Ukraine War

[Dona Ferentes]

@bigdog, What wonderful news.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on 03 February 2023, including precision long-range missiles for HIMARS. The package includes Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB/M) that will increase the range of HIMARS to 151km from roughly 80km. The package also includes Javelin anti-armor systems, two HAWK air defense firing units, regular HIMARS ammunition, and 120mm mortar and 155mm artillery rounds.

GLSDB has the ability to fly non-ballistic trajectories and maneuvers to strike targets that cannot be reached by conventional direct fire weapons, such as reverse slope engagement.

-push their logistics and command centres back.

 

[farmerge]

Battle of Antonov Airport - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Battle of Antonov Airport​

The Battle of Antonov Airport, also known as the Battle of Hostomel Airport, was a military engagement which occurred at the Antonov Airport in Hostomel, Kyiv Oblast, during the Kyiv offensive of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On 24 February 2022, a few hours after President of Russia Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a "special military operation" in Ukraine, Russian troops of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) made an air assault on Antonov Airport with the objective of capturing it. The airport held strategic value as it was located less than 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) outside of the capital Kyiv, which would allow Russian troops to airlift more troops and heavier equipment to directly threaten the city.[6] However, the Ukrainian military responded with a counter-attack which encircled the unsupported Russian forces and repelled the initial assault.[14] The attack resumed on the next day with another air assault by the VDV combined with a ground assault by armored reinforcements coming from the Belarusian border, breaking through the Ukrainian defenses. The airport was then captured by the Russian forces.[14] Despite this, the unexpected Ukrainian resistance foiled the plans of a quick capitulation of Kyiv,[7] and the airport was too damaged to be used as a functional airstrip.[15]

The Antonov An-225 Mriya, the world's largest airplane, was destroyed in its hangar during the battle.

Back ground
Antonov Airport, or the Hostomel Airport, is a major international cargo airport located in the town of Hostomel, just at the outskirts of the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv. The airport was owned and operated by the Antonov State Enterprise, the Ukrainian state-owned aerospace and air defense company. The airport hosted the Antonov An-225 Mriya, the world's largest airplane[16][17] and was also used as an airstrip for the Ukrainian Air Force.

As Hostomel is located just outside Kyiv, around 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) away, and could give quick access to the capital, it was strategically important.[6] In the time leading up to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) obtained detailed information about Russian attack plans. CIA director William J. Burns travelled to Ukraine in January 2022, and informed the Ukrainian leadership that Russia intended to capture Antonov Airport for an airbridge, which would allow Russian forces to quickly move into Kyiv to "decapitate the government".[18] According to Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence, banker Denys Kireyev obtained information on 23 February 2022 from Russian sources that the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine would begin on 24 February and that Antonov Airport would be the site of the main attack of the invasion.[19] Analysts believed that President of Russia Vladimir Putin and the rest of the Russian leadership assumed that such a quick operation would throw Ukraine into disarray, resulting in the collapse of the Ukrainian military and allowing Russia to install a puppet government. Madison Policy Forum analyst John Spencer argued that this would have secured a military victory for Russia, albeit probably producing a massive Ukrainian insurgency.[20] However, the warnings by the CIA and Kireyev helped the Ukrainian military to prepare for an attack on Antonov Airport.[17][19][21] Regardless, the airport only held a small garrison of about 300 National Guard troops, as the remainder had been moved to the frontline in eastern Ukraine.[1]

Battle​

On 24 February 2022, around 05:30 am local time, President Putin announced a "special military operation" to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine. At around 8:00 a.m. a formation of 20 to 34 Russian helicopters arrived to secure Antonov Airport in Hostomel, a suburb of Kyiv, in an attempt to create an airbridge in which troops and equipment could muster less than 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) from Kyiv. The helicopter formation consisted of Mi-8s carrying potentially a hundred to several hundreds of Russian airborne troops escorted by Ka-52 attack helicopters. The paratroopers possibly consisted of the 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade[6][22] and/or 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade.[10] The air assault was captured on video by both civilians and soldiers. Flying low, the Russian helicopters made their approach from the Dnieper River and were immediately attacked by Ukrainian small arms fire and MANPADS. The Russian helicopters countered by deploying flares. Several Mi-8s were recorded taking hits and hitting the water.[12] At least one Ka-52 was shot down; its two pilots ejected.[23][6] The helicopters prepared the airborne landing by attacking the airport with rockets.[20][17] Some Ukrainian air defenses at the airport were precisely hit and destroyed during this initial attack; Ukrainian officials later concluded that an airport employee had been hired by Russian intelligence to reveal these positions.[1] Though the rocket bombardment successfully screened the landings, it failed to significantly weaken the Ukrainian defenses around the airport.[17]

Once disembarked, the Russian airborne units began to capture the airport.[6] The roughly 300 Ukrainian defenders were not well equipped, and included many draftees who had never seen combat. They could only offer limited resistance, though one national guardsman, Serhiy Falatyuk, successfully shot down a Russian helicopter with an 9K38 Igla, "boosting the spirits of" the conscripts. As fighting intensified, the Ukrainian air defenses became more effective. The helicopter of Russian commander Capt. Ivan Boldyrev was hit and forced to make an emergency landing.[1] As the Russian paratroopers landed in growing numbers and fanned out, the Ukrainian garrison was overwhelmed.[1][10] The Russian forces were thus able to secure the airport.[6] This success was due to the Ukrainian military being taken by surprise by the speed of the initial Russian attack, despite the preparations made after the CIA's warning.[17] The paratroopers then began preparing for the arrival of 18 Ilyushin Il-76 strategic airlifters carrying fresh troops from Russia.[24]

Despite overcoming the initial Ukrainian resistance, the paratroops continued to be engaged by local armed civilians and the 3rd Special Purpose Regiment.[10] The Ukrainians also began to bombard the airport with heavy artillery. Ukrainian Gen. Valery Zaluzhny recognized the danger of the Russian bridgehead at Hostomel, and ordered the 72nd Mechanized Brigade under Col. Oleksandr Vdovychenko to organize a counter-attack.[1] At the "critical moment" of the battle,[10] a large-scale Ukrainian counterattack was launched by the 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade of the National Guard,[6] backed by the Ukrainian Air Force.[10] Lacking armored vehicles, the Russian forces were dependent on air support to stave off the Ukrainian advances. Two Russian Su-25s were witnessed attacking Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian warplanes which survived the opening Russian missile strikes took part in providing air support for the National Guard units; these included at least two Su-24s and a MiG-29.[6] The Ukrainians were swift in rushing more troops to the airport to support the counter-attack. These reinforcements included the Georgian Legion,[8] and a unit of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces.[7] With the battle ongoing, the Russian Il-76s carrying reinforcements could not land; they were possibly forced to return to Russia.[24]

Ukrainian military units surrounded the airport and pushed back the Russian forces by the evening, forcing remaining Russian airborne troops to retreat to forests outside of the airport.[6][25][26][27][28] Georgian Legion commander Mamuka Mamulashvili later claimed that his men ran out of ammunition in the battle, whereupon he used his car to run over retreating Russian paratroopers.[8] Later, the 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade posted on their Facebook page an image of their soldiers celebrating the victory, while holding a Ukrainian flag riddled with bullet holes.[10]

The Antonov An-225 Mriya, the world's largest airplane, was at the airport at the time of the opening phase of the battle. It was initially confirmed to be intact by an Antonov pilot, despite the fighting.[29] However, on 27 February, a Ukroboronprom press release claimed that the Mriya had been destroyed by a Russian airstrike.[30] On 4 March, Russian state-owned television channel Channel One Russia aired footage showing that the Mriya had been destroyed.[31]

25 February 2022​

On 25 February 2022, Russian mechanized ground forces advancing from Belarus combined with another air assault by the VDV, took control of the airport after partially breaking through Ukrainian defenses at the Battle of Ivankiv.[22][32] Some of the armored vehicles were ambushed before reaching Hostomel, halting the reinforcements for a time, but nonetheless they entered the airport and helped to expel the Ukrainian defenders.[10] According to the Russian Ministry of Defence,[33] the capture came following an operation that involved some 200 helicopters. The figure of about 200 Ukrainian casualties and no casualties on the Russian side was announced.[11] This claim was met with skepticism, with Timur Olevsky, a journalist who witnessed the battle, outright refuting this claim.[6][22] Nevertheless, Russian ground forces established a foothold in Hostomel and began to man checkpoints inside the town. It was speculated that the Ukrainian defenders may have sabotaged the runway ahead of the advancing Russian ground forces.[6]

The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs initially denied that the airport had been fully captured by the Russian forces, stating that it had been "changing hands" and that the battle was ongoing. The Ministry of Internal Affairs also insisted that the Russian claim of the massive Ukrainian casualties was "an absolute lie",[34] while the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence declared that the airfield was too badly damaged to be used by Russian troops.[15] Later in the day, Ukraine confirmed that Russian forces were in control of the airport.[35]

Analysis​

Security analyst Andrew McGregor described the battle for Antonov Airport as "Russian Airborne Disaster". According to him, the initial Russian operation had aimed at securing an early access for the invasion forces into Kyiv to end the entire war within a day or two. Instead, Russian intelligence had failed to assess the actual concentration of Ukrainian defenders around the airport, and assumed only token defenses. As the initial landing force was too small to hold the locality, while the Russian military was unable to secure air transport for reinforcements as well as prevent Ukrainian counter-attacks, this led to the destruction of the first landing force. McGregor argued that the failure to take Antonov Airport and another airport at Vasylkiv at the invasion's start ended Russia's chance to bring the conflict to swift conclusion.[10]

Researchers of the Atlantic Council also argued that Ukraine's ability to defend the airport for two days "possibly prevent[ed] a rapid capture" of Kyiv by Russia.[36] Michael Shoebridge of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute argued that "the rapid strike was meant to paralyse the central government and demoralise the Ukrainian forces", but that this operation failed.[24] Royal United Services Institute associate director Jonathan Eyal described the initial Russian failure to take the airport as "a turning point" in the war. Journalist Patrick J. McDonnell stated that "Russia lost the battle for Kyiv with its hasty assault" on the airport.[20] Researchers Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans argued that the operation failed not just because of the initial Ukrainian defense at the airport, but also because of the Russian advance being stalled in the subsequent Battle of Hostomel. As a result, a large quantity of Russian troops and equipment was left waiting at Antonov Airport, subject to constant Ukrainian shelling. Mitzer and Oliemans expressed the belief that the battles for the airport and city of Hostomel "broke the back of the Russian assault on Kyiv".[17] Researcher Severin Pleyer suggested that the Battle of Antonov Airport showcased the Russian military's general failures during the invasion, including difficulties with main weapon systems, failures in logistics, coordination, and planning, as well as a lack of leadership and training. According to him, the fighting for the airport also highlighted that the Russian battalion tactical groups are ill-suited for warfare, as they hinder coordination and communication.[37] Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi later argued that the fall of the airport "played a negative role" for the Ukrainian forces, but that "artillery fire aimed at the runway and disembarkation sites delayed the landing significantly and frustrated the plan to capture Kyiv".[1]

Journalist Andreas Rüesch also argued that the Battle of Antonov Airport, alongside other battles during the invasion, disproved the myth of the extreme capabilities and near-invincibility of the Russian Airborne Forces, claims which had been extensively fostered by propaganda in Russia.[21] In reference to the first day of fighting, Pleyer described the battle as the worst defeat inflicted on the Russian Airborne Forces in recent history.[38]

Several days after the airport's capture, Russian forces were able to partially restore its landing fields for aircraft to use,[1] though the airport mainly came to serve as a hub to store equipment and house troops.[1][10]

Aftermath​

Despite the loss of the airport, Ukrainian forces continued to engage the Russian forces in Hostomel. Eyewitnesses recorded videos of allegedly a Russian tank column burning in the distance and Ukrainian Mi-24s firing rockets at Russian positions.[6] Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov claimed that Ukrainian forces deployed BM-21 Grad in Kyiv to bombard Russian forces occupying the airport.[39] Olevsky stated that he believes casualties for both Russian and Ukrainian may number in the hundreds.[40]

On 26 February 2022, Ukrainian forces claimed that the Ukrainian Alpha Group unit destroyed a column of Russian armored vehicles near Hostomel.[41][42] Sophia Fedyna [uk; ru], a member of the Verkhovna Rada, alleged that Russian spetsnaz captured some members of the Ukrainian National Guard and were wearing their uniforms. She asked Ukrainian citizens and fighters to speak only in Ukrainian to help identify Russian saboteurs.[43][44][45]

As of 27 February 2022, the airport remained under Russian control as clashes began to shift to the towns of Bucha and Irpin to the south,[46] where Ukrainian forces claimed to have halted the Russian advances, contesting Russian forces in Hostomel amid intense fighting.[47][48][49][50] On 27 February, the Security Service of Ukraine released an alleged intercepted conversation of Russian forces in Hostomel reporting casualties and requesting to be evacuated.[51][52] On the same day, Ukrainian forces bombarded the airport with artillery, and claimed to have destroyed Russian equipment, vehicles, and personnel.[53][54][55] The next day, a Russian military convoy stretching 40 miles (64 km) arrived at the airport in preparation for an assault on Kyiv.[56][57]

As of 28 March 2022, satellite imagery showed no Russian forces inside the airport.[58] On 29 March, Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Alexander Fomin announced a withdrawal of Russian forces from the Kyiv area,[59] including the abandonment of Hostomel Airport.[60]

By 2 April, Ukrainian forces had regained control of the airport following a large-scale Russian withdrawal along the Kyiv axis.[61] In their hasty retreat, Russian troops destroyed much of their own equipment, while other materiel was captured intact by the Ukrainians. In addition, other Russian equipment had been destroyed by Ukrainian artillery strikes before the withdrawal. Overall, Russia lost at least seven armoured fighting vehicles, 23 infantry fighting vehicles, three armoured personnel carriers, one anti-aircraft gun, two field artillery pieces, three helicopters, as well as 67 trucks, vehicles and jeeps at Antonov Airport.[17]

What looked like a David and Goliath battle back then, is now proving that Putrid (Putin) has to be in the class of the mad and evil so-called leaders of countries during WWII, and perhaps has bitten off more than he can chew.

 

[Sean K]

What looked like a David and Goliath battle back then, is now proving that Putrid (Putin) has to be in the class of the mad and evil so-called leaders of countries during WWII, and perhaps has bitten off more than he can chew.

Basic military theory is that you need 3:1 for a successful attack. But, that was old school. It’s now more like 10:1 due to modern weaponry and defensive armour. So, Russia really needed to attack with 10 x Ukraine‘s total defence force for this to be a success but it seems they went as low as 1:1. Putrid is in deep doo doo.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

 

[Sean K]

View attachment 152585

Russia definitely isn’t gaining any more territory, even with the 300k extra troops they’re supposed to be sending. The next serious problem may be Belarus joining in more formally and attacking from the west. But, that would push Poland and the Baltics to attack Belarus from their west escalating things to an uncontrollable cascade of conflict. I don’t know how this de-escalates from here. While this has potential international repercussions, it’s probably small beer compared to when China invade Taiwan, if Russia succeeds here. If Russia fail, Taiwan might be safe.

 

[farmerge]

Basic military theory is that you need 3:1 for a successful attack. But, that was old school. It’s now more like 10:1 due to modern weaponry and defensive armour. So, Russia really needed to attack with 10 x Ukraine‘s total defence force for this to be a success but it seems they went as low as 1:1. Putrid is in deep doo doo.

It's a real pity that he can't be knocked off, but these despots always have a means and a way to survive. Rule by fear, armaments and the armed forces.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Basic military theory is that you need 3:1 for a successful attack. But, that was old school. It’s now more like 10:1 due to modern weaponry and defensive armour. So, Russia really needed to attack with 10 x Ukraine‘s total defence force for this to be a success but it seems they went as low as 1:1. Putrid is in deep doo doo.

Retired Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan still quotes 3:1 as being the ratio for attack defence.

His thinking is that unless you create a total wasteland devoid of even cockroaches, infantry are still the final element red in tooth and claw to ensure military victory.

I'd be interested if you could post @Sean K links to those other ratios you quoted.

Even if it is just your opinion it does give one food for thought as weaponry advances by the week in this conflict, I will admit.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Retired Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan still quotes 3:1 as being the ratio for attack defence.

His thinking is that unless you create a total wasteland devoid of even cockroaches, infantry are still the final element red in tooth and claw to ensure military victory.

I'd be interested if you could post @Sean K links to those other ratios you quoted.

Even if it is just your opinion it does give one food for thought as weaponry advances by the week in this conflict, I will admit.

gg

Royal Military College teaches 3:1. It’s in stone, based on long time military history. I heard from a friend‘s cousin it was now 10:1. But really, I did read it somewhere in some recent military doctrine from somewhere else. I‘ll try and dig up a reference, but it might be NV1 or red tagged computer material.

 

[farmerge]

Royal Military College teaches 3:1. It’s in stone, based on long time military history. I heard from a friend‘s cousin it was now 10:1. But really, I did read it somewhere in some recent military doctrine from somewhere else. I‘ll try and dig up a reference, but it might be NV1 or red tagged computer material.

What country apart from China would have that sort of military imbalance. If what I read is correct the Ruskies are running out of personnel to keep up the barrage.

 

[Sean K]

What country apart from China would have that sort of military imbalance. If what I read is correct the Ruskies are running out of personnel to keep up the barrage.

No one, but it also depends on the type of military operation. An amphibious attack in Asia is very different to an army attack in Europe.

Yes, Russia is in trouble. But, if they think they are under attack, which is what Putin is selling, don’t discount the Russian people in their willingness to mobilize. Russia has already started transforming industry to a war footing, the west has done very little.

 

[farmerge]

No one, but it also depends on the type of military operation. An amphibious attack in Asia is very different to an army attack in Europe.

Yes, Russia is in trouble. But, if they think they are under attack, which is what Putin is selling, don’t discount the Russian people in their willingness to mobilize. Russia has already started transforming industry to a war footing, the west has done very little.

Shades of WWII letting Hitler dominate while the West tut-tutted and believed his rantings as being truthful.

 

[Sean K]

Shades of WWII letting Hitler dominate while the West tut-tutted and believed his rantings as being truthful.

Spot on. This sequence actually started some time ago with Russia taking Crimea and China building military facilities deep in the SCS. I wrote a paper on Chinese aggression in the SCS 30 years ago while at Duntroon. This creeping expansionism by hostile anti-democratic forces must be stopped at some point. China is actually quite easy because they’re trapped by geography. They have no hope of expansion. They are going to try, but it’s doomed to failure.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Spot on. This sequence actually started some time ago with Russia taking Crimea and China building military facilities deep in the SCS. I wrote a paper on Chinese aggression in the SCS 30 years ago while at Duntroon. This creeping expansionism by hostile anti-democratic forces must be stopped at some point. China is actually quite easy because they’re trapped by geography. They have no hope of expansion. They are going to try, but it’s doomed to failure.

Although a push over the Amur River when Russia loses central control past the Urals by the Chinese is always a possibility.

Sorry a bit off topic, maybe not though. Masses of Russian men and materials are heading west for the "SMO" and will lead to weakness in Eastern defences.

Kremlin disorder and a series of putsches could lead to leadership paralysis and disorder, and a loss of command and control.

The Chinese lost some of Siberia to Russia in the 19th Century.

The majority of Chinese citizens do not "like" the Russians locally in the East, considering them "drunken swine" as I read recently in a book on the Amur.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Although a push over the Amur River when Russia loses central control past the Urals by the Chinese is always a possibility.

Sorry a bit off topic, maybe not though. Masses of Russian men and materials are heading west for the "SMO" and will lead to weakness in Eastern defences.

Kremlin disorder and a series of putsches could lead to leadership paralysis and disorder, and a loss of command and control.

The Chinese lost some of Siberia to Russia in the 19th Century.

The majority of Chinese citizens do not "like" the Russians locally in the East, considering them "drunken swine" as I read recently in a book on the Amur.

gg

This may be part of Chinese grand strategic planning. They know going south west did not work so they may think going north west is the next option for dominance of Eurasia. This will give them a foothold in Eastern Europe. I just can’t see Russia allowing this. They will fight to the last man, woman and child as they did in previous conflicts. The only solution for Chinese dominance is to partner with Russia, but as you say, it’s unlikely. The Anglo world with multiple key allies is likely to dominate the World for another 100 years, at least.

 

[qldfrog]

The Anglo world with multiple key allies is likely to dominate the World for another 100 years, at least.

I think you are having a wet dream here.
USA is where Europe was after WWI.
They are heading to oblivion I am afraid and I doubt they have any chance past one generation to maintain supremacy.so 25y at most.
Go and travel the world is all I can say with open eyes
No more unity, abysmal education and now lacking the capitalism and actual freedom / democracy..which as we all now is the only working system whatever its defaults.
Another corrupt Biden style presidency and they are gone.
They did rebirth with Reagan from a failed state, but I don't think it's now possible with the power of the big techs and their social/socialist agenda.
They will remain powerful due to their size and nukes..like currently France UK or .. Russia.hum..not that great even with a UN seat

 

[Sean K]

I think you are having a wet dream here.
USA is where Europe was after WWI.
They are heading to oblivion I am afraid and I doubt they have any chance past one generation to maintain supremacy.so 25y at most.
Go and travel the world is all I can say with open eyes
No more unity, abysmal education and now lacking the capitalism and actual freedom / democracy..which as we all now is the only working system whatever its defaults.
Another corrupt Biden style presidency and they are gone.
They did rebirth with Reagan from a failed state, but I don't think it's now possible with the power of the big techs and their social/socialist agenda.
They will remain powerful due to their size and nukes..like currently France UK or .. Russia.hum..not that great even with a UN seat

LOL, go and travel the World? LMFAO.

 

[wayneL]

The only question Lexy in my mind, USA who's gonna push the red button first. That someone is going to press it, seems inevitable now.

 

[qldfrog]

LOL, go and travel the World? LMFAO.

Yes, to see what reality is even If I agree,travel to the China and Russia is now off the plan/ unwise to put it mildly.
Or you can bath in the belief of the US as the great democracy saving the world and a beacon of enlightenment and power.
Not 100% sure it ever was..who could ever ? But it is not improving that is for sure and I felt pity for that country as a whole last few times I was there.
But the burgers were good, and in Texas and a few places,with the move to. Latin nation, they have a small chance to remain relevant.
Think Mexico Poland turkey and Indian China for the power makers in a generation.
I believe this war is the final capitulation of the EU/western Europe, probably Russia but also the end of the states even if they are the economic short term winners.
Hopefully, we still have a quarter century ahead of us and we will see who was in the right. And if not,well who cares

 

[Sean K]

Yes, to see what reality is even If I agree,travel to the China and Russia is now off the plan/ unwise to put it mildly.
Or you can bath in the belief of the US as the great democracy saving the world and a beacon of enlightenment and power.
Not 100% sure it ever was..who could ever ? But it is not improving that is for sure and I felt pity for that country as a whole last few times I was there.
But the burgers were good, and in Texas and a few places,with the move to. Latin nation, they have a small chance to remain relevant.
Think Mexico Poland turkey and Indian China for the power makers in a generation.
I believe this war is the final capitulation of the EU/western Europe, probably Russia but also the end of the states even if they are the economic short term winners.
Hopefully, we still have a quarter century ahead of us and we will see who was in the right. And if not,well who cares

I’ve never thought about traveling. Thanks for the suggestion.