Kryzz
shaun
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US weekly equities trading
- Thread starter Kryzz
- Start date
Kryzz
shaun
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I might also add that the recent almost 8% run up in the AUDUSD over the past 5 weeks has really hurt my bottom line and waiting for a decent dip to implement a hedge has me concerned if this run continues.
Although I don't intend on returning this account back to AUD anytime soon, I feel I made a mistake here not giving enough thought to currency risk here before trading US equities. Lesson learned.
Although I don't intend on returning this account back to AUD anytime soon, I feel I made a mistake here not giving enough thought to currency risk here before trading US equities. Lesson learned.
Kryzz
shaun
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Well that was quite a week!
Almost all my positions have been stopped out now, 7% or so wiped off the account in the blink of an eye. Will be reviewing everything closely this weekend. Having a quick glance, perhaps I gave up too much open profit.
ABT was +2.6r, stopped out for + 0.26r
ACN was at +6.1r, stopped out for 4.2r
CF was 1.5r stopped out at B/E
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Yep, it sure was a week to remember and learn from. Having skin in the game makes the experience more valuable.
Imagine the performance of this portfolio if it started 9 years ago, right at the start of the US bull market. You still would have lost 7%, but you might have been up 200 - 400%. You would have laughed as you saw this panic selling and probably got ready to reload over the weekend to take full advantage of the likely rally.
Give me a few weeks to get sorted and I think I may tempt you back to the 4H forex markets.
Imagine the performance of this portfolio if it started 9 years ago, right at the start of the US bull market. You still would have lost 7%, but you might have been up 200 - 400%. You would have laughed as you saw this panic selling and probably got ready to reload over the weekend to take full advantage of the likely rally.
Give me a few weeks to get sorted and I think I may tempt you back to the 4H forex markets.
Kryzz
shaun
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Yep, it sure was a week to remember and learn from. Having skin in the game makes the experience more valuable.
Imagine the performance of this portfolio if it started 9 years ago, right at the start of the US bull market. You still would have lost 7%, but you might have been up 200 - 400%. You would have laughed as you saw this panic selling and probably got ready to reload over the weekend to take full advantage of the likely rally.
Give me a few weeks to get sorted and I think I may tempt you back to the 4H forex markets.
Not wrong Pete, nothing's lost if experience is gained.
I have been following your the recent P2, part 3 thread with interest. Very much looking forward to the FX trades you post up. I'll stay tuned
Kryzz
shaun
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First post back here in a while, a hectic 4-5 weeks has resulted in a lull in this thread. Of the six open trades, three of them are pullbacks with a small consolidation pattern just above the 200d MA.
Six positions and trade history in the below screenshots:
Six positions and trade history in the below screenshots:
Attachments
Kryzz
shaun
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Quick update here, still going with US equities. Have made some adjustments to entries and exits of late. Mainly around the introductions of MAs for pullback entries, and looking to exit around prior swing highs.
Targeting banking more 1r and 2r trades, I felt I was letting too many trades that were in profit get away from me. Account balance was hovering around the $14k mark, now back up to $15.72k. Having said that, looking back at M & VRSN - I closed out too soon, but banked some profit and on to the next. (Have also recently increased risk per trade from 1 to 1.5% per trade)
I've attached charts of VAR & ABCB for recent entries, pullback to the MAs with some consolidation on an old swing high. This is the primary setup I'm now looking for.
I've made some adjustments after following Rolly on twitter and his YouTube channel Suubee - top resource in my opinion (if this hasn't already been mentioned in other threads): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzUaSBvEnkob4AD7nbyvqVg/videos
Targeting banking more 1r and 2r trades, I felt I was letting too many trades that were in profit get away from me. Account balance was hovering around the $14k mark, now back up to $15.72k. Having said that, looking back at M & VRSN - I closed out too soon, but banked some profit and on to the next. (Have also recently increased risk per trade from 1 to 1.5% per trade)
I've attached charts of VAR & ABCB for recent entries, pullback to the MAs with some consolidation on an old swing high. This is the primary setup I'm now looking for.
I've made some adjustments after following Rolly on twitter and his YouTube channel Suubee - top resource in my opinion (if this hasn't already been mentioned in other threads): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzUaSBvEnkob4AD7nbyvqVg/videos
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Good, wont' be a problem with weekly charts. Check for scheduled earnings reports.
Much better in a bullish market as they provide quicker RR. A good improvement to your skill set.
Kryzz
shaun
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Nicely done.
I don't like the TSE chart.
eg ABCB touched your short term MAs then immediately took off. TSE has now touched three times. Price seems to be going sideways. I'd need to see a bullish bar closing above the prior bar before buying.
With all the opportunities in the US you should be able to find plenty of perfect setups. Don't take near-enoughs. Remember you've got two setups, break-outs and the shallow pull-back that touches your MAs in a strong trend up.
Do you look for the strongest sectors before choosing a stock?
I don't like the TSE chart.
eg ABCB touched your short term MAs then immediately took off. TSE has now touched three times. Price seems to be going sideways. I'd need to see a bullish bar closing above the prior bar before buying.
With all the opportunities in the US you should be able to find plenty of perfect setups. Don't take near-enoughs. Remember you've got two setups, break-outs and the shallow pull-back that touches your MAs in a strong trend up.
Do you look for the strongest sectors before choosing a stock?
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Another aspect you may want to consider. Trade lower priced stocks. This will use less capital and you'll be able to start more trades when others are past their BE prices. More trades will allow you to be patient with those that go sideways for a few weeks.
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I love that you're trading the weekly charts on the US markets. I like your thread and I want to see you earn some above average profits. I want you to get twice the SPY. If the SPY goes up 15% pa I want to see you get 30%.
I know you can do it. You've got two fantastic setups.
(i) BO - which will get you into a start of a trend
(ii) PB - the resumption of a trend.
I know you can position size correctly and your record keeping is good.
I'd like to see your W% and your AW, AL in R multiples for all your weekly trades (PM me?). You may think you haven't earned much so far. That doesn't matter. What matters is how are you going to improve? What minor changes will or have you made to improve your edge?
eg. Increasing trade risk to 1.5% won't improve your edge. It should produce more profit but only because you're risking more.
eg Adding a second setup (PB). This may improve your edge if the setup gets you into trades that move quicker (like ABCB moved from MAs to prior high, ka-ching grab the +1.4R, next trade)
Right now the US tech stocks and small caps are booming. Starting more trades* when the markets are very bullish will improve your edge. Starting fewer trades when market conditions are unfavourable will improve your edge.
Finding the next hot sector and jumping onto it near the start will definitely improve your edge. You'll need a process to identify the next hot sector. That's why I asked you about it.
I'm very positive about your trading efforts so far. I think you're close to really getting it.
* lower price stocks, leverage x2
I know you can do it. You've got two fantastic setups.
(i) BO - which will get you into a start of a trend
(ii) PB - the resumption of a trend.
I know you can position size correctly and your record keeping is good.
I'd like to see your W% and your AW, AL in R multiples for all your weekly trades (PM me?). You may think you haven't earned much so far. That doesn't matter. What matters is how are you going to improve? What minor changes will or have you made to improve your edge?
eg. Increasing trade risk to 1.5% won't improve your edge. It should produce more profit but only because you're risking more.
eg Adding a second setup (PB). This may improve your edge if the setup gets you into trades that move quicker (like ABCB moved from MAs to prior high, ka-ching grab the +1.4R, next trade)
Right now the US tech stocks and small caps are booming. Starting more trades* when the markets are very bullish will improve your edge. Starting fewer trades when market conditions are unfavourable will improve your edge.
Finding the next hot sector and jumping onto it near the start will definitely improve your edge. You'll need a process to identify the next hot sector. That's why I asked you about it.
I'm very positive about your trading efforts so far. I think you're close to really getting it.
* lower price stocks, leverage x2
Kryzz
shaun
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Thanks for the feedback Peter.
I will note the industry the stock that I'm looking at, but probably not actively monitoring which sector is outperforming the rest. I think my TSE trade here is more a hoping there's a strong swing up off support here. I occasionally look at the sector performance here: http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
But definitely not as much as a I should have been.
Thanks Pete, I will PM you later with recent trades. I wish I could utilize leverage with IB however from my understanding this is tricky for Aus customers. I think I would need to create a Pty Ltd company and sell down all positions and transfer AUD cash to the new a/c.
I will note the industry the stock that I'm looking at, but probably not actively monitoring which sector is outperforming the rest. I think my TSE trade here is more a hoping there's a strong swing up off support here. I occasionally look at the sector performance here: http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
But definitely not as much as a I should have been.
I will need to amend my scans I think to cater for this, I note the lower price stocks tend to run harder (reviewing my recent CROX trade).
Thanks Pete, I will PM you later with recent trades
. I wish I could utilize leverage with IB however from my understanding this is tricky for Aus customers. I think I would need to create a Pty Ltd company and sell down all positions and transfer AUD cash to the new a/c.
Kryzz
shaun
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Following on from the above commentary, I have thought more about developing a routine which hopefully leads to improved consistency. My thoughts are to:
Review each sector every weekend and maintain a log of how they're performing. I won't drill down as far as industries within the sector (14 industries in the industrials alone). I will also look at each of the major US indicies. I've dot pointed some comments below as to how this could look (and comments on open trades)
HBAN - entry was ok here, moving sideways long with the index however and is hovering around b/e after 5 or so weeks
Financials (XLF) - sideways trend, approx 10% from 52 week high
TSE - hopeful entry, was banking on a bump up as price approached the 200d ma, tends to support price well in the states. No bullish bar to confirm though.
Materials (XLB) - sideways trend, 7% from 52 week high
VAR - Entry met my criteria, narrow ranging bars setting up on a prior swing high with the MAs moving up to meet price
Healthcare (XLV) - sideways trend, slight uptick past two weeks, 7.5% from 52 week high
SSNC - best performer, up +0.50% at the time of writing whilst the S&P is -0.60%. Missed the entry slightly, should have been two bars earlier and had a larger position/tighter stop here. Strong sector.
Technology (XLK) - strong trend, 0.86% from 52 week high
STZ - Missed the entry here by one bar also I feel, after price had touched the MAs (200day ma too). Going ok at the moment however considering the broader market and sector.
Consumer staples (XLP) - weak trend, approx 14% from 52 week high
I had messaged Peter re discussing scans also. I currently use incredible charts for scanning, so it is somewhat rudimentary in nature but seems to do the trick. My main one I use is below. This yields lots of good candidates, but is often too late as price has already broken out of moved away from the MAs convincingly.
On occasion I will also manually go through the S&P and make watchlists for pullbacks and breakouts.
Open positions below.
Review each sector every weekend and maintain a log of how they're performing. I won't drill down as far as industries within the sector (14 industries in the industrials alone). I will also look at each of the major US indicies. I've dot pointed some comments below as to how this could look (and comments on open trades)
HBAN - entry was ok here, moving sideways long with the index however and is hovering around b/e after 5 or so weeks
Financials (XLF) - sideways trend, approx 10% from 52 week high
TSE - hopeful entry, was banking on a bump up as price approached the 200d ma, tends to support price well in the states. No bullish bar to confirm though.
Materials (XLB) - sideways trend, 7% from 52 week high
VAR - Entry met my criteria, narrow ranging bars setting up on a prior swing high with the MAs moving up to meet price
Healthcare (XLV) - sideways trend, slight uptick past two weeks, 7.5% from 52 week high
SSNC - best performer, up +0.50% at the time of writing whilst the S&P is -0.60%. Missed the entry slightly, should have been two bars earlier and had a larger position/tighter stop here. Strong sector.
Technology (XLK) - strong trend, 0.86% from 52 week high
STZ - Missed the entry here by one bar also I feel, after price had touched the MAs (200day ma too). Going ok at the moment however considering the broader market and sector.
Consumer staples (XLP) - weak trend, approx 14% from 52 week high
I had messaged Peter re discussing scans also. I currently use incredible charts for scanning, so it is somewhat rudimentary in nature but seems to do the trick. My main one I use is below. This yields lots of good candidates, but is often too late as price has already broken out of moved away from the MAs convincingly.
On occasion I will also manually go through the S&P and make watchlists for pullbacks and breakouts.
Open positions below.
Kryzz
shaun
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As soon as I posted the above reply I was stopped out of TSE for a full -1.17r.
If I didn't have that trade on, my portfolio would have only been down -0.25% or so when the index is down 1% at the time of writing.
Ouch.
If I didn't have that trade on, my portfolio would have only been down -0.25% or so when the index is down 1% at the time of writing.
Ouch.
Kryzz
shaun
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I have a stop order in place for TWOU after some capital has freed up after I got stopped out of TSE. Looking for a breakout for this tech stock, no earnings coming up in the near term. Chart below:
Other names I've looked at tonight also include, but not as confident with as TWOU.
OCN - pullback (financials)
NG - pullback (materials)
SREV - pullback (tech)
Other names I've looked at tonight also include, but not as confident with as TWOU.
OCN - pullback (financials)
NG - pullback (materials)
SREV - pullback (tech)
Kryzz
shaun
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Two new trades triggered yesterday.
PXD & LW. One PB and one BO, respectively
PXD & LW. One PB and one BO, respectively
Kryzz
shaun
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New long entered on Friday night with ATGE - breakout. Consumer discretionary sector made new all time highs two weeks ago, sector is looking strong. Earnings on 16/08.
Kryzz
shaun
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Partial profits for ATGE banked tonight and stop moved to B/E. S&P up for three weeks in a row almost now, wanted to bank some profits whilst there and reduce risk. (I've never scaled out of a position before, so this is a first for me).
New long (pullback trade) entered with NRG on Monday.
SSNC, NRG and SSNC all have earnings within the next fortnight, likely all these positions will be closed prior to then.
Kryzz
shaun
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LW exited for +0.23r, earnings tomorrow so bumped the stop right up.
NRG had a weak close last week and hasn't started this week off great, have moved the stop up to the low of the bar I entered on. Looking to cut these pullback trades that don't move in my favour asap.
New long entered with CROX, I had an buy stops pending for this ticker and M, CROX triggered first however. M took off however.
