Ukraine War

[JohnDe]

I agree, the lines on the maps should be respected in this current age. But, European borders have been a moveable feast for a very long time prior to the end of WW2. Since then, there's hardly been a longer period of peace in Europe, probably due to MAD. There needs to be another major World wide treaty that states borders are set in stone and an international body upholds those boundaries. Hello UN. But, that's unlikely to happen until there's another significant bout of fisticuffs and a replacement of the UN is founded with more meaning and relevance to the 21st C.

Agreed, but how would an international body police & rectify issues without causing further hostilities?

Imagine if the UN sent in troops to the Russia - Ukraine border when Russian troops were massing. This could have forced Russian allies to side with Russia, and then test the UN's resolve. Would the citizens of countries of the UN approve?

there is no easy answer here, other than WWIII

 

[Sean K]

Agreed, but how would an international body police & rectify issues without causing further hostilities?

Imagine if the UN sent in troops to the Russia - Ukraine border when Russian troops were massing. This could have forced Russian allies to side with Russia, and then test the UN's resolve. Would the citizens of countries of the UN approve?

there is no easy answer here, other than WWIII

I don't think there's any way of preventing hostilities. Humans are humans, just another animal fighting for survival.

But, the UN and the Security Council is now well outdated. Japan, India and Germany should be now included and perhaps an African and Sth American country. So a group of ten, but no veto powers and a majority vote for action. Maybe you're correct, that would just cause teams to line up and WW3.

 

[Craton]

@Sean K
The UN certainly needs a shake up, especially the powers of veto, and yes, new member countries to reflect the changed world since it's inception.

Interesting snippet from that Wikipedia link (my bolds):

Supporters regard the veto as an important safeguard in international relations. Thomas G. Weiss and Giovanna Kuele called it "a variation on the Hippocratic Oath: UN decisions should do no harm."[49] Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the "profound wisdom" of the founders of the United Nations, referring to the veto power as the underpinning of international stability.[2] Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi lauded its "important role in checking the instinct of war."[3]

 

[Sean K]

Russia laying some more ground rules.

Medvedev is a poor historian however. Did the US win in Vietnam and Afghanistan? Or even Somalia, Iraq or Syria? Russia is the only one playing the nuclear card here which is disturbing.

 

[Craton]

Just like Russian TV and the rest of Putin's puppets, Medvedev is simply chest beating and scaremongering. Russians know only too well the outcome of going nuclear.
Betcha London to a brick, Putin doesn't want his little billion dollar palace, 39 times the size of Monaco, nuked out of existence. Nor for that matter, the vineyards not too far away.

This is a shorter vid re. Putin's secret hideaway one of eight places he calls home.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

From 19 Jan daily update from the Institute for the Study of War

"...Medvedev routinely makes hyperbolic and inflammatory comments, including threats of nuclear escalation, in support of Russian information operations that aim to weaken Western support for Ukraine and that are out of touch with actual Kremlin positions regarding the war in Ukraine.[23] Medvedev’s consistently inflammatory rhetoric may suggest that the Kremlin has encouraged him to promote extremist rhetoric that aims to frighten and deter the West from giving further military aid to Ukraine over fears of escalation with Russia or that he is simply continuing a pattern of extremist rhetorical freelancing...."

And defying defenestration. .

 

[SirRumpole]

Here is a video showing a USA designed small Tactical Nuke, you can see it’s not the kind of thing that would destroy a city.

But I have no idea how large Russia’s “Tactical” nukes are, or where they would deploy it.

Never realised you can pack a nuke into something that small.

Frightening stuff.

 

[mullokintyre]

The sanctions against Russia because of its Ukraine invasion, appear to have not achieved much.
According to Reuters

Jan 17 (Reuters) - Russia's current account surplus hit a record high in 2022, the central bank said on Tuesday, as a fall in imports and robust oil and gas exports kept foreign money flowing in despite Western efforts to isolate the Russian economy.
Russia's current account - a measure of the difference between all money coming into a country through trade, investment and transfers, and what flows back out - came in at $227.4 billion, up 86% from 2021.
Russian imports fell sharply last year amid an exodus of Western firms after the West imposed sweeping sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.
But the Kremlin has sought to replace revenues lost from its oil and gas exports to Europe with a pivot to China, India and other Asian countries.
Trade between Russia and China hit a record high of $190 billion last year, Chinese customs data showed.
As imports fell, Moscow's trade balance - the difference between total exports and imports - swelled to $282.3 billion in 2022, up from $170.1 billion the previous year.
The central bank said higher commodity prices throughout 2022 had helped push the current account higher, while imports slowly recovered in the second half of the year.

One can only "hope" that the inability of Russian oil co's to maintain the equipment will start to have an effect on the trade, but so far the sanctions have failed.

Russia's export revenues are set to come under fresh pressure in 2023 as Western and Japanese sanctions on Russian oil come into full effect.

That assumes of course that the existing get arounds, e.g. sending it to India from where it is onsold to western countries, do not continue to undermine the sanctions.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

The sanctions against Russia because of its Ukraine invasion, appear to have not achieved much.
According to Reuters

One can only "hope" that the inability of Russian oil co's to maintain the equipment will start to have an effect on the trade, but so far the sanctions have failed.


That assumes of course that the existing get arounds, e.g. sending it to India from where it is onsold to western countries, do not continue to undermine the sanctions.
Mick

The more stalling, the more time the EU has to get its $hit together, which will take some time, as Trump told them 5 years ago. ?

I guess all the multinationals, are trying to work out, how you keep the status quo, when the suppliers of the cheap labour go rogue. ?

When does the China/Russia coalition start and tell the multi nationals, we no longer accept your terms, we supply all your essential items, we decide the terms of trade.
Oh what a mess, yet the loonies still think they run the show and call out everyone else as being radicals.?
It wont happen overnight, but it will happen IMO, the meek wont inherit the world the bullies will, as usual.

 

[Value Collector]

Never realised you can pack a nuke into something that small.

Frightening stuff.

Yep, it only takes about 15 kg of nuclear material to make a bomb.

it’s also amazing to think that the devastation caused when the USA dropped the nuke on Japan in Hiroshima, was caused by a bomb containing only 64 kg of material, but only about 15 grams (yes grams not kilograms) of the material was converted into energy, a small increase in efficiency can make huge increases in power.

E=MC2 is a well known formula, but the most people don’t realise that it means Energy = Mass times the speed of light, and when you multiply anything by the speed of light you get a really big number, so 15 grams of mass multiplied by the speed of light is enough energy to destroy a city ?

 

[SirRumpole]

Yep, it only takes about 15 kg of nuclear material to make a bomb.

it’s also amazing to think that the devastation caused when the USA dropped to nuke on Japan in Hiroshima was caused by a bomb containing only 64 kg of material, only about 15 grams (yes grams not kilograms) of the material was converted into energy.

E=MC2 is a well known formula, but the most people don’t realise that it means Energy = Mass times the speed of light, and when you multiply anything by the speed of light you get a really big number, so 15 grams of mass multiplied by the speed of light is enough energy to destroy a city ?

Mass times the speed of light squared which makes it even bigger.

 

[Value Collector]

Mass times the speed of light squared which makes it even bigger.

Yep, that’s right.

weapons based on breaking nuclear bonds make the weapons based on chemical bonds look like child’s play.

 

[SirRumpole]

Yep, that’s right.

Well so far M.A.D. has been a pretty successful deterrent to their use.

Tactical nukes change the game, wiping out relatively small targets not cities so the incentive to use them is much higher.

 

[UMike]

I don't think there's any way of preventing hostilities. Humans are humans, just another animal fighting for survival.
.....

There is no survival in this. It is pure Ego driven.

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting article, lucky Trump isn't still in, because he would be getting blamed for profiteering, no ifs or buts. Lol

The war in Ukraine continues to rage on, but there's already one clear winner

Ukraine continues to need American weapons to hold out against Russia, and now a global military spending boom is set to further benefit the US arms industry. There are accusations of "profiteering", but is there any alternative?

www.abc.net.au

 

[Sean K]

Poland need Germany's support in this for the transfer of military technology. While it's only 14 tanks this is a significant escalation that Russia will be extremely unhappy with. Seems like it's only a matter of time before Belarus join in and then that opens the door for NATO boots on the ground, probably as 'trainers', although SF have probably been in there from the start. I don't think the Canadian SF training task group ever completely left the country.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

In the fog of war, its sometimes hard to evaluate the situation. This summary gives a fairly good overview of how the tide ebbed and flowed. The future remains bleak, however :

How the Battle for the Donbas Shaped Ukraine’s Success - Foreign Policy Research Institute

As the Russian-Ukrainian War enters the winter, Ukrainians have reason to be cautiously optimistic about the course of the war. Following a strategic

www.fpri.org

 

[mullokintyre]

In the fog of war, its sometimes hard to evaluate the situation. This summary gives a fairly good overview of how the tide ebbed and flowed. The future remains bleak, however :

How the Battle for the Donbas Shaped Ukraine’s Success - Foreign Policy Research Institute

As the Russian-Ukrainian War enters the winter, Ukrainians have reason to be cautiously optimistic about the course of the war. Following a strategic

www.fpri.org

I think your being a bit pessimistic there Donna.
Dresden was completely obliterated by allied bombing during WW2, but it was eventually rebuilt.
I was there about 8 years ago, and was impressed given the photographs of the post war period I saw.
I have not been to Hiroshima nor Nagasaki, both of which were flattened by US atomic bombs during WW2.
Both of these cities are now modern bustling metropolises.
Given the right attitude and assistance, I am sure the Ukraine cities could arise like Phoenix in the same way.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Uh oh. This was probably the case a long time ago, but China overtly supporting Russia like this is trouble. This really could turn to custard. No matter whether NATO caused this to happen, or if you're on Russia's team, or somewhere in between, it's trouble.

 

[bigdog]

Battle of Antonov Airport - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Battle of Antonov Airport​

The Battle of Antonov Airport, also known as the Battle of Hostomel Airport, was a military engagement which occurred at the Antonov Airport in Hostomel, Kyiv Oblast, during the Kyiv offensive of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On 24 February 2022, a few hours after President of Russia Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a "special military operation" in Ukraine, Russian troops of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) made an air assault on Antonov Airport with the objective of capturing it. The airport held strategic value as it was located less than 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) outside of the capital Kyiv, which would allow Russian troops to airlift more troops and heavier equipment to directly threaten the city.[6] However, the Ukrainian military responded with a counter-attack which encircled the unsupported Russian forces and repelled the initial assault.[14] The attack resumed on the next day with another air assault by the VDV combined with a ground assault by armored reinforcements coming from the Belarusian border, breaking through the Ukrainian defenses. The airport was then captured by the Russian forces.[14] Despite this, the unexpected Ukrainian resistance foiled the plans of a quick capitulation of Kyiv,[7] and the airport was too damaged to be used as a functional airstrip.[15]

The Antonov An-225 Mriya, the world's largest airplane, was destroyed in its hangar during the battle.

Back ground
Antonov Airport, or the Hostomel Airport, is a major international cargo airport located in the town of Hostomel, just at the outskirts of the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv. The airport was owned and operated by the Antonov State Enterprise, the Ukrainian state-owned aerospace and air defense company. The airport hosted the Antonov An-225 Mriya, the world's largest airplane[16][17] and was also used as an airstrip for the Ukrainian Air Force.

As Hostomel is located just outside Kyiv, around 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) away, and could give quick access to the capital, it was strategically important.[6] In the time leading up to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) obtained detailed information about Russian attack plans. CIA director William J. Burns travelled to Ukraine in January 2022, and informed the Ukrainian leadership that Russia intended to capture Antonov Airport for an airbridge, which would allow Russian forces to quickly move into Kyiv to "decapitate the government".[18] According to Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence, banker Denys Kireyev obtained information on 23 February 2022 from Russian sources that the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine would begin on 24 February and that Antonov Airport would be the site of the main attack of the invasion.[19] Analysts believed that President of Russia Vladimir Putin and the rest of the Russian leadership assumed that such a quick operation would throw Ukraine into disarray, resulting in the collapse of the Ukrainian military and allowing Russia to install a puppet government. Madison Policy Forum analyst John Spencer argued that this would have secured a military victory for Russia, albeit probably producing a massive Ukrainian insurgency.[20] However, the warnings by the CIA and Kireyev helped the Ukrainian military to prepare for an attack on Antonov Airport.[17][19][21] Regardless, the airport only held a small garrison of about 300 National Guard troops, as the remainder had been moved to the frontline in eastern Ukraine.[1]

Battle​

On 24 February 2022, around 05:30 am local time, President Putin announced a "special military operation" to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine. At around 8:00 a.m. a formation of 20 to 34 Russian helicopters arrived to secure Antonov Airport in Hostomel, a suburb of Kyiv, in an attempt to create an airbridge in which troops and equipment could muster less than 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) from Kyiv. The helicopter formation consisted of Mi-8s carrying potentially a hundred to several hundreds of Russian airborne troops escorted by Ka-52 attack helicopters. The paratroopers possibly consisted of the 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade[6][22] and/or 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade.[10] The air assault was captured on video by both civilians and soldiers. Flying low, the Russian helicopters made their approach from the Dnieper River and were immediately attacked by Ukrainian small arms fire and MANPADS. The Russian helicopters countered by deploying flares. Several Mi-8s were recorded taking hits and hitting the water.[12] At least one Ka-52 was shot down; its two pilots ejected.[23][6] The helicopters prepared the airborne landing by attacking the airport with rockets.[20][17] Some Ukrainian air defenses at the airport were precisely hit and destroyed during this initial attack; Ukrainian officials later concluded that an airport employee had been hired by Russian intelligence to reveal these positions.[1] Though the rocket bombardment successfully screened the landings, it failed to significantly weaken the Ukrainian defenses around the airport.[17]

Once disembarked, the Russian airborne units began to capture the airport.[6] The roughly 300 Ukrainian defenders were not well equipped, and included many draftees who had never seen combat. They could only offer limited resistance, though one national guardsman, Serhiy Falatyuk, successfully shot down a Russian helicopter with an 9K38 Igla, "boosting the spirits of" the conscripts. As fighting intensified, the Ukrainian air defenses became more effective. The helicopter of Russian commander Capt. Ivan Boldyrev was hit and forced to make an emergency landing.[1] As the Russian paratroopers landed in growing numbers and fanned out, the Ukrainian garrison was overwhelmed.[1][10] The Russian forces were thus able to secure the airport.[6] This success was due to the Ukrainian military being taken by surprise by the speed of the initial Russian attack, despite the preparations made after the CIA's warning.[17] The paratroopers then began preparing for the arrival of 18 Ilyushin Il-76 strategic airlifters carrying fresh troops from Russia.[24]

Despite overcoming the initial Ukrainian resistance, the paratroops continued to be engaged by local armed civilians and the 3rd Special Purpose Regiment.[10] The Ukrainians also began to bombard the airport with heavy artillery. Ukrainian Gen. Valery Zaluzhny recognized the danger of the Russian bridgehead at Hostomel, and ordered the 72nd Mechanized Brigade under Col. Oleksandr Vdovychenko to organize a counter-attack.[1] At the "critical moment" of the battle,[10] a large-scale Ukrainian counterattack was launched by the 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade of the National Guard,[6] backed by the Ukrainian Air Force.[10] Lacking armored vehicles, the Russian forces were dependent on air support to stave off the Ukrainian advances. Two Russian Su-25s were witnessed attacking Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian warplanes which survived the opening Russian missile strikes took part in providing air support for the National Guard units; these included at least two Su-24s and a MiG-29.[6] The Ukrainians were swift in rushing more troops to the airport to support the counter-attack. These reinforcements included the Georgian Legion,[8] and a unit of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces.[7] With the battle ongoing, the Russian Il-76s carrying reinforcements could not land; they were possibly forced to return to Russia.[24]

Ukrainian military units surrounded the airport and pushed back the Russian forces by the evening, forcing remaining Russian airborne troops to retreat to forests outside of the airport.[6][25][26][27][28] Georgian Legion commander Mamuka Mamulashvili later claimed that his men ran out of ammunition in the battle, whereupon he used his car to run over retreating Russian paratroopers.[8] Later, the 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade posted on their Facebook page an image of their soldiers celebrating the victory, while holding a Ukrainian flag riddled with bullet holes.[10]

The Antonov An-225 Mriya, the world's largest airplane, was at the airport at the time of the opening phase of the battle. It was initially confirmed to be intact by an Antonov pilot, despite the fighting.[29] However, on 27 February, a Ukroboronprom press release claimed that the Mriya had been destroyed by a Russian airstrike.[30] On 4 March, Russian state-owned television channel Channel One Russia aired footage showing that the Mriya had been destroyed.[31]

25 February 2022​

On 25 February 2022, Russian mechanized ground forces advancing from Belarus combined with another air assault by the VDV, took control of the airport after partially breaking through Ukrainian defenses at the Battle of Ivankiv.[22][32] Some of the armored vehicles were ambushed before reaching Hostomel, halting the reinforcements for a time, but nonetheless they entered the airport and helped to expel the Ukrainian defenders.[10] According to the Russian Ministry of Defence,[33] the capture came following an operation that involved some 200 helicopters. The figure of about 200 Ukrainian casualties and no casualties on the Russian side was announced.[11] This claim was met with skepticism, with Timur Olevsky, a journalist who witnessed the battle, outright refuting this claim.[6][22] Nevertheless, Russian ground forces established a foothold in Hostomel and began to man checkpoints inside the town. It was speculated that the Ukrainian defenders may have sabotaged the runway ahead of the advancing Russian ground forces.[6]

The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs initially denied that the airport had been fully captured by the Russian forces, stating that it had been "changing hands" and that the battle was ongoing. The Ministry of Internal Affairs also insisted that the Russian claim of the massive Ukrainian casualties was "an absolute lie",[34] while the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence declared that the airfield was too badly damaged to be used by Russian troops.[15] Later in the day, Ukraine confirmed that Russian forces were in control of the airport.[35]

Analysis​

Security analyst Andrew McGregor described the battle for Antonov Airport as "Russian Airborne Disaster". According to him, the initial Russian operation had aimed at securing an early access for the invasion forces into Kyiv to end the entire war within a day or two. Instead, Russian intelligence had failed to assess the actual concentration of Ukrainian defenders around the airport, and assumed only token defenses. As the initial landing force was too small to hold the locality, while the Russian military was unable to secure air transport for reinforcements as well as prevent Ukrainian counter-attacks, this led to the destruction of the first landing force. McGregor argued that the failure to take Antonov Airport and another airport at Vasylkiv at the invasion's start ended Russia's chance to bring the conflict to swift conclusion.[10]

Researchers of the Atlantic Council also argued that Ukraine's ability to defend the airport for two days "possibly prevent[ed] a rapid capture" of Kyiv by Russia.[36] Michael Shoebridge of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute argued that "the rapid strike was meant to paralyse the central government and demoralise the Ukrainian forces", but that this operation failed.[24] Royal United Services Institute associate director Jonathan Eyal described the initial Russian failure to take the airport as "a turning point" in the war. Journalist Patrick J. McDonnell stated that "Russia lost the battle for Kyiv with its hasty assault" on the airport.[20] Researchers Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans argued that the operation failed not just because of the initial Ukrainian defense at the airport, but also because of the Russian advance being stalled in the subsequent Battle of Hostomel. As a result, a large quantity of Russian troops and equipment was left waiting at Antonov Airport, subject to constant Ukrainian shelling. Mitzer and Oliemans expressed the belief that the battles for the airport and city of Hostomel "broke the back of the Russian assault on Kyiv".[17] Researcher Severin Pleyer suggested that the Battle of Antonov Airport showcased the Russian military's general failures during the invasion, including difficulties with main weapon systems, failures in logistics, coordination, and planning, as well as a lack of leadership and training. According to him, the fighting for the airport also highlighted that the Russian battalion tactical groups are ill-suited for warfare, as they hinder coordination and communication.[37] Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi later argued that the fall of the airport "played a negative role" for the Ukrainian forces, but that "artillery fire aimed at the runway and disembarkation sites delayed the landing significantly and frustrated the plan to capture Kyiv".[1]

Journalist Andreas Rüesch also argued that the Battle of Antonov Airport, alongside other battles during the invasion, disproved the myth of the extreme capabilities and near-invincibility of the Russian Airborne Forces, claims which had been extensively fostered by propaganda in Russia.[21] In reference to the first day of fighting, Pleyer described the battle as the worst defeat inflicted on the Russian Airborne Forces in recent history.[38]

Several days after the airport's capture, Russian forces were able to partially restore its landing fields for aircraft to use,[1] though the airport mainly came to serve as a hub to store equipment and house troops.[1][10]

Aftermath​

Despite the loss of the airport, Ukrainian forces continued to engage the Russian forces in Hostomel. Eyewitnesses recorded videos of allegedly a Russian tank column burning in the distance and Ukrainian Mi-24s firing rockets at Russian positions.[6] Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov claimed that Ukrainian forces deployed BM-21 Grad in Kyiv to bombard Russian forces occupying the airport.[39] Olevsky stated that he believes casualties for both Russian and Ukrainian may number in the hundreds.[40]

On 26 February 2022, Ukrainian forces claimed that the Ukrainian Alpha Group unit destroyed a column of Russian armored vehicles near Hostomel.[41][42] Sophia Fedyna [uk; ru], a member of the Verkhovna Rada, alleged that Russian spetsnaz captured some members of the Ukrainian National Guard and were wearing their uniforms. She asked Ukrainian citizens and fighters to speak only in Ukrainian to help identify Russian saboteurs.[43][44][45]

As of 27 February 2022, the airport remained under Russian control as clashes began to shift to the towns of Bucha and Irpin to the south,[46] where Ukrainian forces claimed to have halted the Russian advances, contesting Russian forces in Hostomel amid intense fighting.[47][48][49][50] On 27 February, the Security Service of Ukraine released an alleged intercepted conversation of Russian forces in Hostomel reporting casualties and requesting to be evacuated.[51][52] On the same day, Ukrainian forces bombarded the airport with artillery, and claimed to have destroyed Russian equipment, vehicles, and personnel.[53][54][55] The next day, a Russian military convoy stretching 40 miles (64 km) arrived at the airport in preparation for an assault on Kyiv.[56][57]

As of 28 March 2022, satellite imagery showed no Russian forces inside the airport.[58] On 29 March, Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Alexander Fomin announced a withdrawal of Russian forces from the Kyiv area,[59] including the abandonment of Hostomel Airport.[60]

By 2 April, Ukrainian forces had regained control of the airport following a large-scale Russian withdrawal along the Kyiv axis.[61] In their hasty retreat, Russian troops destroyed much of their own equipment, while other materiel was captured intact by the Ukrainians. In addition, other Russian equipment had been destroyed by Ukrainian artillery strikes before the withdrawal. Overall, Russia lost at least seven armoured fighting vehicles, 23 infantry fighting vehicles, three armoured personnel carriers, one anti-aircraft gun, two field artillery pieces, three helicopters, as well as 67 trucks, vehicles and jeeps at Antonov Airport.[17]