems like it may be a while yet before things settle down. What concerns us in regards to that, is Switzerland's decision to peg their currency to the euro. That effectively means the old swiss may not be as safe a currency/asset class as ppl want it to be. My take on that is that more and more investors will turn to gold as a result leading to a higher (or at the very least, sustain gold prices at a higher levels). Which is fantastic news for gold buyers (and us).
If RED's rise resembles anything like MML's, we would all be happy campers sipping marhitos a few years from now. ^^. Happy to hold.
Following the announcement from RED that basically said everything is progressing on schedule and for us to mark november down on our calendars, we see some movement in the SP today (up at around 22c atm).
But seeing the European debt issues becoming an ongoing concern and Deutche bank's CEO speech sounding rather pessimistic, it seems like it may be a while yet before things settle down. What concerns us in regards to that, is Switzerland's decision to peg their currency to the euro. That effectively means the old swiss may not be as safe a currency/asset class as ppl want it to be. My take on that is that more and more investors will turn to gold as a result leading to a higher (or at the very least, sustain gold prices at a higher levels). Which is fantastic news for gold buyers (and us).
If RED's rise resembles anything like MML's, we would all be happy campers sipping marhitos a few years from now. ^^. Happy to hold.
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Hello.
I took notice of RED not too long ago, but did not buy until recently. I understand several members have bought in at much lower prices (I read through the entire thread before I decided to register and post).
I have gotten in at .21c and still think it is a great buy. Todays action is fantastic, and am very pleased to notice slight profits already rolling in.
I have seem some fairly outlandish forecasts and calculations to expect for November, some of them starting at 50c and ranging to 70c. Is this realistic?
Not sure what a marhito is but it sounds dangerous WTang. I think AB's idea of drinking RED wine is a more comfortable past time, besides you have the sediments to ponder what price we can suggest to LostHisShirt for RED, lol.
The valuation on RED is very much clouded now by gold's fluctuations, except to say that anything north of US$1,500 per ounce @ $1.05Aussie to US gives an NPV valuation around 35 cents. AND once in production most long life low cost gold producers trade at a premium to the indicated NPV valuation. What colour do you want for your shirt? I suggest RED, its the new GREEN!
The valuation on RED is very much clouded now by gold's fluctuations, except to say that anything north of US$1,500 per ounce @ $1.05Aussie to US gives an NPV valuation around 35 cents. AND once in production most long life low cost gold producers trade at a premium to the indicated NPV valuation. What colour do you want for your shirt? I suggest RED, its the new GREEN!
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I would love a RED shirt, and some RED wine - it seems the bulls are also see'ing RED. I just hope the bull doesn't kill the matador and the crowd see's RED... (trying my best to keep up with bealtes analogies.)
. . . . except that the orders in question were never actually filled, were they?
Although you are correct that these unfilled orders are up 10% right now in so far as the 3,000,000 and 5,000,000 bid have now been shifted up to 21.5c and 21c respectively. If you remove these two single orders the buy stack does not appear nearly as healthy (although to be fair it would not exactly be anaemic either).
Can't deny the positive price action today, however have to say I'm with Wysiwyg on this one. I like the RED story and have been watching for a possible entry but these kind of bids make me nervous and think twice before jumping. Will be very interesting to keep an eye on whether these bids will remain in the queue or be pulled should they start to be sold into.
. . . . except that the orders in question were never actually filled, were they?
Although you are correct that these unfilled orders are up 10% right now in so far as the 3,000,000 and 5,000,000 bid have now been shifted up to 21.5c and 21c respectively. If you remove these two single orders the buy stack does not appear nearly as healthy (although to be fair it would not exactly be anaemic either).
Can't deny the positive price action today, however have to say I'm with Wysiwyg on this one. I like the RED story and have been watching for a possible entry but these kind of bids make me nervous and think twice before jumping. Will be very interesting to keep an eye on whether these bids will remain in the queue or be pulled should they start to be sold into.
Papatee, whilst its easy for me to say I don't feel nervous about putting in a Buy order at present with those props sitting there, I suggest you think of this:
There are considerable holders of RED having more than 3 million or 5 million shares. Anyone of those could dump into those props before they had time to remove them. ie those putting in the props are prepared to buy more if forced to by a dumper! Even Matthews, who was a crazy dumper for so long it seems, is not dumping any more. I think the props just give us comfort not to sell prematurely. RED is going a lot higher from here IMO
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Beatle;
I am hearing a large sum of comparitive analysis for RED against MML. Is this even a fair comparison?
Do you find any solice in making such a comparison, and if so, why?
Hi Buckfont, and interesting idea, I will mention it to some of the guys when I catch up with them next week - I'm sure the response will be that it would take care of the first years production the way the number of daytraders coming onto the register sporadically lol.
Am I correct in understanding you own a sheep station Buckfont so I guess your backyard is fairly considerable to keep RED shares?
Hi beatle, yes after todays news, and rally, that sheep station is looking more probable or at least an acreage with a few old goats. Lol
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I wonder if i missed the boat already... mmm
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Look, in my opinion, no you have not missed it, but that stands as of right now.
The Daily chart for RED over a a 1y period shows we have tested the resistance level of Sept-Oct '10 @ .225c and hit a high today of .23c. Though it would seem that the peak has been reached, time for a trough, all indicators are telling me otherwise - and it puts me in the same dilema of wanting to unload at .225c, but I'll outline the reasons why;
Two weeks following the steep arithmetic trend,
MACD well over Zero Point making crossover below 0.01 and stands now above 0.01, pointing up indicating direction,
Stochastics lurking above 80 - again pointing up,
20 day MA outperforming 50 and 200 day MA making its cross-over late August,
Buy demand out-weighs the sell,
and volume traded today was slightly above the 20 day MA, majority buys which had it closing higher by 9.8%.
My issue is that steep arithmetic trends don't usualy work as decent support, the trend up may be intermediate-long term. Still, having said that, it is still bullish, and may see more gains by the end of the week.
I am only an amature, however I am still not opposed to topping up at this price. Again, this is only my opinion.
-DYOR
Hi All RED Followers,
Its great to see the steadily growing posters pool, and many interesting aspects of RED being discussed.
I am the first person to say I have no real understanding of chart interpretation, and I guess I am glad that I don't as I probably would have sold my shares in RED such a long time ago. I have always used my fundamental analysis to keep me rock steady, particularly during these more recent volatile times. But I admit there have been many many frustrations over the term of my holding in RED that has aged me over that period (bearing in mind I have held RED shares (or its predecessor GRN) over the past 14 years - ughhh).
I would suggest that if you do want to consider the day by day trading in RED then of course your charting takes precedence over my fundamental view of RED and the Siana project, so if you are trading short term then ignore my views perhaps.
Clearly RED is going through a transition now, from explorer/developer to gold producer. It has had many more ups and downs than most shares going through that process mainly as it has taken so darn long. And the delay due to the weather has given further reason to add doubt to it ever producing gold. (But that has given us longer term believers to buy more shares cheaper too!).
The reports are now confirming what we believe, that RED will be producing gold out of Siana within the next 2 months (maybe sooner?). I suggest if you want to look at most companies going through that transition, that most companies are trading at around its NPV valuation by the time of them going into production, but again RED due to its delays in performing remains considerably below its NPV valuation at present, whether you use current gold price or US$1,500/oz. THUS RED remains a bargain from a longer term share investment position - I use the term INVESTMENT rather than spec, as I have traded these sort of shares for a period of 40 years and have made money out of them, its spec in terms of how far they might run, but they represent good longer term investments for the most part.
As a comparative analysis I have used KCN as an example some time ago - its share trading history was compared as it was developing a gold project in the unknown region of SE Asia, in Thailand. And if you look at its share price at the time of explorer through to producer, for a long time it hung in the region of 10 - 20 - 30 cents. And see where it went to when in production finally. I think KCN was in Thailand around 12years before it produced gold at Chatree from memory.
MML however is a closer to home analogy. Although it has slightly different project characteristics compared to Siana, the Co-O project also has some similarities, in being within a similar older gold producing part of Mindanao. Both MML and RED also have strong local support and have considerable community programs for health, dental, education etc. MML's project is higher grade gold in narrow veins of quartz, all mined from underground. It therefore can produce relatively cheaply per ounce, when things are going right. So far things have gone well and MML has cruised up to a market cap around $1.5 billion!!! On a reserve base no larger than RED's.
SIana has easier open cut mining for its first 3 - 4years, which is far less risky from a mining perspective, but will not be able to produce gold at the same extremely low cost per ounce compared with Co-O, but certainly at the lower end of the operating cost spectrum compared to some lower grade open cut gold projects elsewhere.
Process wise, RED has an advantage, with a considerably larger (thus more cost-effective) processing facility compared to MML. And RED's reserve base allows for at least a 10 year production history.
My view is that RED could conceivably trade at a level way above its NPV valuation as soon as it reaches steady state production, probably early in the new year, and although it may not be completely comparable to MML in terms of market cap, it won't be too far off IF RED can improve its marketing profile, and also get on to demonstrate the potential of its gold porphyry targets at Mapawa and Siana.
RED might dip in the next few days, but if you sell out expecting to buy back in at a considerably lower price then I think you are mistaken. Maybe 1 cent or 1.5 cents below current levels, but certainly nothing like the retracements we saw a few months ago.
Its great to see the steadily growing posters pool, and many interesting aspects of RED being discussed.
I am the first person to say I have no real understanding of chart interpretation, and I guess I am glad that I don't as I probably would have sold my shares in RED such a long time ago. I have always used my fundamental analysis to keep me rock steady, particularly during these more recent volatile times. But I admit there have been many many frustrations over the term of my holding in RED that has aged me over that period (bearing in mind I have held RED shares (or its predecessor GRN) over the past 14 years - ughhh).
I would suggest that if you do want to consider the day by day trading in RED then of course your charting takes precedence over my fundamental view of RED and the Siana project, so if you are trading short term then ignore my views perhaps.
Clearly RED is going through a transition now, from explorer/developer to gold producer. It has had many more ups and downs than most shares going through that process mainly as it has taken so darn long. And the delay due to the weather has given further reason to add doubt to it ever producing gold. (But that has given us longer term believers to buy more shares cheaper too!).
The reports are now confirming what we believe, that RED will be producing gold out of Siana within the next 2 months (maybe sooner?). I suggest if you want to look at most companies going through that transition, that most companies are trading at around its NPV valuation by the time of them going into production, but again RED due to its delays in performing remains considerably below its NPV valuation at present, whether you use current gold price or US$1,500/oz. THUS RED remains a bargain from a longer term share investment position - I use the term INVESTMENT rather than spec, as I have traded these sort of shares for a period of 40 years and have made money out of them, its spec in terms of how far they might run, but they represent good longer term investments for the most part.
As a comparative analysis I have used KCN as an example some time ago - its share trading history was compared as it was developing a gold project in the unknown region of SE Asia, in Thailand. And if you look at its share price at the time of explorer through to producer, for a long time it hung in the region of 10 - 20 - 30 cents. And see where it went to when in production finally. I think KCN was in Thailand around 12years before it produced gold at Chatree from memory.
MML however is a closer to home analogy. Although it has slightly different project characteristics compared to Siana, the Co-O project also has some similarities, in being within a similar older gold producing part of Mindanao. Both MML and RED also have strong local support and have considerable community programs for health, dental, education etc. MML's project is higher grade gold in narrow veins of quartz, all mined from underground. It therefore can produce relatively cheaply per ounce, when things are going right. So far things have gone well and MML has cruised up to a market cap around $1.5 billion!!! On a reserve base no larger than RED's.
SIana has easier open cut mining for its first 3 - 4years, which is far less risky from a mining perspective, but will not be able to produce gold at the same extremely low cost per ounce compared with Co-O, but certainly at the lower end of the operating cost spectrum compared to some lower grade open cut gold projects elsewhere.
Process wise, RED has an advantage, with a considerably larger (thus more cost-effective) processing facility compared to MML. And RED's reserve base allows for at least a 10 year production history.
My view is that RED could conceivably trade at a level way above its NPV valuation as soon as it reaches steady state production, probably early in the new year, and although it may not be completely comparable to MML in terms of market cap, it won't be too far off IF RED can improve its marketing profile, and also get on to demonstrate the potential of its gold porphyry targets at Mapawa and Siana.
RED might dip in the next few days, but if you sell out expecting to buy back in at a considerably lower price then I think you are mistaken. Maybe 1 cent or 1.5 cents below current levels, but certainly nothing like the retracements we saw a few months ago.
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Beatle;
Thanks for the in-depth post in regards to RED.
To cut a long post short - when I say dumping now to buy back, 1-1.5c is considerabely sufficient for a rebuy. Because not all of us have the funds to top up for large amounts of shares - I want to play the market to increase those holdings. But I do not want to sell out of RED completely - I think that is a bad move as we have no seen full value yet, not even close.
Thanks for the in-depth post in regards to RED.
To cut a long post short - when I say dumping now to buy back, 1-1.5c is considerabely sufficient for a rebuy. Because not all of us have the funds to top up for large amounts of shares - I want to play the market to increase those holdings. But I do not want to sell out of RED completely - I think that is a bad move as we have no seen full value yet, not even close.