Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

VAU - Vault Minerals

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jah008 said:
I feel a bit warm and fuzzy. But Tech/A deserves a bit of the credit. I'm learning a lot from this fella in his tech analysis threads.
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Only Joshing---dont take my humor seriously----Im not looking for Cred!
 
tech/a said:
Only Joshing---don't take my humor seriously----I'm not looking for Cred!
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RED showing some resilience.
Being held up by low volume
This indicates lack of supply.
Current price action is also showing that we are likely to see
some consolidation in the near term. (Forgoing any price shocks
like Europe,production at 1000oz a week etc).

Watching on for the time being.
Have removed my buy stop order.
 
tech/a said:
RED showing some resilience.
Being held up by low volume
This indicates lack of supply.
Current price action is also showing that we are likely to see
some consolidation in the near term. (Forgoing any price shocks
like Europe,production at 1000oz a week etc).

Watching on for the time being.
Have removed my buy stop order.
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what price you thinking on jumping back on? do you mind if i ask what your buy stop order was?
 
Hi All, and good to read your commentary/advice/non-advice (lol) Jeff! IMO your commentary was a pretty good summary of recent and expected events etc, and I would like to add to it.

RED is like most other gold producers now, APART from the simple fact that its production history has only just begun, thus investors are still to be convinced that Siana has the capacity to deliver significant amounts of gold continuously at low cost, thus the complete re-rating according to its underlying valuation (and eventually a premium to that valuation!) is yet to happen. Thus IF its end of Feb statement of guidance that we expect next is based on confirmation that gold production won't be dogged by erratic throughput from hereon due to sticky ore THEN RED should move towards that valuation price, and provided the price of gold remains above US$1,200 or thereabouts then RED has a LOT more to go up than $2.30!!!

Its only once it gets to that underlying valuation price (and of course that varies according to whoever chooses whatever gold price for future years) that we probably will see RED move in train with the rest of the gold producers. So my view is that RED should move up over the next few months if the plant (and ore) behaves.

Of course the TA on the nanosecond trading is a different picture altogether, but seems to me most of the TA requires confirmation of movements that loses the chance to pick the highs and lows anyways. Its those highs and lows that we would all like to pick successfully but no one is able to do that. Even Tech/a who seems to know a lot about TA requires considerable confirmatory movements before making his move - do you agree Tech/a (that is not a cynical question, its my observation of your own apparent decision making in RED - for example it took you all the time for RED to move from around $1.45 up to $1.95 before you were prepared to put in a buy order. Thus for those who want to invest in RED but still try to do some intra day trading of part of the stock is more theoretical than is probably possible).
 
Even Tech/a who seems to know a lot about TA requires considerable confirmatory movements before making his move - do you agree Tech/a (that is not a cynical question, its my observation of your own apparent decision making in RED - for example it took you all the time for RED to move from around $1.45 up to $1.95 before you were prepared to put in a buy order. Thus for those who want to invest in RED but still try to do some intra day trading of part of the stock is more theoretical than is probably possible).
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T/A in a discretionary sence can be clear instantly or can take a little longer---If you read the thread you'll note I had RED a lot earlier than $1.95 and missed a re entry buy order when price gapped over my entry at $1.72.
I am not attempting to pick hoghs or lows.
Only momentum--positive (Entry) negative (Exit).

Quite Different.
 
Thanks Tech/a for your comment, although in my book a miss by an inch or a mile is still a miss. But of course with RED there will be many more opportunities as it moves further up IMO.
 
beatle said:
Thanks Tech/a for your comment, although in my book a miss by an inch or a mile is still a miss. But of course with RED there will be many more opportunities as it moves further up IMO.
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There is no miss.

Only proven correct or proven incorrect.
Where momentum is confirmed (as far as the individual analyst is concerned) has no bearing on the high or the low to the analyst---only outside observers.
If momentum continues in the direction we think is indicated then we are proven correct.
If it is proven in correct the trained analyst will have a contingency plan in place.
If in correct on entry he will have a stop in place
If in correct on exit ( Happened just today on PEN for me) he will have a re entry stratagy.

The end result should be more profit from wins than loses from losing trades.
to the trained analyst---a snap.
 
Agreed MrLister that RED had another great day. I expected it to be relatively flat or down slightly, knowing the timeframes of what is happening with Siana. But seems maybe someone is more informed about the status of the Siana commissioning.

We remain just over 2 weeks away from knowing how the plant performance is continuing, and therefore still officially a couple of weeks of being in the dark. But realistically, if the plant has indeed largely overcome the sticky ore situation, then its likely that a couple more gold pours have proceeded since that first pour of 3 Feb, thus there are people onsite that will know about this situation! Its not possible without continuously advising the market on perhaps a weekly basis, of informing the market as to exactly how things are proceeding onsite!

How the techies interpret the trading will be interesting, especially with the fairly strong close at the high of the day, $2.18, albeit on reasonable but relatively moderate volume (value of shares traded $1.078 million) compared to recent days. I honestly believe that RED is earning a reputation of being a good longer term share investment, although I understand that technical traders want to follow their charts on an objective basis. Its still got oodles of upside from a fundamental value point of view, thus its more important to consider that aspect than to consider the role of gold price movements in RED share price movements.
 
Looking good. The run up has been quick and relatively smooth.

14gold bar outcome -02-2012 9-31-26 AM.png

From observation it appears that there is bullish sentiment and not much selling. Looking for a jump above the marked level and holding. An announcement stating good production would be handy, then some institutional buying/support would fit the bill. The 2.30 level is not the hard part, it's staying solidly above that for the short term!

Good luck today everyone, looking OK so far. A nice spot to be in, they say ignorance is bliss, let's hope that is not the case here!

I like the idea that on site it is going well and that is supporting the price.
 
Pretty nasty day today, RED is the worst performer on my watchlist.

Good time to enter or a start of a consolidation in sp? The volume is somewhat high as well making me non-optimistic at least in the short term, seems like a rejection of the resistance for now?
 
Firstly Jeff
No dis respect for your anaysis which I feel is sound
I have used your chart to mark up for selfish reasons
(I dont have another chart handy!).

Just some additional analysis observations.
Bottom line is I personally am looking at a potential
counter trend opportunity if it presents.

No I dont see this breaking into the wild blue younder.
From currently available price action.

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RED 2.gif
 
Yes agreed that today was disappointing for RED, with a lot of volume also. But what I find hard to understand with all the techies that look at trading information alone, is that they seem to be predicting the future outcome based on those factors alone, failing to realise that in fact RED is actually doing something very important at the moment on site which will alter its past history into a gold producer of significance, and a likely substantial maiden profit in the current financial year, although with few months ahead of it that profit will be only a skeric of what lies ahead for it!

So if you can't see it jumping into the blue yonder by looking at the charts then that's fine, but don't get so carried away to think your reading of the charts can ignore that RED is in the process of a considerable transformation, from explorer to significant gold producer. and the share price will soon reflect that change! Believe it or not, thats a fact. Charts or no charts.
 
beatle said:
Yes agreed that today was disappointing for RED, with a lot of volume also. But what I find hard to understand with all the techies that look at trading information alone, is that they seem to be predicting the future outcome based on those factors alone, failing to realise that in fact RED is actually doing something very important at the moment on site which will alter its past history into a gold producer of significance, and a likely substantial maiden profit in the current financial year, although with few months ahead of it that profit will be only a skeric of what lies ahead for it!

So if you can't see it jumping into the blue yonder by looking at the charts then that's fine, but don't get so carried away to think your reading of the charts can ignore that RED is in the process of a considerable transformation, from explorer to significant gold producer. and the share price will soon reflect that change! Believe it or not, thats a fact. Charts or no charts.
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No arguement here!

Many times price will do something at absolute odds to Fundamentals.
Sure price will also reflect strong fundamentals---
Either way Fundamentals or no Fundamentals I'll see and be able to trade it from the charts.
 
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