tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Rising nicely on low volume.
CURRENTLY sellers have withdrawn.
CURRENTLY sellers have withdrawn.
VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
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Would say these are the levels to broken.
Then we have valuations coming in to play. Thats where all the opinions are.
I will sell when I see a strong up day on high volume. Good luck all.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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It is high but not extreme.
5 x 10 day average is extreme.
It is very common for a pause in a climb after a high volume day.
Infact as I pointed out an inside day is common.
I concur with Jeff on the next line of Resistance.
Often volume and price ranges after high volume wide range days tell more about
the immediate likely actin than the high volume day itself.
Im not selling on this bar.---personally.---good day though.
Another good day for RED, after such a long time waiting with the teething problems during commissioning.
My view is that RED will require another good report confirming the ramp up of gold production is continuing for it to be pushed substantially higher, and maybe that will be as long as end of Feb as advised by RED in the gold pour announcement. IF that ramp up continues as we would expect and hope, then RED should be testing $2.40 and above soon after. And in terms of valuations, if you want simple guidance to what it could do, just note that medium sized gold miners producing around 100,000 ozs give or take some, tend to have market caps in excess of $500 million - RED is almost half that market cap at present, thus a doubling in price from here is very possible in a short timeframe once confirmation of gold production ramp up is continuing.
Oh by the way Boggo, actually my accounting was very accurate - I was referring to your twin who suggested it would fall to $1.20. But as others have posted, this is the RED thread, and I'm much happier posting re RED. After all its now starting to finally get some traction in the market.
My view is that RED will require another good report confirming the ramp up of gold production is continuing for it to be pushed substantially higher, and maybe that will be as long as end of Feb as advised by RED in the gold pour announcement. IF that ramp up continues as we would expect and hope, then RED should be testing $2.40 and above soon after. And in terms of valuations, if you want simple guidance to what it could do, just note that medium sized gold miners producing around 100,000 ozs give or take some, tend to have market caps in excess of $500 million - RED is almost half that market cap at present, thus a doubling in price from here is very possible in a short timeframe once confirmation of gold production ramp up is continuing.
Oh by the way Boggo, actually my accounting was very accurate - I was referring to your twin who suggested it would fall to $1.20. But as others have posted, this is the RED thread, and I'm much happier posting re RED. After all its now starting to finally get some traction in the market.
Hi all, hi Beatle...
Mate have a look at the RED 5 website. Petra Capital and Casimir Capital have put out further broker reports. 1 down grading, and 1 up grading, after yesterdays 228 ounce gold/silver block, lol.
Anyhow interesting, have a read..
Cheers Moit.
Mate have a look at the RED 5 website. Petra Capital and Casimir Capital have put out further broker reports. 1 down grading, and 1 up grading, after yesterdays 228 ounce gold/silver block, lol.
Anyhow interesting, have a read..
Cheers Moit.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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If your going to quote me don't be selective.
I said that if support was taken out RED could visit $1.20 infect even lower.
I also said
I'll cop whatever you want to throw at me but don't quote to suit yourself.
Got that " Chief " ??
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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QUESTION
Learned Fundamentalists.
The pik of the ingot poured the other day looks pretty average.
I was under the impression purity = value.
From what I saw you wouldn't see $1700 an ounce for that!
Frankly it looks like something a few under grads could come up with.
So why all the who ha
Looks like a lot of work from here to produce a quality product or is that as good as it gets?
Learned Fundamentalists.
The pik of the ingot poured the other day looks pretty average.
I was under the impression purity = value.
From what I saw you wouldn't see $1700 an ounce for that!
Frankly it looks like something a few under grads could come up with.
So why all the who ha
Looks like a lot of work from here to produce a quality product or is that as good as it gets?
Tech from my observations, the bar is from very low grade stock piles. If it where me id keep it, cause its the very first bar produced at Siana. But from my understanding the bar will be melted down again, (silver extracted) to produce a 99.9% gold bar of (actual gold). That of course would be sold. But just my thoughts. DYOR, and if anyone can assist please do...
Cheers Moit.
Cheers Moit.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Hmm if that's the case sounds like
" We better produce SOMETHING to settle the Indians "
I wouldn't be happy JAN!
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It's a real pity that some of these threads end up with useless 'I said, he said' and other modified versions past reality in attempts to discredit other opinions.
There is a lot to be learned from both the fundamental and technical approach when it comes to stocks such as RED.
The reality however is that it has a potentially good future but at the moment it is just a 20 cent trading stock and that has been confirmed by its behaviour since late 2009.
The fact that it is priced at ove $2 is just a function of a decision to consolidate its price, no relevance whatsoever to numerous fundamentally sound stocks that are trading at around the same price.
At the moment it is achieving more by behaving in a manner that smart tech traders such as tech/a can capitalise on its behaviour.
This may not suit everyone and may not be what everyone would like to believe but it is the reality while it plays by the rules of retracement, expansion, support and resistance it is a lucrative short term exercise.
How people want to make money out of this is up to the individual and while we have the best forum in existence in Aust it is a pity that erratic stocks seem to create erratic and erroneous statements and quotes which indirectly are an attack on individuals who could easily have said "I told you so".
No one individual 'owns' the RED thread, it is available for all to comment on and there will be numerous opinions and some very good homework both from the fundamental and technical perspective.
Below is an example of both a technically based statement on the 29th Nov and a fundamentally based statement on the 30th which highlights the fact that this is a technical stock at the moment but at some point the fundamental factors will take over.
The chart below is reality.
Lets play the stock how it works best at the moment.
29th November -
30th November -
(click to expand)
There is a lot to be learned from both the fundamental and technical approach when it comes to stocks such as RED.
The reality however is that it has a potentially good future but at the moment it is just a 20 cent trading stock and that has been confirmed by its behaviour since late 2009.
The fact that it is priced at ove $2 is just a function of a decision to consolidate its price, no relevance whatsoever to numerous fundamentally sound stocks that are trading at around the same price.
At the moment it is achieving more by behaving in a manner that smart tech traders such as tech/a can capitalise on its behaviour.
This may not suit everyone and may not be what everyone would like to believe but it is the reality while it plays by the rules of retracement, expansion, support and resistance it is a lucrative short term exercise.
How people want to make money out of this is up to the individual and while we have the best forum in existence in Aust it is a pity that erratic stocks seem to create erratic and erroneous statements and quotes which indirectly are an attack on individuals who could easily have said "I told you so".
No one individual 'owns' the RED thread, it is available for all to comment on and there will be numerous opinions and some very good homework both from the fundamental and technical perspective.
Below is an example of both a technically based statement on the 29th Nov and a fundamentally based statement on the 30th which highlights the fact that this is a technical stock at the moment but at some point the fundamental factors will take over.
The chart below is reality.
Lets play the stock how it works best at the moment.
29th November -
30th November -
(click to expand)
Attachments
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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I have escaped at $2.23 and $2.24.
Nice little trade again.
Nice little trade again.
Nice work Tech. Looks like you pick about the right price to sell before RED dropped back down to as low as $2.14. Now currently $2.17. At what point would you re-enter?
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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I dont know yet.
But I ALWAYS place a conditional buy order at 1-2 ticks above the current high.
Just like I did at $1.95.
See I get exits wrong often enough to have learnt.
"Get out early enough to place a conditional order close enough for a turn of bullishness to be exploited"
In doing so I get it wrong from time to time. I do have conditions which must be met to execute a sell. Doing it early locks in max profit and if it turns is not that painful with lost profit from getting out prematurely.
You can see what I mean with my missing of my conditional buy at $1.73----Bugga.
That said.
If RED continues to drop/consolidate I will be dictated to by price action and volumes and will withdraw the conditional order if I enter before it is triggered.
Ill keep following RED.
I know "The Chief" will be google eyed waiting for the next up date.
Here to please.
Cheers Tech
Yes i bought in again at $1.84 and yet to sell. Fairly high volume today and seems to have support at $2.15. I'm looking at selling that portion of RED at $2.30.
See what happens.
Another great day for RED, and yes Moit, as in your past commentary, so long as you can trade in and out of RED over the next while, picking the highs and lows as Tech/a etc are aiming to do, then for sure you will make a hell of a lot more out of your RED than I will do. And I would love to do it, but the issue for me now is that I believe that RED WILL deliver over the next few months if things go according to the feasibility study, thus I am too scared to be out at a time (even for a portion of my holdings) when it could be THE day that transforms RED into a more respectably priced gold producer. But for those who don't have such a concern then its clearly a good strategy because if you don't get full price then you won't be so concerned.
To answer Tech/a re the purity of the gold bar, don't be concerned by the amount of gold versus silver in the dore bar. Whatever the gold and silver is within that bar will be received by RED with its sales. We already know that there is a fair amount of silver with this gold deposit so that silver will come out at the same time within the same dore bars. And RED will get its sales of silver as well as gold from each bar. I could elaborate further but best to keep it simple for those who might not want a more technical answer. The only thing to note is that the quality of a dore bar is not relevant. Thus ANYONE who wants to use their ignorance to scaremonger and generalise that the gold is not worth keeping etc just proves my point that when someone sells their shares they then try to push the share price down so they can get back in more cheaply! That to me is proving their ingenuineness!!!
(IF you want something more technical (and more chemistry than I can recall myself!) there is much reading material on the subject of quality of dore etc, and all I will say is that the cyanide in the solution leaches out both gold and silver from the ore, and both are adsorbed by the carbon which in turn are recovered within the electrowinning process onsite. The recovery of silver is less than that of the gold, and at this stage we are still to find out what the final recovery of ROM ore is for both, and especially relevant is the recovery factor for gold.)
Oh and by the way, this first gold dore bar was recovered from essentially the leftovers of the previous mining back in late 1980's. Whatever that dore consisted of is unlikely to be exactly the same as that to be produced from this new mining campaign. The ROM ore at Siana project, with no Mapawa pit contribution, is expected to be of higher grade than this first low grade ore put through.
To answer Tech/a re the purity of the gold bar, don't be concerned by the amount of gold versus silver in the dore bar. Whatever the gold and silver is within that bar will be received by RED with its sales. We already know that there is a fair amount of silver with this gold deposit so that silver will come out at the same time within the same dore bars. And RED will get its sales of silver as well as gold from each bar. I could elaborate further but best to keep it simple for those who might not want a more technical answer. The only thing to note is that the quality of a dore bar is not relevant. Thus ANYONE who wants to use their ignorance to scaremonger and generalise that the gold is not worth keeping etc just proves my point that when someone sells their shares they then try to push the share price down so they can get back in more cheaply! That to me is proving their ingenuineness!!!
(IF you want something more technical (and more chemistry than I can recall myself!) there is much reading material on the subject of quality of dore etc, and all I will say is that the cyanide in the solution leaches out both gold and silver from the ore, and both are adsorbed by the carbon which in turn are recovered within the electrowinning process onsite. The recovery of silver is less than that of the gold, and at this stage we are still to find out what the final recovery of ROM ore is for both, and especially relevant is the recovery factor for gold.)
Oh and by the way, this first gold dore bar was recovered from essentially the leftovers of the previous mining back in late 1980's. Whatever that dore consisted of is unlikely to be exactly the same as that to be produced from this new mining campaign. The ROM ore at Siana project, with no Mapawa pit contribution, is expected to be of higher grade than this first low grade ore put through.
I should have also had it noted that RED's gold dore bars, just like all the rest of the gold mining industry, do not refine their gold onsite. They sell each gold dore bar to a gold refinery, for the gold and silver content assayed for each bar, and that offsite refinery produces either 99.5 or 99.99% gold bars from the dore. RED has already got its cash before that refinery decides to refine it to whatever quality, unless RED decides to keep a bullion account with the refinery or financial institution.
Hi all, hi Beatle...
Mate have a look at the RED 5 website. Petra Capital and Casimir Capital have put out further broker reports. 1 down grading, and 1 up grading, after yesterdays 228 ounce gold/silver block, lol.
Anyhow interesting, have a read..
Cheers Moit.
Hi Moit, yes its great to see that the brokers behind RED continue to recommend it as a Buy and up to a price around 50% higher than current price. But my view is that they continue to be guarded with their analysis knowing that RED has yet prove it can deliver performance at around feasibility study levels, let alone above them as is likely from the SAG mill onsite. This still depends upon the sticky ore situation, we are yet to hear about throughput rates that could get Siana humming at around 100,000 ozs and above within the next year or so (ie outside of feasibility study guidelines).
There are so many other factors that could influence RED's share price as well - once the plant is bedded down management must decide what is the final economic cutoff level for the new ore reserve based on the upgraded resource announced a few months ago. That could have the market really sharpening their pencils for RED as a takeover if the share price doesn't move up considerably in the next few months IMO.
Then as AB has indicated, Mapawa exploration which has been forgotten about by all at this stage. This could once again completely change the situation for the valuation of RED, allowing for such considerable upside.
I admit I am addicted to RED, but for good reason!