Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

VAU - Vault Minerals

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tech/a said:
Nothing wrong with that.
If it suits fine.
RED isnt a stock Id trade normally but as I like to put my mouth where my money is Im dabbling around in it.
Same with PEN. Which is the only stock position I have open.

Index Futs are still my prefered.
But some interesting things are happening overall---another topic.
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This has been educational, this thread. Really good to hear different opinions and peoples trading styles in real time.

Would be really interested to hear your thoughts on the other 'interesting things happening overall' Tech. A new thread perhaps?
 
mrlister said:
im relatively new to trading, so im not sure what is normal and what is not...but watching RED at the moment,....people are being scared into selling. A lot of very small trades are going through at always around a cent cheaper than previous trade...which drives the market value down by that much......it is slowly having an affect and some people that are not seeing why this is happening would be selling out of fear.

this trading game is full of tricks!!!
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Quite common.
If a trade is partially completed the amount left to trade will generally be left in to trade at that price again.
You can come out from behind the fridge now!
 
Dougs Antiques said:
The problem with the plant is that the marerial is blocking up on the sharp bends (I assume) so some of the belt structure will need to be redisigned and moved to provide a suitable curve to create laminer flow of the product.
In order to do this some of the structure will need to be removed altered (to make a larger curve) and then replaced.
Now depending on the difficulty and weather conditions (now the wet season) will controll how long that this will take.
If it can be done in short period of time I doubt if we will see sub $1.50 but if it takes 8 weeks or more because of the weather RED could possibly see $1.20 with a few ups and downs on the chart.
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mrlister said:
yeah i know, but i thought it had a bit more in it than this, they really need to start pouring!!
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On the 5th of January I called it at possibly 8 weeks due to the wet season....see what happens we are now at 4 weeks.:eek:
 
Hi Guys, Interesting that Sprott is now out as well as Matthews. Nature of the game perhaps but may indicate some loss of confidence/disappointment with management/progress. As I recall Sprott has supplied the standby facility of US$8M so it can't be all bad. I am not unduly concerned as there could be a myriad reasons. Latest report seems confident and positive. Have enjoyed some of the T/A stuff but not my bag. Like Beatle I have been in for many years (not as long though) and am looking forward to seeing the operation hit or exceed its production targets. Gold still looks bullish for 2012 so should be a good year for all long term holders. AB:cool:
 
When i first saw that sprott got out i was a little concerned, but reality is that the withdrawal started mid year last year when the setbacks first commenced, and this is the end of it. so im not too concerned. it seems that the confidence level is at about 1.8 until they start to pour. which is fair enough, seeing as it is still a relative unknown, and still plenty of great other places to make money such as maverick.

im going to hang in there for the mid - long term on this one.
 
anderbond said:
Hi Guys, Interesting that Sprott is now out as well as Matthews. Nature of the game perhaps but may indicate some loss of confidence/disappointment with management/progress. As I recall Sprott has supplied the standby facility of US$8M so it can't be all bad. I am not unduly concerned as there could be a myriad reasons. Latest report seems confident and positive. Have enjoyed some of the T/A stuff but not my bag. Like Beatle I have been in for many years (not as long though) and am looking forward to seeing the operation hit or exceed its production targets. Gold still looks bullish for 2012 so should be a good year for all long term holders. AB:cool:
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I agree that this is not a major concern, seems they have been selling a few different large gold stock orientated holdings in the past few days, SAR, AMX for example. Might be a good time to find out where that money is now headed ?
 
Hi AB, great to hear from you after quite a while. It seems RED is finally over the big hurdles and once we hear of a gold pour (just to prove that there is gold at Siana and that the plant works!) and then ramped up production in coming months RED should finally prove a winner for all us long termers!
And AB as you point out gold looks like it could be strong for 2012. What I like about gold's strength is that even in aussie dollar terms it continues to ride a long term uptrend:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=10Y

My valuation of RED remains based on the 2009 base case feasibility study model, which (and of course it depends upon gold price over successive years) is more than double current share price. I expect that valuation to change UPWARDS once the operation is bedden down and management finally puts out a revised reserve statement. That reserve revision obviously has been on hold the past few months as they struggled to resolve this sticky ore problem (ie to get a handle on ore throughputs).
 
Hi Beatle, thanks, I have been reading the thread both from Japan and here and keeping abreast of the "sticky" issues. The new drilling program at Siana looks worthwhile and some holes have looked very interesting. Overall it should be a great year for RED with production and likely resource extensions combining to provide a bit of "rocket" juice to the SP. Additionally, attention may return to Mapawa once they have worked out where they need to drill as management remains excited about the potential here. Still waiting to hear about "the party" lol. AB:cool:
 
Thought it worth reviewing RED.
While it can be seen as an inside day it is very different to PEN
The chart characteristics are weaker than PENs currently and my very quick post may have been mis leading.

I have liked the way pen has traded thus far however while the party may not be over the likely hood of it continuing strongly has diminished. I missed the $1.73 gap entry but If I was still in it Id have a stop trailing for tomorrow.

I think RED will come off in the short term.

This analysis alters if the current high at $1.91 is taken out.

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RED 4.jpg
 
Sorry, I'm still learning the lingo. When you say 'taken out', do you mean if the price rises beyond this?

Your analysis is pure technical based on a company that is in full swing, but RED is still yet to produce a thing, of which must be a big factor when analysing this stock.
 
mrlister said:
Sorry, I'm still learning the lingo. When you say 'taken out', do you mean if the price rises beyond this?
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Yes.

Your analysis is pure technical based on a company that is in full swing, but RED is still yet to produce a thing, of which must be a big factor when analysing this stock.
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To many.
Not to me
The chart will tell all.
To me
But possibly not to others.

I don't have to be in every trade a chart indicates.
I don't have to remain in a stock waiting for " A big factor "
I can miss opportunities and I can find opportunity where others may miss.
I can get it wrong and have no opinion,nor confusion.
I can trade a stock and know nothing more than it's code!!!
 
tech/a said:
Yes.



To many.
Not to me
The chart will tell all.
To me
But possibly not to others.

I don't have to be in every trade a chart indicates.
I don't have to remain in a stock waiting for " A big factor "
I can miss opportunities and I can find opportunity where others may miss.
I can get it wrong and have no opinion,nor confusion.
I can trade a stock and know nothing more than it's code!!!
Click to expand...

according to your analysis....what % below fridays close would you put a sell stop on?...and why?

i just re-looked at your chart and you answered this question there...saying you would put the stop fridays low. Fridays low was only 1c below current price? so your saying if it drops at all then sell?
 
Hi all. Tech, take this how you will, though i do apologize. I have been following your posts here and on other threads.

Yes you did come across as though you were rubbishing RED. (And i must admit i may have taken it to heart on occasions.) But i am starting to see your point now.

What you are posting i do find extremely interesting. Your T/A analysis is pretty much second to none. Other than the buy that was jumped over the other day on open, you have been pretty much spot on. I look forward to your posts now, as we are obviously here for the same reasons. (To make money) !!!

I am in fact taking everything you write on board, and do appreciate it. Please keep it up..

Cheers Moit. :rolleyes:
 
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