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Ukraine War

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What are you lot doing exactly?
Thoughts and prayers are doing a lot are they.

It's a discussion. Not moralising the rights and wrongs of peoples positions.
How many of you have donated so far?
Or joined the Ukraine war effort?

Nobody agrees with the war. But it's not good vs bad guys. It's elitists waging war using poor people that don't want to be there. I don't like it. Don't support what Putin is doing. But reality is I'm also doing sweet FA about it. And you lot probably are doing even less. So don't pretend like you are.

Talking sht on here ain't killing anyone. Just realise your own damn positions though. Not only doing nothing, but being uppity flogs about it
 
moXJO said:
What are you lot doing exactly?
Thoughts and prayers are doing a lot are they.

It's a discussion. Not moralising the rights and wrongs of peoples positions.
How many of you have donated so far?
Or joined the Ukraine war effort?

Nobody agrees with the war. But it's not good vs bad guys. It's elitists waging war using poor people that don't want to be there. I don't like it. Don't support what Putin is doing. But reality is I'm also doing sweet FA about it. And you lot probably are doing even less. So don't pretend like you are.

Talking sht on here ain't killing anyone. Just realise your own damn positions though. Not only doing nothing, but being uppity flogs about it
Click to expand...

I’m speaking out against it, letting everyone know that Putin & Russia are war mongers and that I want all politicians to yell and scream at Putin to STOP and leave the Ukraine.

I am also donating, some of my friends are donating and one of our friends speaks Ukrainian and has created a gofundme page.

Everyone should speak up against this war, the more we all shout the bigger we become.

People don’t need to go and fight to show their support for Ukraine ?? People just need to do what they can, every bit counts.
 
JohnDe said:
Your theory is full of holes.

Firstly you assume that Russian leadership was concerned enough about all countries being affected by a economic collapse that Putin took it upon himself to send in the Russian military to create a war, so as to stop the economy collapsing across the globe.

Putin hates the west, it’s all documented, he’d enjoy watching the world economy while Russia continued to sell oil & gas.

Yes WWI was mostly Europe, that’s because different countries at different times had been at war with each other for hundreds of years, the war to end all wars was created because various countries had agreements in place to support any that went to war.

WWII saw Japan come in and try take over one part of the world while Germany concentrated on the other.

Nothing to do with a country trying to stop a world economic collapse. Any suggestion that those wars and the current one is some crazy idea to help the world economy is a poor conspiracy theory.
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that depends if you believe the 'Mr. 5 percent ' theory where Putin allegedly owns 5% of every business that is worth-while in Russia

now Putin doesn't brag about that but the West alleges that while calling him an oligarch and sanctioning the businesses owned by associates

SO he either doesn't care about Russia and it's economy because he is totally isolated in his ivory tower OR he has his finger on the pulse just by looking at his monthly income reports

and Putin MIGHT hate the West but he is less vocal about it than many of his opponents ( about him )

and speaking of 1930's Japan did you ever notice how much territory it occupied while still happily trading with the West ( including Australia ) i never saw news reports of protests in Australia about Japan occupying Korea or Mongolia , and there was limited resistance funded by the US of the Chinese resistance to Japanese occupation ( which is why China has the current attitude )

and sorry to be a party pooper but the BANKERS believe war is a wonderful remedy to economic woes

i saw my school mates return from Vietnam and also know a couple of blokes stuffed up from the 'liberation' of East Timor , and the Borneo affair , i definitely don't like wars as much as politicians and bankers

now last i heard the Russian parliament is populated by a MAJORITY of ex-Russian intelligence personnel ( KGB , GRU , etc etc etc )

in fact Medvedev is the highest profile Russian politician without a military background ( but none dare call Russia a military junta )
 

US, allies under pressure to perform airlifts; Civilians 'held hostage' as Putin continues press in Mariupol, Kyiv​


The US and its western allies are facing pressure to mount an airlift in Ukraine to save civilians still trapped in cities being bombed by Russian troops.

Douglas Feith and John Hannah, who served as defence officials in the administration of George W Bush, are among those calling for negotiations with Moscow to secure air corridors for Ukrainian civilians, and to deliver supplies of food, water and medicine.
“Having refused to establish a no-fly zone, President Biden needs more options to deal with enormous and urgent humanitarian needs. We propose an international airlift, organised and supported by the US,” they said in The Wall Street Journal.

Global pressure for the airlift as “an acceptable alternative to a no-fly zone” should be mobilised, from the UN to the Vatican, and other religious leaders recruited to increase pressure on President Putin to spare civilian lives.

“Instead of threatening to shoot down Russian planes, a humanitarian airlift would force Russia either to consent or threaten to shoot down planes from non-threatening countries full of humanitarian goods,” Feith and Hannah wrote.

– Dow Jones
Click to expand...

Vaguely reminds me of the Marshall Plan & the symbolic Molotov Plan
 
JohnDe said:
Vaguely reminds me of the Marshall Plan & the symbolic Molotov Plan
Click to expand...

Perhaps your thinking of the Berlin airlift 1948-9 ? When Soviet Russia blockaded East Berlin to try and force the West to accede to it's demands.

www.defense.gov

The Berlin Airlift: What It Was, Its Importance in the Cold War

June 26 marks the 70th anniversary of the beginning of the Berlin Airlift, America’s first major test of resolve during the Cold War and one of the largest humanitarian aid missions in history.Never
www.defense.gov
 
JohnDe said:
Vaguely reminds me of the Marshall Plan & the symbolic Molotov Plan
Click to expand...

There's a concept known as the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), that was instituted in response to the Rwandan Genocide after the international community stood by while 100s of 1000s of Tutsi's were killed in 1994. My current avatar is me in Rwanda in 94.

The UN could invoke this this if they had the will, but Russia and China are permanent members of the Security Council, so...

There seems to be quite a few examples of crimes against humanity during the invasion of Ukraine so far. Let's hope it doesn't get worse and civilians are allowed to escape. Or at least, not held hostage, deliberately killed, raped, etc. All of which seems to have already occurred.

This is a bit of a test of the UN and the Security Council at the moment. What's the ostensible World governing body going to do about it? I think their hands are tied when there's a veto power. Maybe time to expand the permanent members and you just need a majority vote for action.
 
This looks untidy.

Disclose article.

In The Oz today:

The dirty secret of Russia’s Made in France military​

A French investigative news site has revealed that France has secretly armed the Russian military between 2015 and 2020, in breach of sanctions created after Russia’s annexure of Crimea.

Disclose is a not-for-profit non-government organisation engaged in investigative journalism. The NGO reported on March 14 that classified documents that had come into its possession showed the French government had issued 76 export licences to Russia for the export of almost $AUD250 million dollars of military equipment.

The sales have been confirmed in a public report to the French parliament which details the dollar amount of French military exports to Russia. The classified documents Disclose has come from the Secrétariat Général de la Défense et de la Sécurité Nationale and details the nature and quantity of military equipment exported to Russia.

The sales appear to be in breach of a European Union embargo on arms exports to Russia from member countries established in 2014.

The claims challenge the orthodox reporting of a Europe united against Putin’s aggression. The prevailing analysis is that the US, the European Union, and NATO have been as one in establishing hard economic sanctions on Putin’s Russia as well as stepping up arms supplies to Ukraine and commitments to increase military spending across NATO members, including long term recalcitrant, Germany.

In December 2013, Russian troops entered the Donbass region of Ukraine in support of Russian separatists. In early 2014, Russia forcibly annexed Crimea and in July of that year, Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over Ukrainian airspace, killing all 283 passengers and 15 crew, including 38 Australians.
 
Sean K said:
This looks untidy.

Disclose article.

In The Oz today:

The dirty secret of Russia’s Made in France military​

A French investigative news site has revealed that France has secretly armed the Russian military between 2015 and 2020, in breach of sanctions created after Russia’s annexure of Crimea.

Disclose is a not-for-profit non-government organisation engaged in investigative journalism. The NGO reported on March 14 that classified documents that had come into its possession showed the French government had issued 76 export licences to Russia for the export of almost $AUD250 million dollars of military equipment.

The sales have been confirmed in a public report to the French parliament which details the dollar amount of French military exports to Russia. The classified documents Disclose has come from the Secrétariat Général de la Défense et de la Sécurité Nationale and details the nature and quantity of military equipment exported to Russia.

The sales appear to be in breach of a European Union embargo on arms exports to Russia from member countries established in 2014.

The claims challenge the orthodox reporting of a Europe united against Putin’s aggression. The prevailing analysis is that the US, the European Union, and NATO have been as one in establishing hard economic sanctions on Putin’s Russia as well as stepping up arms supplies to Ukraine and commitments to increase military spending across NATO members, including long term recalcitrant, Germany.

In December 2013, Russian troops entered the Donbass region of Ukraine in support of Russian separatists. In early 2014, Russia forcibly annexed Crimea and in July of that year, Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over Ukrainian airspace, killing all 283 passengers and 15 crew, including 38 Australians.
Click to expand...
I believe the French according to the article below were fulfilling orders and contracts signed prior to Europe deciding on a post-Crimea embargo on arms to Russia.

I had not heard of Disclose before.

uk.style.yahoo.com

Ministry stresses that French arms sales to Russia are not in violation of EU sanctions

The French Defence Ministry denies that France violated sanctions imposed by the European Union by continuing to sell military equipment to Moscow after it annexed Crimea in 2014. Investigative journalism NGO Disclose reported on 14 March that the French government approved around 152 million...
uk.style.yahoo.com uk.style.yahoo.com

gg
 
On RN Drive, Andy Park spoke to two Aussies who took an incredible journey.

Last week, Roger Scott and Daniel Russell left their homes in Warsaw, Poland, and drove to Lviv, a city filled with refugees fleeing the Russian invasion.

The mission was simple: deliver valuable supplies and transport refugees out of the country. But it didn't go quite as planned.

They set off in the morning, optimistic and with plenty of packed sandwiches. But when they entered Ukraine that evening, they were confronted with harrowing scenes.

In just a few days, the fallout from the war had dramatically worsened.

"The scenes there were post-apocalyptic; people everywhere, 10,000 minimum," Roger says.

"They were covering the highway, crowding around fires, children crying. They were all women and children because the men aren't allowed to leave Ukraine.

"It was just desperation and pure chaos. I've never seen anything like it."

The pair finally entered the city just before martial law curfew. They couldn't deliver the generator they'd brought, so stashed it in a safe place and got on with delivering supplies.

"We took radios, tactical belts, gloves, a GPS device," Roger says.

"[Defence groups] are also asking for things like night vision [goggles], knee pads, elbow pads, and even just military socks and t-shirts."

They were so late that the refugees they'd promised to collect had gone home, so Roger and Daniel drove around the empty city picking them up.

It took 13 hours to cross the Polish border. Roger, who speaks Russian, tried to keep the travellers entertained.

Finally, they made it back. Now, they're planning what their next trip might look like.

"It's hard to sit here and do nothing," Roger says. "It seemed like the right thing to do, and I really don't regret it."
Click to expand...

www.abc.net.au

RN Drive 16.03.2022 - ABC listen

With intelligent and thought-provoking analysis, RN Drive goes behind the headlines to give you original insight into the world you live in. Keep up to date with federal politics, current affairs, arts, culture and the stories that are making Australia talk.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
Email message from my health provider -

We, as a team, are heartbroken by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. We continue to stare in disbelief at the news and wonder what we can possibly do to help.
Many Ukrainians now find themselves in countries where they don’t speak the language, and it must be unsettling for them not to be able to communicate. We want to help change this.
All Ukrainians affected by the ongoing conflict can now access a free Busuu Premium membership for three months, including all languages via the app or desktop. We hope this will enable them to pick up the basics of their host country’s language without paying for the service.
Busuu prides itself on our community of learners all across the world, so we’re reaching out and asking you to share this important message with anyone you think needs it right now.
While it’s a small gesture, we want to give those who have been displaced the chance to feel a little more comfortable wherever they find themselves.
Below you will find more information on how Ukrainians can sign up and get access to all our 13 language courses, including Polish, English, German and Spanish.​
We believe in unity through languages and hope that peace comes quickly to those affected,​
original.png

Bernhard Niesner
CEO and Co-Founder​
 

Russia’s war is creating corporate winners and losers​


MOST MULTINATIONAL companies can live without Russian customers. Living without Russian commodities would be much harder. On March 15th the European Commission announced new economic constraints on Russia, including a ban on exports of European luxury items and cars—the definition of an essential good is, after all, in the eye of the oligarch. But the announcement also included a ban on steel products from Russia. More such restrictions on Russian exports may come.

Companies are struggling to contain the fallout of Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine. The first response of those with business in Russia was to rush for the exit. About 400 have announced their withdrawal from Russia, according to a tally by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld of Yale, cowed by legal and reputational risks. Executives now face a different, bigger challenge. This concerns not their business within Russia but supply chains that extend beyond it, and other knock-on effects. As the war continues, it is creating corporate winners and losers, as well as enormous volatility.

There are two factors that make the shock to supply chains particularly difficult for firms to manage. The first is the breadth of commodities produced by Ukraine and Russia. The two countries together supply 26% of the world’s export of wheat, 16% of corn, 30% of barley and about 80% of sunflower oil and sunflower-seed meal. Ukraine provides about half the world’s neon, used to etch microchips. Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer, second-largest producer of gas and top exporter of nickel, used in car batteries, and palladium, used in car-exhaust systems, not to mention a large exporter of aluminium and iron. Even without formal sanctions on most of Russia’s commodities, Western traders are increasingly trying to avoid them, wary of legal risks.

The second complicating factor is the market’s extraordinary swings. The price of Brent crude surged to $128 a barrel on March 8th, then dipped below $100 a week later as China announced new covid-19 restrictions and investors anticipated the interest-rate increase by America’s Federal Reserve on March 16th. The London Metals Exchange halted trading of nickel on March 8th after its price shot past a record $100,000 a tonne. When trading resumed on March 16th, a technical issue prompted the exchange to suspend trading once more.

20220319_WBC650.png

The overall American stockmarket is back roughly to where it was before the invasion. But a few industries benefit from the turmoil, from armsmakers to cable news and the lawyers who help firms comply with sanctions. The biggest winners are commodities firms, especially outside Russia (see chart).
A stockmarket index of American frackers, which benefit from high oil prices and European demand for liquefied natural gas, climbed by a fifth between February 23rd to March 10th. It remains 9% above its pre-invasion level, despite the decline in oil prices. Mining firms are, as a group, likewise performing well, buoyed by higher metals prices, as are steelmakers beyond Russia. The share prices of US Steel and Tata Steel, with headquarters in Pittsburgh and Mumbai, respectively, have climbed by 38% and 11% since the eve of the invasion. Bunge and ADM, two big listed traders that specialise in rerouting flows of grain, have outperformed the market, too.
The war does not affect all commodities firms equally. Rio Tinto, a big miner, announced on March 10th that it would abandon a joint venture with Rusal, a giant Russian aluminium producer. Rocketing electricity costs resulting from the soaring price of natural gas, 40% of which Europe gets from Russia, have forced some Spanish steelmakers to cut output.
Pricey inputs are a more universal problem for sectors further up the value chain. Just as they were preparing to lift off as pandemic travel restrictions are relaxed, airlines got slapped with rocketing fuel costs. Yara International, a Norwegian fertiliser-maker, said on March 9th that the cost of natural gas had prompted it to cut production at two European factories.

Carmakers, which have not yet recovered from the pandemic’s disruptions to supply chains, face fresh problems. Volkswagen and BMW, two German giants, have cut production in Europe as they seek out new manufacturers of the harnesses that bundle miles of electrical wires in their cars to replace out-of-action Ukrainian suppliers. Morgan Stanley, a bank, reckons that the 67% jump in nickel prices before trading stopped represents an increase of about $1,000 to the input costs of the average American electric vehicle.

Gabriel Adler of Citigroup, another bank, notes that carmakers have so far been successful in passing their costs on to consumers. Indeed, Tesla, America’s electric-car superstar, this month raised prices; Elon Musk, its boss, complained in a tweet about “significant recent inflation pressure in raw materials & logistics”. Such pricing power is enviable. But it has its limits. At some point people will not be willing to absorb the increases.

In some cases, consumers are beginning to balk. American food firms have been raising prices for months to offset higher costs of energy, transport and ingredients. However, they have been unable to raise them quickly enough to protect margins. The need to negotiate prices with grocers limits their ability to demand higher ones whenever they desire. And grocers, in turn, are under pressure from shoppers. Robert Moskow of Credit Suisse, one more bank, notes that consumers have in the past year been willing to stomach pricier food. But the war’s impact on commodities prices comes at a moment when their patience is wearing thin, especially in America, where inflation has hit a 40-year high.

“Every food company must be getting a little nervous that they are pushing the consumer too far,” says Mr Moskow. As the costs of inputs continue to climb, it looks increasingly likely that companies will be forced to choose between compressing profits and depressing demand.

Our recent coverage of the Ukraine crisis can be found here
Click to expand...
 
One of the principles of war in Army doctrine is the element of surprise. For eg, you might decide to leave it to the last minute for an artillery bombardment, which usually indicates an attack is imminent.

Putin has managed to fail on this one on two accounts.

First, he amassed forces on the borders of Ukraine and in Belarus for months, pretending they were part of exercises. However, when he started sending down force logistic units including hospitals he telegraphed his intent. Plus, we do have satellites now which could see where every single tank was located and in which direction they were going to go due to the terrain. Don't discount what the Five Eyes were delivering to Ukraine on signals intelligence of exactly what Russia was up to.

The second thing he cocked up with the element of surprise was that he forgot to tell all his troops he had amassed on the border that they were actually going to war and not going on a training exercise. This was presumedly kept secret to them because if they knew they were about to attack their fellow Slavs (I understand they're all the same ethnic group now) they might not have been so keen. This meant they were very unprepared at the lower levels of command and especially in the airforce, who didn't seem to be aware they were going to war at all.

So, it's starting to look like an own goal for Putin. I'm sure he's surprised Ukraine hasn't rolled over.
 
Sean K said:
One of the principles of war in Army doctrine is the element of surprise. For eg, you might decide to leave it to the last minute for an artillery bombardment, which usually indicates an attack is imminent.

Putin has managed to fail on this one on two accounts.

First, he amassed forces on the borders of Ukraine and in Belarus for months, pretending they were part of exercises. However, when he started sending down force logistic units including hospitals he telegraphed his intent. Plus, we do have satellites now which could see where every single tank was located and in which direction they were going to go due to the terrain. Don't discount what the Five Eyes were delivering to Ukraine on signals intelligence of exactly what Russia was up to.

The second thing he cocked up with the element of surprise was that he forgot to tell all his troops he had amassed on the border that they were actually going to war and not going on a training exercise. This was presumedly kept secret to them because if they knew they were about to attack their fellow Slavs (I understand they're all the same ethnic group now) they might not have been so keen. This meant they were very unprepared at the lower levels of command and especially in the airforce, who didn't seem to be aware they were going to war at all.

So, it's starting to look like an own goal for Putin. I'm sure he's surprised Ukraine hasn't rolled over.
Click to expand...
Also the logistics issues destroyed the momentum of the invasion, giving the Ukraines time to get off the back foot and throw a few punches themselves.

The German panzer invasion of France in WW2 is a great example of a force maintaining momentum and forcing the enemy onto the back foot.

I was speaking to a couple of guys that took part in the Iraq invasion in 2003, and they mentioned that the momentum of the invasion was so important that they were ordered to maintain the speed of their advance to their objective even if it meant ignoring enemy along the way, they were literally told to avoid/break contact with any enemy forces they bump into and not even return fire unless their vehicles windscreens were actually being hit with bullets until they got deep inside Iraq to pre designated targets.

Allowing themselves to be distracted with skirmishes along the way would have killed the element of surprise and given the enemy time to protect the actual main targets.
 
Sean K said:
One of the principles of war in Army doctrine is the element of surprise. For eg, you might decide to leave it to the last minute for an artillery bombardment, which usually indicates an attack is imminent. Putin has managed to fail on this .. on two accounts.
First, he amassed forces on the borders of Ukraine and in Belarus for months, [and] telegraphed his intent. Plus, we do have satellites now which could see where every single tank was located and in which direction they were going...
The second thing he cocked up with the element of surprise....

So, it's starting to look like an own goal for Putin.
Click to expand...
and a third account:
he's just like the other autocratic monomaniacs, looking for scapegoats, this time among the Russian population. A recent speech, sounding like every other tyrant:

"Of course, they [the West] will try to bet on the so-called fifth column, on traitors — on those who earn their money here but live over there. Live, not in the geographical sense, but in the sense of their thoughts, their slavish thinking," he told government ministers, three weeks into Russia's war with Ukraine.
Click to expand...
"Any people, and especially the Russian people, will always be able to distinguish the true patriots from the scum and the traitors and just to spit them out like a midge that accidentally flew into their mouths.
Click to expand...
"I am convinced that this natural and necessary self-cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion, and readiness to meet any challenge."
Click to expand...

Sounds a bit like " Ten years of corrective labour camps without the right of correspondence".
 
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Russia is resorting to long range tactics as they are having difficulty getting armour and troops close to Kyiv.
Here's part of the reason:
 
A blast from the past. Truth stranger than fiction ?

Trump Putin and Rex Tillerman in Christmas 2016

 

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