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VAU - Vault Minerals

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Hi all,

First of all, much thanks to beatle for his frequent posts and his insight, i think that i speak for everyone here that it is much appreciated. Whilst reviewing RED at the end of trading today, i noticed that at the 13c mark, there's almost 30m shares for sale. It seems to me that a relatively big player seems to want out of this gem and soon. Would be interesting to see who this player is, as the order cannot have been submitted more than a few hours ago.

Cheers all
 
Thanks Wtang89, I appreciate your comments.

The sell order you refer to of just under 30 million shares at 13 cents in the market is an interesting development, and I have no explanation at all. Clearly the shares have to be owned by someone so it can't be a dummy shareholding, and just to see it there is very unnerving. To be honest in all my years of trading with a stock of this trading volume liquidity I have not seen such an offer ever.

That leads me (I guess somewhat hopefully!) to think that its someone with a big holding just trying to unsettle the market (and smaller shareholders such as us retails traders), and its done the job - I don't like it at all!

My logic is that from a wider perspective, ie with respect to the Siana development, that there is no obvious reason why such a major shareholding would be so quickly put on the market (albeit at a slightly higher share price to current) IF Siana development was proceeding in accordance with the latest presentation information only 3 weeks ago (27th July) and the announcement of debt finance only 2 weeks ago (August 5)! In fact there would have to be a Trading Halt if it was known that things were not proceeding as has been recently reported, that Siana is developing in line with timeframes consistent with recent news. One thing I know about RED 5 management, is that they are very conservative, and therefore would have no hesitation in seeking a Trading Halt if the project was going off the rails!

But its so surprising (and disappointing) to see such a large share offer being made open on market. If its an insto trying to bully us smaller shareholders then I really don't like it nor appreciate that style of trading tactic whatsoever, but being locked in now there is not much that can be done. I have sufficient confidence in RED management's conservatism to believe there is nothing untoward with respect to Siana. However, it is possible that Mapawa has not come up in those first couple of shallower holes, but having noted that, NO party outside of management should be aware of the drillhole results from that drilling yet, and if they do then its so easy to have ASX check about insider trading.

Having gone through all the possibilities my logic suggests that there is no inside information to form this decision and it must be tree shaking - but its a bloody good attempt at shaking the tree, and I personally don't like it!
 
Hi Beatle and others. I have been doing a little digging around with some of my contacts in relation to this large parcel of stock for sale. The "educated" guess is that it is in fact an institution, probably Sydney based (not Matthews)that has listed the parcel. There is full agreement that the method of attempting to sell the parcel is extremely unusual to say the least. But there is no knowledge as to why the parcel has been put up for sale.The further word is that the company has no real issues with the funding package offered by DB, but does recognise that the terms of the finance package has unsettled the market a little. Other options being considered for financing include a gold prepay arrangement or a $40 million CR in the US. But no more announcements on finance are likely until end September or later. There is plenty of cash in the bank and work onsite is proceeding (Siana). AB
 
Hi Beatle,

You are definitely right in saying that it is indeed unnerving, but given the trading volume lately, a sell order of that size seems so out of place. I mean even if its a large institution trying to unload close to 30m shares, in their position submitting a sell order of that size seems to be anything but productive. If they were desperate to sell, i would expect them to break up the order? In that line of thought, it would be logical to assume that the order is used as an attempt to cap the share price at that 13c mark. Which begs the question why?. IT does seem to be working, as trading volumes have been very low in recent days. I guess for now, we can only wait and see.
 
Further to the post regarding my thoughts on the current big seller(s) sitting at 12.5 cents and 13.0 cents on RED.

I am feeling more comfortable after a few hours trading in RED this morning - there has been no ASX announcement or Trading Halt, which could otherwise represent some significant departure to development of the Siana gold project as we currently know it. IF there was something seriously amiss at the project that has caused a couple of big sell orders, by 1 or 2 holders to decide to leave the register then by now the company would have the responsibility of informing the market, thus my thoughts are that its nothing related to RED activities on the ground at all.

Although Siana DCF fundamental valuation has not underpinned current share price, it gives me personal confidence that once we get closer to gold production RED WILL trade considerably higher than 12 odd cents (subject always to gold price!). But with gold sitting at around US$1,225/oz Siana represents a value of around mid-30 cents per share to RED -Based on the current number of shares, of course it will change somewhat if the equity is increased via placement funds to finalise the funding for Siana if done via new equity. But actually (and of course it also depends upon the pricing of any new issue, thus the number of new shares being issued) it is possible that the valuation per share will drop if new equity is presumed cf a debt funding, but certainly to a level way above 12 cents!

IT MAY BE that the current sellers of those 29.4 million shares are in fact a group of investors that have offered an alternative funding mechanism via equity to the DB offer of finance. Thus they are trying to cap the pricing of any new funding proposal.

Whatever, there is no doubt in my mind after a few hours trading, that RED is not in any predicament on the ground, its clearly a finance or share trading activity, and for longer shareholders its worth the wait - and if you want to pick up a few shares off the major cappers then go for it and make them pay through loss of some shares, lol! (I wish i had a few more coins in the pocket to test my theory!).

I still consider we are seeing the lowest price in RED that we are due to see before it moves to much higher levels some time soon! But we shall see the result soon enough. (And anyone wanting to kick a bit more sand in my face while the share price is down go for it, lol, whats the expression? - "sticks and stones will break my bones but names will never harm me" Lol). By the way, I also would like to thank Dratoz for your kind words, I am so peed off that I have not been allowed to post elsewhere just to keep in touch with all the longer term posters in RED, but I still hope to meet up with you all if you will be at the mine opening next year - I will be there, invited or not! And the other knocker type posters are not worth wasting time on except to refute the rubbish they are trying to disseminate to the more meaningful shareholders!

(PS. I was booted out of that other posting website totally unrelated to RED and in fact due to moderators having the heavies put on them by parties associated with other companies that I was posting on at the time. I was not posting using multiple nicknames, thats the excuse to remove me being a headache to prevent my posting on those other threads. So there!!!).
 
This may be a silly question but is this strategy a common one for big players? (i.e placing a large sell order, effectively capping the SP)

I'd appreciate it if someone could advise the possible reasons and outcomes for this kind of activity......
 
my veiw on the 29mil shares is it could be a deceased estate and whom ever wants them sold has'nt got a clue how to go about......there's no way a insto would try to sell like what were seeing, an insto would either line up some buyers of screen and we would see a after hours crossing or slowly dribble them out over time .......my veiw only
 
fastbuck, i agree that is plausible.

the amount seems highly unusual but it may be quite measured - remember volumes are getting light /tight - there are days when volumes struggle - people not wanting to let go of any - lets face it there are lots of us convinced on the value of RED.
Despite the av. vol. being 4 mill last few months we have had days of double that.
So the capper needs to shock even more than usual - its risky - but they have the volume of 3-4m at 12.5c to buffer any big move that might be unexpected.

It just seems too outrageous to be a capper AND to be other than a capper - if it was an executor selling up an estate you'd think they'd ring up Mathews or Merrill to do a deal or at the very least call the co. to ask if they knew if any holder was wanting more?

Sigh!
 
fastbuck1 said:
my veiw on the 29mil shares is it could be a deceased estate and whom ever wants them sold has'nt got a clue how to go about......there's no way a insto would try to sell like what were seeing, an insto would either line up some buyers of screen and we would see a after hours crossing or slowly dribble them out over time .......my veiw only
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In my limited knowledge that in a stock not heavlly traded to put up 30 mil and think it would get swollowed up is unusual to say the least, surelly not an insto and a deceased estate would i think get advice and i would think dribble it, will be interesting to see where it goes, i do hold so our way i hope.
 
Anderbond, I have thought more about your suggestions re the Sydney based insto putting the big cap on etc, and also Mgm1a's view that the smaller 3 million parcel is acting as a buffer to that cap, and it seems like the explanations are very likely to be on the mark.
I do want to ask you AB one thing though, with your comment that no word will come out re the financing until end of Sept or later - is this related to the quarterly, or you think that there is another reason why RED won't act sooner - i do agree that its more than likely that RED has sufficient funds internally to maintain the momentum of development works at Siana and also Mapawa.
I'm feeling more comfortable about the trading today despite it being at a lower price than yesterday!
 
But WHY!!!!!?????? What reason would a holder of the stock have to effectively cap the share price unless they were genuinly wanting to sell?
 
Hurricane, IF we are on the right track that someone is capping the stock price, then ITS POSSIBLE (I'm not saying they are doing it though!), that the capper is related to a party that is seeking to do a deal on an alternative equity based deal, thus they are trying to cap the pricing of that alternative deal! Not real ethical but its possible. In that regard RED clearly would not know who the capper is (but would of course know who the alternative deal is with!) until someone started to buy into the shares at 13 cents (and maybe the 3 million at 12.5 cents would be the same party) and the way the pricing is going its not going to be eaten into at all.
 
Only time will tell I suppose : ) And to think I was a hair trigger from bailing on these guys last month!! (before BOA loaded up) Now I'm sitting here with double what I started with............. would have liked to have got in at 11c though.
 
Hi Beatle, as I understand things, there is some sort of "exclusivity" with DB that if RED does anything different within a nominated period, there is some sort of penalty. The penalty is not small beer apparently. I hope I have this correct as it comes via a third party. If I have the right understanding, the "exclusivity" expires towards or at end September. By the way, I now have CJ's number, so might call him next week to check this out a bit more plus anything else that seems odd. The info comes from him via the third party so I just hope that something has not been mixed up in the passing on. The matter of the lump of shares plus other financing options was also part of this. I remain tranquil despite the oddness of one or two things happening at the moment. I fully agree with you that if there was some kind of problem that might derail things, it would be disclosed. AB
 
Thanks for the clarification Anderbond. If there is an Exclusivity with Deutsche until late Sept I guess RED will continue to use internal funds to bankroll the Siana development until either a sweetened DB deal or a completely new deal can be done thereafter. At least RED does have alternatives with the cash and time up its sleeve and we have a timeline drawn in the sand!

I would be interested to see if the 3 million buffer was taken out what would happen to the 29.4 million cap at 13 cents!

Now its only a matter of a short time before RED gets its re-valuation in my opinion.
 
Hurricane said:
Only time will tell I suppose : ) And to think I was a hair trigger from bailing on these guys last month!! (before BOA loaded up) Now I'm sitting here with double what I started with............. would have liked to have got in at 11c though.
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beatle said:
Thanks for the clarification Anderbond. If there is an Exclusivity with Deutsche until late Sept I guess RED will continue to use internal funds to bankroll the Siana development until either a sweetened DB deal or a completely new deal can be done thereafter. At least RED does have alternatives with the cash and time up its sleeve and we have a timeline drawn in the sand!

I would be interested to see if the 3 million buffer was taken out what would happen to the 29.4 million cap at 13 cents!

Now its only a matter of a short time before RED gets its re-valuation in my opinion.
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Re-valuation ??? would like to get in at .11c ???? i know its a down day on the markets but i ( with all the info supplied by beatle and anderbond) have only seen this stock heading in one direction.........
Best of luck to all holders but all the positive info on this co and there assets has made shareholders see only one thing.......RED:cautious:
 
Bigukraine, I agree its been a sad couple of weeks for RED shareholders, with its price going against the grain of its underlying valuation for Siana. Interestingly this is against a backdrop of an increase in gold price. But I'm of the view that EVERY dog (you can call RED a dog if you wish at the moment!) has its day, and its medium term outlook, subject to a gold price remaining above US$1,000/oz is most exciting. In fact its outlook for the next few months is surely one of the best kept bargains in my view, as ultimately there WILL be a re-valuation in line with the DCF valuation.

You don't need to buy shares in it, but it might just be the one that got away from you if you don't! I for one remain completely a believer as it will become a gold producer within a year, and with a whole of life (10 years plus) P/E of less than 4 - that just can't continue once closer to production, and if you doubt that then you may as well keep your money in blue chips such as Telstra (Lol!).
 
beatle said:
Bigukraine, I agree its been a sad couple of weeks for RED shareholders, with its price going against the grain of its underlying valuation for Siana. Interestingly this is against a backdrop of an increase in gold price. But I'm of the view that EVERY dog (you can call RED a dog if you wish at the moment!) has its day, and its medium term outlook, subject to a gold price remaining above US$1,000/oz is most exciting. In fact its outlook for the next few months is surely one of the best kept bargains in my view, as ultimately there WILL be a re-valuation in line with the DCF valuation.

You don't need to buy shares in it, but it might just be the one that got away from you if you don't! I for one remain completely a believer as it will become a gold producer within a year, and with a whole of life (10 years plus) P/E of less than 4 - that just can't continue once closer to production, and if you doubt that then you may as well keep your money in blue chips such as Telstra (Lol!).
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at least with telstra you would of got quite a few div chq's over the last 5 years......:rolleyes: instead of your investment being the same as you started (if you bought red) 5 years ago....:D:D
 
RED has basically operated between 12c & 15c since March this year and with one major breakout.It will probably stay within theses peramiters untill some major shift in thinking or progress on the mine to a more fully progressed state.
When this happens we will all know, but lets assume they complete their financing and construction is near completion by April 2011- sometime between now and then there should be a major rerating of this company.
So lets hope the gold price stays up till then.
Cheers to all holders.
 
Today, 26 August 2010 trading in RED is approaching an exciting test:

There is a buffer of 3 million shares on offer at 12.5 cents which might be to safeguard a cap of 29.4 million shares sitting at 13 cents. This morning computer trading appears ready to test the buffer shares. One of the big issues for the capper* possibly losing shares in RED, clearly this is not the aim of the capper at all! IF RED trades at 13 cents in coming days this will be a real test for that capper.

Why is the BOT trading occurring today, I wonder if the insto's know that RED is about ready to complete its finance arrangement!

Exciting times maybe?

(*My view only re the capper of course)
 
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