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So far as I can tell, nobody outside US political circles seems to be taking the current US Government partial shutdown seriously. Everyone seems to be just assuming that a solution will be found and that a default will not occur.
The overall situation with US government finances seems to be akin to a machine etc that is wearing out. First it works perfectly. Then it gets hard to start, but after a couple of tries the engine springs to life. Slowly but surely it gets harder and harder. Then the day comes when it just won't go no matter what you do.
US finances seem to be heading that way. Each crisis seems a bit harder to resolve than the last one, and these "debt ceilings" are about as pointless as you can get given how often they are raised. The notion that they have an actual self-imposed limit is a bit like saying you're only drinking one beer. Then you go back to the bar each time the glass is empty. You only ever bought one beer at a time, but that doesn't stop you from getting drunk. Much the same with the US debt - they may "only" be adding a trillion $ here and there, but they add more as soon as the limit is reached which makes the notion of restraint misleading at best.
My thoughts are that nobody seems to be taking this seriously and the markets are an indication of just that. But when things aren't taken seriously, that's when big surprises often occur. If not this time, then sooner or later there's going to be a problem - just like the machine eventually breaks and stops working if you ignore the warning signs.
Check out Kohlers graph on the debt ceiling, very interesting.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/business/kohler-report/
Thank you, that is a far better example of the media fear mongering I was talking about than I could have come up with myself.
I think you barely ever see a big reaction from the market when something is happening that everyone is expecting. The government shutdown was not unexpected,
US finances seem to be heading that way. Each crisis seems a bit harder to resolve than the last one, and these "debt ceilings" are about as pointless as you can get given how often they are raised. The notion that they have an actual self-imposed limit is a bit like saying you're only drinking one beer. Then you go back to the bar each time the glass is empty. You only ever bought one beer at a time, but that doesn't stop you from getting drunk. Much the same with the US debt - they may "only" be adding a trillion $ here and there, but they add more as soon as the limit is reached which makes the notion of restraint misleading at best.
Everything is possible in markets and in politics, so the market needs to price in a possibility of a default (and I don't know what that means quantitatively). But the probability of a default is still on the low side imo.
So far as I can tell, nobody outside US political circles seems to be taking the current US Government partial shutdown seriously.
A "Claytons shutdown" a shut down when your not having a shutdown, more like a slim down. Many have been recalled from their furloughs, and The House on Saturday voted 407-0 to approve back pay for furloughed federal workers.
House Speaker John A. Boehner emphasized that he will not permit the country to default for the first time on its debt. He still holds that position.
At the moment they are in 'conversation mode' as reported some of the latest google financial links....so the share market casino will probably morph into the the next phase...place your bets please!
Good points, bugs,
It is however the end of an era, or if not the end, close to it.
The US Credit Rating in all it's elements, has been irreparably damaged by these latest shenanigans.
Since 2009 there has been a stench coming from the US of political instability and casino-like fiscal management.
The US people will suffer the most, it's dollar, assets and economy will devalue, and Americans will rue the day they elected such muppets to the Presidency, Congress and Senate.
gg
I wouldn't be surprised if the US defaults.
Some of those d'head Republican senators have probably shorted the stockmarket and want to collect.
Not that australia's politik is any better and our 'market' -housing,shares, etc etc are higher than ever.
Its that kind of crazy in politik that fuels market "pulses". Lack of G.W bush crazy politics gave us a flatline or GFC 2007-8.
Its like a giant financial heart, sucking all the crap into the chamber and its about to take another beat, like it did last debt ceiling crisis around same time in 2012.
See where it takes us this time...my guess is roaring 1920's repeat and late 1920's collapse. similar pattern to last century- but with bumps and scrapes along the way.
So, we're on the edge of a US default and meanwhile the Dow is going up and near its' all time high.
Something doesn't make sense here. Reading the various media reports etc, it still seems to be taken about as seriously as an April Fool's day prank. It's right up there with lost dogs, minor traffic accidents, weather etc and somewhat behind the antics of some c-grade celebrity and how well a local sports team played on the weekend.
Whilst I doubt that an actual default will occur, I was expecting at least some reaction from the markets as though it were at least possible. Thus far at least, no real impact on anything it would seem. Some jitters maybe, but it's not as though there has been even a modest decline in the share market etc.
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