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Ukraine War

The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on 03 February 2023, including precision long-range missiles for HIMARS. The package includes Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB/M) that will increase the range of HIMARS to 151km from roughly 80km. The package also includes Javelin anti-armor systems, two HAWK air defense firing units, regular HIMARS ammunition, and 120mm mortar and 155mm artillery rounds.

GLSDB has the ability to fly non-ballistic trajectories and maneuvers to strike targets that cannot be reached by conventional direct fire weapons, such as reverse slope engagement.

-push their logistics and command centres back.
 
What looked like a David and Goliath battle back then, is now proving that Putrid (Putin) has to be in the class of the mad and evil so-called leaders of countries during WWII, and perhaps has bitten off more than he can chew.
 
What looked like a David and Goliath battle back then, is now proving that Putrid (Putin) has to be in the class of the mad and evil so-called leaders of countries during WWII, and perhaps has bitten off more than he can chew.
Basic military theory is that you need 3:1 for a successful attack. But, that was old school. It’s now more like 10:1 due to modern weaponry and defensive armour. So, Russia really needed to attack with 10 x Ukraine‘s total defence force for this to be a success but it seems they went as low as 1:1. Putrid is in deep doo doo.
 

Russia definitely isn’t gaining any more territory, even with the 300k extra troops they’re supposed to be sending. The next serious problem may be Belarus joining in more formally and attacking from the west. But, that would push Poland and the Baltics to attack Belarus from their west escalating things to an uncontrollable cascade of conflict. I don’t know how this de-escalates from here. While this has potential international repercussions, it’s probably small beer compared to when China invade Taiwan, if Russia succeeds here. If Russia fail, Taiwan might be safe.
 
It's a real pity that he can't be knocked off, but these despots always have a means and a way to survive. Rule by fear, armaments and the armed forces.
 
Retired Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan still quotes 3:1 as being the ratio for attack defence.

His thinking is that unless you create a total wasteland devoid of even cockroaches, infantry are still the final element red in tooth and claw to ensure military victory.

I'd be interested if you could post @Sean K links to those other ratios you quoted.

Even if it is just your opinion it does give one food for thought as weaponry advances by the week in this conflict, I will admit.

gg
 

Royal Military College teaches 3:1. It’s in stone, based on long time military history. I heard from a friend‘s cousin it was now 10:1. But really, I did read it somewhere in some recent military doctrine from somewhere else. I‘ll try and dig up a reference, but it might be NV1 or red tagged computer material.
 
What country apart from China would have that sort of military imbalance. If what I read is correct the Ruskies are running out of personnel to keep up the barrage.
 
What country apart from China would have that sort of military imbalance. If what I read is correct the Ruskies are running out of personnel to keep up the barrage.

No one, but it also depends on the type of military operation. An amphibious attack in Asia is very different to an army attack in Europe.

Yes, Russia is in trouble. But, if they think they are under attack, which is what Putin is selling, don’t discount the Russian people in their willingness to mobilize. Russia has already started transforming industry to a war footing, the west has done very little.
 
Shades of WWII letting Hitler dominate while the West tut-tutted and believed his rantings as being truthful.
 
Shades of WWII letting Hitler dominate while the West tut-tutted and believed his rantings as being truthful.

Spot on. This sequence actually started some time ago with Russia taking Crimea and China building military facilities deep in the SCS. I wrote a paper on Chinese aggression in the SCS 30 years ago while at Duntroon. This creeping expansionism by hostile anti-democratic forces must be stopped at some point. China is actually quite easy because they’re trapped by geography. They have no hope of expansion. They are going to try, but it’s doomed to failure.
 
Although a push over the Amur River when Russia loses central control past the Urals by the Chinese is always a possibility.

Sorry a bit off topic, maybe not though. Masses of Russian men and materials are heading west for the "SMO" and will lead to weakness in Eastern defences.

Kremlin disorder and a series of putsches could lead to leadership paralysis and disorder, and a loss of command and control.

The Chinese lost some of Siberia to Russia in the 19th Century.

The majority of Chinese citizens do not "like" the Russians locally in the East, considering them "drunken swine" as I read recently in a book on the Amur.

gg
 

This may be part of Chinese grand strategic planning. They know going south west did not work so they may think going north west is the next option for dominance of Eurasia. This will give them a foothold in Eastern Europe. I just can’t see Russia allowing this. They will fight to the last man, woman and child as they did in previous conflicts. The only solution for Chinese dominance is to partner with Russia, but as you say, it’s unlikely. The Anglo world with multiple key allies is likely to dominate the World for another 100 years, at least.
 
The Anglo world with multiple key allies is likely to dominate the World for another 100 years, at least.
I think you are having a wet dream here.
USA is where Europe was after WWI.
They are heading to oblivion I am afraid and I doubt they have any chance past one generation to maintain supremacy.so 25y at most.
Go and travel the world is all I can say with open eyes
No more unity, abysmal education and now lacking the capitalism and actual freedom / democracy..which as we all now is the only working system whatever its defaults.
Another corrupt Biden style presidency and they are gone.
They did rebirth with Reagan from a failed state, but I don't think it's now possible with the power of the big techs and their social/socialist agenda.
They will remain powerful due to their size and nukes..like currently France UK or .. Russia.hum..not that great even with a UN seat
 

LOL, go and travel the World? LMFAO.
 
The only question Lexy in my mind, USA who's gonna push the red button first. That someone is going to press it, seems inevitable now.
 
LOL, go and travel the World? LMFAO.
Yes, to see what reality is even If I agree,travel to the China and Russia is now off the plan/ unwise to put it mildly.
Or you can bath in the belief of the US as the great democracy saving the world and a beacon of enlightenment and power.
Not 100% sure it ever was..who could ever ? But it is not improving that is for sure and I felt pity for that country as a whole last few times I was there.
But the burgers were good, and in Texas and a few places,with the move to. Latin nation, they have a small chance to remain relevant.
Think Mexico Poland turkey and Indian China for the power makers in a generation.
I believe this war is the final capitulation of the EU/western Europe, probably Russia but also the end of the states even if they are the economic short term winners.
Hopefully, we still have a quarter century ahead of us and we will see who was in the right. And if not,well who cares
 
I’ve never thought about traveling. Thanks for the suggestion.
 
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