VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
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Hi Desjosie, I'm none the wiser re the relevance and actual details of the U trades, but I'm sure its part of the juggling game that goes on between the bigger players, inter or intra!
The big question on my mind, and probably is also on the minds of the many RED observers, is - When is the latest we can still get RED shares relatively cheaply, ie WHEN is RED about to take off towards the giddy heights we all anticipate. RED appears to be wakening from its slumber the past few trading days, even though volume is not so much above average. My view is that one day soon we will all be saying, Oh heck (or stronger!) I should have loaded up even more!
(Seems like those concrete foundations are now about cured sufficiently for the heavy loads and we know that the crane is onsite, plus the mill, AND they must be close to completely dewatering the pit now....). Get the picture of how I'm thinking?
The big question on my mind, and probably is also on the minds of the many RED observers, is - When is the latest we can still get RED shares relatively cheaply, ie WHEN is RED about to take off towards the giddy heights we all anticipate. RED appears to be wakening from its slumber the past few trading days, even though volume is not so much above average. My view is that one day soon we will all be saying, Oh heck (or stronger!) I should have loaded up even more!
(Seems like those concrete foundations are now about cured sufficiently for the heavy loads and we know that the crane is onsite, plus the mill, AND they must be close to completely dewatering the pit now....). Get the picture of how I'm thinking?
Thanks for the response to my Question Beatle .. I thought that it could have been something along those lines.. With you and all the others who have confidence in Red ..I am awaiting the day I turn on the computer and see the sp up in the dizzy heights. I felt it was unfortunate at the begining of the year i had to sell all a majority of my red shares to pay for funeral costs for my father, but thankfully the sp had dropped well below my sell price since that time and I was able to buy back in and hold a lot more than I previously did. so out of a dark gloomy period in my life.. a silver (No - Gold) lining will come of it.. That I'm sure of..
All is very quiet here on this thread. I`m starting to become very disillusioned with all the information that has come my way both professionally and through my own nutting out with nothing but a big downward pointy arrow.
Anybody willing to cheer me up?
Anybody willing to cheer me up?
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Mate.
I have been following RED since last sep, bt @ 12 sld at 17, bt in again @18c , and have increased my holdings again at 14c.
WRT RED, lets look at from an investment view.
one could buy a house for 600k, & stamp duty alone is 30k, you may make 10% in one year (which I doubt as house price are steady or dropping in most cap cities) say $60k then pay commision to sell etc and have tenants maybe wreck it.
I could buy red shares with what i give the gov in stampduty say 200 000 at 14c.
Why?
So if you are going to be in the market (not in cash) - only invest what you can lose & sleep at night knowing you may lose.
why gold stocks - risky?
I note all gold stocks have been 20% -30% in the last 6weeks
- go to http://au.ibtimes.com/gold/ and read about fiat money, china trying to increase gold reserves and Europe (worse off than USA who can print their way out of trouble as all debt is in $US).
So why RED
1. Red has found gold - most explorers can't!
2. Red has the finance and has equity funding!! if the GFC2 occurs it will keep going unlike LYC which stopped.
3. Red is unhedged.(PRU has 240kOZ hedged)
4. Red is doing a simple project - building a mine - not trying developing a fusion reactor!
5. Only delay is rain - and who hasn't seen a house project get delayed through rain.
6. Red is trading at just above the high of the 1st post 4 years ago @ 14c. Since then another 900M shares have been issued, diluting the equity / share, so now is an even better time to buy.
7. DBS bt another $10M worth of shares a few weeks back, if they are investing this much, versus most of here probably owning around $10k to $50k worth, they must be confident.
so why RED over a producer? look at KRM, SAR, GDO to see what happen when they go through commissioning - sp doubles.
- so what other mines are commissioning why not invest in them
- In the next 6? months BDR, NMG, PRU get commissioned.
my research.
PRU as mentioned - hedged
RED has highest Rsv/Rsc ratio of the four.
RED has lowest Ev/Rsc of the four
RED has no debt (but yes 1200M shares), the rest have at least 70M debt
RED (my calcs) has best ~ 1st yr EPS / Share price (.05/.14)
RED has only drilled 3? of 8 sheets at Siama for Rsc/Rsv
A brokerage report - referred to on this site a few blogs back showed the current NPV of RED @ $1500 Au around 42c.
So that $30k could nearly triple to 90k making 60k and for a lot less stress than buying a house (or putting in a crop like a lot of farmers do.... & praying for rain))
So sit back, shares in the bottom drawer and look at them in 12 months time.....hopefully they have doubled to 25c, if not 42.....
next friday will be a month since the last RED update, so hopefully we may see another release (with a commission date)
Cheers
I have been following RED since last sep, bt @ 12 sld at 17, bt in again @18c , and have increased my holdings again at 14c.
WRT RED, lets look at from an investment view.
one could buy a house for 600k, & stamp duty alone is 30k, you may make 10% in one year (which I doubt as house price are steady or dropping in most cap cities) say $60k then pay commision to sell etc and have tenants maybe wreck it.
I could buy red shares with what i give the gov in stampduty say 200 000 at 14c.
Why?
So if you are going to be in the market (not in cash) - only invest what you can lose & sleep at night knowing you may lose.
why gold stocks - risky?
I note all gold stocks have been 20% -30% in the last 6weeks
- go to http://au.ibtimes.com/gold/ and read about fiat money, china trying to increase gold reserves and Europe (worse off than USA who can print their way out of trouble as all debt is in $US).
So why RED
1. Red has found gold - most explorers can't!
2. Red has the finance and has equity funding!! if the GFC2 occurs it will keep going unlike LYC which stopped.
3. Red is unhedged.(PRU has 240kOZ hedged)
4. Red is doing a simple project - building a mine - not trying developing a fusion reactor!
5. Only delay is rain - and who hasn't seen a house project get delayed through rain.
6. Red is trading at just above the high of the 1st post 4 years ago @ 14c. Since then another 900M shares have been issued, diluting the equity / share, so now is an even better time to buy.
7. DBS bt another $10M worth of shares a few weeks back, if they are investing this much, versus most of here probably owning around $10k to $50k worth, they must be confident.
so why RED over a producer? look at KRM, SAR, GDO to see what happen when they go through commissioning - sp doubles.
- so what other mines are commissioning why not invest in them
- In the next 6? months BDR, NMG, PRU get commissioned.
my research.
PRU as mentioned - hedged
RED has highest Rsv/Rsc ratio of the four.
RED has lowest Ev/Rsc of the four
RED has no debt (but yes 1200M shares), the rest have at least 70M debt
RED (my calcs) has best ~ 1st yr EPS / Share price (.05/.14)
RED has only drilled 3? of 8 sheets at Siama for Rsc/Rsv
A brokerage report - referred to on this site a few blogs back showed the current NPV of RED @ $1500 Au around 42c.
So that $30k could nearly triple to 90k making 60k and for a lot less stress than buying a house (or putting in a crop like a lot of farmers do.... & praying for rain))
So sit back, shares in the bottom drawer and look at them in 12 months time.....hopefully they have doubled to 25c, if not 42.....
next friday will be a month since the last RED update, so hopefully we may see another release (with a commission date)
Cheers
Top post Goldmunster.With the world macro situation as it is today i'm also happy to be holding a gold stock that should start production in the Sept Quarter and be in the lowest quartile of producers for a few years.This will surely outperform bricks & morter within the next few years IMO.
Some good points Gold Munster, and whilst I am far too biased to say too much, I can say is that at the height of the GFC RED was like many other undervalued stocks and I wish I had followed my view completely and put all my spare cash in RED at that time. Now I feel like the gloomy outlook is similar to the GFC, but with gold now trading higher with RED having dramatically progressed its project it surely deserves to be valued at more than double what its currently trading at (actually my model suggests its more like a third of the true NPV!!!). Therefore I am now following my fundamental view of its undervalued price, and I have been buying at these current low prices, and will slowly continue buying more - I have sold out many other stocks to free up that cash for buying RED, as I can't see any other gold stocks that are likely to go through the transition from development into production within the next 3 months like RED with so much going for it.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Baker Steel and JP Morgan to support the stock once it gets into commissioning.
Gold Munster is correct that RED should be soon reporting again on its developments, I understand that the emptying of water from the old pit is close to complete, that the plant is advancing with no big issues being developed, the concrete for the mills is now well and truly curing, and that utilisation of trucks has increased after the heavy rains of past months.
We are probably only 2 months from plant commissioning and first gold production soon after.
I believe we will see RED begin to start moving up once management confirms its progress and therefore I have been trying to slowly build up another holding way beyond my core holding which has been there for many years! I don't think that RED will trade at this price again once in production.
Finally I hope you get your reward Desjosie, sounds like you deserve a turnaround, and I will be glad to know you have made some of that on our mate RED!!!
I wouldn't be surprised to see Baker Steel and JP Morgan to support the stock once it gets into commissioning.
Gold Munster is correct that RED should be soon reporting again on its developments, I understand that the emptying of water from the old pit is close to complete, that the plant is advancing with no big issues being developed, the concrete for the mills is now well and truly curing, and that utilisation of trucks has increased after the heavy rains of past months.
We are probably only 2 months from plant commissioning and first gold production soon after.
I believe we will see RED begin to start moving up once management confirms its progress and therefore I have been trying to slowly build up another holding way beyond my core holding which has been there for many years! I don't think that RED will trade at this price again once in production.
Finally I hope you get your reward Desjosie, sounds like you deserve a turnaround, and I will be glad to know you have made some of that on our mate RED!!!
Whilst I'm not a member of Fat Prophets, I believe that RED was given a BUY recommendation by Fat Prophets middle of last week. I saw a business program on Foxtel yesterday morning (Saturday, repeat show) and the program host mentioned it - but he couldn't recall what project (and what mineral) RED held!
This proves to me that RED needs to get out and about (IN AUSTRALIA) telling all brokers on a one by one basis, about its project, and its soon to be monthly gold production/gross profit! Once the market gets more realisation of what RED is on the verge of producing I believe its share price will begin moving higher.
This proves to me that RED needs to get out and about (IN AUSTRALIA) telling all brokers on a one by one basis, about its project, and its soon to be monthly gold production/gross profit! Once the market gets more realisation of what RED is on the verge of producing I believe its share price will begin moving higher.
" where are the drill results?????"
- maybe the drill samples are solid gold and are being kept to make up the gold medallions in readiness for the mine opening, lol!
Actually from what I understand the last holes drilled at Mapawa were sampled and results that were significant were already reported - thus no outstanding results are awaited. Then when the rain set in the rigs were taken back to the minesite awaiting relocation about Siana or elsewhere. Presumably the rigs are drilling now that the rain has abated.
I believe that management consider the Mapawa porphyry does have considerable value, but there is some query as to the exact location and depth of where the real mineralisation is - this is reinforced in the last couple of reports regarding the Mapawa porphyry.
I emphasise that RED's valuation of mid-30's cents to the share price relates solely to Siana, and Mapawa is just the cream,, and in time once the gold production begins it will be time for Mapawa AND all the other highly prospective exploration areas will become more of the focus. And RED will have something like $17 million cash for that exploration after all capex is met on the Siana plant.
- maybe the drill samples are solid gold and are being kept to make up the gold medallions in readiness for the mine opening, lol!
Actually from what I understand the last holes drilled at Mapawa were sampled and results that were significant were already reported - thus no outstanding results are awaited. Then when the rain set in the rigs were taken back to the minesite awaiting relocation about Siana or elsewhere. Presumably the rigs are drilling now that the rain has abated.
I believe that management consider the Mapawa porphyry does have considerable value, but there is some query as to the exact location and depth of where the real mineralisation is - this is reinforced in the last couple of reports regarding the Mapawa porphyry.
I emphasise that RED's valuation of mid-30's cents to the share price relates solely to Siana, and Mapawa is just the cream,, and in time once the gold production begins it will be time for Mapawa AND all the other highly prospective exploration areas will become more of the focus. And RED will have something like $17 million cash for that exploration after all capex is met on the Siana plant.
Thanks Beatle, informative posting as always.
Surely if they thought that Mapawa has this potential they'd be there drilling to back it up? I know they need to get the main project up and running (no sh*t) but surely they also need to let the market know that this stock has potential down the track????
P.S GO RED!!
Surely if they thought that Mapawa has this potential they'd be there drilling to back it up? I know they need to get the main project up and running (no sh*t) but surely they also need to let the market know that this stock has potential down the track????
P.S GO RED!!
I don't disagree with you Hurricane, its so important for RED to both get the gold production up and running and also to let the market know that Siana is just the cash cow for exploring the considerable potential of both the wider Siana and Mapawa MPSA's.
On that front I note that MML, RED's closest comparison in the relative vicinity, has been doing a great job of letting the market know of its wider exploration potential. And the fact that MML currently has a market cap of around $1.5 BILLION (RED $170 million) - this suggests to me that RED has got a long way to go before the market is fully informed of RED's current and potential market value!
On that front I note that MML, RED's closest comparison in the relative vicinity, has been doing a great job of letting the market know of its wider exploration potential. And the fact that MML currently has a market cap of around $1.5 BILLION (RED $170 million) - this suggests to me that RED has got a long way to go before the market is fully informed of RED's current and potential market value!
Hi all RED club members..
Some great posts of late, especially Gold Munster. Its always great to see a newbie to the thread adding his well educated thoughts on RED and its future. Bring on that commissioning date.
Still not much on the activity front, other than the 10 million odd traded this morning and the 20 million traded a few days ago. I wonder who is bailing out this time??? But more importantly which of the instos is topping up??? Or is there someone new in the mix.
One last thing. For all of your who trade through comm sec. I had to have a little giggle to myself this morning when a turned on the computer. Up popped comm sec. I noticed the most popular stocks. Theres about six, and bugger me dead. Theres RED at the top of the list. I thought this must be a miss print, or a computer glitch, lol. As we all know its usually the blue chips like the BHPs, MQG and the LEIs and so forth. But i figured there must have been another large trade, which there was. If it can make it into that window every now and again RED might just get noticed.
Anyhow not long now, C'mon RED
Some great posts of late, especially Gold Munster. Its always great to see a newbie to the thread adding his well educated thoughts on RED and its future. Bring on that commissioning date.
Still not much on the activity front, other than the 10 million odd traded this morning and the 20 million traded a few days ago. I wonder who is bailing out this time??? But more importantly which of the instos is topping up??? Or is there someone new in the mix.
One last thing. For all of your who trade through comm sec. I had to have a little giggle to myself this morning when a turned on the computer. Up popped comm sec. I noticed the most popular stocks. Theres about six, and bugger me dead. Theres RED at the top of the list. I thought this must be a miss print, or a computer glitch, lol. As we all know its usually the blue chips like the BHPs, MQG and the LEIs and so forth. But i figured there must have been another large trade, which there was. If it can make it into that window every now and again RED might just get noticed.
Anyhow not long now, C'mon RED
The equity markets around the world, plus end of financial year blues in Australia is a powerful combined negative force for RED, BUT I have a view that once the negativity settles RED will be moving up due to its own particular situation of getting closer to first gold production. And that first production is a sign of huge profits coming in on a monthly basis thereafter! This will cause a considerable momentum shift to sentiment for RED.
I still hold my view that RED is considerably under-valued, regardless of the gold price being at this current high level or even US$300/oz less! And just take note that gold price in A$ is going to be hedged somewhat if there is a drop in US$gold price due to the natural antipathetic relationship between A$ currency and US$gold price - if you take a look at the following graph of gold price in A$ it remains on a significant long term uptrend:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=10Y
I still hold my view that RED is considerably under-valued, regardless of the gold price being at this current high level or even US$300/oz less! And just take note that gold price in A$ is going to be hedged somewhat if there is a drop in US$gold price due to the natural antipathetic relationship between A$ currency and US$gold price - if you take a look at the following graph of gold price in A$ it remains on a significant long term uptrend:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=10Y
hi all. I am in shock-similar to when my Lynas shares went under a dollar in 2008 all way down to 10c.
At 13c the m.cap IS $166m. The NTA of assets excluding the gold was $136m at Dec, so maybe around $130m with another 6 months of costs and fx variances,say.
This leaves an EV of $36m for the 849Koz of deliverable gold with an IGV of $1.2B.
At 13c the m.cap IS $166m. The NTA of assets excluding the gold was $136m at Dec, so maybe around $130m with another 6 months of costs and fx variances,say.
This leaves an EV of $36m for the 849Koz of deliverable gold with an IGV of $1.2B.
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The longer it stays low the more time we have to buy more shares, I for one am happy
I'm also flabbergasted Mgm1a, I can't believe seeing RED back at this level, especially knowing the stage that RED is at. And yes Starcraftmazter it is a surprisingly good opportunity to buy more shares. I'm wondering if it can go any lower before buying more, but for sure I want some more within the current price range, but will hold off in case some end of financial year dumpers are clearing their bottom drawers!
On the ground I have been watching the weather daily for both Surigao and Butuan, the 2 towns within cooee that gives an indication of the weather conditions for Siana, and clearly the sun has been shining for a while now, and I do know that the pit water is now close to being emptied, probably will be empty within the next couple of weeks. I understand that the trucks have increased utilisation on waste rock removal in readiness for opening up the pit at the time of plant commissioning. The mill's en route to the minesite, and should be positioned on its concrete base within the next few weeks. Its all coming together now and therefore the current share price is absolutely mind-boggling.
On the trading front it appears that some bigger lumps have been relocated into different fund entities in recent days, probably taking advantage to the reducing price. I would say that the dumper at 13.5 cents today (of around 1.5 million shares was more likely a trader than a fund position).
On the ground I have been watching the weather daily for both Surigao and Butuan, the 2 towns within cooee that gives an indication of the weather conditions for Siana, and clearly the sun has been shining for a while now, and I do know that the pit water is now close to being emptied, probably will be empty within the next couple of weeks. I understand that the trucks have increased utilisation on waste rock removal in readiness for opening up the pit at the time of plant commissioning. The mill's en route to the minesite, and should be positioned on its concrete base within the next few weeks. Its all coming together now and therefore the current share price is absolutely mind-boggling.
On the trading front it appears that some bigger lumps have been relocated into different fund entities in recent days, probably taking advantage to the reducing price. I would say that the dumper at 13.5 cents today (of around 1.5 million shares was more likely a trader than a fund position).
Hi guys, I am still around but have been under the pump with work, moving into a new apartment, getting my new wife off to Japan, and not really believing the RED SP. Still, as I had to sell a few off at 15c to cover Stamp Duty on the apartment pending other funds arriving, I still have the opportunity to buy back at a "profit". Completely insane when you think about it. Beatle, am still planning on going to the party, so hopefully meet there. By the way, I was running low on older REDs as I discovered some of my stock was "off" (a bit like RED lol) and had to pour it out as straining so much sediment through my teeth made them change colour, but thanks to Grays Online I have been able to pick up some great older wine at very attractive prices................hey....Just like the RED SP. AB
Hi Anderbond, good to hear you're still there, and yes I can confirm that I WILL be at the mine opening, unless it coincides with Christmas, lol! So I hope to catch up with you then onsite. Its amazing to see how low RED has gone in the past weeks and my view is that you can buy back in at current prices and have little downside from here (I hope!). I've been adding to my holding in recent days, and I'll keep adding a few at lower prices if it continues to drop.
Moit, I failed to notice your post, I think that you were posting just as I was also preparing a post the other day. Regarding your comments on the big sale, I understand it was simply a move from one fund to another fund (and assume it was a related party), thus no insto selling out on that particular transaction.
Moit, I failed to notice your post, I think that you were posting just as I was also preparing a post the other day. Regarding your comments on the big sale, I understand it was simply a move from one fund to another fund (and assume it was a related party), thus no insto selling out on that particular transaction.