VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
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Well picked up Mardo, the photos are most informative and clearly the dewatering is progressing well and the trucks seem to have access to an ever-increasing dewatered pit zone. The plant also is progressing well. I haven't checked the website for quite a while and had failed to realise even the earlier pics added for May and previous months.
Its a joke with RED trading at 12 - 12.5 cents, with a closing market cap today of $160 million. In fact soon RED's slide must surely come to an end, I'm amazed how low it has gone and I can't see it being much of a risk at RED's current share price and could move very quickly to higher levels based on my cash flow analysis.
Its a joke with RED trading at 12 - 12.5 cents, with a closing market cap today of $160 million. In fact soon RED's slide must surely come to an end, I'm amazed how low it has gone and I can't see it being much of a risk at RED's current share price and could move very quickly to higher levels based on my cash flow analysis.
Like to know peoples thoughts on what the hell happened today
Care to elaborate? I don't see anything out of the ordinary.
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Me neither, its just doing what it has been doing since last October.
What have you seen desjosie ?
Hi Desjosie, I also saw the aberration that you refer to! (But of course you are clearly watching more closely than some others, lol, and more in tune with myself!).
I think that RED getting clobbered, particularly with 1 relatively big sale (of just over 2.5 million at 12 cents) is indicative of some smaller insto, or bigger trader, wanting to get out prior to end of June financial year. And that may have no relevance to RED other than RED being another of the materials sector displaying dismal performance over the past month. Probably some investors, whoever they are, are lightening their portfolios of gold stocks with the outlook for commodities, including gold, looking fairly negative.
The other big(ger) trade of 10 million shares in RED today occurred at the beginning of the day, a crossing, and may be more related to a relocation of the shares within a related party funds group.
And the fact it touched 11.5 cents (just 16,000 shares) close to the end of trading, is really sick but could be more a test to see if someone wanted to dump shares at this lower price - fortunately no one did dump at that price, but who knows what might happen tomorrow and following days (just looking at the terrible short term trend that is developing).
I am also not that impressed with what has happened to the RED share price, but I continue to think that the fundamentals will ultimately see this turnaround big time, not sure exactly when that will happen, but probably once RED informs the market of progress and an anticipated date for first gold production. I can't see it being much later than about 2 1/2 months from now for that first gold production, subject to nothing rearing its ugly head (and RED is unlikely to suffer any major issue other than rain at Siana, its a standard gold development with a historic pit that is close to being fully dewatered at present).
I continue to load up at the moment!
I think that RED getting clobbered, particularly with 1 relatively big sale (of just over 2.5 million at 12 cents) is indicative of some smaller insto, or bigger trader, wanting to get out prior to end of June financial year. And that may have no relevance to RED other than RED being another of the materials sector displaying dismal performance over the past month. Probably some investors, whoever they are, are lightening their portfolios of gold stocks with the outlook for commodities, including gold, looking fairly negative.
The other big(ger) trade of 10 million shares in RED today occurred at the beginning of the day, a crossing, and may be more related to a relocation of the shares within a related party funds group.
And the fact it touched 11.5 cents (just 16,000 shares) close to the end of trading, is really sick but could be more a test to see if someone wanted to dump shares at this lower price - fortunately no one did dump at that price, but who knows what might happen tomorrow and following days (just looking at the terrible short term trend that is developing).
I am also not that impressed with what has happened to the RED share price, but I continue to think that the fundamentals will ultimately see this turnaround big time, not sure exactly when that will happen, but probably once RED informs the market of progress and an anticipated date for first gold production. I can't see it being much later than about 2 1/2 months from now for that first gold production, subject to nothing rearing its ugly head (and RED is unlikely to suffer any major issue other than rain at Siana, its a standard gold development with a historic pit that is close to being fully dewatered at present).
I continue to load up at the moment!
most likely talking about the 10 mil cross trade or dump, i can see red going much much lower with the end of financel year approaching , those that bought high will sell out to get a loss on there books then buy back in july 1, maybe up swing after that, never the less will be .115 tomorrow, seams to be going half a cent aday.....ouch!!!
Thankyou Beatle and Fastbuck1 for your indepth and knowledgable response to my question.. As you mentioned Beatle, I did take alot of notice of todays trading and watched all the sell off's with a disbelief..But as you said .. "great time to top up"..
I appreciate and thank people like yourself and Fastbuck1 who can pass on little snippets of knowledge to us who have just started out in the world of trading..
I appreciate and thank people like yourself and Fastbuck1 who can pass on little snippets of knowledge to us who have just started out in the world of trading..
Desjosie I'm happy to provide some comment that will give you another interpretation, the thing to note is that my view has not been of much help in predicting an improvement in RED's share price. I've found it to be very frustrating at a time when I can't believe how low the share price has been.
It's good to see Fastbuck still following RED & I agree with his view that tax loss selling must be one of the main issues facing certain investors, and if that's the case then hopefully there is a time limit on this downtrend!
It's good to see Fastbuck still following RED & I agree with his view that tax loss selling must be one of the main issues facing certain investors, and if that's the case then hopefully there is a time limit on this downtrend!
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110616/pdf/41z7l0zrsvnwyc.pdf
Some news that .. "some" people may be interested in.
Some news that .. "some" people may be interested in.
Absolutely Desjosie, another great announcement by RED that confirms progress is continuing towards the first gold pour and its unlikely that activity on the ground will be delayed too much in coming weeks as the rain is certainly not the factor that it has been coming out of the wet season as they are now!!!
Clearly the early trading suggests that RED will continue to be under some pressure from investors wanting to liquidate regardless, and dare I say it, for mine its probably the BEST and LAST (???) opportunity to get RED at a considerable discount to NPV - at 12 cents RED is valued at $154 million - on an NPV basis the gold is valued at more than 3 times that value!!!
You can blame this rout on many factors, such as tax selling, the Greek situation, US economy, whatever, but you can thank those same issues for allowing us to buy $3 of RED shares for $1 cash!!! And in time you will be able to convert your $3 of RED shares into cash (at $3!!!). IMO of course.
Clearly the early trading suggests that RED will continue to be under some pressure from investors wanting to liquidate regardless, and dare I say it, for mine its probably the BEST and LAST (???) opportunity to get RED at a considerable discount to NPV - at 12 cents RED is valued at $154 million - on an NPV basis the gold is valued at more than 3 times that value!!!
You can blame this rout on many factors, such as tax selling, the Greek situation, US economy, whatever, but you can thank those same issues for allowing us to buy $3 of RED shares for $1 cash!!! And in time you will be able to convert your $3 of RED shares into cash (at $3!!!). IMO of course.
Trading in RED is quite brisk this morning, and has been similar the last few trading days. Can't understand what I'm seeing, seems as though someone doesn't believe that RED is within cooee of producing gold at a considerable net profit per ounce!
Any ideas why/who wants to get out (of course someone is buying every share that is being sold!)?
Any ideas why/who wants to get out (of course someone is buying every share that is being sold!)?
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Hi Beatle...I'm still a holder, albeit significantly lighter than last time we spoke, which fortuitously has proven to be a wise decision. I am nonplussed at the continuing decline in RED's shareprice but have to keep on reminding myself that markets are never rational and that sometimes a stock, no matter how intrinsically cheap it may appear, will always appear cheap. I remain dubious about management as they seem more concerned about constructing a technically perfect mine than anything else and their choice of partners on the financial side has been questionable, to say the least. I know you will say that the suite of investors in RED is the envy of other comparable explorer/cum producers however, I'll bet there are questions being asked. I understand that the Board are surprised that it sometimes rains in that part of the Phillipines but anyone who has followed this coy for any length of time will be rather teed off that Mapawa seems to have been put to one side whilst the technical aspects of Siana are mulled over (Oh!, I forgot, the right size drill rods aren't available or it takes 10 years for assay results to be returned. Wasn't $20m of the over subscription last year to be ear-marked for Mapawa...oops...Rain!!) Sorry to be a wet blanket but these guys have disappointed me immensely, despite what any RED apologists may say. I hope they can finally meet one guideline and start gold production in the Sept qtr, as hope springs eternal!
Hi Hugh_Jarzz, and thanks for your comments, good to know you are still in RED even if you have lightened off (did I buy some of your stock, lol!).
AND of course I don't disagree with a number of your points made, particularly regarding the last big capital raising but we were pushed into the corner by RED managements crazy decision to take up more funds than they needed! Even I had to change my vote and comments to remove the possibility of the entire funding arrangement coming crashing down about us. But thats behind us now, and we know for certain that RED has sufficient funds to not only bring Siana into production, but also to increase the exploration effort on as many fronts as they see worthwhile, including Mapawa as well as on the Siana MPSA.
On the project front its been a very frustrating and disappointing last 6 months. And similar to you, hope remains eternal, that I expect Siana to come online now in the September quarter - and yes you are quite right that even if it looks cheap the market seems to be continuing its dumping. But I would have thought as we approach the final lap that significant share sales as we are seeing now would be less likely. I'm starting to think that a few are unloading completely unrelated to RED, and more related to other issues on the horizon with respect to the US, Eurozone etc. Its been a characteristic of the entire gold market of late.
BUT RED IS VERY CHEAP NOW, and it provides an opportunity to get more stock before the market realises that RED is about to produce lots of gold cheaply. with considerable profits! IMO of course. (I just wonder if the selling will continue at this current price or drop it lower, or the selling will dry up soon - any thoughts, anyone?).
AND of course I don't disagree with a number of your points made, particularly regarding the last big capital raising but we were pushed into the corner by RED managements crazy decision to take up more funds than they needed! Even I had to change my vote and comments to remove the possibility of the entire funding arrangement coming crashing down about us. But thats behind us now, and we know for certain that RED has sufficient funds to not only bring Siana into production, but also to increase the exploration effort on as many fronts as they see worthwhile, including Mapawa as well as on the Siana MPSA.
On the project front its been a very frustrating and disappointing last 6 months. And similar to you, hope remains eternal, that I expect Siana to come online now in the September quarter - and yes you are quite right that even if it looks cheap the market seems to be continuing its dumping. But I would have thought as we approach the final lap that significant share sales as we are seeing now would be less likely. I'm starting to think that a few are unloading completely unrelated to RED, and more related to other issues on the horizon with respect to the US, Eurozone etc. Its been a characteristic of the entire gold market of late.
BUT RED IS VERY CHEAP NOW, and it provides an opportunity to get more stock before the market realises that RED is about to produce lots of gold cheaply. with considerable profits! IMO of course. (I just wonder if the selling will continue at this current price or drop it lower, or the selling will dry up soon - any thoughts, anyone?).
If i haven't said it before (old age creeping in!), at these prices, particularly under most recent cap raise, that RED's cheapness just logically has to be on a M&A filter on the PCs of lots of deal makers...........our number 2 shareholder giving active support in Conquest/ Catalpa tie-up with a warning to others..........
"London-listed fund manager Baker Steel, which has millions tied up in WA's junior gold sector, says a $1.2 billion deal between Conquest Mining, Catalpa Resources and Newcrest Mining will be a 'wake-up call' to the rest of the industry to consolidate or be left behind."
I am nervous that nothing of the sort happens before we get back to more reasonable value.
"London-listed fund manager Baker Steel, which has millions tied up in WA's junior gold sector, says a $1.2 billion deal between Conquest Mining, Catalpa Resources and Newcrest Mining will be a 'wake-up call' to the rest of the industry to consolidate or be left behind."
I am nervous that nothing of the sort happens before we get back to more reasonable value.
Hi Guys, I entirely agree with many of Beatle's and other comments. It has been a very disappointing 6 months. To be fair to management, the unrelenting and unseasonal rain has caused the project to be running considerably behind. However, the latest pics show that rapid progress is now being made and soon we will have a projected first pour date. But the world has changed for the moment in relation to gold shares, although not the gold price. One only has to look at MML and NCM to see the carnage is pretty much across the board. The story is the same globally. There was one bright spot last week with the OGC announcement, but that faded again yesterday. Hard to predict the coming months, except to say that if the gold price holds up or increases further, eventually attention will return to the producers. So my hope is that we will still manage to "surf" on top of a surging SP in the coming months. I look forward to seeing some of you at "the party". AB
Hi AB, good to see your getting ready for our meeting "at the party" (or as I refer to it as the First Supper - its certainly not going to be the last supper!).
I'm still intrigued to know who is wasting their past investment dollars getting out at this late stage! (Even though its up this morning I don't know if the craziness selling has stopped, I'm not convinced of it yet!).
Mgm1a, you make a good point with regard to takeover target material, but I'm hoping RED will move out of that zone within the next month or so as start up day gets closer.
Good luck to all holders, and I look forward to seeing as many posters at the mine opening first supper party! (Assuming we are invited, but I'm gonna take possession of the keys to the mine if they don't let me in, lol!).
I'm still intrigued to know who is wasting their past investment dollars getting out at this late stage! (Even though its up this morning I don't know if the craziness selling has stopped, I'm not convinced of it yet!).
Mgm1a, you make a good point with regard to takeover target material, but I'm hoping RED will move out of that zone within the next month or so as start up day gets closer.
Good luck to all holders, and I look forward to seeing as many posters at the mine opening first supper party! (Assuming we are invited, but I'm gonna take possession of the keys to the mine if they don't let me in, lol!).
beatle i'm thinking that red will issue its long term holder a 10 oz bar each for there frustration over the years ...or am i dreaming lol....
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I've been holding on for only about a month, but I'm not really worried about the selling that has happened (or any potential selling that will occur) as it's a clear reflection on the overall market.
I'm still looking to divert a lot of my money into RED in about 1-2 months so I'm easy with the prices
I'm still looking to divert a lot of my money into RED in about 1-2 months so I'm easy with the prices
Starcraftmazter, go on the ATO website and bring up the RED chart along with the ASX200 chart. you'll see that the overall market is down which has pulled RED along for the ride. If you believe that RED and the market overall is at a low then the only place to go from there is............???