Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Ukraine War

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InsvestoBoy said:
Modern economies that are disconnected from the global economy are screwed.

If they want lives like Cuba (not that I support US sanction against Cuba) then they have "almost everything they need inside their own borders".

Otherwise, nope, it is not going to go well for them and it seems according to quite recent news that even they know this.


The list of impacts in the article is just staggering.
Click to expand...
well Russia for several years was playing the 'responsible world citizen' helping with nuclear proliferation treaties , the war on terrorism , trade agreements including cooperating alongside OPEC and WTO , including honoring sanctions against Iran , Cuba and North Korea

seems Russia has decided independence and the ability to select friends was more important than joining 'a global cooperative ' ( with mindless obedience ) maybe Putin couldn't bear to see all the improvement since the fall of the Soviet Empire go to waste

i grew up with both 'Iron ' and ' Bamboo' curtains and have seen then both lower and both starting to be raised again

just remember Russia ( as a major exporter of several commodities ) has not imposed many counter-sanctions yet ( or proactively ignored existing sanctions on several nations )

PS i was also alive for the Cuban Missile Crisis and the US attack on Grenada ( so to ME the US appears hypocritical ans sanctimonious )

AND just when you think all is going well there is Serbia , NATO is due some serious payback over that
 
divs4ever said:
well Russia for several years was playing the 'responsible world citizen' helping with nuclear proliferation treaties , the war on terrorism , trade agreements including cooperating alongside OPEC and WTO , including honoring sanctions against Iran , Cuba and North Korea

seems Russia has decided independence and the ability to select friends was more important than joining 'a global cooperative ' ( with mindless obedience ) maybe Putin couldn't bear to see all the improvement since the fall of the Soviet Empire go to waste

i grew up with both 'Iron ' and ' Bamboo' curtains and have seen then both lower and both starting to be raised again

just remember Russia ( as a major exporter of several commodities ) has not imposed many counter-sanctions yet ( or proactively ignored existing sanctions on several nations )

PS i was also alive for the Cuban Missile Crisis and the US attack on Grenada ( so to ME the US appears hypocritical ans sanctimonious )

AND just when you think all is going well there is Serbia , NATO is due some serious payback over that
Click to expand...
Sadly a bit irrelevant with the thread.
Where there is link is that now,there are 2 major independent economies Russia and China which will actually try their most to collapse the currently failing world order, economically as well,and can live outside the western sphere easily if as a block.
Painfully maybe but they will be warm,have food whereas the West will have BLM, metoo, FB but no heating and maybe no food.
The US has been leaving poisoned pills in recent history all over the world: to @divs4ever list, i would add Kosovo and Panama ..the local population has not the same story about Noriega than what you and I were given, that is sure.
Once worldwide crisis hits, the US will not find much support if broke..ohh except Australia ? and some EU countries.
In that context , i think we do not really consider the impact on the world economy of what is happening now in the EU.
People were worried by Greece?
Germany needs 5000 gas tankers to be build to replace the missing pipelines inputs,and terminals..not even considering where the gas would come from..and we start october.
German economy is collapsed.
Putin could be replace by another clown US puppet tomorrow that would change nothing.there is a reason the US blew the pipes...
And even if we are not really aware here Germany is the EU economy
Collapsing the EU economy in a 3 month period is a major economic event, a slow moving black swan.
We all have plenty of time to react.i somewhat doubt we can be saved by buying VAS or CBA.
Not that i do not appreciate that we are not in a much better situation here.
So buckets and buckets of reasons we should panic and why this could be much worse than the GFC
 
qldfrog said:
Sadly a bit irrelevant with the thread.
Where there is link is that now,there are 2 major independent economies Russia and China which will actually try their most to collapse the currently failing world order, economically as well,and can live outside the western sphere easily if as a block.
Painfully maybe but they will be warm,have food whereas the West will have BLM, metoo, FB but no heating and maybe no food.
The US has been leaving poisoned pills in recent history all over the world: to @divs4ever list, i would add Kosovo and Panama ..the local population has not the same story about Noriega than what you and I were given, that is sure.
Once worldwide crisis hits, the US will not find much support if broke..ohh except Australia ? and some EU countries.
In that context , i think we do not really consider the impact on the world economy of what is happening now in the EU.
People were worried by Greece?
Germany needs 5000 gas tankers to be build to replace the missing pipelines inputs,and terminals..not even considering where the gas would come from..and we start october.
German economy is collapsed.
Putin could be replace by another clown US puppet tomorrow that would change nothing.there is a reason the US blew the pipes...
And even if we are not really aware here Germany is the EU economy
Collapsing the EU economy in a 3 month period is a major economic event, a slow moving black swan.
We all have plenty of time to react.i somewhat doubt we can be saved by buying VAS or CBA.
Not that i do not appreciate that we are not in a much better situation here.
So buckets and buckets of reasons we should panic and why this could be much worse than the GFC
Click to expand...
DON'T forget India , India is trying the neutral , balancing act , AND if it can start cooperating in a meaningful way with Bangladesh , Sri Lanka , or Pakistan ( ideally all three )

India ( if it can form a sub-bloc ) can easily rival a healthy growing China

poisoned pills and you neglected Okinawa ???

am not 100% convinced it was the US , ( Norway is well down on the suspect list but it is there ) the UK is nuts enough to do that ( and they have all but formally declared war on Russia )

but it won't help the collective West they had already chosen economic suicide , now maybe pockets ( in the West ) will remove their current governments ( elected officials AND bureaucrats ) and go through a painful recovery process .. the UK for example gave themselves the tiniest chance with Brexit and then promptly squandered it

Putin will NOT be replaced by a puppet he might be replaced by a full-on hawk though ( the Russian parliament is awash with them ) .
in that case a nuclear winter is a high possibility ( North Korea will be among the first to contribute ) ( am thinking India and Pakistan will wait and watch for a while )

i was busy on other things during the GFC ( and just a poor working stiff with a recently deceased mother ) but thanks for the warning i should buy more popcorn ready for the education of my lifetime , maybe some more notebooks as well for the lessons worth recording ... maybe some extra matches for the camp-fire to pop the corn as well

and Albo has already supported the Globalist/climate change line , so there is no hope there


but this collapse was always coming , i thought it would be mid-2013 but now we get the extra pain of 8 years of cheap fixes

on the plus side ... i get to properly stress-test my portfolio strategy ( and see what i got right ( and wrong )

PS i was alarmed by Cyprus that could easily repeat .. here
 
divs4ever said:
DON'T forget India , India is trying the neutral , balancing act .........
Click to expand...
got that in one

1664596216287.png
 
divs4ever said:
i disagree , Russia has been incredibly patient so far , and the way things are going there is nothing they want ( except maybe the gold stockpiles ) in the West they have almost everything they need inside their own borders

send one and the West sends twenty , may as well launch them all and see how many ( NATO ) bases survive
Click to expand...
IMHO Russia went into Ukraine as it was planning to join NATO and start building nuke silos. Once the Ukraine issue is sorted, Russia will likely put more pressure and possibly even enter Romania and Poland, which have functional "defense" Aegis Ashore systems, which are capable of launching Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM) carrying nukes directly into Major Russian cities.

Its a repeat of 1960s Cuban missle crisis where CIA put in launch sites in Turkey and USSR put in launch sites in Cuba, only this time, ROmania/Poland and Ukraine are too close for comfort hence Russia has directly gone in to secure Ukraine.

It's unlikely Russia will launch any nukes at this stage as they have more than enough troops and can just slowly secure Ukraine after which the 2 nuke capable sites NATO has are just across the border and can be easily taken out by drones or missile strikes.

Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defence system in Romania completes scheduled update​


US MDA plans to turn on Polish Aegis Ashore site in June, after years of delay​


Missile defense chief ‘confident’ Poland’s Aegis Ashore ready in 2023​


1664600656498.png



​

 
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some think across to Odessa is likely , maybe as far as Transmistria ( part of Moldova ) Moldova seems to be going the diplomatic course if so it should be safe while Putin is in the captains chair ( that might change if Medvedev , or some others take charge )

one might wonder if Russia would go and help out Hungary , if requested ( because Hungary MIGHT consider leaving the EU , but more likely it would be booted out )

Russia MIGHT help out ( or at least sell advanced weapons to ) Serbia

personally i think Russia will take a year or two to rebuild ( and refurbish the factories ) in the newly acquired regions , and let the West weaken under the sanctions and civil unrest , and any reprisals China will inflict over their sanctioning , they will NOT have forgotten Huawei
 
now IF Russia were to go on the expansion path , i would think Japan would be a prime target .. warm-water ports and easy access to Asia , and South America

and a bit of revenge , North Korea would be very willing to be a piece of that payback ( and so might China )
 
divs4ever said:
now IF Russia were to go on the expansion path , i would think Japan would be a prime target .. warm-water ports and easy access to Asia , and South America

and a bit of revenge , North Korea would be very willing to be a piece of that payback ( and so might China )
Click to expand...

I believe russia will pause at Ukraine. Then try to get nato to decommission the Romania polish launch sites. After all no country wants nukes pointed at them so nearby.

Rest of the world should be going into a big recession and likely monetary reset with BRICS possibly surviving with new moscow gold standard and china's digital yuan.

In any case , we are very likely to see a much more divided geopolitical climate going forward.

And so long as the war is on, and rates are going up from inflation, it's gonna be very very bad macro climate for stocks.


Times like this there's no harm buffing up your precious metals portfolio as u never know when the war will blow up.
 
bluekelah said:
I believe russia will pause at Ukraine. Then try to get nato to decommission the Romania polish launch sites. After all no country wants nukes pointed at them so nearby.
Click to expand...

What are you talking about? There is no nukes in Romania or Poland pointed at Russia.

The launch sites you are talking about are defence sites, designed to shoot down Russian Nukes.
 
bluekelah said:
IMHO Russia went into Ukraine as it was planning to join NATO and start building nuke silos.

It's unlikely Russia will launch any nukes at this stage as they have more than enough troops and can just slowly secure Ukraine after which the 2 nuke capable sites NATO has are just across the border and can be easily taken out by drones or missile strikes.
Click to expand...
The annexation that just happened was the original plan IMHO, the plan was to secure a border buffer, taking the whole country was a best case scenario that would of resulted in a puppet govt and the current annexation we now have.

Why Ukraine? because everything else is off the table, Poland, Finland the Baltics etc are off the table as a full NATO response is assured, nuke sites are somewhat irrelevant, NATO has range and tech and Russia surrounded, it would be a very short war.
 
staying off thread, but trying to stick to facts

1664684879835.png


Russia has an estimated nuclear stockpile of 5977 warheads. On the strategic side (long-range weapons designed to attack an enemy directly on home territory), it has 1588 deployed – ready to go – of which about half are on land-based ballistic missiles, with the remainder on submarine-based ballistic missiles, or at heavy bomber bases. Others are in storage or reserve.

On the tactical side – what the NIP calls “non-strategic and defensive” – it’s harder to nail down a precise estimate. Various US intelligence agencies have put the number at between 1000 and 2000. If Putin did deploy a nuclear weapon, analysts agree it would likely be a tactical one.
 
So_Cynical said:
The annexation that just happened was the original plan IMHO, the plan was to secure a border buffer, taking the whole country was a best case scenario that would of resulted in a puppet govt and the current annexation we now have.

Why Ukraine? because everything else is off the table, Poland, Finland the Baltics etc are off the table as a full NATO response is assured, nuke sites are somewhat irrelevant, NATO has range and tech and Russia surrounded, it would be a very short war.
Click to expand...
i am thinking Russia will only absorb the areas where the majority is ethnic Russian , absorbing possibly resentful majorities , is often hard work ( and a long thankless task ) ( ask England about Northern Ireland )

Russia will want extra productive regions not areas riddled with insurgents and resistance group Chechnya should have taught them that

now if they leave a 'rump ' Ukraine it runs the risk of being a failed state , and that is just as bad as a hostile region in your own realm , now Poland has strengthened it's ties with Western Ukraine while Hungary and Romania have historic ties with areas of Western Ukraine

would Russia condone the unwanted part of Ukraine to be carved up by the neighbouring EU nations , and solve the 'poverty trap ' issue
 
Value Collector said:
What are you talking about? There is no nukes in Romania or Poland pointed at Russia.

The launch sites you are talking about are defence sites, designed to shoot down Russian Nukes.
Click to expand...

Aegis Ashore systems in Romania and Poland are supposed to be "defensive" missile sites loaded with missiles that can intercept ICBMs. They use the Mark 41 Vertical Launching System (Mk 41 VLS) that are used on nuclear subs and destroyers

Aegis Ashore | Missile Threat

Aegis Ashore is the land-based variant of the Navy’s Aegis Weapons System and the centerpiece of Phases II and III of the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA). The system incorporates land-based versions of the various components used on Aegis ships, including the deckhouse, AN/SPY-1 radar...
missilethreat.csis.org missilethreat.csis.org

However, they are also fully capable of launching Tomahawk missiles which can be loaded with nuclear warheads.
en.wikipedia.org

Tomahawk (missile family) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

If you had been following the Russian troop buildup in Feb before the invasion you would have come across this article

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

AFAIK after the Cuban missile crisis in the 1960s, USA had decommisioned all nuclear missles in Turkey. Currently there are no nuclear missiles directly pointed at Russia from Europe.

Hence this is a sticking point for Russia as its the closest nuclear response NATO has, they can just swap some tomahawks with armed warheads into the Aegis launch system and away they go into Russian Cities. Of course NATO can still fly bombers, use their ship/submarine based tomahawks to nuke Russia, but those are not as quick or easy as pressing a button at those launch sites.

At the same time Russia does not have any direct nuclear response capability as they have already withdrawn from Cuba, even had to send their nuke capable bombers back to Russia.
 
divs4ever said:
i am thinking Russia will only absorb the areas where the majority is ethnic Russian , absorbing possibly resentful majorities , is often hard work ( and a long thankless task ) ( ask England about Northern Ireland )

Russia will want extra productive regions not areas riddled with insurgents and resistance group Chechnya should have taught them that

now if they leave a 'rump ' Ukraine it runs the risk of being a failed state , and that is just as bad as a hostile region in your own realm , now Poland has strengthened it's ties with Western Ukraine while Hungary and Romania have historic ties with areas of Western Ukraine

would Russia condone the unwanted part of Ukraine to be carved up by the neighbouring EU nations , and solve the 'poverty trap ' issue
Click to expand...
The point of all this is to try and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and allow NATO a strategic military foothold in Ukraine (and putting nuclear weapons even nearer to Russia..

Important things were already happening before this , like the Ukrainian power grid, they were actually in the midst of switching from Russian to European grid and running tests in FEb but Russia then invaded and now its a mess.

Most Ukrainians speak and understand russian, after all they were part of the USSR. Even Kyiv was the ancient capital of the original Russian tsardom/empire. Ukraine is also rich in farmland and resources, I do not think putin would mind taking over the whole country just to stop it falling into NATO hands.
 

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