I love optimism... It makes getting up in the morning feel a little bit better..:iagree:
VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
- Start date
I love optimism... It makes getting up in the morning feel a little bit better..:iagree:
- Joined
- 20 May 2011
- Posts
- 1,544
- Reactions
- 1
Can you predict the market? Because I can't
But either way, once the mine is completed, this piece of news will obviously far outweigh what is happening in the market. Until then however, I feel that we are at the market's mercy.
Hi Desjosie, i'm glad the comment helps with your getting out of bed, now its up to RED to deliver the cash! In fact i'm getting more confident that its only a short time away as each sunny day that goes by at minesite brings us 1 day closer to first gold production.
The cash flow valuation which suggests RED share price 3+ times more than it currently is, WILL likely be an under-estimate of future share price IF the project performs as per feasibility study expectations...
The cash flow valuation which suggests RED share price 3+ times more than it currently is, WILL likely be an under-estimate of future share price IF the project performs as per feasibility study expectations...
- Joined
- 20 May 2011
- Posts
- 1,544
- Reactions
- 1
Read today on MB that gold prices are likely to correct to 1400 in the next 2-3 months. This could play really well with the timing of gold production of RED, so I think it would be good to top up investments in 1-2 months time.
Purely speculative of course. Fun times ahead for sure
Purely speculative of course. Fun times ahead for sure
Hi Guys, The "Greek disease" looks like it is spreading if the Friday night news on Italian banks is anything to go by. Can't help wondering if we are going to see a another global recession looming next year. Risk aversion has again become the order of the day, and it looks like the A$ might go back to US$ parity or below. Should be good for gold and Aussie gold stocks in time (yay RED!). AB
- Joined
- 20 May 2011
- Posts
- 1,544
- Reactions
- 1
You guys catch the announcement today?
Interesting decision, I wonder if it's related to the Greece problems and Deutsche Bank needing to raise capital in order to cover it's losses for the potential and looming Greek default?
Needless to say, I'm sure many will be happy to learn the source of the downward pressure on RED as of late.
Interesting decision, I wonder if it's related to the Greece problems and Deutsche Bank needing to raise capital in order to cover it's losses for the potential and looming Greek default?
Needless to say, I'm sure many will be happy to learn the source of the downward pressure on RED as of late.
Hi Starcraftmazter,
Its an interesting announcement regarding the drop in substantial shareholdings, but how it relates exactly to RED shareholdings is unclear. DBA refers to it being a reduction is holdings held as collateral, thus whether there are more shares to come is hard to say, and who holds the shares directly is also unknown, other than a nominee company held some of them.
I take heart from the new announcement that the recently appointed director, who is a mining engineer by background, has bought 250,000 shares. Thus he must be confident things are working out well on the ground. That is a very real vote of confidence for the project.
250,000 shares? Not really a kings ransom Beatle. If DBA keeps dumping their remaining 70 odd million shares the sp wont be going anywhere for awhile. That is more of a concern yes?
Hopefully they're selling because they need the money.
Happy to sit on the fence for now.
Hi Jancha, good to see you are sitting watching, even if you are not yet ready to buy.
Just to take you up on a few points, but also to see that its good to know that DBA put in another notice confirming the further reduced holding as of 24 June 2011. It may not be the end of it all, but at least its coming down slowly (as is the share price!).
I agree that its time to watch RED rather than lash out and aggressively buy at the moment, better to make sure that the shares are completely run down!
As for the 250,000 shares recently bought by the new non-exec director. I agree its not a huge holding, but it is still a $30,000 dollars investment, putting his view before us all effectively that the project is coming along well. He is a career mining engineer, he has done his own due dilligence at this late stage of the development and clearly must consider that the project is coming along, finally! To me its a significant statement of how he considers things are moving on. You might not see it that way, but me as a shareholder takes a lot of comfort from it.
My view remains fairly boringly obvious, that the valuation of Siana is completely out of kilter with the trading, and perhaps the UNsophisticated shareholder behind the DBA notices has forced it to this bargain basement level whilst the market is also very unsteady. But at the right time, RED share price will begin its bounce to a much higher level. IF Siana were to perform anything like the feasibility study outcome then RED share price will move towards 30 cents IMO! The exciting thing is that each day that goes by brings us closer to that outcome, and whilst I have stopped buying frantically at the moment since it became clear that an Unsophisticate was unloading, I will add further to my considerable (relative to my overall investments, that is) holding in the coming months.
I do want to add, that this episode with the DBA unloading, proves to me once more, how a disgrace it is that ASX Listing Rules allow for placements to be made to so called "Sophisticated" Investors who it should be termed are more "Reckless Opportunists" who panic once they drop shares below their favoured buy-in price!
RED will recover, and in fact will provide us further opportunity to make money in the coming months in my view!
Just to take you up on a few points, but also to see that its good to know that DBA put in another notice confirming the further reduced holding as of 24 June 2011. It may not be the end of it all, but at least its coming down slowly (as is the share price!).
I agree that its time to watch RED rather than lash out and aggressively buy at the moment, better to make sure that the shares are completely run down!
As for the 250,000 shares recently bought by the new non-exec director. I agree its not a huge holding, but it is still a $30,000 dollars investment, putting his view before us all effectively that the project is coming along well. He is a career mining engineer, he has done his own due dilligence at this late stage of the development and clearly must consider that the project is coming along, finally! To me its a significant statement of how he considers things are moving on. You might not see it that way, but me as a shareholder takes a lot of comfort from it.
My view remains fairly boringly obvious, that the valuation of Siana is completely out of kilter with the trading, and perhaps the UNsophisticated shareholder behind the DBA notices has forced it to this bargain basement level whilst the market is also very unsteady. But at the right time, RED share price will begin its bounce to a much higher level. IF Siana were to perform anything like the feasibility study outcome then RED share price will move towards 30 cents IMO! The exciting thing is that each day that goes by brings us closer to that outcome, and whilst I have stopped buying frantically at the moment since it became clear that an Unsophisticate was unloading, I will add further to my considerable (relative to my overall investments, that is) holding in the coming months.
I do want to add, that this episode with the DBA unloading, proves to me once more, how a disgrace it is that ASX Listing Rules allow for placements to be made to so called "Sophisticated" Investors who it should be termed are more "Reckless Opportunists" who panic once they drop shares below their favoured buy-in price!
RED will recover, and in fact will provide us further opportunity to make money in the coming months in my view!
- Joined
- 14 December 2009
- Posts
- 882
- Reactions
- 1
I have been watching your discussions in the last while and thought I would add a chart to make the place a little more colourful.
3 year, weekly candle.
Exciting times for this stock
Good luck
3 year, weekly candle.
Exciting times for this stock
Good luck
Great to see your post Mr Jeff (and the pretty coloured chart!).
I would love to hear your views on the chart if you have any?
Once this selldown is complete I am confident that RED will be a screaming BUY! Maybe with the end of June we have already seen the lowest of the lows at 11 cents? But who knows which Reckless Opportunists remain holding that want to unload!
All I know is that eventually the trading caused by this selldown (which has dominated the share price lately) will turn upwards when the market is finally convinced that the project is about to start producing gold - and if it turns out to be along the lines of the BFS then its going to be an exciting time ahead.
I would love to hear your views on the chart if you have any?
Once this selldown is complete I am confident that RED will be a screaming BUY! Maybe with the end of June we have already seen the lowest of the lows at 11 cents? But who knows which Reckless Opportunists remain holding that want to unload!
All I know is that eventually the trading caused by this selldown (which has dominated the share price lately) will turn upwards when the market is finally convinced that the project is about to start producing gold - and if it turns out to be along the lines of the BFS then its going to be an exciting time ahead.
- Joined
- 14 December 2009
- Posts
- 882
- Reactions
- 1
Well for the chart I would say that there is definitely some building interest with that increased volume that was highlighted.
Blind Freddy can see that the 11c level is extremely important and if this is broken then it may be quite upsetting to the holders (who became "long term" in December last year when the price showed a double top) !
With the point of the project and the POG it is a chance each way, the most critical thing being that there are no hold ups to production and no major drops in the gold price. I would expect that even reasonably minor teething could see a renewed bit of selling.
It could be a great trade from 11c with a stop at 9.7 or so although of course I do not advise anyone to buy or sell anything, but if you do buy, have an exit strategy.
Also, POG will be something of a consideration now that it has shown a clear break of the 1500 level. BE CAREFUL AND DON'T FALL IN LOVE!
Blind Freddy can see that the 11c level is extremely important and if this is broken then it may be quite upsetting to the holders (who became "long term" in December last year when the price showed a double top) !
With the point of the project and the POG it is a chance each way, the most critical thing being that there are no hold ups to production and no major drops in the gold price. I would expect that even reasonably minor teething could see a renewed bit of selling.
It could be a great trade from 11c with a stop at 9.7 or so although of course I do not advise anyone to buy or sell anything, but if you do buy, have an exit strategy.
Also, POG will be something of a consideration now that it has shown a clear break of the 1500 level. BE CAREFUL AND DON'T FALL IN LOVE!
Most appreciative of your thoughts Mr Jeff and yes I agree that it would be a difficult pill to swallow if it got below 11 cents.
The question I have in my mind is whether the previous holder that is now not a substantial holder (as per the DBA announcement) remains holding for a period or will continue to drop shares in the coming weeks. If they continued to pester the market with sales it could sit in the current range for a few weeks before their sells are finally fillled. In fact I hope they keep up the selling until they are all out, then we won't be affected by more selling once the project is close to commissioning.
As for your thoughts on the possibility of teething problems at commencement, this is always a threat, but in fact most standard gold CIP/CIL plants tend to come on line with the odd small issue but rarely anything that holds up gold production thereafter - bearing in mind that most projects go via this BFS route and therefore have a considerable amount of metallurgical testing before the plant is designed (as has this Siana project).
With the start of the mine, maybe the biggest issue is not the open pit but rather the start up of the underground operation in year 3/4, although if the rain will always be a threat to mine production during the wet season (which seemed to continue for 5 - 6 months this year!).
If the POG falls away somewhat, my view is that it will limit the upside rather than force it down further from here - note that the BFS was developed off a gold price of US$800/oz and at anything above around A$1,200 it makes fantastic yearly returns, and with a 10 year plus mine life PE's around 3 and 4 at current share price won't last long!
The question I have in my mind is whether the previous holder that is now not a substantial holder (as per the DBA announcement) remains holding for a period or will continue to drop shares in the coming weeks. If they continued to pester the market with sales it could sit in the current range for a few weeks before their sells are finally fillled. In fact I hope they keep up the selling until they are all out, then we won't be affected by more selling once the project is close to commissioning.
As for your thoughts on the possibility of teething problems at commencement, this is always a threat, but in fact most standard gold CIP/CIL plants tend to come on line with the odd small issue but rarely anything that holds up gold production thereafter - bearing in mind that most projects go via this BFS route and therefore have a considerable amount of metallurgical testing before the plant is designed (as has this Siana project).
With the start of the mine, maybe the biggest issue is not the open pit but rather the start up of the underground operation in year 3/4, although if the rain will always be a threat to mine production during the wet season (which seemed to continue for 5 - 6 months this year!).
If the POG falls away somewhat, my view is that it will limit the upside rather than force it down further from here - note that the BFS was developed off a gold price of US$800/oz and at anything above around A$1,200 it makes fantastic yearly returns, and with a 10 year plus mine life PE's around 3 and 4 at current share price won't last long!
- Joined
- 20 May 2011
- Posts
- 1,544
- Reactions
- 1
Pretty strong buying today, I wonder if it's the start of the uptrend?
Lets hope so but RED have made brief runs before and been hammered back back down with some large sells.
Has Deutsche bank finished selling is the question and when they have there'll be other traders who got in at 11c-12c selling for a quick profit.
So in answer to your question Starcraftmazter i'd say it wont be happening until RED start producing.
Thanks for those charts desjosie. Have never seen them before. where are thet sourced from? Go RED
Many thanks
Some interesting posts on RED the last few days, great to see so many watching it - but again that is also prompted when we see some slight positive movement too I guess.
I do agree with Jancha though, that caution is necessary at the moment as we still don't know what the last of those shares from DBA are doing - are they sitting tight or ready to be dumped again onto the market! I hope they dump actually, it will give us another opportunity to pick up more cheap shares, and then its good to run up way beyond where it has been before IMO. The last thing I like the thought of is to allow that dumper to make money when it goes for the run as they have caused so much heartache for us true believers!
And don't get me wrong, I haven't been selling any RED, I was accumulating more until I realised that someone was dumping a few weeks ago - shame I didn't pick the signal sooner though, its cost me quite a bit in the interim!
Just be aware that the pattern of those last dumps was - buy a few, then dump a lot at a slightly lower price, it went on for a long time and it is confirmed by DBA's announcement - they bought shares at a slightly higher price to entice more buyers in before dumping. They still probably have many millions that they might (?) dump.
But longer term, RED is going to be a real winner IMO!!!
I do agree with Jancha though, that caution is necessary at the moment as we still don't know what the last of those shares from DBA are doing - are they sitting tight or ready to be dumped again onto the market! I hope they dump actually, it will give us another opportunity to pick up more cheap shares, and then its good to run up way beyond where it has been before IMO. The last thing I like the thought of is to allow that dumper to make money when it goes for the run as they have caused so much heartache for us true believers!
And don't get me wrong, I haven't been selling any RED, I was accumulating more until I realised that someone was dumping a few weeks ago - shame I didn't pick the signal sooner though, its cost me quite a bit in the interim!
Just be aware that the pattern of those last dumps was - buy a few, then dump a lot at a slightly lower price, it went on for a long time and it is confirmed by DBA's announcement - they bought shares at a slightly higher price to entice more buyers in before dumping. They still probably have many millions that they might (?) dump.
But longer term, RED is going to be a real winner IMO!!!