Hi Guys, Interesting that Warrants at a 35% premium are shown as part of the finance package in the latest North America Presentation but do NOT get a mention in the earlier South East Asia Gold Presentation. So the company presumably became aware that Warrants would form part of the package between the two presentations. Given that they had promised an announcement, and the package has been offered, they would have no choice but to announce the package to the market. They have qualified any acceptance so the door probably remains open for a superior proposal, especially given they are using outside experts to review what has been offered. A bit frustrating for all! I see that there is quite a lot of negative opinion expressed by posters on HC. Understandable in some ways I guess but I still have confidence that we will get there as per the plan. Confirmation of Mapawa is likely to be the catalyst for the SP in the next few months. AB
VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
- Start date
Hi Anderbond, thanks for your post, in fact I failed to notice the point about the warrants, issued at 35% premium to share price (assumes 18.9 cps based on 14 cents price quoted in presentation), in that presentation. At least there is a reasonable premium, but I really can't understand the reasoning for management considering this style of financing, as this crosses the boundary between a more acceptable project finance proposal usual for project development (as Siana is) compared to the mezzanine equity style of financing more often offered for risky explorer type activities rather than project development.
I agree we should ultimately see the development of Siana, but there is a possibility that this proposal could take RED management longer to agree to, particularly if there are some alternatives still being considered! Without having full knowledge of the details of the offer, I hope that RED management do consider some alternatives, even if it requires a delay of a few months as I can't see a good reason to offer the bank upside, security and with a continuing threat on loan drawdown being withheld for the duration of development and probably still having pre-completion constraints monitored by the bank.
Your point regarding Mapawa remains the wildcard for RED, I would imagine that reporting of the first shallow holes is not far away now, and hopefully it will shed more positive light into the potential of the big'un lying dormant!
I agree we should ultimately see the development of Siana, but there is a possibility that this proposal could take RED management longer to agree to, particularly if there are some alternatives still being considered! Without having full knowledge of the details of the offer, I hope that RED management do consider some alternatives, even if it requires a delay of a few months as I can't see a good reason to offer the bank upside, security and with a continuing threat on loan drawdown being withheld for the duration of development and probably still having pre-completion constraints monitored by the bank.
Your point regarding Mapawa remains the wildcard for RED, I would imagine that reporting of the first shallow holes is not far away now, and hopefully it will shed more positive light into the potential of the big'un lying dormant!
Hi Beatle , have been pondering over the red finance offer and have come to the conclusion, the bank wants to make all the money with this offer {as usual} my thinking is the banks now have red over a ballel as the project construction has comenced and any bank knows that sooner or later they will need money , it will be the banks way... my thinking that red should have got this cat in the bag before the first sod had been turned, my thinking is red should go to the market with another 250 000 000 shares and borrow the rest the more traditional way without all the cons' and pro's , there are plenty of banks that would be happy to get just a 5% return {japanese banks} i hope red has something else up its sleve as the dodgy deal they have tabled could really hold the sp back......i also note another large crossing after 5pm @.135........regards fastbuck
Hi Fastbuck, and thanks for your thoughts. I agree with lots of what you say, and for us longer term holders its so bloody frustrating at the last hurdle. But I do have a few thoughts that ALL shareholders should consider, with the general consensus of the market suggesting that the RED share price will soften over the next days - be forewarned!
Siana is a very good gold project, it has more that 1 million ounces of gold available, at low cost of production, and based on the current reserves has an NPV based on bankable feasibility study of AUS$300 million PLUS range based on 10% discount rate. In addition upside potential based on mineralisation intersections along strike and down plunge indicated from additional drilling. Those intersections have not been included in resource estimates and therefore are also not cash flow analysis estimates!
Development of Siana will proceed and that is the heart of the value of RED, DESPITE it currently trading at around 60 odd % discount to true value!
IF the bank is too greedy, and the debt route is too difficult, RED may consider an alternative equity funding!
Therefore, if RED pursues and announces some alternative funding route then I certainly would not want to be dropping shares at present! Those sellers will either lose out on the quick turn around or have to scramble to buy shares to get back in! That will only add more to the share price move up!
Siana is a very good gold project, it has more that 1 million ounces of gold available, at low cost of production, and based on the current reserves has an NPV based on bankable feasibility study of AUS$300 million PLUS range based on 10% discount rate. In addition upside potential based on mineralisation intersections along strike and down plunge indicated from additional drilling. Those intersections have not been included in resource estimates and therefore are also not cash flow analysis estimates!
Development of Siana will proceed and that is the heart of the value of RED, DESPITE it currently trading at around 60 odd % discount to true value!
IF the bank is too greedy, and the debt route is too difficult, RED may consider an alternative equity funding!
Therefore, if RED pursues and announces some alternative funding route then I certainly would not want to be dropping shares at present! Those sellers will either lose out on the quick turn around or have to scramble to buy shares to get back in! That will only add more to the share price move up!
Beatle , my thoughts on finance again, i don't think red will take it up, for one if they were you would think they would have done a trading halt before releasing it to the market {surly they would have been breifed on it and already know they wo'nt be taking it up} 2nd the market realy didn't react at all, as there were no massive sell of and volume was what could now be regarded as normal.......i think its back to the drawing board for finance.....next few days could see some loose fruit fall to the ground which i will be more than happy to pick up....
Disclaimer____________ "I have never sold any red shares"
Disclaimer____________ "I have never sold any red shares"
Hi Fastbuck - your thoughts are interesting re whether they will take up the finance offer.
Since it was announced I have been wondering if they had known for a long time or not, the fact that they had known about the warrants prior to the N American trip a week and a half earlier makes me wonder exactly how much they knew at that stage. And of course we don't know the exact details of the offer from the bank to make a fully informed opinion. But I agree with you that they are unlikely to accept it so quickly - obviously there will be a time limit on the offer so I am sure they will want to leave it till the last minute, and I'm of the view that they will seek alternatives until the last possible time to make the decision on the offer. And of course i hope they get another alternative that possibly involves a gold loan (pre-delivery of gold or whatever they want to call it!) and I also don't care if they have to commit to some more hedging additional to take of the gold loan, as the current gold price makes a hedging lock in significant profits anyway.
I do certainly believe that anyone dropping shares now runs the risk of losing them for good if RED pulls a deal out of hat which pushes the price up - now that we have had some bad news and the market has absorbed it without putting too much pressure on the share price, I can't see them dropping much more but i can see them rising quickly if they surprise the market with a positive deal being announced!
Since it was announced I have been wondering if they had known for a long time or not, the fact that they had known about the warrants prior to the N American trip a week and a half earlier makes me wonder exactly how much they knew at that stage. And of course we don't know the exact details of the offer from the bank to make a fully informed opinion. But I agree with you that they are unlikely to accept it so quickly - obviously there will be a time limit on the offer so I am sure they will want to leave it till the last minute, and I'm of the view that they will seek alternatives until the last possible time to make the decision on the offer. And of course i hope they get another alternative that possibly involves a gold loan (pre-delivery of gold or whatever they want to call it!) and I also don't care if they have to commit to some more hedging additional to take of the gold loan, as the current gold price makes a hedging lock in significant profits anyway.
I do certainly believe that anyone dropping shares now runs the risk of losing them for good if RED pulls a deal out of hat which pushes the price up - now that we have had some bad news and the market has absorbed it without putting too much pressure on the share price, I can't see them dropping much more but i can see them rising quickly if they surprise the market with a positive deal being announced!
Talked to the CFO at RED 5 office (joe ?) here in Perth last week when their announcement came out.
He certainly wasn't doing cartwheels over the bank's offer and inferred the final offer received was not the same as they believed it to be at their last meetings with the bank.
I asked re the quantity of warrants and he said that was still a point of discussion. The board will review and decide and will do this soon in his opinion, but he certainly made no effort to "sell" the bank's package as a great alternative.
He did keep stressing they have enough money in the bank to continue with development, so their progress and timetables will not be delayed should they choose to pursue another financial option, and they are not under time pressure to get finance in the immediate future.
He certainly wasn't doing cartwheels over the bank's offer and inferred the final offer received was not the same as they believed it to be at their last meetings with the bank.
I asked re the quantity of warrants and he said that was still a point of discussion. The board will review and decide and will do this soon in his opinion, but he certainly made no effort to "sell" the bank's package as a great alternative.
He did keep stressing they have enough money in the bank to continue with development, so their progress and timetables will not be delayed should they choose to pursue another financial option, and they are not under time pressure to get finance in the immediate future.
Never got into talking about alternative finance packages, just general talk about pro & cons of various types of financing.
Main points made were:
Joe believed a decision on the Bank offer would be made soon and that they are in a strong financial position so no matter what the decision, ongoing operations wouldn't be affected
Main points made were:
Joe believed a decision on the Bank offer would be made soon and that they are in a strong financial position so no matter what the decision, ongoing operations wouldn't be affected
Hi Beatle and others, Interesting slide in the SP of RED last few days. Further top up opportunity IMO! I see that some contributors on HC are getting a little worked up, blaming management for all sorts of things. Some have sold out or are saying they have/will. Need patience in a difficult and tricky market I feel. My perspective for what it is worth covers a few areas:
1. The finance announcement did not provide any positive vibes because of the somewhat reticent feel in comments made. Moreover the finance package had been part of a number of presentations made so there was no real sense of progress. In fact the wording in the announcement bordered on negative so there was little chance to see any kind of kickup to the SP.
2. If a check is made of some of the other gold stocks both large and small, it is fairly clear that the gold sector has started to" paddle". Examples are NCM, CGX and in particular MML. LGL is holding due to the takeover offer. In an earlier post I speculated that the sector may have lost the interest of the market (temporarily or otherwise). In a subdued climate, it is unlikely that an emerging producer will maintain strong interest when the first gold pour is still a little time away and there is still a lot to be done. Thus IMO we are unlikely to see much happen with the SP unless there is further positive news on the Mapawa front. If that happens then we may see the SP kick up, the extent would depend on the news.
3. I remain confident about the eventual level of the SP reflecting the underlying value. Drivers are likely to be getting into production, a resumption of market interest in the gold sector, positive news on drill results for Mapawa, or the possibility of a takeover. On this aspect, I feel that a takeover would only be a possibility if Mapawa started to look like it was a truly huge resource.
So the present SP weakness will undoubtedly shake out some short termers. I do not believe though that volumes represent institutional selling of any magnitude, more likely there are institutions "playing" the SP in an effort to pick up more stock at bargain prices.
Cheers. AB
1. The finance announcement did not provide any positive vibes because of the somewhat reticent feel in comments made. Moreover the finance package had been part of a number of presentations made so there was no real sense of progress. In fact the wording in the announcement bordered on negative so there was little chance to see any kind of kickup to the SP.
2. If a check is made of some of the other gold stocks both large and small, it is fairly clear that the gold sector has started to" paddle". Examples are NCM, CGX and in particular MML. LGL is holding due to the takeover offer. In an earlier post I speculated that the sector may have lost the interest of the market (temporarily or otherwise). In a subdued climate, it is unlikely that an emerging producer will maintain strong interest when the first gold pour is still a little time away and there is still a lot to be done. Thus IMO we are unlikely to see much happen with the SP unless there is further positive news on the Mapawa front. If that happens then we may see the SP kick up, the extent would depend on the news.
3. I remain confident about the eventual level of the SP reflecting the underlying value. Drivers are likely to be getting into production, a resumption of market interest in the gold sector, positive news on drill results for Mapawa, or the possibility of a takeover. On this aspect, I feel that a takeover would only be a possibility if Mapawa started to look like it was a truly huge resource.
So the present SP weakness will undoubtedly shake out some short termers. I do not believe though that volumes represent institutional selling of any magnitude, more likely there are institutions "playing" the SP in an effort to pick up more stock at bargain prices.
Cheers. AB
A P.S. to my post a few moments ago. I overlooked mentioning that the sale by Ross Stanley might now start to look quite "smart" in the current climate. That is not to say that Baker Steel have made a mistake, simply that Stanley might have seen the opportunity to sell the entire stake at 16c which would have been difficult to achieve on market. As I have previously said, Baker Steel have a strong reputation as gold fund managers so they must have been happy to cough up the money to take up a significant stake. AB
Hi Anderbond, I concur with most of your points, but wonder whether the selling has been over-done compared to the rest of the market for smaller gold stocks. If that is the case any move upward by the general gold sector could see RED move up a bit more relative to others.
I do still believe, however, that once the final funding package is bedded down, and hopefully its an alternative to what has been indicated for the Deutsche offer (notwithstanding us not being given details re the warrants), then RED share price should move back up as the insto's support it more. After all, once funding is confirmed then its only a matter of time for Siana to get into production, and so far we have been advised that first gold should be produced in April 2011 (now only 8 and a bit months away!).
In addition, if Mapawa shallow drilling does confirm mineralisation closer to surface, then I believe, whether the market wants to accept it or not, RED price will be worth considerably more than the Siana DCF analysis (which currently based on gold price is worth 35 odd cents to RED).
Any further weakness in RED share price, subject to gold remaining above US$1,100, means its a real bargain if Siana development goes ahead as expected.
I do still believe, however, that once the final funding package is bedded down, and hopefully its an alternative to what has been indicated for the Deutsche offer (notwithstanding us not being given details re the warrants), then RED share price should move back up as the insto's support it more. After all, once funding is confirmed then its only a matter of time for Siana to get into production, and so far we have been advised that first gold should be produced in April 2011 (now only 8 and a bit months away!).
In addition, if Mapawa shallow drilling does confirm mineralisation closer to surface, then I believe, whether the market wants to accept it or not, RED price will be worth considerably more than the Siana DCF analysis (which currently based on gold price is worth 35 odd cents to RED).
Any further weakness in RED share price, subject to gold remaining above US$1,100, means its a real bargain if Siana development goes ahead as expected.
Based on very patchy information I believe that senior RED management are currently in discussions with other groups that maybe able to provide a better alternative to the DB offer. If that is the case, then the current price is a bargain once an alternative deal is announced (I emphasise IF an alternative deal is announced).
I still stick by my view that once the funding is bedded down, and it maybe of debt, equity or a mix of both, then RED will commence its push upwards, unlikely to ever test current share price lows!
I still stick by my view that once the funding is bedded down, and it maybe of debt, equity or a mix of both, then RED will commence its push upwards, unlikely to ever test current share price lows!
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Dear Beatle
Thanks for your excellent contribution to this thread.
Could yu please be more specific if your patchy information was from own research, hearsay or assumption reading through published / paid newsletter or just a wishful thought.
Not critical about what you said but need to appreciate we all have to support our information so as to provide as facts as possible
I was reading here RED is an excellent stock but then why it is drooping down even a large volume is there ?
Cheers
Hi Miner, and thanks for your kind words.
Regarding my "patchy information", it is SLIGHTLY more than hope (Lol), its what you may call putting a few different facts together ("patchwork") to then come up with something that is I would say has a reasonable chance of being factual.
From one source I was made aware that the Chairman of RED traveled to London last week on unknown business (also recognising that he is involved with a number of different companies, not just RED). I found out at week's end that the MD of RED was also in London at that same time. Thus it is more than likely they were together in London on business.
The Deutsche Bank proposal has been offered by the Sydney based branch, and therefore communications for RED with DB are likely to be with Sydney, not to any other overseas branch.
Since the funding of RED to complete delivery of Siana development is clearly the most important consideration for the company in the immediate future ("The Board strategy is to focus on the development of Siana", based on its 5th August 2010 announcement), I suggest that RED management has gone to to London to pursue alternatives to the DB offer. Why else would they have traveled so far (so soon after having been to N America on a roadshow presentation).
Its also interesting to note but possibly a coincidence that Baker Steel, recent acquirers of 6.57% of RED, has its main office in London.
With regard to RED share price falling, well I would say and most posters I am sure would agree, that the price fall was immediately after the announcement of the Deutsche Bank offer, which was not as attractive as most would have expected, and that RED had indicated "The Company, together with external advisors, is reviewing the detail; in particular, condition precedent project milestones which dictate the timing of the loan draw downs and the extent of security property." RED didn't state categorically that it would accept the offer, and thus the market was of the opinion that it was not necessarily the best offer for the company. I believe it has opened the door to other offers being considered, thus this London trip maybe something along those lines.
IF Baker Steel are a party to those negotiations then it would be interesting to know who has sold a few odd shares in the past week at strategic times, to ensure RED remained under water! (Substantial shareholders do not have to disclose a change in shareholdings to the market until it reaches a 1% differential to the shareholdings previously disclosed, but of course RED management would know that after 3 days so its unlikely that its happening). Thus I am not suggesting that Baker Steel are sellers at present, just presenting the interesting situation that could occur.
In my view, once RED does bed down the outstanding finance, and also noting that RED has treasury funds sufficient for a few more months to maintain development momentum at Siana to ensure an April 2011 gold pour, it is likely that RED share price will recover all that it lost in the past week plus some more knowing that Siana will be constructed as planned.
The only outstanding uncertainty, if an alternative funding offer is accepted, will be the terms and conditions, and what mix of debt plus equity. Clearly any additionaly equity contribution will have an immediate impact on valuation per share and earnings per share, but since RED is already trading at a considerable discount to DCF valuation, there is no doubt RED will remain at bargain basement prices. In fact I have run a series of DCF valuations based on full equity being the source of funding and know that RED remains very attractively priced at present - I have also bought more shares at the current share price due to my own confidence of how things will progress for RED.
Regarding my "patchy information", it is SLIGHTLY more than hope (Lol), its what you may call putting a few different facts together ("patchwork") to then come up with something that is I would say has a reasonable chance of being factual.
From one source I was made aware that the Chairman of RED traveled to London last week on unknown business (also recognising that he is involved with a number of different companies, not just RED). I found out at week's end that the MD of RED was also in London at that same time. Thus it is more than likely they were together in London on business.
The Deutsche Bank proposal has been offered by the Sydney based branch, and therefore communications for RED with DB are likely to be with Sydney, not to any other overseas branch.
Since the funding of RED to complete delivery of Siana development is clearly the most important consideration for the company in the immediate future ("The Board strategy is to focus on the development of Siana", based on its 5th August 2010 announcement), I suggest that RED management has gone to to London to pursue alternatives to the DB offer. Why else would they have traveled so far (so soon after having been to N America on a roadshow presentation).
Its also interesting to note but possibly a coincidence that Baker Steel, recent acquirers of 6.57% of RED, has its main office in London.
With regard to RED share price falling, well I would say and most posters I am sure would agree, that the price fall was immediately after the announcement of the Deutsche Bank offer, which was not as attractive as most would have expected, and that RED had indicated "The Company, together with external advisors, is reviewing the detail; in particular, condition precedent project milestones which dictate the timing of the loan draw downs and the extent of security property." RED didn't state categorically that it would accept the offer, and thus the market was of the opinion that it was not necessarily the best offer for the company. I believe it has opened the door to other offers being considered, thus this London trip maybe something along those lines.
IF Baker Steel are a party to those negotiations then it would be interesting to know who has sold a few odd shares in the past week at strategic times, to ensure RED remained under water! (Substantial shareholders do not have to disclose a change in shareholdings to the market until it reaches a 1% differential to the shareholdings previously disclosed, but of course RED management would know that after 3 days so its unlikely that its happening). Thus I am not suggesting that Baker Steel are sellers at present, just presenting the interesting situation that could occur.
In my view, once RED does bed down the outstanding finance, and also noting that RED has treasury funds sufficient for a few more months to maintain development momentum at Siana to ensure an April 2011 gold pour, it is likely that RED share price will recover all that it lost in the past week plus some more knowing that Siana will be constructed as planned.
The only outstanding uncertainty, if an alternative funding offer is accepted, will be the terms and conditions, and what mix of debt plus equity. Clearly any additionaly equity contribution will have an immediate impact on valuation per share and earnings per share, but since RED is already trading at a considerable discount to DCF valuation, there is no doubt RED will remain at bargain basement prices. In fact I have run a series of DCF valuations based on full equity being the source of funding and know that RED remains very attractively priced at present - I have also bought more shares at the current share price due to my own confidence of how things will progress for RED.
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Good stuff Beatle
Very thoughtful narrative information making it 2+2 = 5 and just not 4.
Thanks for taking time to go through the basis of your assumptions and how you related those assumptions into more factual findings.
Let us hope RED fulfils what you projected and what I read from your posting that I am thinking the options in favour of rejecting DB offer would be get another suitor or raise equity to increase cash in hand.
One of our great participants from ASX is right there at RED site.
He / She due to his / her involvement in RED has not articipated in RED thread to keep him / her out of controversy.
I am sure our ASF friend is watching from side lines to make sure our discussions are not off the mark.
(BTW I also thought that CIA needs your services too
)
Very thoughtful narrative information making it 2+2 = 5 and just not 4.
Thanks for taking time to go through the basis of your assumptions and how you related those assumptions into more factual findings.
Let us hope RED fulfils what you projected and what I read from your posting that I am thinking the options in favour of rejecting DB offer would be get another suitor or raise equity to increase cash in hand.
One of our great participants from ASX is right there at RED site.
He / She due to his / her involvement in RED has not articipated in RED thread to keep him / her out of controversy.
I am sure our ASF friend is watching from side lines to make sure our discussions are not off the mark.
(BTW I also thought that CIA needs your services too
)Thanks once again Miner, and I'm happy to maintain posting on RED whilst i have any new information to provide, but of course its been the same old story for a long while now, and most of the older shareholders that post clearly are as frustrated (but accustomed to the hard yards!) as I am and have been for a while especially as this last funding hurdle for Siana has been a long drawn out affair.
But its important to note that this hurdle is like many others that have been confronted and overcome by RED over the past 18 months through dogged efforts of management. Things have definitely changed for the better over that period, with RED technically related to its Philippines assets, along with the corporate/financial side:
1. Siana has been the subject of an intense feasibility study that has confirmed economic and technical viability at US$800/oz (and probably lower);
2. Siana resources are actually greater than the current resources/reserves estimated as the last holes having some very significant mineralised intersections (wide intercepts of high grades, eg Hole SMDD134 -
5 metres at 25.4 g/t gold and Hole SMDD135 - 3 metres at
31.6 g/t gold were too late to be included in the estimation and indicated a likely extension to the north);
3. Mapawa LSY prospect has confirmed the existence of long intercepts of + 1 g/t Au, within a porphyry host that will likely extend close to surface - the first couple of shallower holes are due to be announced soon;
4. A considerable increase in shareholdings by insto's and fund managers of high repute within the resource investment community;
5. A strong cash position in RED to maintain both the development works at Siana plus Mapawa exploration for the coming months.
RED's financial position is very important with the ongoing evaluation of Mapawa, to allow RED to carry on alone, so that it doesn't have to rely on farming out of that asset at a stage when considerable value adding has/will(?) progress(ed).
I know that the market has not fully appreciated the value of Siana based on the current gold price. Nor do I believe that the market recognises the potential of Mapawa at this stage, and the fact that there are other porphyry style hosts similar to the LSY host (which is similar to the Boyongan project owned by Philex) situated within both the Siana and Mapawa MPSA's, (eg Madja amongst others - interestingly even below Siana there is a similar dioritic host but not sure whether there is any associated mineralisation as this has not been fully investigated).
With respect to your comments about the CIA and the conclusion of 2 + 2 = 5its an extraordinarily good analogy to the value of RED (but IN REVERSE!), ie
Siana = 35 cps
Mapawa = 10cps (? Only at this stage)
Thus Siana + Mapawa = 12.5 cents (current market valued price!). Absolutely crazy maths!!! Lol
But its important to note that this hurdle is like many others that have been confronted and overcome by RED over the past 18 months through dogged efforts of management. Things have definitely changed for the better over that period, with RED technically related to its Philippines assets, along with the corporate/financial side:
1. Siana has been the subject of an intense feasibility study that has confirmed economic and technical viability at US$800/oz (and probably lower);
2. Siana resources are actually greater than the current resources/reserves estimated as the last holes having some very significant mineralised intersections (wide intercepts of high grades, eg Hole SMDD134 -
5 metres at 25.4 g/t gold and Hole SMDD135 - 3 metres at
31.6 g/t gold were too late to be included in the estimation and indicated a likely extension to the north);
3. Mapawa LSY prospect has confirmed the existence of long intercepts of + 1 g/t Au, within a porphyry host that will likely extend close to surface - the first couple of shallower holes are due to be announced soon;
4. A considerable increase in shareholdings by insto's and fund managers of high repute within the resource investment community;
5. A strong cash position in RED to maintain both the development works at Siana plus Mapawa exploration for the coming months.
RED's financial position is very important with the ongoing evaluation of Mapawa, to allow RED to carry on alone, so that it doesn't have to rely on farming out of that asset at a stage when considerable value adding has/will(?) progress(ed).
I know that the market has not fully appreciated the value of Siana based on the current gold price. Nor do I believe that the market recognises the potential of Mapawa at this stage, and the fact that there are other porphyry style hosts similar to the LSY host (which is similar to the Boyongan project owned by Philex) situated within both the Siana and Mapawa MPSA's, (eg Madja amongst others - interestingly even below Siana there is a similar dioritic host but not sure whether there is any associated mineralisation as this has not been fully investigated).
With respect to your comments about the CIA and the conclusion of 2 + 2 = 5its an extraordinarily good analogy to the value of RED (but IN REVERSE!), ie
Siana = 35 cps
Mapawa = 10cps (? Only at this stage)
Thus Siana + Mapawa = 12.5 cents (current market valued price!). Absolutely crazy maths!!! Lol
In reference to some other posters regarding RED:
I did not see what Smity wrote before it was moderated, but have read a following post from Fatsoh. I am most grateful to Fatsoh for his posts as he obviously has followed the company for at least some of those more recent years as well -Fatsoh, in fact you are quite right that over the years I have been very frustrated for long periods of time with RED management, and I was never afraid to make my frustrations public, both in chat forums PLUS directly towards management. Management at RED has slowly evolved to its current group of directors, but the MD has now been in place since 2001.
More recent holders of RED will not realise the longer term frustrations endured by the company (and therefore its shareholders) in procuring the bankable feasibility study and the environmental clearances at Siana which have taken a long time to be finalised. And on many occasions RED set out a timeframe to the market to achieve particular milestones but always seemed to under-deliver. Some of those instances were the first resource estimate for Siana, and the MPSA grant of Mapawa which took years to be issued, and the funding anticipated with the Soc Generale offer of finance that followed from the first big placement of $35 million in 2007.
Most of those frustrations are now behind RED, and the past 18 months has seen considerable progress to the point now that you know the plant and mine will be developed - the backstop of the Deutsche Bank/Ashmore offer ensures Siana WILL finally deliver gold, BUT I'm still holding out that RED can pull a rabbit out of the hat and substitute that offer with something more commercially appealing.
Of course I'm emotionally attached to RED, I have held a considerable number of shares in the company for many years, and have lived and breathed each action of the company over that time - in fact when I first held shares in the then Greenstone Resources it didn't even have the Siana gold project in its portfolio, it was sitting at 2.5 cents with a few exploration assets in WA. Nothing more! Its market capitalisation was around $1.8 million!
And just to confirm, I am connected to RED AS A SHAREHOLDER ONLY, and in that capacity I know all the older management team (I also know both Barry Bolitho and Kevin Dundo from other companies as well), but I have never been an employee or consultant or part of management at RED.
As for emotional attachment to RED, that does not mean that I don't keep a close eye on the financial and other issues of any company that I invest in. In the case of RED its fundamentals have been overlooked by many probably as a result of the lack of performance (not just share price performance but also in company activity) in the past along with the Philippines factor, but the last 18 months has turned that non-performance around and MML lies testimony to how the Philippines factor can be overcome with success on the ground. Now with anything like a 9 month lead time to first gold pour, the fundamentals for Siana are as impressive as you will see with any new gold mining venture, and with a completely different set of new substantial shareholders on board, the price is set to soar once the market sees the writing on the wall.
Any current shareholders still with doubts and considering to dump shares be forewarned, you may well rue that action. Lets just see who is right over the coming months!
I did not see what Smity wrote before it was moderated, but have read a following post from Fatsoh. I am most grateful to Fatsoh for his posts as he obviously has followed the company for at least some of those more recent years as well -Fatsoh, in fact you are quite right that over the years I have been very frustrated for long periods of time with RED management, and I was never afraid to make my frustrations public, both in chat forums PLUS directly towards management. Management at RED has slowly evolved to its current group of directors, but the MD has now been in place since 2001.
More recent holders of RED will not realise the longer term frustrations endured by the company (and therefore its shareholders) in procuring the bankable feasibility study and the environmental clearances at Siana which have taken a long time to be finalised. And on many occasions RED set out a timeframe to the market to achieve particular milestones but always seemed to under-deliver. Some of those instances were the first resource estimate for Siana, and the MPSA grant of Mapawa which took years to be issued, and the funding anticipated with the Soc Generale offer of finance that followed from the first big placement of $35 million in 2007.
Most of those frustrations are now behind RED, and the past 18 months has seen considerable progress to the point now that you know the plant and mine will be developed - the backstop of the Deutsche Bank/Ashmore offer ensures Siana WILL finally deliver gold, BUT I'm still holding out that RED can pull a rabbit out of the hat and substitute that offer with something more commercially appealing.
Of course I'm emotionally attached to RED, I have held a considerable number of shares in the company for many years, and have lived and breathed each action of the company over that time - in fact when I first held shares in the then Greenstone Resources it didn't even have the Siana gold project in its portfolio, it was sitting at 2.5 cents with a few exploration assets in WA. Nothing more! Its market capitalisation was around $1.8 million!
And just to confirm, I am connected to RED AS A SHAREHOLDER ONLY, and in that capacity I know all the older management team (I also know both Barry Bolitho and Kevin Dundo from other companies as well), but I have never been an employee or consultant or part of management at RED.
As for emotional attachment to RED, that does not mean that I don't keep a close eye on the financial and other issues of any company that I invest in. In the case of RED its fundamentals have been overlooked by many probably as a result of the lack of performance (not just share price performance but also in company activity) in the past along with the Philippines factor, but the last 18 months has turned that non-performance around and MML lies testimony to how the Philippines factor can be overcome with success on the ground. Now with anything like a 9 month lead time to first gold pour, the fundamentals for Siana are as impressive as you will see with any new gold mining venture, and with a completely different set of new substantial shareholders on board, the price is set to soar once the market sees the writing on the wall.
Any current shareholders still with doubts and considering to dump shares be forewarned, you may well rue that action. Lets just see who is right over the coming months!
Hi Beatle, thanks for your comments. It is good to hear more about past frustrations with RED/Greenstone. It is a little disturbing to hear some of the recent comments that a few posters are prepared to make. One has to wonder why some work themselves into some sort of "rage" over the subdued performance of the SP and indulge in unfortunate language. These posters are clearly not cut out to be long term investors in anything. Maybe they are opportunistic day traders that thought they could turn a quick profit and have been caught out. Who knows and to be totally honest, who cares?
Keep up the good work Beatle, you have been of great benefit to most of us. AB
Keep up the good work Beatle, you have been of great benefit to most of us. AB
Thanks Anderbond, and I agree with your sentiments completely.
One thing to note with the "knocker type posters" is that the first reaction of many readers to those posts is to say to those people - "well if you have so many complaints and criticisms, why don't you get out of the situation by selling your shares!".
But actually before things started moving in the right direction I WAS also one of those knocker posters in RED, and wanting to vent my frustrations as I believed RED had to either change its board and management or its strategy. The reason I held in there at that time was because I believed that RED was a bargain and didn't want to lose that chance of its share price moving up at some point. With these newer "knocker posters " maybe its the same for them, although they are frustrated, maybe why they don't sell is BECAUSE they actually also agree with us that RED is still a BARGAIN at current prices!
And unlike in times gone past, the time of moving into gold production is getting closer, the line in the sand is already drawn, and RED will go up within the next 9 months (and I still don't have a problem predicting it will move up sooner within that 9 months period than at the end of 9 months!). So NO bsredoje, I do not mean years, I am talking about my own expectations which are MONTHS not years!
One thing to note with the "knocker type posters" is that the first reaction of many readers to those posts is to say to those people - "well if you have so many complaints and criticisms, why don't you get out of the situation by selling your shares!".
But actually before things started moving in the right direction I WAS also one of those knocker posters in RED, and wanting to vent my frustrations as I believed RED had to either change its board and management or its strategy. The reason I held in there at that time was because I believed that RED was a bargain and didn't want to lose that chance of its share price moving up at some point. With these newer "knocker posters " maybe its the same for them, although they are frustrated, maybe why they don't sell is BECAUSE they actually also agree with us that RED is still a BARGAIN at current prices!
And unlike in times gone past, the time of moving into gold production is getting closer, the line in the sand is already drawn, and RED will go up within the next 9 months (and I still don't have a problem predicting it will move up sooner within that 9 months period than at the end of 9 months!). So NO bsredoje, I do not mean years, I am talking about my own expectations which are MONTHS not years!