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VAU - Vault Minerals

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"new Operations Director, Ron Pyatt (from linkedin)was "Plant Optimisation & Commissioning Manager at BHP Billiton". Has to be same guy."

He a decent addition to the RED5 Limited team?
 
Yes, is the same Ron Pyatt. He's been on board nearly 3 months now and I think the ordered progress and co-ordination in bringing the pieces of the on-site jigsaw together (i.e. a complex challenge) smacks of someone who knows what they're doing.... if you get my drift!
 
This might present a good buying opportunity, coming back to long term high at 21c and so far respecting it. Chart later.
Anyone that says they are waiting for a pull back for an opportunity, hope you are taking advantage. If not, please let me know your short term views with RED.
Apart from soft gold prices.
It is amusing to see that gold is falling "heavily", about $50/Oz, then I get newsletters saying that a possible pullback to 1600 is on the cards. Doesn't take long for fear to take hold. I guess now that some politicians have decided to heal Europe the financial future of the world is better and we don't need gold so much.
Let's hope that the US decision provides some excitement with suggestions of further support, then RED will make an announcement, some brokers upgrade their targets and we are off again. All sounds very hopeful!

Good luck holders, things are just now getting exciting.
 
16-09-2011 4-56-01 PM retreat.png
chart shows what I am saying although it did have a bit of a look at 20c today.

So long as it respects the levels, a significant break below 21c could take some time to recover. I hold so of course remain optimistic.
 

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Glad to see you are optimistic there Mr Jeff. I onthe other hand am slightly concerned, but not overly - and having said that I think I will reach the latter level (IF) after my speculation it makes a break down to .195. Getting close to Nov' - so this price action is worrying; then again I'm paranoid...
 
Amazing up and down like a yo-yo today i dont understand how investors are selling when a mine is so close to production i will stick at it,i am in for the long haul i am sure this will work
Cheers
Des
 
Des P said:
Amazing up and down like a yo-yo today i dont understand how investors are selling when a mine is so close to production i will stick at it,i am in for the long haul i am sure this will work
Cheers
Des
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I couldn't agree more DesPiesse, but seems the market volatility and gold price fluctuations are unsteadying influences. This just makes the current price of RED a bargain for those prepared to put their money where there mouth is! I am slowly accumulating more but can't buy too many more.
 
Just a reminder to all posters.

While I understand it is exciting when you are on a share you believe will be a huge winner and you can get caught up in the hype, this forum still requires posts to have some sort of quality analysis regarding price and price targets.

A few posts are starting to fly close to the wind with regards to ramping and just poor quality posts in general.

This forum prides itself on the high standards maintained in the stock threads and we appreciate the effort our posters put into their posts, so please lets keep this level up. There are plenty of other forums around if you just want blatant ramping & back slapping, make you feel good about your investment posts.
 
nomore4s said:
Just a reminder to all posters.

While I understand it is exciting when you are on a share you believe will be a huge winner and you can get caught up in the hype, this forum still requires posts to have some sort of quality analysis regarding price and price targets.

A few posts are starting to fly close to the wind with regards to ramping and just poor quality posts in general.

This forum prides itself on the high standards maintained in the stock threads and we appreciate the effort our posters put into their posts, so please lets keep this level up. There are plenty of other forums around if you just want blatant ramping & back slapping, make you feel good about your investment posts.
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Just to avoid confusion, especially for the sake of Nomore4s, I provide my fundamental valuation of RED's share of Siana (ie 97.6%), based on 10% discount rate, with the following values used:
Gold US$1,500
Silver US$35.00
Exchange rate USD/AUD $1.02

RED equivalent value per share NPV 39 cents!!!

You may call that getting carried away with the hype. You may call it ramping. But its based on the base case Bankable Feasibility Study cash flow model.

That is how I base my opinion on RED, that it is trading below 50% of its fundamental value on current metal prices/exchange rate.

As I mentioned previously RED has been caught up with the general malaise of the market and uncertainty with the outlook for future gold price, but in my view (you can call it ramping if you want) once RED begins gold production, due in November this year (around 8 weeks time) it will likely begin to trade at a higher price if it comes online at anything like base case forecasts, and if/once it assumes steady state production could conceivably trade at a premium to the indicated NPV valuation.
 
beatle said:
Just to avoid confusion, especially for the sake of Nomore4s, I provide my fundamental valuation of RED's share of Siana (ie 97.6%), based on 10% discount rate, with the following values used:
Gold US$1,500
Silver US$35.00
Exchange rate USD/AUD $1.02

RED equivalent value per share NPV 39 cents!!!

You may call that getting carried away with the hype. You may call it ramping. But its based on the base case Bankable Feasibility Study cash flow model.

That is how I base my opinion on RED, that it is trading below 50% of its fundamental value on current metal prices/exchange rate.

As I mentioned previously RED has been caught up with the general malaise of the market and uncertainty with the outlook for future gold price, but in my view (you can call it ramping if you want) once RED begins gold production, due in November this year (around 8 weeks time) it will likely begin to trade at a higher price if it comes online at anything like base case forecasts, and if/once it assumes steady state production could conceivably trade at a premium to the indicated NPV valuation.
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Nice post Beatle; tyvm.

In regards to Technicals - todays 20c close is a worry. Though we have not seen a 195c Bid in quite some time, this uptrend lost a heck of a lot of momentum an currently testing just above the .195c short term support level.

However, I should advise that there seems to be a great deal of offloading by a large holder, possibley an insto. This would probably account for the high volume of sales into bids. At the same time, we have an algorithmic accumulator who wishes not to pay over .205c for the stock also.

My short term outlook is grim - I don't think we will see another 24c peak in quite some time - and with production only 8 rought weeks away and gold steady within its trading range, the current activity is slightly concerning.

However, on an upside - I will also divulge my opinion to prospective buyers in saying that this may indeed be the last oppertunity one is going to get at this price. I myself have topped up a fair amount but not equaling to some of the larger holders on this thread, such as fastbuck, and beatle - who have been extremely supportive and informative during this exciting period.

My pesonal target is 28c, regardless of valuation. Though I may change my prospects based on the volatility in the hopes that I mnay be able to snag some small profits due to range bound activity.

Please, guys - take note of the key words here. "Opinion" is meaningless until you decide it is meaningful. Don't get financial advice from online forums.
 
The other channel alerted on new Top20 out............
In the last month we can see Macbank vehicle Equitas increase by 12m and the Smorgon family vehicle Escor bought 6 m.
 
Does anyone have any thoughts about whether tonight's decision by the Fed is being bet into RED's share price, and if so then which way?

It seems to me a lot of the gold juniors haven't had any real direction in the last couple of weeks, and it feels somewhat like the market is waiting to see what the Fed will do, even though there is no talk of QE3.
 
Starcraftmazter said:
Does anyone have any thoughts about whether tonight's decision by the Fed is being bet into RED's share price, and if so then which way?

It seems to me a lot of the gold juniors haven't had any real direction in the last couple of weeks, and it feels somewhat like the market is waiting to see what the Fed will do, even though there is no talk of QE3.
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RED has been fairly resiliant during these key points and news breaks. Around the time of the last Bernanke speech, RED was still uptrending at a fast momentum - seems to have slowed down now but the trend is still in tact.

I think the key players in the market would be swayed by such things. A few have offloaded a large amount but volatility is still minimum.
 
It is a little bit of a shame, though I'm still optimistic, that the price has dropped below 20c to hit a low of 19c before mid-day.

There is your answer, Star. After lasts night debarkle we saw the nullification of the uptrend. Unfortunately now one will have to wait until Nov' to get some decent profits - or sell now at a loss... Instos have increased their holdings slightly, some decreased, and retail buyers arn't paying more than .195c - .205c for this stock.
 
Interesting day today for RED, being up 2.5% at one stage, ending down 5%. For the first time of observing this stock i saw more sellers than buyers, which is quite a shocking sight for me.

I don't believe this is because RED is less attractive of an investment, just a reflection of the overall market - and thus, the change has been very significant. Even during significant drops in the last few months, there were still around 2 buyers for every seller in RED, but now the buying pressure is really quite depressed.

Depending on what happens with the gold price, I think it's quite possible RED will drop further, as nonsensical as it may seem. I am definitely looking to buy in again at this stage. I think the only event which could significantly upset RED's share price is if gold underwent a very major correction. But even still, RED's production costs are so low (compared to numerous other gold minors), that it's still a very attractive company - but of course it will be worth less if that does end up being the case.


For a long while now, we have had a bad world economy and money printing. Now we have a worse economy and no money printing, so it is easy to see why gold & gold plays are under such pressure. I think once the situation surrounding gold and it's direction becomes clear, we will again see buyers return. Once gold stabalises and establishes a trend, will I think be a good time to be holding.


Now can someone tell me if I'm right on this - assuming all else being equal, in the event that the Australian dollar starts to go down against the US, RED should be worth more?
 
It is a worry to see the buying pressure deminish over night. This could very well be the result of a consensus via a majority of retail investors. Perhaps, and it is a long shot, they took the down momentum as a sign to pull out and wait for it to settle at a lesser price. Though, it did not stop the very first trader of the day snapping up almost a million units, perhaps more.

Your theory is not non-sensical at all. At this rate I've had to change my prospects on this stock, lower my target and strap in for the ride. I believe the price will fall further, but not too much further.

Sorry to make you read through all that only to tell you that I have no answer to your question regarding AUD/USD and its effect on RED's SP.
 
No need to panic guys......RED has strong fundamentals, an excellent managment team, 10 weeks from production, money in the bank.
Just sit it out I say.
This xmas will be a grand time for eating seafood and drinking fine wine :)
I have bought this one up in recent times and have no intention of selling any time soon.
I have a planned sell of 60 cents.
I think that gold will hold between $1750 and $1850 over the next month
Hold your pants up and just give a sexy grin :D
 
Some fairly sick developments in the world financial markets seems to be the short term reason why RED is coming under selling pressure, and yet the fundamentals and facts speak for themselves re RED as a solid investment for the medium term - of course I'm disturbed that I could buy more shares now at 17.5 cents than I did a short while ago at 23.5 cents but I won't be dropping any shares now, just wish I had more cash to buy more! I'm with you Dougs Antiques on your view of hanging out till production and profits begin!

And Starcraftmazter well picked with the aussie dollar about it collapsing! Just to confirm what this means for RED:
1. Its major capital spend is over, which were priced in US dollars. Its paying pesos for labour so operating costs for labour are low anyways.
2. The gold revenues will of course increase, being based on Aussie dollar gold price.
3. Overseas insto's can now buy RED shares, priced in aussie dollars (or cents!) at a discount to what the price was, even after discounting the share price.

Thus the drop in aussie dollar currency makes RED an even more compelling argument if you believe that it will produce gold as expected in about 8 weeks time!

I aint dropping a share!!!

(And who is to know that the gold price will fall much further now, even though my valuation is based on US1,500/oz, also noting the aussie dollar is hedging that price to some extent).
 
Dougs Antiques said:
No need to panic guys......RED has strong fundamentals, an excellent managment team, 10 weeks from production, money in the bank.
Just sit it out I say.
This xmas will be a grand time for eating seafood and drinking fine wine :)
I have bought this one up in recent times and have no intention of selling any time soon.
I have a planned sell of 60 cents.
I think that gold will hold between $1750 and $1850 over the next month
Hold your pants up and just give a sexy grin :D
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Wow man! I remember you posting your skepticism a few weeks ago - you sure have changed your tune. It is rather encouraging - and I do agree; great fundamentals and a great oppertunity to top up! I have picked up some more at 0.175c this morning on open trying to average down.

Now, may I ask - why are you planning a sell off target at 60c? That seems rather high and I have no doubt that we wil get a fair value, however current conditions may very well be priced in. Anyway - I sincerely hope you get your target, make a bundle, and eat all the Scampi's you can eat! I'll meet you there :D
 
LostMyShirt said:
Wow man! I remember you posting your skepticism a few weeks ago - you sure have changed your tune. It is rather encouraging - and I do agree; great fundamentals and a great oppertunity to top up! I have picked up some more at 0.175c this morning on open trying to average down.

Now, may I ask - why are you planning a sell off target at 60c? That seems rather high and I have no doubt that we wil get a fair value, however current conditions may very well be priced in. Anyway - I sincerely hope you get your target, make a bundle, and eat all the Scampi's you can eat! I'll meet you there :D
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Hi all, I did say that I would be back in at 21 cents which I done and bought more as it came down.
RED is nearing its pinicle (production) in a very short time, hence the insto buying recently...if its good enough for them its good enough for me.
Im not concerned about the economic climate as these type of situations almost always make instos and other investors turn to gold (the age old currency).
As for my sell at 60 cents ATM RED is valued at 49 cents (Beatles valuation...who in my opinion knows more about RED than most) Im of the opinion that RED will see a bounce to 40ish cents in December and 50ish cents in January with peaks at around 60 cents late january.
Mid November to mid December will be HUGE for RED ...Just my opinion, all I am saying is to hold on if you can because this will be a good time for RED holders.
Mods call this ramping if you like biut RED has ticked all of the boxes and is fundamentally set to take off like a "LITTLE RED ROCKET", The funamentals speak for themselves.
As always DYOR
Regards
 
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