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U.S. to crash?

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The US is crashing, it's only the afterglow of continuous QE that keeps it going, but you would never know it by the way 'retail' analysts measure economic recovery success by - the Dow Jones index?

Another measure - AAPL Apple - headline numbers look good but nearly all of it was from a one of to some stupid company buying 3 years worth of iPhones - hitting an air pocket soon?

Employment - those that know how the stats are calculated know that at best it's a guesstimate - there is a huge fudge factor put in as well as other fudges eg birth/death ratio etc - they probably actually lost a million jobs! The real unemplyment rate is closer to 12%, the total unemployed rate is closer to 18% - straight from the Feds mouth here - http://research.stlouisfed.org/pdl/458

This bloke knows the numbers and he's confused -


US Railfreight is going down

http://railfax.transmatch.com/

Negative real wage growth.

House prices firmly continuing down on the second dip.

Baltic Dry Index is plunging - 1 shipping line is actually paying a customers fuel costs just to use their ships!

Then the Euro zone, China & of course the Japan!

Only those 'glass half full' types are blind to reality, but will have the biggest dissapointement when economic gravity, ie reverting to humanities mean, finally arrives?
 
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I'm buying a lot of gear out of the US as well as it's better quality and very cheap. I worry more about Australian industry then the US crashing. US policy is more dynamic and allows quicker change in direction coupled with a cheap workforce with even more coming out of Mexico at even cheaper rates and boosting the demographic. I'd bet on Aus turning to $hit before the US.
 
Americans back to their bad old ways OR need credit just to survive?

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumers increased their debt in December by a seasonally adjusted $19.3 billion, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. The increase is just below November's $20.4 billion pace which was the biggest gain in a decade. Monthly debt rose by a 9.4% pace in December, after a 9.9% pace in the prior month. The increase in consumer credit in December was much larger than expected by Wall Street economists. All types of credit gained in the month. The non-revolving category of debt, such as auto loans, personal loans, and student loans, jumped $16.6 billion, or 11.8%, in December. This is the largest amount since November 2001. Credit-card debt increased by $2.8 billion, or 4.1%, in the month. For the year, consumer credit rose 3.7%, the largest increase since 2007.
 
Think the attitude of the average Yank is we are stuffed so lets go out with a bang spend up and not repay, beside the banks are caught up in Robo signing B/cards as well as mortgage's now they are offering those under water up to 30k incentive to sell for what they can get just to get the bad loan's off their books.
 
drsmith said:
It will be interesting to see if that trend continues beyond what appears to be a normal seasonal decline.
Click to expand...

Good pick up Doc . Although......

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Just when you thought that it might be safe to get back into the stock market...
The fly in the ointment this time: The Dow Jones Transportation Average is seriously lagging.
This is potentially worrisome from at least two different points of view. First, the Dow Theory, the oldest market timing system still in widespread use today, keys off the behavior of the Transports and the Dow Jones Industrial Aver. Joint new highs are considered evidence of a healthy bull market, while divergences are considered a warning sign of trouble.

And this -

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Corporate insiders are now selling their companies’ stock at a rate not seen since late last July.
That’s a scary parallel indeed, since that late-July spike in selling came just days before one of the more painful two-week periods in the stock market in years.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-insider1.html?mod=topnav_2_3023

Primary Bear Market - Stage 1 - Distribution

Just as accumulation is the hallmark of the first stage of a primary bull market, distribution marks the beginning of a bear market. As the "smart money" begins to realize that business conditions are not quite as good as once thought, they start to sell stocks. The public is still involved in the market at this stage and become willing buyers. There is little in the headlines to indicate a bear market is at hand and general business conditions remain good. However, stocks begin to lose a bit of their luster and the decline begins to take hold.
​

 
Sorry, there's just too many disparities with what's going on in the markets and underlying data, so one more chart to confirm that the DJIA at least has gotten way ahead of itself??

 
 
Jeremy Grantham has been mentioned quite a few times here on ASF, usually associated with bubbles.
He has now added the word recession to his bubble warnings.
From AFR
Grantham is definitely a pessimist, but even pessimists occasionally get things right.
Mick
 
wayneL said:
1. 2007 probably wasn't.

2. Where are we now?
Click to expand...
1. I bought in 2007 too, I buy every year since 1996, Not being A great market timer, I pretty much steadily kept investing the whole way through, I buy every year, but things kept getting cheaper for a while, then they eventually started rising again.

2. Feb 2024

I am buying every Thursday this year, and next year, and the year after that and every other year for the foreseeable future, If things get cheaper for a while, great news.
 
1/ Expect market returns

2/ Ummm yeah, but that doesn't quite address the nuance of the question, but I'm sure you know that.

Why Thursdays?
 
oh dear, missing post #78. anyway, reflects more on whoever than whatever
 
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