Ukraine War

[qldfrog]

PS: as I did not want to join the keyboard warrior brigade, i had put that thread on ignore a while back but I guess it switched back on or i typed it back in?..I will reinstate the ignore, not denying you a reply Sean, so my apologies not personal, but a bit like Covid jabs, no point preaching if people have made their mind
have a great week end..

 

[Sean K]

definitively, the US started the process under Obama with the whole Biden's son saga and put Russia back to the wall.
Nothing like that would have happened under Trump but the democrats and lobbies got into power..I do not say elected... and were back to their initial plan (remember Russia/Clinton relations?)

Putin f.up majestically as he was expecting to be welcomed as a liberator....
But the US was ready..A PR puppet was in place (trained actor)
Putin just forgot most of the pro Russians had already moved to the Russian sided Crimea/Dosnek... and now the war..which was initially a civil war had moved up one level...a bit like Yugoslavia in its time if you remember?
We bombed Serbia to let Kosovo turn into a muslim terrorist training ground, Putin thought he could do similar and push out the pro west Ukrainians over.
this is becoming history and is the start of WWIII (cold or hot, the US will decide probably within months) ..nicely timed with the way to get out of an economic deadend.
That's my view.
I have no certitude except truth is definitively not what our own propaganda pushes on us.
Neither is it Kremlin's story we can agree there too;And getting hard to get unbiased views.
If you see otherwise, how do you interpret the cuban crisis?Was Kennedy wrong? I do not think so

There is always a line in the sand not to push..even between friends, Nato did push it , was no friend and got the expected push back. Simple
In the meantime, for this political game, people are dying, atrocities are rampant..on both sides
And absolutely deluded Europe is paying the price but Poland andTurkey are gaining power, even the US a bit...while China is laughing all the way to its cash register.
As for ukraine as a nation state..hum..as good as south sudan in term of legitimity, the poorest place in europe well below Romania and was getting worse and worse even before the war=> 3 times poorer than Russia per citizen..says it all..., overthrown of elected governments, worst corruption in Europe which made EU membership impossible...pre war..but now all good .Provider of sex slaves and human traficking, and soon exporter of US military weapons to the world mafia, key importer of stolen European goods and luxury German cars .
A delight..but the inhabitants did not deserved to be slaughtered from both sides to fulfill the US puppet handlers wishes.
Just waiting for the first tactical nuke next..God bless us..the horrors to come...

It will take me a while to sort through this, but I will over the weekend.

 

[Telamelo]

Ukraine war follows decades of warnings that NATO expansion into Eastern Europe could provoke Russia

Lost in the outrage over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the fact that many in the West have long warned that widespread NATO expansion into Eastern Europe could spark just such a conflict.

theconversation.com

Many predicted Nato expansion would lead to war. Those warnings were ignored | Ted Galen Carpenter

It has long been clear that Nato expansion would lead to tragedy. We are now paying the price for the US’s arrogance

www.theguardian.com

 

[Telamelo]

PS: as I did not want to join the keyboard warrior brigade, i had put that thread on ignore a while back but I guess it switched back on or i typed it back in?..I will reinstate the ignore, not denying you a reply Sean, so my apologies not personal, but a bit like Covid jabs, no point preaching if people have made their mind
have a great week end..

Suggest no need to put anyone on ignore (kind of rude to do so imo) as everyone is entitled to their opinion & to express it on a public forum such as ASF - differing views should be encouraged & discussed in a respectful/peaceful orderly manner as it adds to the substance/quality of the overall discussion.

 

[qldfrog]

Suggest no need to put anyone on ignore (kind of rude to do so imo) as everyone is entitled to their opinion & to express it on a public forum such as ASF - differing views should be encouraged & discussed in a respectful/peaceful orderly manner as it adds to the substance/quality of the overall discussion.

No, i put people on ignore wo remorse but not on this subject and Sean is not on my ignore
The whole thread was on ignore .still is actually : i checked yesterday so not sure how i even managed to type in?
But i do not want to ping pong on this subject.
Covid jab/Covid was directly putting my life at risk, Ukraine does not directly even if my family left in Europe could find itself wiped out so not exactly unaffected.

 

[Telamelo]

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/close-ally-calls-on-vladimir-putin-to-strike-london-first-in-wwii-on-russian-media/news-story/b4025f801f9966ffa35e3595aaf79553

 

[qldfrog]

It will take me a while to sort through this, but I will over the weekend.

Please do for your own interest but i will try to avoid this thread.
Please read my above post cf ignore of the thread..not trying to dismiss you etc.
I was carefully checking this area previously because:
I am western European,my home town was 30km from aa major nuke airforce base and i spent my youth séeing Mirage plane with a A-Bomb under ,breaking the sound barrier above my house so deeply aware from young age of the Warsaw pact thread.
Visited Hungary,met with Polish people before/post wall collapse and crossed twice the iron curtain .
I was still in Europe when the wall fell.
Lastly,just before Trump election, i did a tourist trip to St Petersburg,train..ing from Helsinki.
St Petersburg being in my opinion the most beautiful historic town on earth..visit if you...well when you... can..
Vienna, Versailles and Paris all in one spot.
Was impressed by the dynamism of Russia there, the culture still booming,no woke crap, proud of their religion,full churches,and no risk of being slaughtered in the street for being an infidelh.
At the time of the visit, Hillary was already promising to nuke Russia at every election speech and we were praying it would not happen during my stay?
The week after,we were back in NY and the comparison was dire.i like NY but it was tired and i got the feeling the US had lost its way..
Anyway,was not surprised by US moves when democrats were back,i had read H Kissinger . (Who knows better than us)... passages about crossing the line against Russia more than a year ago.
This is where i get my thought process from
Add G Friedman's view on geopolitics in Europe and i can see the Poland and Turkey play ,and it is clear to everyone that China is enjoying and benefiting greatly toi.

There was no surprise when the tanks moved in, and i do not need ABC or Fox/RT "fact checkers" to analyse this.
And now this is war and dirty, which is far too nice an euphemism, abhorrent and sickening would be better..
Have all a great weekend but i will try to abstain from the thread

 

[Sean K]

I've watched quite a few of these on YouTube and this one provides a pretty good background to why Russia has invaded Ukraine.

(there's some crap at the end about watching his other stuff on Curiosity)

 

[againsthegrain]

definitively, the US started the process under Obama with the whole Biden's son saga and put Russia back to the wall.
Nothing like that would have happened under Trump but the democrats and lobbies got into power..I do not say elected... and were back to their initial plan (remember Russia/Clinton relations?)

Putin f.up majestically as he was expecting to be welcomed as a liberator....
But the US was ready..A PR puppet was in place (trained actor)
Putin just forgot most of the pro Russians had already moved to the Russian sided Crimea/Dosnek... and now the war..which was initially a civil war had moved up one level...a bit like Yugoslavia in its time if you remember?
We bombed Serbia to let Kosovo turn into a muslim terrorist training ground, Putin thought he could do similar and push out the pro west Ukrainians over.
this is becoming history and is the start of WWIII (cold or hot, the US will decide probably within months) ..nicely timed with the way to get out of an economic deadend.
That's my view.
I have no certitude except truth is definitively not what our own propaganda pushes on us.
Neither is it Kremlin's story we can agree there too;And getting hard to get unbiased views.
If you see otherwise, how do you interpret the cuban crisis?Was Kennedy wrong? I do not think so

There is always a line in the sand not to push..even between friends, Nato did push it , was no friend and got the expected push back. Simple
In the meantime, for this political game, people are dying, atrocities are rampant..on both sides
And absolutely deluded Europe is paying the price but Poland andTurkey are gaining power, even the US a bit...while China is laughing all the way to its cash register.
As for ukraine as a nation state..hum..as good as south sudan in term of legitimity, the poorest place in europe well below Romania and was getting worse and worse even before the war=> 3 times poorer than Russia per citizen..says it all..., overthrown of elected governments, worst corruption in Europe which made EU membership impossible...pre war..but now all good .Provider of sex slaves and human traficking, and soon exporter of US military weapons to the world mafia, key importer of stolen European goods and luxury German cars .
A delight..but the inhabitants did not deserved to be slaughtered from both sides to fulfill the US puppet handlers wishes.
Just waiting for the first tactical nuke next..God bless us..the horrors to come...

I agree about Kosovo, this was a big mistake and injustice

 

[Sean K]

I think the China-Taiwan issue is going to play out in much the same way as this war.

There's a mixed history of ownership.
Linked Ethnicity.
It's a strategic position controlling gateways.
Surrounded by natural resources.
Competing blocks for influence - West v East.
Competing political systems - Democracy v Dictatorship.

I think there's going to be a very similar outcome to this in East Asia.

China will eventually try to take Taiwan by force.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I think the China-Taiwan issue is going to play out in much the same way as this war.

There's a mixed history of ownership.
Linked Ethnicity.
It's a strategic position controlling gateways.
Surrounded by natural resources.
Competing blocks for influence - West v East.
Competing political systems - Democracy v Dictatorship.

I think there's going to be a very similar outcome to this in East Asia.

China will eventually try to take Taiwan by force.

I must admit that your summary is compelling, however if I were ole Xi, this what I would do.

• Continue to threaten Taiwan and develop weapons and alliances in the South China Sea and Pacific to keep the US distracted.
• Allow Putin to become exhausted and Russia to be neutralised by NATO and the US.
• Invade Siberia and Russian East across the Amur river and annex Siberia and the Kurils with Sakhalin Oblast.

Eastern Russia is wasted on the Russians who are feckless and operating as they were under the Romanovs over 100 years ago. It is a feudal, sparsely populated area adjacent to Chinese northern provinces wherin vodka and thuggery is the currency as opposed to a thriving large Chinese population in what used be Manchuria.

There is bad history going back over a thousand years between China and Russia, and China has a huge population who could exploit the riches of Eastern Russia better than has been the case under Czarist or USSR control.

You heard it here first.

gg

 

[Sean K]

I must admit that your summary is compelling, however if I were ole Xi, this what I would do.

• Continue to threaten Taiwan and develop weapons and alliances in the South China Sea and Pacific to keep the US distracted.
• Allow Putin to become exhausted and Russia to be neutralised by NATO and the US.
• Invade Siberia and Russian East across the Amur river and annex Siberia and the Kurils with Sakhalin Oblast.

Eastern Russia is wasted on the Russians who are feckless and operating as they were under the Romanovs over 100 years ago. It is a feudal, sparsely populated area adjacent to Chinese northern provinces wherin vodka and thuggery is the currency as opposed to a thriving large Chinese population in what used be Manchuria.

There is bad history going back over a thousand years between China and Russia, and China has a huge population who could exploit the riches of Eastern Russia better than has been the case under Czarist or USSR control.

You heard it here first.

gg

I have not read of a scenario of China taking the eastern part of Russia before, as part of their grand strategic plan.

I heard it here first.

SK

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I have not read of a scenario of China taking the eastern part of Russia before, as part of their grand strategic plan.

I heard it here first.

SK

IT is quite an interesting part of the world. A quick read through the Russo-Japanese War 1905, which exhausted the Russians and led eventually to the Russian Revolution, on Wikipedia will give you a taste of the tensions in that part of the world.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Internet is full of clips of trains loaded with tanks bound for the west, drawing down the RU strategic reserve that had been held east of the Urals. And leaving the Amur / Russian Far East border more exposed. Apart from a few cities and regional centres, most towns are bleeding population. Despair set in when the Soviet subsidies were removed.

Take out a bridge or 3 across those broad Siberian rivers and the whole area would be vulnerable.

 

[Sean K]

Internet is full of clips of trains loaded with tanks bound for the west, drawing down the RU strategic reserve that had been held east of the Urals. And leaving the Amur / Russian Far East border more exposed. Apart from a few cities and regional centres, most towns are bleeding population. Despair set in when the Soviet subsidies were removed.

Take out a bridge or 3 across those broad Siberian rivers and the whole area would be vulnerable.

Maybe this is all part of Xi's grand strategic plan, or at least an opportunity. Divert Russia to the West, and the EU and US to the East, while he gets set to take Taiwan with limited opposition.

The missing link is India, who control the SLOC from the Pacific to Indian Oceans. China can't wage a major war without controlling that route. It can be shut off at a whim by India.

This is what I think is China's failure. Geography. They are trapped.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Maybe this is all part of Xi's grand strategic plan, or at least an opportunity. Divert Russia to the West, and the EU and US to the East, while he gets set to take Taiwan with limited opposition.

The missing link is India, who control the SLOC from the Pacific to Indian Oceans. China can't wage a major war without controlling that route. It can be shut off at a whim by India.

This is what I think is China's failure. Geography. They are trapped.

From China's viewpoint, there is no rush to take Taiwan. It will be taken back one day.

China and India are the big winners atm. from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. No commitment to either side, cheaper oil and gas and a world diverted from their internal "fixing" of ethnic problems.

They can throw rocks at each other up in the Himalayas to keep the warriors happy.

When you are ahead, why change the game, just develop your bluffing abilities.

gg

 

[Sean K]

From China's viewpoint, there is no rush to take Taiwan. It will be taken back one day.

China and India are the big winners atm. from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. No commitment to either side, cheaper oil and gas and a world diverted from their internal "fixing" of ethnic problems.

They can throw rocks at each other up in the Himalayas to keep the warriors happy.

When you are ahead, why change the game, just develop your bluffing abilities.

gg

Agree, China has a grand strategic plan, dated back decades.

But, Xi has put a time frame on taking Taiwan back. I think it's this decade.

Unless he has oil and gas from Russia, it can't be accomplished and sustained.

I think the Ukraine war has solidified the problems of globalisation, particularly with energy security.

I envisage much more self reliance, or very clear and trusted strategic logistic partners going forward, and at the moment, the dictators don't have them.

Global energy supply is still in our hands. Just.

Germany nearly stuffed this equation up, and winter may still put Putin and Xi in control. Trouble.

 

[sptrawler]

From China's viewpoint, there is no rush to take Taiwan. It will be taken back one day.

China and India are the big winners atm. from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. No commitment to either side, cheaper oil and gas and a world diverted from

gg

Absolutely, once the U.S has removed any perceived intellectual property from mainland Taiwan it is just another small island near China.

Same as when Australia's minerals have been removed it is just another pile of worthless dirt in the middle of nowhere.

The issue for us IMO, we think we are something special, that deserves the blessed lifestyle we have, because we are special, we're different.

We are just fortunate enough to live here, it's a shame so many take it for granted, rather than as a blessing IMO.
When the minerals are gone, we are just a dust bowl, full of type 2 diabetes and an education system that is in a constant decline down the international ladder.
Yep Australia, you're standing in it.
I'm just struggling to understand why we see ourselves as so special, I just can't pin down what stands out at the moment, that makes us so entitled.

 

[Smurf1976]

I think the Ukraine war has solidified the problems of globalisation, particularly with energy security.

I think there's also a broader shift likely to flow from that.

One once side of that debate are a seemingly unlikely bunch of allies, that being the likes of engineers, scientists, military strategists and environmentalists, have warned of this threat for decades. Given the absolute importance of energy, having supply in the hands of others has long been seen as an unacceptable risk.

On the other side of that debate are economic and political ideologies of free trade and mutual interdependency and so on.

Suffice to say at this point it would be a brave person who argued for the latter.

Energy is the most crucial resource since without that everything else ceases to function and does so rapidly but ultimately the same concept applies to anything. Depending on others for essential goods or services comes with a very real risk of being backed into a corner.

 

[Value Collector]

I think there's also a broader shift likely to flow from that.

One once side of that debate are a seemingly unlikely bunch of allies, that being the likes of engineers, scientists, military strategists and environmentalists, have warned of this threat for decades. Given the absolute importance of energy, having supply in the hands of others has long been seen as an unacceptable risk.

On the other side of that debate are economic and political ideologies of free trade and mutual interdependency and so on.

Suffice to say at this point it would be a brave person who argued for the latter.

Energy is the most crucial resource since without that everything else ceases to function and does so rapidly but ultimately the same concept applies to anything. Depending on others for essential goods or services comes with a very real risk of being backed into a corner.

I think the long term trend towards globalisation is not going to stop, this is just an example of the two step forwards one step back way humans stumble forward.

Depending on “others” might be seen as a risk, but over time the group of people we label as “others” shrinks.

For example there would be no suggestion that free trade among the UK is totally rational, but the UK is made up of 4 countries that used to be staunch enemies, and even each of those countries is made up of fiefs and vassals that warred with each other, and before that it was broken up in even smaller tribal groups.

My point is that over time who we consider “US” is growing and “them” is shrinking, this is going to be the force that grows globalisation. But like everything it’s not always steady growth.