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VAU - Vault Minerals

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Maybe this will be a non-chartists description of technical trading characteristics of RED share trading, if so then I ask all you technical traders for your forgiveness, lol.

What RED has suffered from is trading to higher levels and building a bid base, and then getting swamped by a dumper. It has exasperated me in the past few months, and actually caused me to stop buying as many more shares than I would have otherwise done. I did wonder if it was an insto during this time, but since it was not accompanied by ASX releases from substantial shareholders I assumed it was not from such a group. Yesterdays announcement suggests that it was probably Matthews doing the dumping.

Now the test: IF RED doesn't get dumped on like it has been, and if it can break above 21 cents, then my view is that maybe Matthews dumping is done for now. If so then RED might transition to closer to its NPV valuation, at least to around mid-30's sooner than the first gold pour in November!

Go RED go, UP!
 
I see red was also on Your Money Your Call last night and the guys at fat prophets said they have put a buy on red. There report is FAT-MIN-288 31 Aug 2011 but I am not a member so I can not see what there report/valuation contains.

The Buy/Sell ratio on red is back to about 4:1 this morning so it will be intresting to see if they get much volume today.
 
Hi all RED club members. Hi Doug. It was ashame you had to sell so soon. Maybe you have bought back in now that we have breached the 20 cent mark.

Hi A.B. Thanks for the insight:). Ive really got to get off the XXXX and start drinking RED wine. Cause I'm not seeing a whole lot in a dark brown bottle. Maybe if i tipped it in a glass, that might help, lol. Fancy just bumping into G.E. My bet is you had a counter lunch, was Beatle there? lol. Things are looking really nice at the moment. Great share price, lots of goings on at Siana, and the obvious GOLD pour thats just around the corner.

Beatle i hope for our sake, Mathews have finished there dumping (if it was them of course) and are now happy with what is left. I did notice just a few minutes ago that we had nearly dumped all at 21 cents, then up popped another million or so. Maybe I'm just looking to far into it or maybe the dumping is yet to continue.

Just my thoughts, but come on RED, Break the 21 cents, so we can break the 22.5 cents.

Go RED Go, cheers Moit
 
Hi Moit, seems we have seen a dump as we both alluded to, but of course no one can be sure its the same bandit - someone might be just taking up the slack for their own purposes!

From a source on site I spoke with this morning I understand that the Siana development is progressing well and should achieve the rescheduled timeframe for commissioning due to good weather and activities benefitting by hoards of labour onsite.

The sharetrading activity seems to move along to a different theme and agenda, regardless of the fact we are moving ever-closer to first pour of gold.
 
beatle said:
Hi All RED followers, and some interesting comments from new posters, the more the merrier!

Yes Mgm1a, its an interesting announcement today re Matthews, apparently having dropped a mere hundred odd million shares over the past 6 months or so. Its amazing that such a time-delayed release could possibly occur unless there is something "different" about the transactions etc, I get the feeling it might be a legal issue as to how a holding is interpreted by ASIC. Although I'm not sure how exactly the actual trading has occurred I wouldn't mind betting it goes some way to explaining the strange trading that we see with RED at times - and it also makes me wonder how at times the share trading might be masking the chartists interpretation of the stock (just to throw a wobbly into the charts lol!). But its a pretty good looking chart at present I would say (its going UP lol). I guess we are at the tipping edge into new territory but knowing the stage of the development I'm betting the house that its going to push higher in the coming month unless the gold price crashes!!!

I don't have any issue with Matthews selling down, if in fact they have, as they held too many shares for my liking, and its probably been the reason the share price suffered as they sold down in the past months - thus its a good news story that they can't influence the stock price as much although their current holding remains considerable. I note also that Matthews "personal" account, lol, of 20,000 shares is an increase from zero, does that mean he remains confident about RED to the extent of buying an entire 20,000 shares, lol?

I believe that RED, now tipped as a Buy with a target of 46 cents (Evans) or 36 cents (Belldirect) take your pick, is moving into the transition as it moves ever closer to production.

AB I look forward to catching up with you at the mine opening, and sharing a RED or two.

I hope for his sake Fastbuck has revised his target upwards otherwise we may have seen the last of our great old posting mate now that its hit 20 cents!
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Hi Beatle, i still have my holding after reading some of the reports being posted i will wait and see if we do get into the 40-50 range...volume was good again today still amazes me how many are still keen to sell so close to the finish line .....
 
I think a lot of the sellers are just traders like me ATM.
Im very unsure about leaving my cash in the market overnight in this volitile market.
As for RED they did have a fair run today and have a more than fair chance of going over 21 cents tomorrow in my opinion.
There seems to be some solid intrest but you must remember with volume there must be another million traders like me at the moment that dont want an order sitting overnight so will sell by close (double volume buy in and sell out the same day).
I believe that there will be another dip and I want the cash at hand to take advantage of it.
ATM im trading daily and being quite sucessfull picking up about 2K a day doing so (on average)
Best of luck to RED holders and I could possibly be back in tomorrow if the signs are there on open or soon after.
 
After the Mathews announcement I noticed the number of shares on sale dropped from around 9m to 6m in the last couple of days. Highly interesting whether this will cause the sp to accelerate in it's appreciation.

I'm with you Dougs Antiques. I've bought and sold twice this week (with good results), and will probably continue to do so for the time being.

I'm rather torn about the possibility of another market mini-crash due to any number of events any day now, and the possibility of a jump in the sp due to the inevitable announcement.

Watching RED by the minute.
 
hi beatle and others

the mathews sell down is all tied in with BOAC's special asx exemption from having to report their holdings - imo, they have been using their holdings via either merrill's or mathews for shorting

look at the latest '604' ann - holder of relevant interest - mathews

as opposed to..........registered holder of relevant interest - BOAC

when one looks at the number of shares on issue, we can see that the volumes traded are miniscule - many have held tight whilst the big boys play their shorting games in order to catch those weak hands

gotta remember that gold isn't treated like other commodities and the fundamentals are not a straight forward supply and demand scenario

why else has gold equities not kept with the pace of bullion? - 'cos the market treats gold moreso as a currency

if other goldies are any sort of guide, we should see the sp appreciation as we get closer to production - then of course, the potential huge upside from further siana exploration - not to mention the prophyry style system at mapawa
 
Hi Fatsoh, and a most informative post, you make some most relevant comments and your observations re BOA etc seem to be spot on - and it also demonstrates how sophisticated players can make a mockery of the ASIC/ASX regulators law/rules - I can't understand why the authorities don't make it more explicit as to the beneficial holder rather than the registered owner etc. I believe that Matthews beneficial holding and lack of reporting over the past months probably remains outside of the rules and most certainly outside of the intention of the rules regarding share ownership, regardless.

Good to know you are still involved Fastbuck, not that you will be enjoying it coming off the boil in the past day from the high of 21 cents. But we have seen these dips so much, I have no issues with my own holdings temporarily dropping in value despite it should be much higher. Its almost near the end of the waiting now for that first gold bar, and then the real exciting times of monthly profits will see RED as a genuine profitable gold mining company.

Sorry to overlook VKDirectors interesting comment about Fat Prophets Buy Recommendation for RED yesterday. I wonder if someone would be happy to copy the recommendation on here? Was there a price target associated with it?

I'm interested to hear of the increasing number of daytraders stepping into RED - if you can make $2,000 per day I can't blame you DougsAntiques, but I'm sure I would be losing that amount if I changed my investing strategy!
 
Hi there beatle,

Any idea whether RED intends to issue a Gold ounce to commemorate RED`s first gold pour in a similar way that Integra did? T`would be good to add to the collection.

Am still buying and although haven`t put the house on it, a large part of the backyard is there. :)
 
Hi Buckfont, and interesting idea, I will mention it to some of the guys when I catch up with them next week - I'm sure the response will be that it would take care of the first years production the way the number of daytraders coming onto the register sporadically lol.

Am I correct in understanding you own a sheep station Buckfont so I guess your backyard is fairly considerable to keep RED shares? :)
 
beatle said:
Hi Buckfont, and interesting idea, I will mention it to some of the guys when I catch up with them next week - I'm sure the response will be that it would take care of the first years production the way the number of daytraders coming onto the register sporadically lol.

Am I correct in understanding you own a sheep station Buckfont so I guess your backyard is fairly considerable to keep RED shares? :)
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I look forward to their response beatle. I`ll put my hand up to buy a few if it eventuates.

As to the sheep station, alas, just a humble 1/4 acre, but more than enough for the stash
 
beatle said:
Hi Fatsoh, and a most informative post, you make some most relevant comments and your observations re BOA etc seem to be spot on - and it also demonstrates how sophisticated players can make a mockery of the ASIC/ASX regulators law/rules - I can't understand why the authorities don't make it more explicit as to the beneficial holder rather than the registered owner etc. I believe that Matthews beneficial holding and lack of reporting over the past months probably remains outside of the rules and most certainly outside of the intention of the rules regarding share ownership, regardless.

Good to know you are still involved Fastbuck, not that you will be enjoying it coming off the boil in the past day from the high of 21 cents. But we have seen these dips so much, I have no issues with my own holdings temporarily dropping in value despite it should be much higher. Its almost near the end of the waiting now for that first gold bar, and then the real exciting times of monthly profits will see RED as a genuine profitable gold mining company.

Sorry to overlook VKDirectors interesting comment about Fat Prophets Buy Recommendation for RED yesterday. I wonder if someone would be happy to copy the recommendation on here? Was there a price target associated with it?

I'm interested to hear of the increasing number of daytraders stepping into RED - if you can make $2,000 per day I can't blame you DougsAntiques, but I'm sure I would be losing that amount if I changed my investing strategy!
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Hi Beatle,

I have a copy but am not sure about the legal ramifications if it is posted up here for everyone to see, I could however pass you a copy through other means? There is no price target on it, they don't seem to operate in that function. FP introduced me to the stock.
 
HI Skip1jz and thanks for the offer re Fat Prophets RED commentary. I was more interested to hear of target price as clearly all analysts appear to be raising their target prices due to preparedness to assume gold price remaining higher for longer periods - earlier any targets were based on gold falling back to US$1,000 and below, thus the 26 - 27 cent estimates is now old news, and updates assume prices for RED more than mid-30 cents due to favourable outlook for sustained higher gold prices.
 
Hello friends! I'd like to ask for some further indication on future share price for RED. I originally bought into RED a few months ago based on it's current price at the time, the fact that it had been much higher, and it was yetvto produce gold. So far I have made some money with it, usually I take my profits and run, but it seems that RED is a good bet in these times.

What I'm wondering though is how the share price will move into the future. If we're talking about target prices of .30-.50 for RED I assume given the current price activity of RED that this is a realistic price for RED in the short term? What happens to a stock like RED long term after they start producing gold? If the price of gold continues to rise I assume RED would also rise, but other than that does the share price generally continue to rise substantially? Do companies like RED pay dividends once they are established and producing gold?

I'm not looking for advice, justba general idea of what the share price of a company like this does over 1-5, 5-10 year period.
 
chrisJH - any sorts of permutations happen - some give divies most very small - what stops most is high costs or hedging - RED has neither so looking good. check out MML graph as its a neighbour and while sustantially bigger does give a clue to re-rating that we are looking for.

All RED Team- check out latest Top 20 - new shareholder Equitas Nominees with 27m (2.1%) is a Macbank vehicle - nice to see more confirmation from the professionals
 
Wysiwyg said:
Typical 'gold to reach $5000 / ounce" story. Always happens to entice that thrust up. Right now either a double top or smash the 2k.
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Disregarding the prices quoted, I found the reasoning for the rise in gold outlined far more interesting. ZH is also not a spruiker site in the first place.
 
mgm1a said:
chrisJH - any sorts of permutations happen - some give divies most very small - what stops most is high costs or hedging - RED has neither so looking good. check out MML graph as its a neighbour and while sustantially bigger does give a clue to re-rating that we are looking for.

All RED Team- check out latest Top 20 - new shareholder Equitas Nominees with 27m (2.1%) is a Macbank vehicle - nice to see more confirmation from the professionals
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Great observation Mgm1a. And most likely that there will be more instos forced onto the register once RED moves up in capitalisation around the time of it producing gold, or a bit later once it enters the top 300 Australian companies - its liquidity is a positive factor in that regard.

Chris, what is exciting about RED from a longer term point of view is that it will be a long-life low cost gold producer with substantial positive cash flow expected from Siana, which will ensure it fully evaluates its big porphyry targets, not just the LSY prospect at the Mapawa MPSA but also within the the other parts of thatMPSA plus the Siana MPSA.

Another factor to consider is that gold producers with long-life low cost gold production generally trade at a premium to the underlying fundamental valuation. RED remains at a discount currently to the current gold price due to:
1. Its still to produce gold, thus needs to confirm the operation is working appropriately in accordance with feasibility projections of cost, throughput, grade, gold recovery - but the Siana gold production facility is stock standard and shouldnot present any serious issues. It was dogged by extreme rainfall conditions early on in the development thus has been affected by that delay in production. Now production is getting very close!
2. Gold price is an issue - at what price should someone predict for cash flow forecasts, esp as Mgm1a points out RED is unhedged at the moment.

If RED were to start producing in accordance with expectations then it could very easily move towards 50 cents fairly quickly IMO
 
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